Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-7-1); Moneyline Upsets (0-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (22-27-1); Moneyline Upsets (5-4)
Week 5 Review: Well after 4 straight weeks of going 5-5 against the spread, something had to give eventually. Something did give in week 5, and not surprisingly what it gave way to was me having my first really awful week of the season. I only won 2 games against the spread and even my moneyline upset pick turned out bad, as Purdue lost to ND by 17. I picked USC to cover the 25.5 point spread against Oregon State and they ended up losing by 6. I also picked Wake to cover the 15.5 point spread against Navy and they lost by 7. In short, I found out mediocrity is way better than sucking.
Week 6 Preview: After 4 weeks of mediocrity and then one terrible week, I figure I’m due for a big week. I’m going with my first instincts this week with no real strategy in mind. My only real theory at this point is that trying to find additional logic to base my predictions on has no positive impact on how well I do, and if anything only makes my predictions less likely to be accurate.
Wednesday
Game 1: Louisiana Tech (+22.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: Both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Broncos have won 6 straight over LT and won the last 2 in Boise by 41. Boise State has gone 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as home favorites. Meanwhile, LT is 3-11 against the spread in its last 14 games as road underdogs.
Thursday
Game 2: Pittsburgh (+13.5) @ South Florida
Pick: South Florida covers
Comment: I’m sorry but Pitt’s performance against Syracuse last week has led me to believe that they are just as mediocre as their loss at home to Bowling Green in week 1 suggested. South Florida finally bullied an opponent the way that they should have last week, beating NC State by 31 on the road. That gives me enough confidence in them to believe that they’ll whip Pitt at home on Thursday night.
Game 3: Memphis (-4) @ UAB
Pick: Memphis covers
Comment: I got almost nothing here other than that I thought Memphis would be better than they have been so far this year and I expected UAB to be as bad as they’ve looked this season. UAB had won 7 straight over Memphis before losing on the road last season and the Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as road favorites (and they haven’t been favored on the road since 2005). And yet, I’m going with Memphis to cover just because.
Game 4: Oregon State (+12) @ Utah
Pick: Oregon State beats the spread
Comment: Okay, I know that Oregon State is coming off perhaps the biggest win in their program’s history, and I know that they aren’t going to catch Utah sleeping. I also know that Utah is very tough at home and that so far this season the Beavers have lost to Stanford and gotten pummeled by Penn State in their only 2 games on the road. Still, I think Oregon State will hang around long enough to stay within 12 points of the Utes.
Friday
Game 5: Cincinnati (-3) @ Marshall
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comment: Marshall is 2-0 at home this season and is 4-1-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2005 but the Bearcats beat the Herd 40-14 at home last season and they have won 7 of their last 9 on the road. Plus, Cincinnati just ought to beat Marshall by more than 3 regardless of location.
Game 6: BYU (-28) @ Utah State
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: The Cougars are coming off a bye week and they won their last 2 games by a combined score of 103-0. BYU has won 8 straight over Utah State which is only 125 miles or so from Provo. The Aggies just snapped an 8 game home losing skid by beating Idaho in week 4 but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as home underdogs. The Cougs have won 5 straight on the road. But the biggest thing is that Utah State lost by 48 at home to Utah in week 3, so I have to think that BYU can beat them by more than 28.
Saturday
Game 7: BC (-8.5) @ NC State
Pick: NC State beats the spread
Comment: Mostly just a hunch here. BC has played a very light early schedule as usual, going 3-1 in 4 games at home where they are 20-2 in their last 22 games. Their 3 wins have been lopsided but they haven’t beaten anyone of consequence and they lost to GT at home. They are only 7-6 in their last 13 games away from home. NC State has looked awful this season in every game except for week 4 when they beat ECU in OT. The Wolfpack is normally decent at home and Tom O’Brien will be looking to beat his former team after they drubbed him 37-17 last year. I think NC State will keep within a TD.
