The Baseball Blog: The Final Three Weeks

The races are getting pretty tight as we head into the final 3 weeks of the season. At this point, only 1 of the 6 division races is decided (and boy is it ever decided) and the Wild Card is still wide open in the NL. Just about every contender seems to be banged up or slumping or showing serious signs of weakness or something negative.

AL East
Having pulled off back to back dramatic victories over the Red Sox at Fenway to take 2 of 3 in the series, Tampa Bay currently leads Boston by 2.5 games in the AL East. Now you might say “why does it really matter who wins the division?” as whoever finishes second in the East is going to be the American League Wild Card team. You’d have a valid point, and certainly if the Rays end up finishing second and going to the postseason as the Wild Card team it will still be one of the all-time great surprises. But there are a couple of reasons why it might matter. Number 1: there’s the mental side of it.



If the Bo-Sox wind up passing the Rays and taking the division crown they will head into the postseason on a high, while it might be a significant confidence blow for the young Rays to lose the division after holding on for so long. Number 2: it will determine the playoff matchups, and this is much more important. Anaheim is going to automatically play the Wild Card team in the best of 5 ALDS round. They will either finish with the League’s best record and be the #1 seed if you will, or they will finish with the second best record and the East division winner will have the best record, but because they can’t play a team from their own division in the first round, the Angels would play the Wild Card team anyway.



If the Rays hang on and win the division, it sets up a power matchup of the Red Sox and Angels in the first round, and it’s a matchup that the Angels wouldn’t be thrilled about. The Rays would then be playing the winner of the AL Central. If Minnesota and the Rays both end up on top of their respective divisions they will play each other in an ALDS matchup of “small market” clubs who are among the most underappreciated by their fans in all of baseball. On the other hand, if the Rays are unable to hang on to first place in the East they will then have to play the Angels in the ALDS. I think this would be a much preferred opening series for the Angels and one which I doubt the Rays would win. I believe Boston has the edge over either of the Central teams, and the Angels and Red Sox would be on course for what could be a dynamite ALCS. This is why I think the AL East race is so important. I don’t see the Rays getting to the ALCS unless they win the division. If the Rays do win the division, then the Angels will have to go up against the team that swept them in the ALDS in 2004 and 2007. If the Rays win the division, I think the Central team would have a shot to make the ALCS. So it is important who wins the division, for more reasons than just pride.



The Rays came up with enormous victories on Tuesday and Wednesday night at Fenway, winning in Boston for the first time all season, and leaving town still in 1st place by themselves. But they do appear to be fading somewhat. Over their last 9 games they are 3-6, they’ve scored 4 runs or less 7 times, and they’ve been shutout twice. Yes, they have the great pitching but the absence of both Longoria and Crawford, and the nagging injuries to BJ Upton, are beginning to take a toll on the offense. Meanwhile Boston is starting to get healthy again, with Lowell back from the DL, Drew soon to follow, and Beckett returning to the mound last night. I just don’t see the Rays holding on to this thing. I think it’ll be a shame and I’ll be pulling for them, but I expect the Red Sox to eventually take over 1st and end the season as the champion of the AL East.

AL Central
The White Sox currently lead the Twins by a game. This is a true division race, as the winner will go to the postseason and the team that finishes second will go home. Whoever wins it will play either the Red Sox or the Rays in the ALDS. If they draw the Rays I think whichever team wins the Central could advance. I’m not sure who is going to end up taking this division. I’ve waited all season for the Twins to fall off but they haven’t. I still don’t know how they’re doing it. They look a team from the dead ball era offensively. No player on the team has more than 23 homers, the second biggest homerun total on the team is just 17, and no other Twins player is in double digits in homers. I mean that is pretty remarkable. Obviously Justin Morneau leads the team with 23 bombs, but do you know that Jason Kubel is the guy with 17? Jason Kubel? They have just 101 total homers as a team, while the White Sox have hit 209. But guess who scores more runs? Em hm, the Twinkies. How is this happening? The Twins steal bases but not with a very good percentage; they don’t draw any walks; they’re 9th in the AL in EXBH. It’s ridiculous. Okay, so you wanna know what’s going on? They’ve hit .312 with Runners in Scoring Position this season. Yes, that’s right, .312. So they have been very, very clutch…and very fortunate. It’s not like they have a dominant pitching staff or anything. They’re 7th in runs allowed, 12th in batting average against, and 10th in strikeouts in the AL. In case you are wondering, they aren’t defensive wizards either; they’re tied 11th in total errors and fielding percentage. Their starting rotation is a big part of their success. While they don’t have any dominant starters, they have 5 genuinely decent starters, and that keeps you in a lot of games and gives you a chance to win almost every night. If they win the division I think they could topple the Rays in the ALDS because Tampa Bay is inexperienced and doesn’t have a powerful lineup or a dominant closer. I don’t think the Twins could hang with the Bo-Sox in a best of 5. The Red Sox would have the edge in almost every facet.



