Tuesday, September 9, 2008

The College Football Blog: Week 3 Betting Lines



Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (0-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (10-10); Moneyline Upsets (2-1)

Week 2 Review: I thought that I had done well in week 1 and I ended up going just 5-5; last week I thought I had done really badly and I ended up 5-5. My moneyline upset pick, Temple, lost in overtime to UConn by 3 points.

Week 3 Preview: Well there are certainly plenty of great games to choose from this week. After going .500 in each of the first two weeks, this shapes up as a huge week for me as well. Here are my 10 games plus a couple of moneyline upsets.

Thursday
Game 1: UNC (+4.5) @ Rutgers
Pick: UNC beats the spread
Comment: I thought about taking UNC straight up but they were 0-6 on the road last season and they are 5-22 on the road since 2003. I still think it will be decided by a field goal or less though.

Friday
Game 2: Kansas (+3.5) @ USF
Pick: USF covers
Comment: I believe this one will be very close as well but I give the edge to the home team, and I’m think more of a 4-7 point win than a 1-3 point win for USF.

Saturday
Game 3: Cal (-14) @ Maryland
Pick: Cal covers
Comment: I know this is a long trip for Cal but they have beaten Michigan State by 7 at home and Washington State by 63 on the road, while Maryland has beaten Delaware by 7 at home and lost to Middle Tennessee State by 10 on the road.

Game 4: Iowa State (+13.5) @ Iowa
Pick: Iowa State beats the spread
Comment: Iowa State has beaten the spread the last 4 years against Iowa: in 04 they were 22 point road dogs and lost by 7; in 05 they were 9 point dogs at home and they won by 20; in 06 they were 14 point road dogs and they lost by 10; in 07 they were 17 point dogs at home and they won by 2.

Game 5: East Carolina (-12.5) @ Tulane
Pick: East Carolina covers
Comment: Tulane managed to stay within two TD’s of Bama on the road, but EC just beat WV by 21 so I have to take them over Tulane by at least 13 points.

Game 6: Michigan (Pick) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Michigan wins
Comment: I think both of these teams suck but I think Rodriguez is a better coach and the Wolverines have played 2 games in this new system now and I like them to win this one.

Game 7: Penn State (-27) @ Syracuse
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: Come on. PSU has won by 56 over a Division I-AA team and by 31 over Oregon State; Cuse has lost by 20 to Northwestern and by 14 to Akron. Am I missing something here? Penn State should win by 7 touchdowns.

Game 8: Oklahoma (+20) @ Washington
Pick: Oklahoma covers.
Comment: I originally had Texas covering the spread as 24 point favorites over Arkansas but the game was rescheduled because of Hurricane So and So.

Game 9: Ohio State (+10.5) @ USC
Pick: USC covers
Comment: I’m basing this one largely on Ohio State’s performance in the last two National Championship Games, on their performance without Beanie Wells last week, and on USC’s performance in big games over the last few years.

Game 10: Wisconsin (Pick) @ Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State wins
Comment: Just a hunch here.

Moneyline Specials

I didn’t see a lot of options for moneyline upsets this week. I ended up finding 2, but these upsets won’t be that surprising even if they do occur.

Baylor over Washington State: Baylor is a 2.5 point dog at home in this battle between the worst team in the Pac-10 and the worst team in the Big XII. My only thought here is that Washington State has lost by 26 and by 63 in two games in Washington, so I don’t know like their chances of winning in Texas.

Memphis over Marshall: The Tigers are 3.5 point dogs on the road. My only theory here is that Memphis is a better team than they have shown the last two weeks and is due for a win.

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