Game 8: Penn State (-12.5) @ Purdue
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: I said that I would go with PSU until they let me down and last week they pushed with a 14 point win over Illinois at home. I think it’s worth giving them the benefit of the doubt and this week it will be impossible for them to push. PSU has struggled on the road in recent years but they have won 3 straight against Purdue, including the last one on the road. The Boilermakers are normally tough at home and they’ve played well at home so far this season but they’ve dropped 9 of 11 to PSU. I don’t think 12.5 is too big of a spread for PSU to cover.
Game 9: Florida (-24.5) @ Arkansas
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: Well Florida’s loss at home to Ole Miss last week was stunning and they have not been anywhere close to as good as advertised so far this season. However, I think the Hogs are as good of a team for the Gators to get well against as any in college football right now. 24.5 points is a lot when you consider the offensive problems that the Gators have had and the fact that they allowed 31 points last week. But before last week Florida had scored at least 26 points in each of their first 3 games and hadn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 10 points in any game. This week they face an Arkansas team that won 28-24 over Western Illinois at home and 28-27 over ULM in Little Rock, and then lost 49-14 at home against Bama and 52-10 on the road against Texas. Florida should win this one by a similar score regardless of the location, especially given the added motivation of wanting to show that last week’s loss was a fluke.
Game 10: Oklahoma (-27) @ Baylor
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: The new #1 team in the country is 17-0 all-time vs. Baylor and under Bob Stoops the Sooners are 9-0 against the Bears, winning by an average score of 42-12. Baylor is a much more competitive team at home usually and this season they are 2-1 in Waco but they lost their opener to WF at home, 41-13. Baylor has been much better the last 3 weeks but I think that even if they play well against Oklahoma they could easily still lose 38-10 or something.
Moneyline Specials
I don’t feel like there is a greater amount of good moneyline games this week than usual but staying with the theory that I’m due for some great luck, I decided to go with 4 moneyline upsets this week.
FAU over MTS: Florida Atlantic is a 3 point underdog on the road against Middle Tennessee State this Tuesday. Yes, that’s right, Tuesday Night Football. I’m mostly just playing a hunch here, as FAU has looked much weaker than expected and MTS has looked surprisingly strong. However, while MTS played the big boys tough (beating Maryland at home and nearly upsetting Kentucky on the road) they have lost by double digits in each of their 2 games against SBC competition. FAU on the other hand has been unable to compete in any of their 3 games against teams from BCS conferences, but they won their only game so far against lesser competition. I think FAU will be great in conference just like they were last season.
FSU over Miami: FSU is a 1.5 point underdog on the road against archrival Miami this weekend. Just a hunch here. Regardless of how good these teams are this game is always close. I don’t think the Canes have as much of a homefield advantage at Dolphin Stadium and they are just 6-5 in their last 11 home games (5-5 in their last 10 against FBS teams). Miami took a step back last week with their loss at home to UNC, while the Noles managed their first win of the season over an FBS team, beating Colorado by 18 in Jacksonville. I think this one will go down to the wire and I just have a hunch that the Seminoles will end up on top.
Illinois over Michigan: Illinois is a 2.5 point underdog at Michigan this week. I didn’t expect Michigan to beat Wisconsin at home last week but they came from behind and pulled off the upset. Illinois is 2-2 and their 2 most impressive games have been their 2 defeats, losing by 10 against Missouri in St. Louis and losing at PSU by 14 last week. I don’t think the Wolverines will make it back to back wins over decent teams.
Vandy over Auburn: Vandy is a 4 point underdog at home against Auburn this Saturday. I’m going completely against my gut reaction here. Going into the season I thought Vandy would go 0-8 in the SEC and Auburn would go 7-1 and win the West. Plus, I still have to believe that Auburn is much more talented than Vandy. Also, it’s not like Nashville is an intimidating place to play. Still, so far this season Vandy has beaten a team from the MAC by 21 on the road; beaten a team from Conference USA by 17 at home; beaten South Carolina by 7 at home; and beaten Ole Miss by 6 on the road. Auburn has won by 34 over a team from the SBC at home; beaten a team from Conference USA by 14 at home; beaten Mississippi State, 3-2, on the road; lost by 6 at home to LSU; and beaten Tennessee by 2 at home. Knowing what we do about Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, I would say that to this point Vandy has been much more impressive. So I’m going to call for the Dores’ magical season to continue.
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