If I had to make a bet I would say that the White Sox will hang on and win the Central. Unfortunately for them they are suffering injuries at a horrible time. Carlos Quentin’s broken wrist came at the worst possible time. In my opinion, Quentin was the leading MVP candidate prior to being lost for the rest of the season. Joe Crede has played in 7 games since July 21st. Now Paul Konerko has a sprained knee. While I still think the White Sox will win the division, these injuries will hurt their chances in the playoffs, and though their starting rotation is strong, it isn’t going to dominate they way they did back in 2005. They could beat the Rays and I’d give them more of a chance against the Red Sox in the ALDS than the Twins but I wouldn’t bet on them getting past Boston.

AL West
The Angels clinched the AL West division title yesterday, September 10th, the earliest date that any team has ever clinched the AL West title. They are going to have to find ways to remain sharp and keep the competitive juices flowing. It can be hard for teams to coast for a month and then suddenly flip the switch. It’s not as if it’s that big of a deal, but it can be a problem for some teams. If the Angels have to play the Red Sox in the ALDS I would be worried about them. The results of the past 2 ALDS against Boston would obviously concern me. But also if it does take them a game to get back into serious mode, it would be much more costly in a best of 5 series against a foe like Boston. If the Angels draw the Rays in the ALDS I think they would most likely advance fairly easily. They would matchup better against the Red Sox in a best of 7 series in my opinion. Really all of the series should be best of 7. I’d prefer them to be best of 9 actually, but they should at least get rid of the best of 5 series, it’s just too quick.

AL Wild Card
This race is basically over, we just don’t know whether it will be the Red Sox or the Rays that ends up being the Wild Card team due to not winning the AL East. Currently the Red Sox are in 1st in the WC standings, with the Twins their closest challenger, 5 games back.



NL East
The Mets now hold a 3.5 game lead over the Phillies. For the Mets, the news that Billy Wagner is done for good has to be pretty disheartening, if not all together unexpected. The bullpen has been shaky all season and now they will be without their dominant closer the rest of the way. Everyone knows how this division ended up last year, with the Mets giving it away to the Phillies in one of the greatest choke jobs of all-time. Every time they blow a save over the next few weeks those thoughts are going to creep into their minds and into the minds of the fans. If Luis Ayala continues to perform like he has so far in Wagner’s stead and the Mets go on to win the division that acquisition will go down as one of the best moves Omar Minaya has ever made. I have felt for most of the season that the Phillies were the best team in the East and I expected them to beat out New York for the title, but they’ve been a mediocre team over the last 5 weeks. They don’t get consistent work from their starting rotation and their hitters are as streaky as any bunch in baseball. Perhaps they will catch fire over the last few weeks, but right now the Mets appear to be the better team, despite the loss of Wagner. But the loser of this race isn’t necessarily out of the postseason. Until recently it seemed certain that whoever finished 2nd in the Central between the Cubs and the Brewers would be the Wild Card team from the NL. It still very well could end up that way but it’s not quite such a sure thing. If both the Phils and Mets play well over the last 3 weeks they could both get to the postseason. I think New York would be the more dangerous playoff team because they have Johan and because the Phillies lineup is so up and down.

NL Central
The Cubs still hold a fairly large 4.5 game lead over the Brewers in the Central. However, the two teams at the top of the NL Central are not exactly rolling. Right now there is a sense that even the best teams are just struggling to hang on, and this is no more evident than in the NL Central, where the Cubs have slumped and suffered serious injury scares, and instead of capitalizing on Chicago’s skid, the Brewers have followed suit. The Cubs have had to shelve both Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden recently and have lost 8 of their last 10 games. The Brew Crew has lost 7 of 10, and scored 2 runs or less in 5 of those 10 games. A lot would have to happen for the Cubs to miss out on the playoffs completely and with the Brewers slumping at exactly the same time, their chances of winning the division still look pretty good as long as they can play decent baseball over the next 3 weeks. I still think the Cubs will win the division but that sense that this might be the Cubs’ year has been replaced by a sense of impending disappointment.

