Season: Vs. Spread (114-120-6); Straight Up: (146-94)
Week 16 Review: A very strange week. A decent week for me, although it could have been better. It looks like I’m going to come up short in my quest for .500.
Week 17 Preview: The final week of the season is always a weird one because of all the teams with nothing to play for. You never know which teams will show up. It’s always hard to judge playoff teams who may or may not be resting their starters. One thing we do know: barring any more strange weather delays, all 16 games will be on Sunday for the only time this year. Because this is a special week, I’m going to do my comments for each game a little differently. Basically they’ll be the same as every other week, only more organized and less jumbled together. And I’m also going to rate each game in terms of interest and importance on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being the worst and 5 being the best.
Ratings Guide
1: Nothing happening here unless you have money on the game or a fantasy football interest. Ask whatever gods you pray to not to leave you stuck without the NFL package in an area of the country slated to get this game. I was in Montana last week and the only 4:00 game we got was Tampa vs. Seattle. Yeah, it wasn’t that sweet.
2: This isn’t a complete throwaway game. There’s at least one aspect of this matchup that is more intriguing than cleaning your bathtub, but it doesn’t have much (if any) importance.
3: The outcome of this game could have some importance to the playoff picture but it’s not the most crucial of the week.
4: This is a legitimately interesting and important game.
5: This is a big game.
Moving on, I have to give the NFL credit for doing a pretty damn good job of scheduling the games in the final week of the season. First, they decided to go with only interdivisional games in week 17. This was a good move. Clearly this made it more likely that several games would feature two contenders going up against each other with a lot on the line (this year we have New Orleans-Tampa Bay, Green Bay-Chicago, and Seattle-St. Louis). Perhaps more importantly, teams with nothing to play for in terms of the postseason will be more likely to get fired up to play spoiler against a division rival (there are several examples this season but the Washington-New York Giants game is probably the best).
The league also did a good job assigning the times for the games this week. It’s always best to have contending teams playing at the same time as the teams they are fighting against for a playoff spot or seeding. In this area I would give the NFL about a “B” grade this season. In the NFC, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Atlanta will all play at 1:00, while Green Bay, Chicago, and New York will play later in the afternoon. I don’t understand why the Miami-New England and Minnesota-Detroit games weren’t slotted for 4:00 starts with the GB-CHI and NYG-WAS games starting at 1:00. I mean, I do understand why that didn’t happen. It would have left the late game slate fairly weak. But they could have made it happen. People are going to watch the Patriots no matter what, and if Brett Favre plays people will definitely watch that game. And it would have helped keep the integrity of that Chi-GB game.
The NFL did a better job with the AFC games, scheduling the games involving the Steelers and Ravens at 1:00 and the games involving the Colts and Jags at 4:00. And yet, I have to wonder why they couldn’t have moved the games involving the Steelers and Ravens to the late afternoon time slot instead of the games I mentioned earlier. That would have kept both the early and late game time slots packed full of meaningful games. The only reason any of this matters is that the Bears are going to know whether or not they have a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC. If the Falcons or Saints win during the early session, the Bears will be locked into the #2 spot and will therefore have nothing to gain (at least in terms of seeding) from going all out to beat the Packers. This is obviously not ideal for the Giants and/or the Bucs. I’m sure it all has something to do with the TV rights for CBS and Fox, but I don’t understand why they couldn’t have made it happen.
The one thing the league definitely got right was choosing the Seattle-St. Louis game for the night slot. That was the only “what amounts to a playoff game” matchup of this year’s final week (meaning the winner is in and the loser goes home). It’s also the only game featuring contenders which will be completely unaffected by the rest of the day’s action. If you’re the sort of person that turns to look when passing by the scene of an accident (and I think we all are that sort of person) then this game is going to draw your curiosity. There’s a chance we will witness NFL history. If the Seahawks win they will be regarded by many as the absolute worst playoff team in the history of the league, and certainly the worst division winner (at least excluding the strike-shortened 1981 season when 8 teams from each conference made the playoffs after playing only 9 regular season games). It may also be the worst ever “play-in” game in league history, as the 7-8 Rams are not exactly elite either.
Sunday’s Early Games
Tampa Bay (+9) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Bucs beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 4
Comment: This should be an interesting game, with the overachieving Bucs looking to pull off a big upset, get a ton of help, and slide miraculously into the playoffs. The Saints still have a shot at the NFC South division title and the #1 seed in the NFC.
Playoff Implications: The Bucs are eliminated with a loss. They need a win and losses by the Packers and Giants to claim the #6 seed. The Saints already have a playoff spot wrapped up, but if they win and the Falcons somehow lose to the Panthers, the defending Super Bowl champs will find themselves holding a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Records and Trends: The Bucs are 9-6 (9-5-1 ATS) and 5-2 on the road (6-0-1 ATS). Despite being 3 games over .500, they have just a +0.9 average scoring differential. They have lost 3 of their last 5, but they’ve found a way to stay alive in the playoff chase into the final week of the season, and that alone is fairly remarkable. They are 1-2-1 ATS in their last 4. The Saints are 11-4 (7-8 ATS) and coming off of a huge win at Atlanta on Monday Night Football. They are 5-2 at home this season (4-3 ATS) and they have a very solid +5.8 average scoring differential. The Saints are hot, having won 7 of their last 8 games, but they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5.
