Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-10); Straight Up (12-4)
Season: Vs. Spread (20-25-2); Straight Up (32-15)
Week 3 Review: Last week was my worst week yet against the spread. On the positive side, I had my best week of the year predicting winners. I did not do a good job predicting the games with large spreads. Buffalo and the Giants won but didn’t come close to covering as big favorites, the Chargers easily covered a big spread against the Packers, and the Patriots…well, let’s just say that they did not quite cover the 12.5 point spread against the Dolphins.
Week 4 Preview: One thing I like about this week is that the 2 teams that I’m most confused about in the entire NFL (New England and Miami) do not play. On the other hand, there are a number of tricky games this week between teams that have been inconsistent so far. And there are some real question marks this week due to some injuries that could significantly influence things. I’m playing things pretty cautiously this week. In 6 different games I have favorites winning the game but not covering.
Sunday’s Early Games
Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Falcons beat the spread.
Comment: Perhaps I’m going too much with my heart on this one. The Falcons hammered the Lions and Chiefs but both of those games were at home and the Lions and Chiefs may be the two worst teams in the NFL. In their one road game against a decent team, the Falcons lost by 15 and it could have been worse. But to me, there’s a big difference between the Falcons playing the Bucs in Tampa, and the Falcons playing the Panthers in Charlotte. The Falcons are 5-5 against the Panthers over the last 5 years and they have gone 3-2 against the Panthers in Charlotte. The Falcons have won their last 2 games in Charlotte. The Panthers won tight games at San Diego and against the Bears in the first two weeks of the season, but last week they got beat 20-10 by a previously winless Vikings team. Carolina is just 30-35 at home this decade, and 14-26-2 against the spread when favored at home. The Falcs are 27-23-2 against the spread as road underdogs this decade. I’m not hopeful enough to call for a Falcons win but I think they’ll keep it close.
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: The Broncos are 3-0 and they have been perhaps the most impressive team offensively during the first 3 weeks of the season, scoring at least 34 points each week. However, in their last 2 games, both at home, they have surrendered at least 32 points. They won their last 2 games by a total of 3 points, and didn’t cover in either contest. 9.5 points is a lot to cover on the road and the Broncos are due for some bad luck. But I just can’t go with the Chiefs to stay within 10 points of Denver, regardless of where the game is. Arrowhead Stadium is usually one of the most difficult places for a visiting team to win in the entire NFL, but the Chiefs have lost 6 straight at home, including a 23-8 drubbing at the hands of the Raiders a couple of weeks ago. KC has scored a total of 32 points this year while allowing 78 to the offenses of the Brady-less Patriots, the Raiders, and the Falcons. Last year the Broncos were down, but they still managed to win at Arrowhead for the first time in years. I think the Herm Edwards train wreck continues in earnest this week.
San Francisco (+5) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Niners beat the spread.
Comment: I have been impressed by the Niners so far this season. I have been less impressed by the Saints. New Orleans will be back at home this week but they’re just 27-37 at home this decade, and 15-28-1 against the spread as home favorites. The Niners have already won at Seattle this year, and Mike Martz’s offense has put up point totals of 33 and 31 in the last two games respectively. The Saints have allowed point totals of 29 and 34 in their last two games respectively. I think the Saints will win because they are a better team but I think it’ll be close.
Arizona (+1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Cardinals pull off the upset.
Comment: To me, the Jets have been one of the most disappointing teams over the last 2 weeks, if not the absolute most disappointing team over the last 2 weeks. After eking out a win in Miami the first week, they have been completely handled at home by the Brady-less Pats, and been unable to compete on MNF in San Diego. Favre looks depressed and he’s hobbling on a gimpy ankle. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won big over the Niners and Dolphins, and then lost by 7 on the road at Washington last week. They’ve been competitive each week and have scored at least 17 points in each game while never allowing more than 24 points in any game. Traditionally the Cards are horrendous away from home, but I just have a feeling that this might be the year that Arizona finally overcomes some of their history. Plus, I have zero faith in the Jets right now.
Minnesota (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: These teams are similar in many ways. They both have strong defenses, solid running games, good kickers, and good offensive lines. They have also both made recent QB changes for the better. Minnesota got off the schnide last week with a solid home win over Carolina, but the Titans have been impressive all 3 weeks so far this year. They are 3-0 and 3-0 against the spread. Actually, they’ve beaten the spread easily each week, winning by 7 as a 3 point underdog in week 1, winning by 17 as a 1 point favorite in week 2, and winning by 19 as a 4.5 point favorite last week. I like the Titans to take care of the spread again this week.
Green Bay (+1) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Packers pull off the upset.
