Thursday, December 2, 2010

The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (12-4); Straight Up: (12-4)

Season: Vs. Spread (80-91-5); Straight Up: (104-72)

Week 12 Review: Obviously this was my best week of the year. I think my luck has shifted from college football to the NFL.

Week 13 Preview: Nobody likes the BCS, but I have to admit that I like the way that the college football and pro football seasons complement each other. The great things about the college football season are the rivalries and the dramatic impact that even one loss can have. But the NFL season has great aspects as well. There are no Ohio State vs. Kent State matchups in the NFL. Every game is relatively evenly matched. And on each and every Sunday you can count on there being at least a handful of must-see games. This week the biggest games will be played after the early Sunday slate. However, there are a number of teams facing near must-win games this week. I’m looking to keep my “hot” streak going this week. I still have a long way to go to get back to .500 ATS.

Thursday Night’s Game

Houston (+9.5) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: This isn’t a great matchup, but the Eagles are one of the more interesting teams right now. I’m curious to see how they react on a short week after last week’s wakeup call in Chicago. It shouldn’t be too hard for them to rebound against the Texans and their porous defense. Yes, I know Houston is coming off of a shutout victory, but Rusty Smith will not be under center for Philly this week. Despite the NFL’s best efforts, I doubt the Texans will be competitive this week even with Andre Johnson.

As far as that situation goes, I don’t think Johnson should have been suspended. He was ejected from last week’s game and fined. That’s enough of a punishment for me. Having said that, the decision not to suspend Johnson surprised me, considering the NFL’s frantic attempts to erase violence from the sport this season. I do think that the fact that the Texans are playing on the NFL Network this week had something to do with the curious decision. However, I think the fact that Johnson pulled Cortland Finnegan’s helmet off before trying to knock his head off was a bigger factor. Clearly, touching an opponent’s helmet is the worst thing you can do, and had Johnson actually gone to town on Finnegan with his helmet on, he likely would have been placed in solitary confinement and given only bread and water for the next 60 days.

Houston’s 20-0 win over Tennessee last week snapped a 4-game losing skid for the Texans. Despite that lengthy slide, Houston’s dreams of a first ever playoff appearance are still alive due to the surprising change of fortune for both the Colts and the Titans. However, at 5-6 the Texans will probably need to go 4-1 the rest of the way to have any shot at making the postseason. They play at Philly this week and then host the Ravens on Monday night in week 14. They must win one of those two games, and obviously that’s going to be tough to do. They have been outscored by their opponents this season and are 2-3 on the road. They have beaten the spread in their last two games.

As unbeatable as the Eagles have looked at times this season, they have still lost 4 games. It’s easy to say that they would have a better record if they had gone with Vick from day one, but I’m not sure that’s true. Remember, he played almost all of the season opening loss to Green Bay. He started the game in which they lost to Washington before leaving with an injury. Vick getting knocked out of the game had nothing to do with the fact that he had started the year as the backup, not to mention the fact that they were already behind by 2 scores before Vick got hurt. Vick didn’t play at all in the loss to the Titans, but again, the injury had nothing to do with him starting the year on the bench, and one of the downsides of having Vick as a quarterback is the possibility that he could be injured at any time. Finally, the Eagles were beaten with Vick playing his 4th straight complete game last Sunday. So I think 7-4 is about where they should be. The Eagles have won 3 straight and they have outscored opponents by 4.8 points a game on the season, but they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.

Sunday’s Early Games

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Jags beat the spread
Comment: This is one of nine games between division rivals this week. It’s tempting to call this an elimination game, but then you remember that the Colts are just 6-5. Jacksonville lost a tough game by 4 points to the Giants on the road last week, seeing their 3 game win streak come to an end, but they were due for a tough loss after the good luck they’ve had in recent weeks. They are 6-5 on the year (7-4 ATS), despite having been outscored by an average of 4.9 points a game this season. They are 2-3 on the road so far, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.

Last week started off badly for the Titans, as they had to deal with the overtime loss to the Skins, another emotional/psychological meltdown by Vince Young, and the news that he would miss the rest of the season due to injury. As bad as that was, the end of the week was even worse, as the Titans got shutout by the worst defense in the NFL, dropping their 4th straight (0-4 ATS during that stretch).