Injuries: The Bucs will again be without their talented corner Aqib Talib. Chris Ivory has missed the last 2 games for the Saints with a hamstring problem, but Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are mostly healthy (as far as we know). Marques Colston is doubtful with a knee injury.
Series History: In week 6, the Saints gave the Bucs a dose of reality, winning 31-6 at Tampa. The Saints hold a 22-15 edge in the all-time series, but they are just 3-4 in their last 7 against the Bucs, and 1-2 in their last 3 at home. Last season, the Saints whipped the Bucs on the road in week 11, winning 38-7. However, in week 16, with the Saints trying to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Bucs stunned the Super Dome crowd with a 20-17 overtime win.
Team Goals: The Bucs are trying for their first double digit win season since 2005. This is the first time the Saints have reached the playoffs in back to back seasons since they went 3 years in a row from 1990-1992. That stretch had been the only time in franchise history that they had reached the postseason in consecutive years until now. New Orleans can also win 12+ games in back to back years for the first time, and they have a shot at winning back to back division titles for the first time.
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens win but Bengals beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 3
Comment: I just want to point out that this is technically the team that Art Modell banished Paul Brown from and then stole from Cleveland vs. the team Brown built in order to take revenge against Modell and his former team. I know that Paul Brown is dead and that Art Modell owns only a 1% interest in the Ravens but I just wanted to point that out.
Playoff Implications: The Ravens are still very much alive for the AFC North division title and a first round bye. They have already wrapped up a playoff spot, but if they win and the Steelers lose to the Browns (the new ones, not Modell’s team or Paul Brown’s team that looked suspiciously like Modell’s) they will clinch the division title and the #2 seed in the AFC. If the Ravens lose, or if both the Ravens and the Steelers win, Baltimore will be the #5 seed.
Records and Trends: The Bengals have shockingly won 2 straight without T.O. and they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4.What a surprise?! You get rid of one of the all-time soul crushers and you start having fun again! What a concept! The Ravens had a brief slipup late in the game against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, but otherwise they’ve been rock solid. They have won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They’ve won 3 straight ATS. The Bengals are now 4-11 on the year (6-9 ATS) but just 1-6 on the road (2-5 ATS). They have a -4.5 average scoring differential. The Ravens are the exact opposite of the Bengals. They are 11-4 overall (8-6-1 ATS) and 6-1 at home (3-4 ATS). They also have a +5.4 average scoring differential. So take all of those reflecting numbers and think about all of the Brown/Browns/Modell/Bengals/Ravens stuff. Ooo-wooooo!!!
Injuries: Let me go over this again, and Mike Brown (there’s that word again), I hope you’re paying attention. The “renegade team” thing has worked before (Raiders, Oilers), but what hasn’t worked before is the “deviant/spoiled/narcissistic/lazy/clownish/complete asshole team” thing. This season, the Bengals went: 1-4 when Pacman Jones played; 2-5 when Andre Smith played; 2-5 when Tank Johnson played; 1-3 when Antwan Odom played; 2-11 when T.O. played; and 3-11 when Chad Johnson played. Without these guys in the lineup they are undefeated. Johnson is the only one of those guys not on IR, and he’s doubtful for this Sunday with an ankle injury. Hopefully for them he won’t play.
Series History: What makes this game a bit tricky for the Ravens is that they’ve had a hard time with the Bungles recently. Back in week 2 (when we actually thought the Bengals would be a decent team), the Ravens lost in Cincinnati, 15-10. It was the 3rd straight defeat for the Ravens in this series and the 9th in the last 12 meetings between these two. They have lost 4 of their last 6 at home against the Bengals. Despite the fact that the Bungles have been perennial losers for most of the time that the Ravens have existed, Baltimore holds just a 15-14 edge in the all-time series.
Team Goals: This is the first time in Ravens history that they have reached the playoffs in 3 straight years. A loss for the Bengals would mean their first season with 12 or more losses since 2002. This is the 17th double digit loss season in their 43 year history.
Carolina (+14.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 5
Comment: That’s probably not the rating that most would give this game, but for me this is the biggest game of the year. For the 3rd straight season the Falcons are ending the year with a very winnable game. For the 3rd straight season I find myself extremely anxious and ready to get it over with. In 2008, the Falcons had a chance to win the division and the #2 seed and they were hosting the 2-13 Rams. They hung on to win, 31-27 (unfortunately, the Panthers beat the Saints by 2 points, keeping the Falcons from winning the division title). Last year they needed a win to put the “never had back to back winning seasons” albatross to death (after torturing it for a while hopefully) and they were on the road against a 3-12 Tampa team. They won 20-10. Now they are coming off a painful MNF loss to the Saints at home, and they need only to beat the 2-13 Panthers at home to win the division and clinch the #1 seed in the NFC. I don’t even want to think about what it would be like if the disastrous took place, but I’m a lifelong Falcons fan, so I can’t help but imagine it. It makes me want to throw up and choke on my own bile.
Much had been made of this likely being John Fox’s last game as coach of the Panthers, and how he and the players would be really inspired to win this game. They made it official on Friday, so both he and his players will know that this is it. The irrational part of me is scared by this. Rationally, I’m not intimidated by this concept. I’m pretty sure John Fox just wants this season to be over. I have no idea if the players have any feelings for Fox. And regardless, you still have to have decent players in order to pull off an upset like this, no matter how fired up you may be. The Panthers are awful. If Atlanta loses, it won’t be because of the Panthers, it will be because of the Falcons. As long as the Falcons don’t do everything possible to beat themselves, they’ll win it. Still, I’m scared.