NL West
Why is it that the NL West always seems to be having its own separate playoff chase in which mediocrity means being the top team in the division, and no one is ever eliminated, no matter how far below .500 they are? No NL West team has won more than 90 games in any of the last 3 seasons, and the Dodgers would have to go 16-0 the rest of the way to eclipse that mark this season. I have felt fairly certain throughout this entire season that the D-Backs would win the NL West and I never really questioned it until a few days ago. At this point, I’m starting to think for the first time that Arizona is probably not going to win the division. 10 days ago the Dodgers looked absolutely finished. On August 29th they lost the opener of 3 with the D-Backs in Arizona for their 8th consecutive loss and their 10th in 11 games to fall 4.5 games back in the West. The immediate boost that Manny Ramirez’s presence had brought to the club seemed to have worn off, the players looked disinterested, the third base coach was spouting off at the mouth again and it looked like the Dodgers were going to self destruct and fall apart once again, even under the guidance of Joe Torre. But they came back to take the final 2 in Arizona and that got them on a roll that has yet to stop. They won 3 in a row over the Padres and then swept the D-Backs in 3 at home for an 8 game win streak, taking a 1.5 game lead in the division. The streak ended but they have won 10 of 11 and they are now 3.5 games up on the Snakes. A few weeks ago it looked like the Diamond Backs had finally gotten back to being something like the team that started the year 19-7. On August 23rd the D-Backs were 7 games over .500. Since that time they have lost 13 of 16 and are now 3 games under .500. At the end of play on August 29th the D-Backs had a 4.5 game lead in the NL West; they are now 3.5 games behind the Dodgers. I’m coming to grips with the fact that the team that I thought was the favorite to win the World Series this year is probably not even going to get to the tournament. Being able to go into a 5 or 7 game series with a 3 man rotation of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Randy Johnson seemed to me like a recipe for a postseason run but it doesn’t appear that it will happen, in large part because Webb and Haren have sucked and RJ is now on the shelf. If they do end up winning the division the Diamond Backs will still be very dangerous because those guys could get hot again at any time. If the Dodgers win, I think they have the potential to win the whole thing as well. With Manny now in the lineup the Dodgers finally have enough offense to get by with. Their pitching staff could easily put together a dominant stretch lasting long enough for them to win 11 games in October.

NL Wild Card
As mentioned before, until recently it seemed almost certain that either the Cubs or the Brewers would wind up as the Wild Card winner, but at this moment it is getting a little hairy. Of course the teams from the West have no shot, but there are a handful of teams now within striking distance of the Brewers. The Phils are just 4 games back, the Cards are hanging in just 4.5 back, and the Houston Astros have once again put together a furious second half rally and are now just 4 games behind the Brewers in the WC standings. At this point I think any of these teams could end up winning it. I have waited and waited for the Cardinals to fade away but they never have. Albert Pujols is the unquestioned MVP of the NL and I think to suggest otherwise would be ludicrous. At the end of play on July 23rd, the Astros were 9 games under .500 at 46-55, in last place in the Central, in 9th place in the Wild Card Standings, 12 games back of the Brewers. Since then they have gone 33-12. You have to remember that they are doing this without Carlos Lee. There was a period of time between August 15th and the 26th when the Astros lost 7 of 11, scoring 2 runs or less in 5 of those losses. Were Lee not hurt they might not have gone into that hitting slump and they might have won at least 1 or 2 of those games and they’d be even closer. I’m really tempted right now to say that the Astros or the Cardinals are going to win it, simply because of their history and because the Brewers haven’t made the playoffs since 1982.



Whoever the 4 teams are that make it to the National League playoffs, it should be fairly wide open. If Milwaukee gets in, you have to think that they could go a long way behind Sabathia and Sheets. If the Cubs have all of their pitchers available in the postseason, I would have to make them the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series, but then again they haven’t been in the WS since 1945. Either of the teams from the West could ride their starting pitchers to the WS. The Mets bullpen could prove to be their undoing if they do reach the playoffs, and if the Cards managed to win the Wild Card I believe their bullpen would keep them from succeeding in the postseason.


