The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-7); Straight Up: (11-5)

Season: Vs. Spread (89-98-5); Straight Up: (115-77)

Week 13 Review: Another solid week for me. Maybe it’s not too late to have a decent season. Then again, I’ve still got a long way to go and not many weeks left to work with.

Week 14 Preview: Three quarters of the way through the season and the teams are still bunched together. That means there will be quite a few elimination games over the next few weeks, beginning this weekend. Last week we had the 3 huge interdivision games. This week there aren’t as many huge matchups, but there are always a few surprises at the end of the season that wind up having a major impact. This is the point in the season when spoilers usually emerge.

Thursday Night’s Game

Indianapolis (-3) @ Tennessee

Pick: Colts cover

Comment: This isn’t the first time the Colts have gone through a midseason slump, but I think we can all agree that this is the most serious slump the Colts have experienced during the Peyton Manning era. Consider that no matter what happens the rest of the way, this will be the first time since 2002 that the Colts do not win at least 12 games in the regular season. They’ll have to go 4-0 the rest of the way to extend their streak of consecutive double digit win seasons to 9.

Obviously it’s been quite a run, and one that was going to end eventually, but it’s clear that the Colts have not been in this position this deep into the season in a long, long time. I have to be honest: it’s been a bit of a shock to me. It’s not hard to understand why it might be happening.

The Colts are aging and they are injured. Indy has never been a good defense against the run and without Bob Sanders they are even worse in that area. Other injuries in the secondary have made them easier to throw on. Offensively, the Colts just don’t run the ball well anymore. It’s basically all Peyton Manning. When star offensive weapons go down you can replace them with solid backups and get by if you have a great quarterback. But when the backups start going down, you’re going to have problems.

Furthermore, because Indy doesn’t have the threat of a running game, teams are teeing off on Manning, who has never been mobile and is getting on in years. There’s no question he’s been forcing it lately, and it has cost the Colts at least 2 of the last 3 games. You could even make an argument that Manning’s mistakes cost the Colts the game against San Diego, because the Chargers offense really didn’t do anything to put the Colts in a hole, it was all defense. During the 3-game slide, the Colts have allowed at least 31 points each game, but the defense has only been responsible for part of that.

Indy has lost 3 straight and 4 of 5. They are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The Colts are not out of it by any stretch. Jacksonville is only a game ahead of them, and the Colts will host the Jags next week. But at 6-6, Indy cannot afford to let this slide go any further. With all of the injuries the Colts have been dealing with, this is obviously a terrible time to be playing a Thursday night road game following an overtime loss on Sunday. Or is it? I think what the Colts need the most is not rest. They need a win, quickly. Fortunately, they are playing the Titans, who have been in a nose dive straight into the ground for over a month. The Titans are 5-7 and have lost 5 straight (0-5 ATS). Tennessee has scored a total of 6 points in their last 2 games, and they have been held to 17 points or less in 4 straight. They aren’t out of it either, but things look much worse for them. They need to go 3-1 the rest of the way to finish at least 8-8 for a 5th straight season.

These two teams will play each other again in the final week of the season at Indy. The Colts have won 3 straight against Tennessee, but they are just 5-3 against the Titans since 2006, and 2 of their wins have come by 2 points or less. They have won 5 of 7 in Nashville. The Colts are just 2-4 on the road, but the Titans are 2-4 at home. The Titans will have Kerry Collins at QB again this week (not great but better than Rusty Smith), and the return of Kenny Britt to the lineup should help their struggling offense. Before you dismiss the importance of Britt, consider that the Titans were 5-2 when he suffered the hamstring injury and they have gone 0-5 without him.

Earlier in the week it looked like the Colts might be getting healthy too. Then owner Jim Irsay got on his official Twitter account and poured a 20-gallon barrel of ice water on those hopes. Not only did Irsay say that the Colts would put Sanders on IR for the remainder of the season, he announced that Austin Collie, Joseph Addai, and Mike Hart—all of whom had at least participated in parts of practice this week—would not play on Thursday. I suppose it’s possible that Irsay could have been talking out of his ass (it runs in the family), but the Colts might also be thinking that they can beat the Titans without those guys playing at less than 100%, and it would be better to give them these 2 weeks off to get healthy for the game with the Jags. The Colts have won their last 5 games played on a Thursday.

Sunday’s Early Games

Atlanta (-7.5) @ Carolina

Pick: Falcons cover

Comment: I’m actually a little surprised that this spread isn’t bigger. It’s not that I’m over confident. I’m a Falcons fan, so I’m naturally living in fear of a disaster at all times. But the Panthers have only 1 win and have been routinely blown out this season, while the Falcons are 10-2. True, the Falcons have been winning close games and not putting teams away, but the Panthers are much worse than any team they have played since week 2 against Arizona (when they beat the Cards 41-7; the only win by more than 17 points this season.).