Now, there is one other little unfortunate aspect of having to play this game, and that is the risk of a tragic injury in the final game before the playoffs. The Falcons should have won on Monday night, but they came up short, and they lost a chance to rest the starters in the finale. The Falcons have had very good luck with injuries this season, and it would just be a macabre joke if they lost a key player or two this Sunday.
Playoff Implications: It’s very simple. The Falcons have clinched a playoff spot. If they win on Sunday, they are the NFC South division champs and the #1 seed in the NFC. If they lose, it will be one of the worst defeats in Atlanta sports history (and trust me, we’ve had a lot of bad ones). If the unthinkable does happen and they lose it could be a total disaster. If they lose and the Saints win, the Falcons will be the #5 seed. If they lose and the Saints lose but the Bears win they will be division champs and the #2 seed. If they lose and the Saints lose and the Bears lose, the Falcons will hang on to the division title and the #1 seed, but we will have two weeks to think about how they are going to be just another chapter in the haunted history of Atlanta sports.
Records and Trends: The Panthers have the worst record in the NFL at 2-13 (4-11 ATS) and they have clinched the #1 pick in next year’s draft. They are 0-7 on the road (2-5 ATS). They have lost 8 of their last 9 (2-7 ATS) and they have an NFL worst -12.7 average scoring differential. The Falcons have the 2nd best record in the NFL at 12-3 (10-5 ATS) and they are 6-1 at home (4-3 ATS). Their first home loss of the season came last Monday against New Orleans. That loss also snapped an 8 game winning streak overall and a 6 game winning streak ATS. They have a very solid +7.0 average scoring differential.
Injuries: DeAngelo Williams is done for the year, but the Panthers will have Jonathan Stewart. Chris Gamble is out again with a hamstring injury.
Series History: These two met in Carolina just a few weeks ago. The Falcons won, 31-10, in week 14. They have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. They are 11-4 at home all-time against the Panthers, but just 2-3 in their last 5 home games against Carolina. The Falcons hold a 19-12 edge in the all-time series.
Team Goals: This is the first time the Panthers have won less than 7 games in a season since 2001 when they went 1-15 (the year before Fox arrived), and just the 3rd time in their history that they have won less than 7 in a year. Barring one of the most improbable outcomes in NFL history, this year’s Panthers team will end up with a scoring margin worse than they had in that 1-15 year. In 2001 they were -157. Going into this game they are -191. The Falcons have had 3 consecutive winning seasons for the first time in their history. They will be trying for their 2nd ever 13+ win season (14-2 in 1998). They are also trying for the 5th division title in their history (first since 2004). They have never before been the #1 seed in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
Pick: Steelers cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 3
Comment: At midseason, I thought the Browns were going to be a dangerous team to face late in the year. Wrong. They suck. They have completely folded over the past month. The Steelers dominate this rivalry. A loss in this one could be a devastating blow to their championship hopes.
Playoff Implications: Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff spot but they would win the AFC North and grab the #2 seed in the AFC if they beat Cleveland. If they do lose to the Browns, the Steelers would also get the division title and the #2 seed if the Ravens lose. However, if Pittsburgh loses and the Ravens win, the Steelers would have to settle for a wild card bid. If they lose and Baltimore and the Jets win, the Steelers would actually fall all the way to the #6 seed. If Baltimore wins and both the Steelers and Jets lose, Pittsburgh would be the #5 seed.
Records and Trends: The Steelers are 11-4 overall (9-6 ATS) and an impressive 6-1 on the road (4-3 ATS). They have a +7.4 average scoring differential. The Browns are now 5-10 (5-10 ATS) and 3-4 at home (2-5 ATS). Cleveland’s average scoring differential is -1.9, which isn’t so bad, yet they are 5 games under .500. They have lost 3 straight and 5 of 7. They have also lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 ATS. The Steelers have won 5 of their last 6 games (4-2 ATS).
Injuries: Aaron Smith has missed 9 straight games with an arm injury but he could be back for the season finale. Most importantly, Troy Palomalu may be ready to go after missing the last 2 games with an Achilles problem.
Series History: The Steelers hold a 61-56 edge in the all-time series (including a 2-0 edge in the postseason), and what that really speaks to is how big of a force the Browns were in the 50’s and 60’s, and how bad the Steelers were during those years. I mean, the Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns for 40 years, and they only have a 5-win edge in the all-time series. Pittsburgh has won 13 of the last 14 meetings, 19 of the last 21, and 26 of the last 30 going back to 1993 (this includes playoffs). Back in week 6, the Steelers rolled the Browns, 28-10, at home. However, in one of the more shocking outcomes of the 2009 season, the Steelers lost late in the year at Cleveland on national TV, ending an 8-game win streak on the road against the Browns. That loss ended up keeping Pittsburgh out of the playoffs. Still, Pittsburgh had won 11 of 12 in Cleveland prior to that game, going back to 1994.
Team Goals: The Steelers will be making their 26th postseason appearance. Pittsburgh will be trying for their 7th season of at least 12 wins in the 36 years of the 16-game schedule (it would be their 8th overall). They will also be shooting for their 20th division title since 1972. Cleveland, on the other hand, needs a win to avoid a 3rd straight season of at least 11 losses. This is their 9th double digit loss season in the 12 years since they were reborn (10th double digit loss year in their last 13 seasons overall).