The Races for the Awards

I’m consistently stunned by the number of ignorant and idiotic comments made by sports media concerning baseball. Of all the major sports it has got to be by far and a way the least understood, even by the people whose job it is to cover it and to pay attention to it. There have been and still are way too many people clamoring about CC Sabathia being the NL Cy Young Award winner. Look, what he has done so far for the Brewers in his 13 starts with them has been nothing short of phenomenal. He has been one of the greatest July acquisitions ever, and has certainly been the best July trade pitcher that I have ever witnessed. But you can’t give the Cy Young Award to a guy who is going to end up making 16 starts and won’t even have enough innings pitched to qualify for the League leader board in any rate stats. Yes I know about Rick Sutcliffe, and Sabathia is doing something close to what Rick did, but Sutcliffe started 20 games and went 16-1. If there weren’t any strong candidates for Cy Young this year I would give the CC idea more of a chance. But there is an obvious candidate.



Tim Lincecum is 16-3 and leads the NL in K’s and ERA. In my opinion that makes it case closed. Brandon Webb was a very strong candidate but has completely lost his game recently. He was been stuck on 19 wins for a while and his ERA is now at 3.41. I would even give Johan Santana the nod over CC at this point, as he is 13-7 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. People get a little too caught up in the number of wins sometimes. It’s a classic case of people not really understanding the game. It’s not that wins don’t mean anything, it’s just that you have to look at each case and decide what a pitcher’s win-loss record means. For Santana, it doesn’t mean all that much, because his bullpen has blown like 800 leads for him. And what people sometimes forget is that a pitcher can not win a game, all he can do is keep his team from losing.



This brings me to another issue and that is a lack of understanding of what the award is supposed to be given for. Sports media people often seem to think that the Cy Young Award is the Most Valuable Pitcher Award or something. The Cy Young Award is meant to be given to the best pitcher. It’s awarded to the guy who pitched better than anyone else that year. So it really has nothing to do with the success of his term per say. A starting pitcher only plays in 1 of every 5 games or so. How well the team does the 4 games out of 5 that he isn’t pitching has nothing to do with the Cy Young Award. And even how well a pitcher’s team does in games in which he does pitch isn’t that important. Lets say a guy makes 30 starts and posts a 2.00 ERA but his team is the worst offensive team in the League and also has the League’s worst bullpen and thus he ends up going just 12-6. You don’t then decide to give the Cy Young Award to a guy that goes 20-7 with a 3.25 ERA just because his performance led to more success in terms of wins and losses for his team. The award goes to the best pitcher, period. Actually, the only time the success or failure of a pitcher’s team should ever be brought into the discussion is when a pitcher like Lincecum manages to put together a sparkling won-loss record despite playing for a team that sucks, like the Giants, who are 65-80.



There have also been ignorant and idiotic claims and arguments made by the media concerning the AL Cy Young Award. The thing about it is, the choice for this year’s AL Cy Young Award winner is as obvious as I’ve ever seen it. Cliff Lee is 21-2 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, has thrown 4 Complete Games, and 2 Shutouts. He’s 2nd in the League in innings pitched, 1st in Wins, 1st in Winning Percentage, 1st in ERA, 2nd in Complete Games, tied 1st in Shutouts, 1st in Quality Starts, 1st in Quality Start Percentage, and 2nd in WHIP. Again people, this isn’t hard. And yet I’ve heard people try and argue that Dice-K Matsusaki should win it, despite the fact that his ERA is 2.97 compared with Lee’s 2.28, and he has a WHIP of 1.36. But the argument we’ve been hearing most is the one that calls for Francisco Rodriguez to win the Cy Young Award. I’m not someone who says that a relief pitcher should never win the Cy Young. If a guy has an awesome season and there aren’t any good starting pitching candidates then certainly a closer can win the award. But this is not that type of situation.



K-Rod has recorded 56 Saves this year and he will almost certainly set the all time record for Saves in a single season. That’s great, and Rodriguez is definitely one of the game’s better closers, but it’s not something that should win him the Cy Young. It’s definitely important to have a reliable 9th inning man who can close the door and seal wins, but I don’t think merely leading the League in Saves or even setting the all-time record for Saves puts you in the Cy Young conversation. This might sound silly, but other than the Save category, Rodriguez isn’t even having the best season for a reliever in the AL. K-Rod has a 2.49 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 61 innings. Twins closer Joe Nathan has a 1.05 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 60 innings. He’s pitched significantly better than K-Rod this season, he just hasn’t had 62 Save Opportunities. Jonathon Papplebon has a 1.89 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 62 innings. Same story here. Mariano Rivera has in fact had the best season for a closer in baseball this year, not K-Rod. Rivera has converted 33 of 34 Save Opportunities while posting a 1.43 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP over 63 innings. That’s sick. And think about this: K-Rod’s ERA is 2.49 and his WHIP is 1.24; Cliff Lee’s ERA is 2.28 and his WHIP is 1.05 and he has thrown 140.1 more innings than Rodriguez! That right there ends the conversation. Also, there is another worthy candidate for the AL Cy Young. Roy Halladay would be the deserving party if not for Lee, as he is 18-10 with 8 Complete Games, 2 Shutouts, a 2.77 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP in a League leading 224 innings.