The Falcons are one of only two 10-2 teams in the NFL, and the only one in the NFC. They are 8-4 ATS. The Panthers are the only 1-11 team in the NFL, and they are 3-9 ATS. The Falcons are now 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS), while the Panthers are 1-5 at home (1-5 ATS). The Falcons have won 6 straight and 10 of their last 11. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. Carolina has lost 6 straight (1-5 ATS) and they have been outscored by an astonishing 12.8 points per game this season. In fact, through 12 games this season, the Panthers have been doubled up by opponents (average score 25.6-12.8). It would appear that the Panthers are going to need to beat Arizona at home next week in order to avoid going 1-15 twice in a 10-year span.

The visitor has lost the last 4 in this series, but before that the visitor won 5 in a row. These two teams have split the season series in each of the last 4 years. Tony Gonzalez went out late in the game last Sunday, but he’s probable to play this week. Jason Snelling will be a question mark again. The Panthers, meanwhile, will be without DeAngelo Williams for the rest of the season.

The Falcons may be experiencing what will eventually be seen as the Golden Age of the franchise. At this point, the closest thing we’ve had to a “Golden Age” came in the late 70’s/early 80’s when we made the playoffs a few times under Leeman Bennett. While Arthur Blank may have stumbled into the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, at least he did get it right. To be fair, Blank had already elevated the franchise before everything went down with Mike Vick and Bobby Petrino—things that were mostly not Blank’s fault—so having Coach Smith and Matty Ice fall in his lap was only evening the score. During the franchise’s first 38 years (1966-2003), the Falcons won 11 or more games in a season 3 times. With a win on Sunday they will have done it 3 times in the last 7 years (2004-2010).

Cincinnati (+9) @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers cover

Comment: It will be interesting to see how these two teams respond to the events of last week. The Bengals wet their pants and blew an upset bid at home against the Saints. The Steelers pulled out a come-from-behind win over the Ravens on the road on Sunday night. Will either team struggle to get up for this one?

The transformation from the Bengals back into the Bungles became complete last week. They are now 2-10 (4-8 ATS), having lost 9 in a row (2-7 ATS). They would have to go 3-1 the rest of the way to avoid finishing with their worst record since 2002. The Steelers are now 9-3 (7-5 ATS) and have won 3 in a row. They have finished with a losing record just once in the last 11 years, and this will be their 9th winning season during that stretch. A win on Sunday will give Pittsburgh 7 double digit win seasons over the last 11 years.

The Steelers are looking better than they did a few weeks ago, but they continue to suffer injury problems along the line. Tackles Willie Colon and Max Starks are out for the season, and now Flozell Adams is doubtful for this Sunday. Tight end Heath Miller will also likely miss this week’s game. And now the Steelers will have to replace their punter, who is done for the season. The injuries are a problem, but if one QB seems immune to protection issues it is Big Ben.

The Steelers are just 4-5 ATS in their last 9 games. They are 3-2 at home this season, while the Bengals are 1-5 on the road. In week 9 these two played in Cinci on Monday Night Football. The Steelers were in control all night until the Bengals made a late charge and threatened to steal the game. A fourth down stand in the red zone secured a 27-21 Pittsburgh victory. Still, the Steelers are just 2-3 in their last 5 games against the Bengals at home.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Minnesota

Pick: Vikings pull off the upset

Comment: Despite everything we’ve seen, people continue to say “Well, I think the Brett Favre story is now going to fade into the background.” By now most of us have learned to ignore these hopelessly optimistic claims. He’s never gone, and neither is the drama. At this point, I do not believe that an injured Brett Favre gives the Vikings a better chance to win than Tavaris Jackson does.

In 2 games this season, Jackson has completed 19 of 28 passes for 223 yards, throwing 3 TD’s and 3 picks, and rushing 3 times for 55 yards. Last week he helped lead the team to a blowout win over the Bills, but he did throw 3 INT’s, including one that was returned for a touchdown. It’s not that I think Jackson is good, I just think that right now Brett Favre hurts the Vikings more than he can help them. However, I don’t expect Leslie Frazier to keep Favre on the sidelines if Brett says he wants to play.

It’s a tough situation. The Vikings aren’t quite dead yet but they’re certainly attracting flies. If they win the rest of their games they’ll finish with a winning record, but it’s unlikely that they would make the playoffs at 9-7. If the Vikings have already decided that Tavaris Jackson will not be part of the team’s future, then maybe it would be best to just let Favre finish the season if he’s physically able to. On the other hand, if the Vikings think Jackson could very well be the guy next year, then they really ought to tell Brett that he’s going to earn his final 4 paychecks wearing a baseball cap on the sidelines. Either way, these last 4 games certainly matter to Frazier, as he could possibly earn the fulltime head coaching position or eliminate himself from consideration based on how the team finishes.