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Vikings win but Lions beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 2
Comment: Well, it’s starting to look like Favre may not be able to go after all this Sunday. At this point I’m going to have to see it to believe it. Meaning I fully expect Favre to at least try and play this Sunday, regardless of what the doc’s say about his head. Joe Webb will be the QB if Favre can’t go. As for the whole “lewd text message” controversy, I’m not a big fan of the loose interpretation of sexual harassment. Don’t get me wrong: I don’t think anyone should have to work in an environment where some creepy boss is making you feel uncomfortable. But just the fact that she worked for the team in some capacity and he was also with the team does not mean that trying to hook up is harassment. He’s a total boner and I have no respect for him off the field. I mean, just think about this: he actually thought that sending her a picture of his package would be a good way to entice her into letting him smash. Think about that. What a douche. And think about this: it’s probably worked many times in the past. What about that, comrades?
Playoff Implications: Zip zero, stingy with dinero (sorry, I’m not a big Jay-Z fan, but that one’s just way too catchy).
Records and Trends: The Vikes are 6-9 (5-10 ATS) and have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points a game this season. They are 2-5 on the road (2-5 ATS). The Lions are a highly competitive 5-10 team. They are 11-4 ATS. The Lions are 3-4 at home (6-1 ATS). Despite being 5 games under .500, Detroit has only been outscored by 0.9 points a game this season. And they are kind of hot. Actually, considering that they are the Detroit Lions, this team is fucking en fuego. They have won their last 3 games and they have won their last 4 ATS. Minnesota came up with a stunning win at Philly last Tuesday (Tuesday???), and the Vikes are 3-2 over their last 5 (3-2 ATS).
Injuries: As mentioned above, Favre is still dealing with concussion after affects, and has not been medically cleared to play (whatever that means). Sidney Rice is also coming off of a recent concussion. They list him as doubtful but I’d be surprised if he played (haven’t heard anything, just a feeling).
Series History: Minnesota dominates this rivalry. They won at home in week 3, 24-10, for their 6th straight win over the Lions and their 16th in the last 17 meetings. They are 20-2 against Detroit in their last 22 meetings going back to 1999. The Vikes have doubled up on the Lions in the all-time series, holding a 66-30-2 edge. They have also won 7 of their last 8 games in Detroit.
Team Goals: The Vikings need a win to avoid their first double digit loss season since 2006 and just their 4th since 1990. This is Detroit’s 10th consecutive losing season. Amazingly, with a win, the Lions would finish 6-10, which would be tied for their 2nd best record over the last 10 years.
Oakland (+4) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 3
Comment: It’s too bad that the AFC West is all wrapped up going into week 17. This has been one of the great rivalries in pro football going back to the AFL. Both teams have fallen off in recent years, but they both experienced a revival this year. Obviously, the Chiefs have risen higher, but Oakland is still better than they have been in years.
Playoff Implications: The Chiefs have won the division but this game is still of some importance to them. They need a win or an Indy loss to clinch the #3 seed. If KC loses and the Colts win, the Chiefs would drop to the #4 seed.
Records and Trends: The Raiders are a very respectable 7-8 overall (8-7 ATS), but they are just 2-5 on the road (4-3 ATS). They have a positive average scoring margin on the year (+1.2), but they’ve stumbled a bit recently, going just 2-4 in their last 6 (2-4 ATS). The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-5 on the season (9-6 ATS). They are back to being a dominant team at home and that is very important for them. They are 7-0 at Arrowhead this year (5-2 ATS). The Chiefs have a +4.0 average scoring differential and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games (4-2 ATS).
Injuries: Richard Seymour is doubtful for Oakland with a hamstring problem.
Series History: It’s a great one. The Chiefs hold a 54-47-2 edge in the all-time series, including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. As much as the Raiders have struggled recently, they have had the upper hand in this series over the last few years. In week 9 they pulled out a 23-20 overtime win at home. They have won 4 of the last 6 in this series, and they have won 3 straight at Arrowhead.
Team Goals: The Raiders came into the season having lost at least 11 games in 7 consecutive years. That streak is obviously over, but I think going 8-8 would be very meaningful for that franchise. I know they’re one of the great franchises in pro football history, but they’ve been a laughing stock for most of the decade. An 8-8 season would be a giant leap in the right direction. By the way, the Raiders were outscored by at least 93 points in each of the previous 7 seasons. With a game to go, the Raiders are at +18 this year. That’s a pretty drastic improvement. Speaking of drastic improvements, the Chiefs’ 10 wins this season equals their total number of wins over the 3 previous seasons combined. They’ll be trying for just their 2nd season of at least 11 wins in the last 13 years. This is their first division title since 2003 and just their 2nd since 1997.
Buffalo (+1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 3
Comment: We’re still trying to figure out how good the Jets are. Mark Sanchez may not play this week, even though the Jets do have a chance to improve their playoff seeding. Still, the Bills may just be out of gas.
Playoff Implications: The Jets have assured themselves of a wild card bid into the postseason. Right now they appear headed towards the #6 seed. However, if they win and the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, the Jets would be the #5 seed. It’s possible that the Jets don’t really see that as an improvement, as it could have them going to Indianapolis instead of Kansas City. Or maybe Sanchez really is significantly banged up and they’d rather rest him and take their chances.