As much as Tennessee’s season appears finished, they might not be quite dead yet, as Kerry Collins is expected to play this Sunday. I know that hardly seems like cause for a parade in Nashville, but I think we can at least upgrade their status from “basically zombies” to “critical but stable condition.” They are 5-6 (just 2-3 at home after going 17-7 at home in the 3 years prior to this one), but they have still outscored opponents by 3.6 points a game this season. For confidence, Titans fans only have to look to week 6 of this season, when Tennessee destroyed the Jags on Monday Night Football, winning 30-3 in Jacksonville. The Titans have won 6 of their last 8 games against the Jags, including 3 of 4 at home.

Warning: Superfluous and excessive and overdone (see what I did there?) historical interlude coming up ahead. Those who haven’t spent at least a year of their life watching NFL Films should feel free to skip to the next game.



Let me briefly touch on some history here. When talking about rivalries in pro football, you’d probably go a long time before mentioning Jacksonville and Tennessee. But there have been times where this was most certainly a rivalry. It’s an unlikely and almost unique rivalry, because it involves two teams from SEC country who have not been in their current locations for very long. The Jaguars were born into the league in 1995, the same year that Jeff Fisher became head coach of the Houston Oilers. The Oilers moved to Tennessee in 1997 and took on the name “Titans” in 1999.

To state the obvious, there wasn’t a lot of history between these two at that time. But one of the many things that makes pro football a special game is that its structure allows for rivalries to spring up in short periods of time. In the Jags’ first ever game, they lost 10-3 at home to the Oilers. A few weeks later, the Jags went to Houston and defeated the Oilers 17-16 for the first win in franchise history.

The following season the Oilers again won in Jacksonville by 7 points, but in week 15 the 6-7 Jags defeated the 7-6 Oilers, 23-17, in Houston. The Jags would end up sneaking in the playoffs at 9-7, while the Oilers finished at 8-8, out of the playoffs, and then out of town. Jacksonville went on a surprising run in the playoffs, and that momentum carried on into 1997 when they went 11-5. In their first season in Tennessee, the Oilers started off 1-4 but then won 6 of their next 8 games. Both of their losses during that stretch came at the hands of the Jags. They wound up 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The next year the Jags won the division, while Tennessee again went 8-8 and missed the playoffs, but a 16-13 Tennessee victory at Jacksonville in week 15 cost the Jags the #2 seed in the playoffs.

It was the following season, 1999, the year that the Oilers were renamed the Titans, that this rivalry would hit its peak. The Jags were the dominant team of the AFC that year, going 14-2 to earn the #1 seed, finishing 2nd in the NFL in scoring differential behind only Kurt Warner’s Rams. The Jags beat everyone they played that season except for one team: the Titans. The Titans beat the Jags in Jacksonville by a point in week 3, and then in week 16, Tennessee rocked Jacksonville 41-14 to end their 11-game win streak.

It appeared that the Jags would get the last laugh, as they finished a game ahead of the Titans in the division, earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville would get a first round bye and then a game against the 9-7 Dolphins, who they wiped the floor with in a 62-7 rout. Meanwhile, the Titans had to play a Wild Card game against the 11-5 Bills.

It looked like the Titans were finished, down a point with just a few seconds remaining. But then a miracle occurred and Tennessee survived. Their reward was a trip to Indy to play the 13-3 Colts. They survived again. The only team left in the AFC for Jacksonville to beat, was the only team in the AFC capable of beating them.

On Championship Sunday in Jacksonville, the Jags out-gained the Titans, had more first downs, and forced 4 Tennessee turnovers. They scored first and led at the half. But again, there was a problem. Several problems really, but it all happened in a matter of moments. With the Jags leading 14-10 in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee scored a touchdown to take the lead, then sacked Mark Brunell in the end zone for a safety, then returned the ensuing free kick for a touchdown. All of the sudden the Titans were ahead by 12 points.

The Jags committed 9 penalties for 100 yards, turned the ball over 6 times, allowed a safety, and gave up a kick return for a touchdown. Tennessee won 33-14 to go to the Super Bowl and end Jacksonville’s year. The Jags were 0-3 against the Titans, and 15-0 against everybody else. I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m fairly certain that nothing like that has happened in the history of football before or since.