Idiotic arguments have also been routinely made concerning the MVP Awards. Once again there seems to be some confusion over what the award is for. It’s given to the player who brings the most value to his team during the regular season. It’s not the most valuable player on the best team in the League; it’s not the most valuable player on a winning team; it’s the most valuable player on any team, regardless of how good the rest of the team is. I understand using intangibles and whether a guy plays for a contender as a tiebreaker between two or more essentially equal candidates, but if there’s a clear choice it doesn’t matter if his team wins a single game. I actually heard someone argue today that Carlos Delgado should win the MVP over Pujols because it looks like the Mets are going to go to the playoffs and the Cardinals aren’t. Keep in mind that Carlos Delgado is hitting .264 with a .864 OPS, while Pujols is hitting .362 with a 1.122 OPS. Hello! It’s pitiful that people who discuss sports on the air everyday do not understand baseball enough to realize how ridiculous the idea of Delgado being more valuable than Pujols is.



In the American League there is not a clear cut winner at this point. I believe Carlos Quentin would have ended up being the clear cut winner had he not broken his wrist. There are a number of worthy guys but nobody that really stands out. The Dustin Pedroia hype is not ill-founded but I do think there’s a lot of romanticism involved here (the little second baseman, the gritty guy, the guy who shows passion and emotion). If I had a vote I would vote for Alex Rodriguez. He’s been hammered by Yankee fans and the media as if he has somehow had an off year. Look, A-Rod had a tough month of August for sure. He struck out 30 times and hit into an astounding 11 GDP in the month. Yet even in his worst month, A-Rod still had a .848 OPS with 6 homers. And in every other month he has been awesome.



I will admit that his numbers in “clutch” situations aren’t great, but it’s not as if he’s been a choking dog all season. He has hit .274 with RISP, .282 with runners on base, and .302 with two out. Those are fine numbers. He has hit just .250 with 2 out and RISP and just .262 in close and late situations. Those aren’t very good numbers but they aren’t awful. He has hit .289 with 3 homers in the 9th inning this season, and .286 with 9 homers and 21 RBI in innings 7-9. And in all other areas he has been the best player in the League.

Leaders and Milestones

Ryan Howard leads the Majors with 42 homers and is on pace to hit 47. With Carlos Quentin out for the rest of the season, the only other player on pace for 40 homers is Adam Dunn who currently has 36 dingers. If just 2 players end up with 40 homers, it will be the smallest number of players with 40 homers since only 2 players reached the 40 homer mark in the strike shortened season of 1994. It would be the smallest number of players with 40 homers in a full season since only 2 players hit 40 or more in 1992. On the other hand, 19 players have already reached the 30 homer plateau, and there are 32 players on pace to hit 30 homers, which would be 6 more than last season.



Howard is not only leading the Majors in homers, he’s also on pace to shatter his record for strikeouts in a season of 199. He’s already fanned 189 times and is on pace for 210 strikeouts. Mark Reynolds on pace to strikeout 206 times, and Jack Cust is on pace for 195 strikeouts.

Cliff Lee will almost certainly be the first qualified pitcher to finish with an ERA under 2.50 since 2005. Lee has 21 wins already, the most by any pitcher since 2005, and he is on pace to win 23 games, which would be more than any pitcher has won in a single season since 2002. Lee also has a 1.05 WHIP and if he finishes with a WHIP less than 1.05 he will be the first qualified pitcher to do so since 2006.

Francisco Rodriguez has 56 Saves and is 1 Save away from tying the single season record of 57 set by Bobby Thigpen in 1990. Rodriguez is the first pitcher to record at least 50 Saves since 2004. He is on pace for 63 Saves.

Roy Halladay has 8 Complete Games and CC Sabathia has 9. They are the first pitchers to record more than 7 Complete Games in one season since 2004. If one of them reaches double digits they will be the first to do so since 1999. Sabathia has 5 Shutouts which is more than any pitcher has had in a season since 2005.