Records and Trends: The Bills got hammered last week but they remain a very competitive 4-11 team (8-6-1 ATS). They are just 2-5 on the road, but 5-2 ATS on the road. The Bills have lost a slew of very close games this season (4 losses by 3 points, 3 of those in overtime, plus a 5 point loss to Miami), but they’ve also gotten blown out of the water a few times, and this helps explain their rather poor -7.4 average scoring differential. They are 4-3 over their last 7 games, and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10. The Jets are 10-5 (8-7 ATS), but despite being 5 games over .500, they have a relatively weak +2.1 average scoring differential. They are just 4-3 at their new home (3-4 ATS). The Jets were fortunate to win a number of close games earlier in the year, and they got off to a 9-2 start, but they’ve stumbled recently. They are just 1-3 in their last 4 and they are 3-6 in their last 9 ATS.
Injuries: The only new development is that of Sanchez, who is doubtful with that shoulder issue. Mark Brunell will likely get the start.
Series History: Back in week 4, the Jets pummeled the Bills in Buffalo, 38-14. They have won 4 of 5 in the series. Strangely, they’ve lost 3 of 4 at home to the Bills. Buffalo still holds a 54-46 lead in the all-time series (including a 1-0 edge in the playoffs).
Team Goals: This is the 6th straight losing season for the Bills and their 10th non-winning season in the last 11 years. If the Bills lose to finish the year 4-12, it will be their worst season since 2001, and just their 2nd season with at least 12 losses since 1986. For the Jets, a win would mean their first season with at least 11 wins since 1998, and just the 4th in their history.
Miami (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 2
Comment: The Patriots are usually pretty interesting regardless of the circumstances. And you know all of the Pats fans will be holding their breaths, hoping nobody gets hurt.
Playoff Implications: None. The Patriots have locked up the #1 seed in the AFC.
Records and Trends: It’s been another weird season for the Dolphins. They are 7-8 (8-7 ATS) and have a -2.0 average scoring differential. Almost all of their success has come on the road, where they are 6-1 (6-1 ATS). The Fins are 1-3 in their last 4 (1-3 ATS). The Pats have the league’s best record at 13-2 (9-5-1 ATS) and they are a perfect 7-0 at home (3-3-1 ATS). They have a league best +11.6 average scoring differential. The Patriots have won 7 in a row and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. They’ve also won 16 straight regular season home games.
Injuries: Karlos Dansby is doubtful for Miami with a toe injury. Usually you would ex
pect a team like the Patriots to rest everybody this week, but you never really know with the Patriots. I know that a lot of coaches like to play their starters for a series or two and then pull them. I’m thinking this is probably what they’ll do. Belichick may want Tom Brady and the offensive guys to play some so that they don’t go 3 full weeks without any live action. Still, if I was a Patriots fan, I would not want Brady or Wes Welker to play a single down. They’ve seen both of those guys do down to knee injuries (including Welker in last season’s finale). I’d rather worry about rust than risk a catastrophe.
Series History: The Dolphins have given the Patriots some problems in recent years, but in week 4 of this season New England romped in Miami, winning 41-14, sparked by their special teams. The Pats have won 5 of 7 in the series and 7 of 9 against the Dolphins at home. Miami still has a 50-40 edge in the all-time series (Pats have a 2-1 edge in the playoffs).
Team Goals: The Dolphins need a win to avoid their 5th losing season in the last 7 years. They have made just 1 postseason appearance in the last 9 years. This is the 10th straight winning season for New England and their 8th straight double digit win season. The Patriots need a win to finish the year with at least 14 wins for the 4th time in the last 8 years. They have won 8 division titles in the last 10 years.
Sunday’s Late Games
Jacksonville (-1.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans pull off the upset
Interest/Importance Rating: 3
Comment: This rating might seem a little low, but it’s pretty hard to take the Jaguars serious right now. They need help to get into the playoffs and they’ll have to win without two of their key players.
Playoff Implications: The Jags would be eliminated with a loss. They would also be eliminated if the Colts win, but if they win and the Colts lose to Tennessee, the Jags would win the AFC South and be the #4 seed.
Records and Trends: The Jags have lost 2 in a row (0-2 ATS) and 3 of their last 5. They are now 8-7 overall (9-6 ATS) and 3-4 on the road (4-3 ATS). Despite their winning record, they have a pretty bad -3.3 average scoring differential. The Texans, meanwhile, have a -3.6 average scoring differential, but they are 5-10 (5-10 ATS). The Texans are 3-4 at home and just 2-5 ATS at home. They have suffered heartbreaking losses week after week. Houston has now lost 4 straight and 8 of 9. They’ve lost their last 4 ATS and they are just 2-9 ATS over their last 11.
Injuries: David Garrard is out. Period. Thumb surgery earlier this week put the matter at rest. It’s unclear whether or not he might be able to make it back at some point in the playoffs. Nobody seems to be breaking their back trying to find out the answer to that mystery at this point, as the Jags need the Colts to lose and need to beat the Texans with Trent Edwards at QB to get there. Edwards has played in 3 games this season (1 with the Jags, 2 with Buffalo) and just 11 over the last 2 years. He hasn’t taken a snap since week 6. This isn’t even the worst news for the Jags. Maurice Jones Drew has been ruled out with a knee injury. There’s a chance he could be back for the playoffs. If the Jags could somehow win in Houston without Garrard and MJD, and the Colts somehow lose to the Titans, it would be one of the more unexpected last second playoff scenario switches ever. It’s pretty tough not to write off the Jags at this point.