We’ll never know for sure, but if “The Music City Miracle” hadn’t occurred, it’s likely that the Jags would have gone to the Super Bowl. They never really recovered, dropping to 7-9 the next season, the first of 4 straight losing seasons. But the Brunell/Coughlin era in Jacksonville really ended in that game against the Titans.

The Titans went 13-3 again and won the division in 2000. However, the Football Gods would give Tennessee a taste of cruel fate in the end, as they would be done in by another division rival. The Titans lost their first game of the year (to the Bills of all teams), but then reeled off 8 straight wins (including another one over the Jags), before the Ravens came to Tennessee and won by a point in week 11. Two weeks later the Jags got a small measure of revenge, defeating the Titans 16-13 at home.

Again, however, it looked like the Titans would get the last laugh, as they finished a game ahead of the 12-4 Ravens, earning the #1 seed, and forcing the Ravens to play a game in the Wild Card round. But Baltimore won and that set up a 3rd game with the Titans in Tennessee.

Tennessee’s time to burn had come. They would out-gain the Ravens 317-134, and have a 23-6 edge in first downs. They led 10-7 in the 3rd quarter, but in a matter of moments everything went wrong. The Ravens tied it at 10. Then the Titans lined up for a short field goal, but the Ravens blocked it and returned it 90 yards for a TD. Moments later, Ray Lewis stole the ball away from Eddie George, returned it 50 yards for a score, and put the Titans in the grave.

The Titans went just 7-9 the next season, but unlike that era’s Jags team, the Fisher/McNair Titans would recover from the loss to the Ravens. They went 11-5 in 2002 and then 12-4 the next year, though they would never again return to the Super Bowl.

In 2004 the Titans finished in last place with a 5-11 record, while the Jags went 9-7 for their first winning season since their Super Bowl dreams died in 1999. The Jags started that year 6-3, but a loss to the Titans at home by 3 points in week 11 started them on a 3 game losing skid, and they wound up missing the playoffs.

The rivalry took a year off in 2005, as the Jags went 12-4 and the Titans sank to 4-12. Things heated up again the following year. Tennessee began the year looking like cellar dwellers again. They started 2-7, losing 37-7 to the Jags along the way. In week 14, Jacksonville put an eye-opening beat down on the mighty Colts, rushing for 375 yards in a 44-17 rout. They were 8-5 and closing in on the playoffs again, with a trip to Nashville up next. But this was not the same Tennessee team they had crushed earlier in the season. In fact, they had won 4 straight, and they made it 5 in a row, knocking off the Jags and sending them on a season crushing 3-game slide. In the end both teams finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

The next year the teams split their 2 regular season meetings, each winning on the road. The Jags went 11-5, while Tennessee went 10-6, with both teams making the playoffs. In 2008, the Titans swept the regular season series and finished with the AFC’s best record at 13-3, while the Jags went 5-11. Last year the teams split the season series, with the Jags finishing 7-9, a game back of the 8-8 Titans. Neither team reached the playoffs.


Washington (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Skins beat the spread
Comment: Let’s welcome in those who made it through the Jax/Tenn historical review. Props to the readers that made it through without suddenly realizing they were face down in a puddle of their own drool halfway through. Fuck editors and fuck maximum word count restrictions. Now on to the next matchup.

I think we can say that this is a must-win for the Skins. This is bad news for Washingtonians, because the Skins have lost 7 of 8 to the G-Men, including 4 of 5 on the road. The last 4 in this series haven’t been close, with the Giants taking all 4, while holding the Skins to an average of 11 points and 276 yards a game. The Redskins are 5-6, but they’ve lost 3 of 4 (1-3 ATS) and they’ve been outscored by 4.3 points a game this season. The Redskins are also a banged up team. On the positive side, they are 3-2 on the road.

New York is 7-4 (5-6 ATS) and 4-2 at home (2-4 ATS), but they are also dealing with some injuries. They are missing both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks. The Giants have lost 2 of 3 (0-3 ATS) since their earlier 5-game win streak. It’s a big game for the G-Men as well, as they have a fairly tough schedule ahead.