Comment: The Bucs have been a significantly better team at home this decade while the Packers have been a significantly weaker team on the road this decade. The Packers were handled by the Cowboys at home last week but I still think they are one of the better teams in the NFC. Tampa pulled out an overtime win in Chicago last week but I think the Pack will come into Raymond James Stadium and beat the Bucs this week.
Houston (+7) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags cover.
Comment: In my opinion, this is one of the tougher games on this week’s slate to predict. For one thing, the Texans have only played 2 games. Also, the Jags have not lived up to expectations so far this season and they could very easily be 0-3. Jax lost as a favorite against the Titans and Bills, but those teams have been surprisingly good this year, while the Texans have been surprisingly bad. Houston has lost to good teams on the road by 21 and by 19, and they play another good team on the road this week. They’re also 12-38 on the road this decade. I’ll call for the Jags to finally take care of business as a favorite.
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Browns pull off the upset.
Comment: This is a hard one for me because I don’t really have much of a reason to pick the Browns; I just have a strong gut feeling. I know that the Browns have been dismal this year, while the Bengals took the Giants to OT in New York last week. Plus the Bengals are at home, where they have been a much better team historically, and the Browns have been awful on the road. For some reason I just have a feeling that the Browns will win and I can’t really say why.
Sunday’s Late Games
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland
Pick: Chargers win but Raiders beat the spread.
Comment: After losing in the final seconds of each of their first two games, the Chargers finally played like the Super Bowl contenders many expected them to be this year, blowing out the Jets last Monday night. The Raiders looked dreadful in their opening game and they continue to act in a very dysfunctional way off the field, but in the last 2 weeks they have blown out the Chiefs at Arrowhead and lost by a point in Buffalo. The Raiders have been awful over the last 6 years but they’ve been slightly less awful at home. The Chargers, on the other hand, are 26-40 on the road this decade. They have won 9 straight over the Raiders, 4 of 5 in Oakland, and they’ve beaten the spread in their last 5 trips to the Black Hole. But for some reason I just feel like the Raiders will keep this game within a TD. Again, I’ve got no real reason for this, just a hunch.
Buffalo (-9) @ St. Louis
Pick: Bills cover.
Comment: The Bills were 9 point favorites over the Raiders at home last week and they needed a furious 4th quarter comeback just to pull out a 1 point win. However, the Rams have been disgustingly bad in each week of the season so far, and now they are turning to Trent Green. And let me say that I have some serious concerns about Trent Green playing in this game. I think he makes the Rams an even worse team, but I’m not talking about that, I’m talking about his health. He’s not going to play the game in fear of getting hit and there’s no reason to think that the Bills will play any differently against him simply because he has a history of concussions. I see an ugly scene on the horizon. As for the game itself, the Rams have been 9.5 or 9 point underdogs in all 3 of their games so far, and they’ve lost by at least 24 points each time. With that in mind, how can you possibly pick them to beat a 9 point spread against the 3-0 Bills?
Washington (+11) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Skins beat the spread.
Comment: Through the first 3 weeks of the season the Cowboys have been the best team in the League and I expect them to have more than enough against the Redskins at home this Sunday. However, 11 points is a lot, especially in this rivalry. The Skins looked pathetic on opening night but they’ve looked much better since, winning their last two games. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 against the Cowboys, though they’ve lost 4 of 5 in Dallas. I don’t see them winning this Sunday either but they normally keep it close and I think they’ll keep it within 10 points.
Sunday Night’s Game
Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago
Pick: Eagles win but Bears beat the spread.
Comment: This one is really tough. The Eagles have been great this season but they are severely banged up on offense. If either McNabb or Westbrook are rendered ineffective due to their injuries, the Eagles offense will be far less potent. The Bears have suffered tough losses in the last 2 weeks after blowing out the Colts in week 1, and I see them keeping this game very close as well. I’m going to take the Eagles to win simply because I think they’re a better team but I believe it will be extremely close.
Monday Night’s Game
Baltimore (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: This one is also very hard to call because of Pittsburgh’s injury issues. Willie Parker is out for this game and Ben Roethlisberger has one shoulder and a shoddy offensive line. If there’s any team that you would expect to take advantage of an injured QB and a rookie RB, it’s Baltimore. We don’t know that much about the Ravens yet, as they’ve played only 2 games, both at home, and both against 0-3 teams. This will be by far the best defense that Joe Flacco has faced and it will be his first road game. And the Ravens’ home/road records have been as drastically different as any team in the League in recent years. Baltimore is 30 games over .500 at home this decade and 12 games under .500 on the road, going just 1-7 on the road last season. Last year the Ravens played in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football in week 9 and got lambasted 38-7. However, that game was significantly affected by the weather and the ridiculously poor condition of the field. The Ravens have lost 4 of 5 in Pittsburgh but they usually play the Steelers tough. I think they’ll keep it close but in the end I see the Steelers pulling out the victory.
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