Series History: The Jags won at home against the Texans in week 10 on a Hail Mary TD with no time on the clock, taking it by the score of 31-24. They’ve won the last 3 in this series, including their last game on the road, but they had lost the previous 3 in Houston. This series hasn’t been going on for too many years, but it’s been very competitive. The Jags hold a 9-8 edge in the all-time series and just a 369-363 edge in points over those 17 games.
Team Goals: Jacksonville will be trying for just their 4th winning season and 3rd playoff appearance over the last 11 years. This is Houston’s first losing year since 2006, but it is the 8th non-winning season in the franchise’s 9-year existence. A loss would give them their worst record since 2005. They have never reached the playoffs.
San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver
Pick: Chargers cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 2
Comment: The Chargers queefed again last week, taking away 95% of the interest in this game. However, I am interested to see what Tim Tebow does this week. I have to admit, he’s been much more effective the last 2 weeks than I thought he would be. It’s hard to know how hard San Diego will play, as they obviously did not go into the season expecting to be eliminated from playoff contention heading into the season finale.
Playoff Implications: There are none.
Records and Trends: The Chargers are 8-7 (8-7 ATS) and just 2-5 on the road (2-5 ATS). They are just a game over .500, despite boasting a +7.6 average scoring differential, 3rd best in the entire NFL. The Chargers are 6-2 in their last 8 (6-2 ATS) but just 2-2 over their last 4 (2-2 ATS). The Broncos won last week to snap a 5 game skid but they are still just 2-9 in their last 11 (3-8 ATS). They are 4-11 on the season (5-10 ATS) and 3-4 at home (3-4 ATS). They have a hideous -8.1 average scoring differential.
Injuries: To be fair to the Chargers, they have dealt with some major injuries. Patrick Crayton has missed the last 5 games, Antonio Gates has missed the last 3, Malcolm Floyd has missed the last 2, and last week Mike Tolbert suffered a neck injury. All 4 of those guys could very well miss the season finale. Gates will for sure, as he has been placed on IR. Demaryius Thomas has missed 5 in a row for the Broncos and Champ Bailey is doubtful this week with an ankle injury.
Series History: The Chargers walked over the Broncos at home in week 11, winning 35-14. They have won 3 of 4 in this series and 7 of 9. They have won 3 of the last 4 in Denver. The Broncos still hold a 54-46-1 edge in the all-time series.
Team Goals: San Diego’s streak of 4 straight division titles will end this season, as they will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2005. This will be their 7th straight non-losing season and if they win it will be their 6th winning season in the last 7 years. The Broncos have now had 4 straight non-winning seasons and they will miss the playoffs for a 5th straight year. If the Broncos lose this Sunday, they will finish with 12 losses for the first time in franchise history.
Arizona (+6) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners win but Cardinals beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 1
Comment: This is by far the worst game of week 17.
Playoff Implications: Ah-bh-uh--Playoffs! Playoffs? Don’t talk about, don’t talk about---playoffs??? Are you kiddin’ me? Playoffs???
Records and Trends: These guys suck. Both teams come in 5-10 overall and 5-10 ATS. Arizona is just 1-6 on the road (2-5 ATS), while the Niners are 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS). The Niners have been outscored by 4.8 points a game, while the Cards have a -7.6 average scoring differential. San Fran has lost 2 straight and 3 of 4 and they finally fired Mike Singletary last week with one game remaining on the schedule. Jim Tomsula is the interim coach for a team that is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11. The Cards have actually been playing better lately, winning 2 of their last 3 (2-1 ATS).
Injuries: Frank Gore is out for the year. I have no idea which Smith will start for the Niners. Patrick Willis is doubtful with a hand injury.
Series History: These two played on MNF for some reason in week 12. The Cards were absolutely humiliated in front of their home fans, 27-6. The Niners have won 3 straight in the series and 2 of the last 3 at home against the Cardinals. San Francisco holds a 22-16 lead in the all-time series.
Team Goals: Arizona’s streak of back to back postseason appearances is over, as is their streak of 3 straight non-losing records. This is their 19 double digit loss season in the last 33 years. A loss on Sunday would give them at least 11 losses in a season for the 16th time in 32 years. That’s awful. The Niners have now had 8 consecutive non-winning seasons. This is there 7th losing season in 8 years and their 9th losing season in the last 12 years. They have now lost double digit games in 6 of the last 12 years. In the franchise’s first 53 years (1946-1998), the Niners had only 3 seasons with at least 11 losses. If they lose on Sunday it will be their 5th season of at least 11 losses in the 12 years since.
New York Giants (-4) @ Washington
Pick: Giants win but Skins beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 4
Comment: This should be a good one. The Giants need help but they really need to win no matter what just to finish this season with a winning taste in their mouths.
Playoff Implications: The G-men will be eliminated with a loss. They need a win and a loss by the Packers to grab the #6 seed.
Records and Trends: The Giants are in the midst of another late season collapse, having lost their last 2 and going just 3-4 in their last 7. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7. The Skins snapped a 4 game skid last week and they have won 2 straight ATS. Still, they are just 2-6 in their last 8. The Giants are 9-6 overall (7-8 ATS) and 4-3 on the road (4-3 ATS). Washington is 6-9 overall (7-6-2 ATS) and just 2-5 at home (2-3-2 ATS). The Giants have a +2.9 average scoring differential, while the Skins have been outscored by 4.8 points a game.
Injuries: The Giants have been hammered by injuries at the receiver position. Steve Smith is done for the year and Hakeem Nicks is doubtful with a toe injury.