Cleveland (+4.5) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins win but Browns beat the spread
Comment: The Dolphins proved again last week that you’re probably better off avoiding them all together when betting on NFL football. They are now 7-4 ATS. The good news for the Dolphins is that Chad Henne is back, meaning Tyler Thigpen is safely back on the sidelines, baseball cap and headset placed firmly on his head. The bad news is that Brandon Marshall is still dealing with a hamstring injury. They’re also just 1-4 at home this season and they haven’t won back to back games since starting the year 2-0. At 6-5, this is a must-win for them.

Despite being surprisingly competitive this season, the Browns are just 4-7 ATS. They’ve lost 3 in a row ATS. They are 1-4 on the road and they really need Colt McCoy to be healthy enough to go this week. Even if McCoy does nothing but hand the ball off to Peyton Hillis all day, Browns fans will take it if it means not giving Jake Delhomme a chance to throw game changing pick-sixes to the likes of Captain Munnerlyn.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: A bit of a strange spread. The Bears have won 4 straight (3-0-1 ATS) and are now 8-3. They are 3-1 on the road (3-1 ATS) and have outscored opponents by an average of 4.6 points a game this season. They have won 5 in a row against the Lions and 4 of their last 5 in Detroit.


Despite a 2-9 record, Detroit has been a competitive team for most of the season. They are still 7-4 ATS. However, the loss of Matthew Stafford again for the rest of the season, along with the continuous disappointment and pain of losing close games seems to have taken a toll on the will of the Lions. They have lost 4 straight and 3 straight ATS. They are 2-3 at home (4-1 ATS), but it now appears that Shaun Hill is also going to be unable to play for a while. That means Drew Stanton will be the QB that goes up against the Chicago defense on Sunday.

My only explanation for the spread not being bigger is that it must go back to week 1, when the Lions had a victory in Chicago taken away from them due to a ludicrous interpretation of the rules which overturned a game winning touchdown catch by Calvin Johnson. That gave the game to the Bears, 19-14. I suppose the Bears are also coming off of an emotional, hard hitting game against the Eagles, while the Lions have been sitting around since Thanksgiving. Detroit could also have Jahvid Best available for this game. Still, at this point I think we should expect things to go poorly for the Lions in the 2nd half, even if they do come out with more energy and focus and get off to a good start.

Denver (+9.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: If the memory of the events of week 1 are effecting the line in the Chicago-Detroit game, how do you explain this one? This is week 13. In week 10, the Chiefs went into Denver and got it handed to them, 49-29. The Broncos so demoralized the Chiefs that head coach Todd Haley’s feelings seemed to be genuinely hurt. He refused to shake hands with Josh McDaniels after the game, turning instead to walk off the field and into the locker room, presumably to find his mom so he could tell her how mean Josh was for scoring so many points. Look, I hate the stupid traditional mid-field hand shake thing. And the only time I’d shake McDaniels’ hand would be if he was using it to cling to the edge of a cliff. But if there’s one thing I hate worse than the postgame hand shake tradition and Josh McDaniels, it’s people complaining about someone running up the score in professional sports.

Anyway, my original point was that this line doesn’t seem to be effected at all by the fairly recent beat down that Denver put on Kansas City. If you take that game out of the equation, the line makes a lot of sense. Denver is 3-8 (3-8 ATS) and 1-3 on the road (1-3 ATS). They have lost 6 of their last 7 (1-6 ATS) and they have been outscored by an average of 6.7 points a game this season. The Chiefs are 7-4 (7-4 ATS) and 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). They have won their last 2 games (2-0 ATS) and they have outscored opponents by an average of 4.9 points a game this season. The Chiefs have also won 5 of 7 and 11 of 15 at home against Denver, although the Broncos did win in KC last season. The Chiefs could have an extra weapon this time, as Dexter McCluster may be able to go this Sunday.

San Francisco (+9.5) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Ah, now here’s a spread that makes sense. The Niners won big on Monday night, but I’m not sure how much importance we can really put on that victory. I know they would all be in their 50’s and 60’s (and they wouldn’t have Sweetness), but I think if Mike Singletary and his teammates from the ’85 Bears had decided to get together and play the Cardinals last Monday they would have been able to win just as convincingly.