Series History: The Giants won easily at home in week 13, beating Washington 31-7 for their 5th straight win in the series. They have now won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Skins. They’ve won 4 straight and 6 of 8 against Washington on the road. I was blown away to learn that the Giants have a 91-62-4 edge in the all-time series (1-1 in the postseason).
Team Goals: This is the 6th straight non-losing season for New York. The reason New York’s huge edge in this series surprised me so much was that the G-men went through a long, long stretch from early in the Super Bowl era to the early 80’s when they were not a good team. From 1964 to 1983, the Giants had only 1 postseason appearance and zero double digit win seasons over a 20 year period. They will be trying for their 14th playoff appearance and their 13th double digit win season in the last 27 years (1984-2010). For Washington, this will be their 3rd straight non-winning season. If they lose on Sunday it will be their 5th double digit loss season in the last 8 years. The Redskins had 13 postseason appearances and only 1 double digit loss season in 22 years from 1971-1992. They’ve made only 3 playoff appearances in the last 18 years and a loss on Sunday would mean their 9th double digit loss season in the last 18 years.
Chicago (+10) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Bears beat the spread
Interest/Importance Rating: 4
Comment: As I mentioned earlier, the Bears will know if they can improve their position by the time this game gets started. Even if they can’t, I would think they would love to help keep the Packers out of the postseason. Should be a good game.
Playoff Implications: The Bears have won the division and clinched a bye. If the Saints and Falcons lose, the Bears can grab the #1 seed in the NFC with a victory in this game. For the Packers, a victory gets them into the playoffs as the #6 seed. If they lose, they could still get in if the Giants and Bucs also lose.
Records and Trends: The Bears are 11-4 overall (8-6-1) and they have a sparkling 5-1 road record (4-2 ATS). Green Bay is 9-6 (9-6 ATS) and 6-1 at Lambeau (5-2 ATS). The Packers have not yet clinched a postseason bid, but they have outscored opponents by 9.4 points a game this season, 2nd best in the NFL. Chicago has a +3.7 average scoring differential. Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers for a while and they are just 2-3 in their last 5 (3-2 ATS). Chicago has been rolling for a couple of months, winning 7 of their last 8, and going 5-2 ATS in their last 7.
Injuries: We know that the Packers have been crushed by injuries again this season but they are fairly healthy at this point. Atari Bigby is doubtful with a groin injury.
Series History: These two have been going at it for a while. Chicago actually has a fairly big lead in the all-time series, leading 92-82-5 (including 1-0 in the playoffs). The first matchup this season was in week 3 at Chicago, with the Bears taking a close one, 20-17. This has been a competitive series lately, with the Bears winning 8 of the last 13. They have lost the last 2 at Lambeau but they had won 4 straight prior to that.
Team Goals: The Packers and Bears have been around a long time and they’ve had good and bad stretches. The Bears had only 1 winning season in 9 years from 1996-2004, but they’ve had 4 winning seasons in their last 6 (2005-2010). They made only 2 playoff appearances in 13 years from 1992-2004, but they’ve made it 3 times in the 6 years since (all 3 as division champs). The Packers were irrelevant for many years between Lombardi and Favre. From 1973-1991, the Packers had only 2 winning seasons in 19 years. In the 19 seasons since then the Packers have finished with a winning record 15 times. From 1968 to 1992 (the first year without Lombardi to the first year of Mike Holmgren) the Packers had only 2 playoff appearances and 2 double digit win seasons. On Sunday, they will be trying for their 13th playoff appearance and their 11th double digit win season in the last 18 years
Tennessee (+9.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 4
Comment: The Colts are this close to keeping their great run of postseason appearances alive. It shouldn’t be too difficult, but they’ve had a habit of making things harder than they should be this season.
Playoff Implications: The Colts would clinch the AFC South title with a win or a Jags loss. If the Colts win and the Chiefs lose they would move from the #4 seed to the #3 seed.
Records and Trends: Tennessee’s season started off well but it’s been going downhill for the last couple of months, as they have lost 7 of 8 (2-6 ATS). They have a +1.3 average scoring differential this year but they are just 6-9 (7-8 ATS). Injuries and uncharacteristic mistakes by Peyton Manning had the Colts slumping a month ago, but they have won 3 straight and 2 straight ATS. They have only outscored opponents by 3.0 points a game on the year but they are 9-6 (8-6-1 ATS). The Colts are 5-2 at home (4-3 ATS), while the Titans are 3-4 on the road (3-4 ATS).
Injuries: The Colts have lost some key players but they may be able to get into the playoffs anyway.
Series History: These two played in Tennessee just a few weeks ago. On Thursday night in week 14, the Colts jumped out to a 21-0 lead and had to hang on for a 30-28 victory. The Colts have won the last 4 and 12 of the last 15 against the Titans. They have won 6 of 7 at home against Tennessee. Indy has a 19-13 edge in the all-time series (0-1 in the playoffs).
Team Goals: This will be the first losing season for the Titans since 2005 and just the 6th for the franchise in the last 24 years. A loss on Sunday would mean just their 4th double digit loss season of the last 24 years. Coach Jeff Fisher has kept the team relevant during his tenure but they’ve had just 2 winning seasons and 2 playoff appearances in the last 7 years. This will be the 9th straight winning season and the 11th in the last 12 years for Indianapolis. They’re trying for their 9th straight playoff appearance and their 9th straight double digit win season (also would be their 11th playoff appearance and 11th double digit win season in the last 12 years). This would be the 7th division title in 8 years for Indy. Their recent run of excellence has come after a lengthy period of irrelevance. From 1978-1994, the Colts had only 3 winning seasons, 1 playoff appearance, and 0 double digit win seasons in 17 years. They’ve now had 13 winning seasons in the 16 years since, and they’ll be trying for their 13 playoff appearance and their 11th double digit win season over that time.