San Fran is 4-7 and 1-4 on the road. They have won 4 of their last 6, but it will be a short week for them, and when they do make the trip it will be without Frank Gore, who is now out for the season with a hip injury.

The Packers had their 4 game win streak snapped in Atlanta last week, but they are 7-4 (6-5 ATS), 4-1 at home, and have outscored opponents by an average of 9.4 points a game this season (best in the league). Green Bay has won 8 straight regular season meetings with the Niners.

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: Is there anyone out there who doesn’t root for the Bills? Unless they’re playing your team…or someone competing with your team for a playoff spot…or you bet against them…or they’re playing your fantasy team’s defense…but other than that, who the hell doesn’t root for the Bills?

This has to be one of the most dangerous 2-9 times of all-time. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Bills are 1-4 on the road, but 4-1 ATS on the road. They are still a little banged up, with DB Terrence McGee doubtful for this week, and CJ Spiller questionable. And they have been outscored by an average of 6 points a game this season. However, over their last 6 games they have 2 wins and 4 losses, with all 4 losses coming by 3 points, and 3 of those 4 losses coming in overtime.

Inspired by the firing of Brad Childress, the Vikings managed to eke out a win at Washington last week, ending a 9-game losing streak in road games going back to last year. They also snapped a 5-game skid ATS. Still, they have not won back to back games yet this season. They are just 4-7 and 3-8 ATS. They are 3-2 at home (2-3 ATS).

The Vikes got a scare when Adrian Peterson was hurt last game, but it looks like he’s going to be fine for this week. Bernard Berrian is questionable again this week. Since catching 9 passes for 89 yards in the win against Arizona, Berrian has missed 2 of 3 games with a groin injury and did not catch a pass in the one game he played in. Every game is a must-win for the Vikings at this point, and even if they run the table from here on out they might not make the playoffs.

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: I still can’t figure out if the Saints are capable of being the team they were last season when they won the Super Bowl. They are 8-3 (5-6 ATS), but they aren’t winning games very impressively, and most of the teams they have beaten are not among the league’s best. Maybe we shouldn’t be expecting them to win the way they did last year. They know they can win it all if they get into the playoffs, so maybe they’re playing in typical defending champion style, pacing themselves and taking each opponent’s best shot. They have won 4 straight (3-1 ATS) and they are 4-1 on the road (2-3 ATS). They’ve outscored opponents by 6.2 points a game this season.

Like the Saints, the Bengals will be playing for the first time since Thanksgiving. Unlike the Saints, the Bengals suck. They have lost 8 straight (1-7 ATS) and have been outscored by 5.7 points a game this year. They are just 1-4 at home (1-4 ATS).

Sunday’s Late Games

Oakland (+13) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: Clearly it did not take long for Vegas to forget San Diego’s 3-game losing streak or Oakland’s 3-game winning streak (or Oakland’s week 5 win over the Chargers for that matter). This line is probably similar to what it would have been before the start of the season. In a way this is strange, because the Raiders have won only 1 game less than the Chargers this season. But other than that it pretty much makes sense. The Raiders have been outscored by opponents this season (-1), while the Chargers have a +85 scoring differential. The Raiders are 1-4 on the road (3-2 ATS), while the Chargers are 4-1 at home (4-1 ATS). The Chargers have won 4 in a row (4-0 ATS). The Raiders have lost back to back games by a total of 48 points. Also, Oakland’s 35-27 win back in week 5 snapped a 13 game losing streak against the Chargers. The Chargers have beaten the Raiders 7 straight times in San Diego by an average score of 29-13.

The Chargers continue to be plagued by injury woes, but it hasn’t translated to problems on the field. As for the Raiders, they will have to go back to Jason Campbell this week, as Bruce Gradkowski will be out with an injury. Oakland’s playoff hopes appear to be in the last few swirls of a flush, while it now seems almost inevitable that the Chargers will continue their hot streak through the rest of the season and win the AFC West again. Still, a win in this game could revive Oakland’s spirits and save their season. A loss for the Chargers would certainly throw a bucket of water on their hot streak, and suddenly all of the injuries might seem like a much bigger deal than they have over the last few weeks.

Carolina (+6) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: I think I’ve figured out why the NFL insists on blacking out the other game locally during the time slot when that market’s team is playing at home. It’s for situations just like this. It’s not to make people think “huh, I guess I might as well just go to the game then.” It’s to make people think, “Fuck! That’s it. I’m just going to have to get NFL Direct Ticket.”

The Panthers came oh-so close to winning in Cleveland last week, but in the end they came up a missed field goal short. Of course, that was largely due to the fact that Jake Delhomme did more to help them win last week as a member of the Browns than he did in any single game during his final season as a Panther. They are 1-10 (3-8 ATS) and 0-5 on the road (2-3 ATS). They have lost 5 straight, though they did snap a 4-game skid ATS last week. Worst of all, unlike other struggling teams such as the Lions and Bills, the Panthers have rarely been competitive this season. They have been outscored by an average of 12.4 points a game this season (worst in the NFL).

Somehow, the Seahawks are 5-6, despite being outscored by an average of 6 points a game this season. They are 3-2 at home (3-2), but they have lost 4 of their last 5 games (1-4 ATS), including their last 2 at home. In their last 6 games, the Seahawks are 2-0 against the Cardinals, and 0-4 against everyone else, losing by scores of 33-3 (at Oakland), 41-7 (vs. the Giants), 34-19 (at New Orleans), and 42-24 (vs. the Chiefs).

Dallas (+5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys very nearly managed to win a 3rd straight game since the firing of Wade Phillips, but ended up blowing a late lead and losing 30-27 to the Saints. A win would have kept hope alive, but now that the number in the loss column is an 8, I wonder if the team won’t begin to play with the same lack of discipline and spirit that it did under Phillips. They have won 3 straight ATS and they are actually 2-3 on the road, but again, what will their effort be like this week?

Dallas will be playing on extra rest this week, but Indy is the team that could really use it. They are banged up on both sides of the ball and they looked a little drained on Sunday night. The Colts are now just 6-5 on the season (6-4-1 ATS), having lost 3 of their last 4. On the positive side, they are 4-1 at home this season. They really need to win this game in order to stem the tide. They have a short week and a Thursday night game at Tennessee coming up next.

St. Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Rams cover
Comment: In my opinion, the Rams are easily the closest thing to a legit playoff team in the NFC West. That might not be saying much, but you have to remember that they came into the season having lost 33 of their last 36 games, and so far this year they are 5-6 (8-3 ATS). The Rams are just 1-4 on the road, but they are 4-1 ATS on the road. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

The Cards defeated the Rams 17-13 in St. Louis back in week 1. Since then, the Rams are 5-5, while the Cards are 2-8. Arizona has lost 6 straight (1-5 ATS), and the Cards are now just 2-3 at home (1-4 ATS). Not only have the Cards been on a losing streak lately, they’ve been getting embarrassed. Despite 3 wins, they have been outscored by 11.4 points a game this season (2nd worst in the league).

It hardly seems to matter at this point, but the Cards have won 8 straight over the Rams, including 3 straight at home. It’s a short week for the Cards and much of it has already been spent dealing with Derek Anderson’s strange meltdown at the postgame press conference following MNF. The Rams won’t be traveling East for this game, and I don’t think they’ll have to worry about the Arizona crowd having any effect on them.

Atlanta (-2) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: This is the best matchup of the non-night games this week. The Falcons have the best record in the NFC at 9-2 (7-4 ATS) and they have won 5 in a row (4-1 ATS). The Falcons are just 3-2 on the road and this will be a test for them. These two squared off at the Georgia Dome in week 9. The Falcons won 27-21, but they needed a big stand at their own goal line in the closing minutes to hang on. Atlanta has won 4 in a row in this series, but the Bucs have played them tough, and it’s never been easy for the Falcons to win at Tampa.

The Bucs are 7-4 (8-3 ATS), despite being just 3-2 at home (2-3 ATS) and having a -4 scoring differential for the year. They probably aren’t as good as their record, but they’ve won 5 straight ATS, and there’s no doubt they believe they can win this game. And it’s definitely a huge game for them. If the Falcons win this one the Bucs would be virtually eliminated from the division title race, as they would have to go 5-0 the rest of the way and have the Falcons go 0-5 the rest of the way in order to win it.