A Brief Interuption
We (the Dawgs) just lost to Central Florida, 10-6, to finish the season 6-7. I did not think this would happen under Mark Richt. Still a little bit hard to believe it happened. But it did. Gotta make a change now. If you take away games against Louisiana-Lafayette, Idaho State, and Vandy, we went 3-7 with losses to Mississippi State, Colorado, and Central Florida. Unless Kentucky beats Pittsburgh, Georgia will end the year without a win against a team with a winning record. That’s a little much for me, and believe me, I’m a very realistic Georgia fan. On behalf of all Georgia fans I want to apologize to the fans of every other SEC team (accept for Vandy) for making the conference look bad.
Dallas (+7.5) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 1.5
Comment: Philly’s loss to the Vikes last week took almost everything out of this game. Michael Vick has now been ruled out. It will be interesting to see how Kevin Kolb plays, considering that Vick could go down during the playoffs at any moment.
Playoff Implications: None. Philly’s locked into the #3 seed.
Records and Trends: The Cowboys had been playing well since the firing of Wade Phillips, but they went down against Arizona on Christmas. They are 5-10 overall (6-9 ATS) and 3-4 on the road (3-4 ATS). Philly’s loss at home against the Vikings last Tuesday was stunning. That snapped a 3 game win streak. They are now 10-5 (7-8 ATS) and just 4-3 at home (3-4 ATS). The Cowboys have a -2.9 average scoring differential, which isn’t bad for a 5-10 team. They are 4-3 in their last 7 (5-2 ATS). They have lost their last 2 ATS. The Eagles have outscored opponents by 4.2 points a game. They have won 6 of their last 8 games (4-4 ATS).
Injuries: We now know that Vick won’t play and Kevin Kolb will be the starter. Jon Kitna is questionable for the Boys with a strained oblique. Stephen McGee would be the QB if Kitna can’t go.
Series History: These two played just a few weeks ago. The Cowboys played the Eagles tough at home in week 14, losing 30-27. That win snapped Philly’s 3-game losing streak in the series. They are 2-3 against the Cowboys in their last 5 at home. The Cowboys hold a 58-45 lead in the all-time series (including 3-1 in the playoffs).
Team Goals: Dallas’ streak of 5 straight winning seasons has come to an end. If they lose on Sunday they will finish with at least 11 losses for the first time since 2002. It’s their 6th losing season in the last 14 years. This will be the 5th straight non-losing season for the Eagles and their 10th in the last 11 years. It will be their 9th winning season and their 8th double digit win season in the last 11 years. If they win on Sunday it will be the 7th season of at least 11 wins in the last 11 years. They’ve won 6 division titles in the last 10 years.
Sunday Night’s Game
St. Louis (-2.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Rams cover
Interest/Importance Rating: 5
Comment: This is going to be great. It’ll be like hooking up in 6th grade: you weren’t real good and you didn’t accomplish much, but to you it seemed like a really big deal. Also, there were probably braces and acne involved. Anyway, this is going to be fun. Oh, and in case you’re wondering, I’m hoping for a tie. That way the Rams will go to the playoffs with a losing record, and Pete Carroll will stay home. It only seems fair, since he bailed out on the Trojans. For the record, I don’t think they should have been put on probation, but bailing was still weak.
Playoff Implications: It’s win and you’re in, lose and you’re out for both teams. The winner will be the division champ and the #4 seed.
Records and Trends: There’s still a chance for the division winner to have a .500 record, which is way better than the division winner being 7-9. The Rams are 7-8 (10-5 ATS) but just 2-5 on the road (5-2 ATS). They have only been outscored by 1.9 points a game, but they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 (1-2 ATS). The Seahawks are simply a bad football team. They are 6-9 (6-9 ATS) and only 4-3 at home (4-3 ATS). They’ve lost 3 in a row and 7 of 9 (2-7 ATS). Their average scoring differential is a ridiculous -7.1. And yet they could very well be hosting a first round playoff game.
Injuries: Matt Hasselbeck is doubtful with a hip injury. This is bad news for Seattle because Charlie Whitehurst is not an NFL quarterback.
Series History: Back in week 4, the Rams beat down the Searats, 20-3, at home. It was actually a huge step for the Rams, as it snapped a 10-game losing streak against Seattle. They have still lost their last 5 and 7 of their last 9 in Seattle. The Seahawks hold a 14-11 edge in the all-time series (The Rams have a 1-0 edge in the postseason).
Team Goals: The Rams have already won 7 games this season, which is 1 more than they had in the 3 previous seasons combined. It will be a 7th straight non-winning season but they still have a chance to snap their skid of 3 consecutive losing seasons. This would be their first playoff appearance since 2004 and their first division title since 2003. The Seapigeons have already clinched a 3rd straight losing season, and yet they still have a chance for their first postseason bid and their first division title since 2007. It would be their 6th postseason appearance in the last 8 years. If the Seahawks win, they will be the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record in a full season (a pair of 4-5 teams made it into the playoff tournament following the strike shortened 1982 season).