Sunday Night’s Game

Pittsburgh (+3) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: A Sunday full of interdivision games ends with one of the best rivalries in the NFL today. This is a matchup of Super Bowl contenders. And of course, it will be physical. Both teams come into this one at 8-3, but this is a major swing game. If the Steelers win they will be a game up on the Ravens in the AFC North. If the Steelers lose this game they will essentially be 2 games back of the Ravens, as Baltimore won the first game between these two in week 4 (17-14 at Pittsburgh) and would hold the tie-breaker. This is one of the reasons why I think this is a bigger game for the Steelers.

The Steelers have gone 5-3 since their 3-0 start, and several of those wins have been shaky to say the least. They won by a point against the Dolphins, needed a defensive stand in the red zone to hang on and beat the Bengals by 6, and last week they needed a dropped touchdown pass in overtime to stay alive and then kicked a field goal to beat the Bills 19-16. The Ravens, on the other hand, have won 4 of 5, with the only loss coming at Atlanta by 5 points on a short week.

The Ravens have won 6 of their last 7 against the Steelers at home. Pittsburgh has been good on the road this season, going 5-1 away from home so far (3-3 ATS), but the Ravens are undefeated in 5 home games (2-3 ATS). The Steelers are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

Monday Night’s Game

New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: In recent years, ABC/ESPN has been obsessed with the idea of making Monday Night Football feel like it did in 1975. Special. Unique. An Event. The problem is that the task is simply impossible. It can’t be done. Anyone who understands the difference between television and sports coverage then and now will not need me to explain why this is so. A process of change has taken place, and this change cannot be reversed. But ABC/ESPN has gone on trying anyway, and trying harder than ever. At times, this has achieved exactly the opposite of what was intended.

There are still times when ESPN is clearly “trying too hard,” but this season I feel like they have finally gotten it just about right. The emphasis has turned away from “entertainment” and gone back to the game. Of course, the matchup and the game itself are the two things which have the biggest effect on the event. The truth is that there’s very little ESPN can do to change this fact.

What this means is that there are going to be times when Monday Night Football is not looked forward to with anticipation, will not draw gigantic audiences, and will not hold the attention of those viewers who do turn in. An extreme example of this occurred just last Monday when the Cardinals and 49ers played. I took it as a positive sign that ESPN decided to completely alter the usual postgame coverage following last Monday’s game. Instead of the entire hour (or more) following the game being made up of analysis of the contest, Sports Center opened with coverage and analysis of the Miami Heat game from that night. For once, I was actually not sick of hearing about that team.

On the bright side, there are times when the matchup and the game will indeed make Monday Night Football special again, at least for real football fans. Coincidentally, this coming Monday will be one such night. This Monday’s broadcast promises to be the polar opposite of last Monday’s game. We still don’t need “team updates” by the sideline reporters every hour throughout Monday leading up to the game, but at least this week we will most likely welcome an hour of straight analysis following the game.

Obviously this is a big game. Both teams come in at 9-2, tied atop the AFC East. When you talk about seeding and home field advantage in the playoffs, it’s always important, but it can be even more important when the top 2 teams in the conference are in the same division. Two teams can end up tied for the best record in the conference, but if they are from the same division, only one team is going to benefit from having that record. The team that holds the tie-breaker will have a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Not only will the other team have to play in the Wild Card round, they will have to do so on the road. They will be on the road throughout the playoffs unless they somehow end up playing the #6 seed in the conference championship. Those are two very different situations.

Both teams will come into this game on extra rest following games on Thanksgiving. The Jets are 7-4 ATS, while the Pats are 6-4-1 ATS. New York is 5-0 on the road (4-1 ATS), while the Pats are 5-0 at home (2-2-1 ATS). The Jets have won their last 4 games. The Patriots have won their last 3games. The Patriots have won 5 of 7 at home against the Jets. The Jets are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5.

Although the Jets are still trying to prove that they are worthy of the hype, I think this is a bigger game for New England. The Patriots lost to the Jets back in week 2 (28-14 in Jersey), so if they lose this one they will essentially be 2 games behind New York because of the tie-breaker.

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