On the positive side, the Vikings have won 2 in a row for the first time this season. They are just 5-7 (4-8ATS) but they are 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). The Giants are now 8-4 (6-6 ATS) and 3-2 on the road, but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Minnesota has won the last 4 meetings between these two teams going back to 2005.

Along with the constant questions surrounding Brett Favre, Percy Harvin’s health seems to be a weekly issue. He missed last week’s game due to migraines, and while he should play this Sunday, it’s obviously not something we’ll know for sure until game time, as he could conceivably get another migraine at any moment. The Giants could end up getting a major offensive boost this week. Receiver Steve Smith expects to be able to go this Sunday for the first time since week 9. Smith’s presence in the lineup alone would be a significant boost. The G-Men may get even more help, as Hakeem Nicks’ recovery from a leg injury has gone better than expected. There is a very real possibility that the Giants will have both Smith and Nicks back for Sunday’s game.

This is the 6th straight year that the Giants have gone at least 8-8. The Vikings, on the other hand, will need to split their final 4 games in order to avoid just their 5th losing season in the last 25 years.

Green Bay (-6.5) @ Detroit

Pick: Packers cover

Comment: I think even the most ardent supporters of the NFL’s recent crack down on violence in the game would now admit that things have gotten out of hand. Not only did the league defend the unnecessary roughness penalty called against Ndamukong Suh last week (the second time this season that a highly questionable call helped the Bears get by the Lions), the poor kid was actually fined $15,000 for the hit.

This whole zero tolerance policy initiative may end up resulting in a very strange situation: the player’s union fighting to stop the NFL from trying to protect the players so much. It’s all very troubling for me. With a work stoppage looming next season, I know there are fans out there hoping more than ever that their team wins it all this season, fearing that they may not even have a chance next year. Honestly, I’ve been hoping more than ever that the Falcons win it all this season because I’m not sure how much longer pro football as we have known it is going to exist.

I feel bad for Suh, but I also feel bad for Lions fans, who have seen their team go 5-47 in their last 52 games. That’s a winning percentage of .096 over a 52 game stretch. As my baby brother used to say, “Owee, owee, owee!” The Lions have now lost 5 in a row. Detroit has been competitive in many games, going 8-4 ATS. Amazingly, they are 2-10 despite being outscored by an average of just 2.3 points a game. By comparison, the Jaguars have been outscored by an average of 3.6 points a game this season, yet they are 7-5. However, the Lions had been looking less competitive recently prior to last week’s game against the Bears. They are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4. The Lions are 2-4 at home this season (5-1 ATS).

While they trail Chicago in the standings, the Packers continue to look like the best team in the NFC North. They are 8-4 (7-5 ATS) on the year and have won 5 of their last 6 (5-1 ATS). They have outscored opponents by an NFL best 10.0 points a game this season. They are just 3-3 on the road. However, the Packers have won 4 in a row at Detroit. These two teams played at Lambeau in week 4. It was much closer than expected, with the Packers hanging on for a 28-26 win, their 10th straight over the Lions.

These are two of the older franchises in the NFL. Many of the teams that experienced periods of great success during the pre-merger days of pro football found themselves languishing at the bottom of the standings during the decades following the merger. The Packers would surely be included in this group, but they have certainly brought the tradition of winning back to Green Bay in the last two decades. This is the 17th time in the last 19 years that the Packers have gone at least 8-8. However, if the Packers win on Sunday they will clinch back to back winning seasons for the first time since they had five straight winning seasons from 2000-2004.

Even the youngest football fans are likely familiar with the great history of the Green Bay Packers. The Super Bowl trophy is named after the game’s most famous coach, who led the Packers to victories in the first two Super Bowls. The Ice Bowl (1967 NFL Championship Game) may be the most famous game in pro football history. And even if some fans don’t know what Curly Lambeau accomplished in the days before Vince Lombardi (6 NFL Championships and 209 wins in 29 years), they are no doubt familiar with the game’s most famous field named in his honor.

However, it’s a safe bet that many of the sport’s younger fans have no idea that the Lions were once a powerhouse in the NFL. It might even be hard for them to imagine such a thing, as the Lions have been absolutely dreadful for about a quarter century. This is the 10th consecutive losing season for the Lions, and the 9th time in the last 10 years that they have suffered double digit losses. They have lost at least 10 games in 17 of the last 27 years. The Lions have played in just 10 playoff games over the last 63 years and have gone 1-9 in those games.

Oakland (+4.5) @ Jacksonville

Pick: Jags win but Raiders beat the spread

Comment: I don’t know about you, but I was certainly surprised by Oakland’s performance in San Diego last week. I figured that the nice little story of the Raiders (that sounds weird, huh?) was over and they would be irrelevant for the remainder of the season. In my opinion, it was easily Oakland’s biggest win since they defeated the Titans in the 2002 AFC Championship Game. The Raiders still have a lot of work to do just to avoid another losing season, but that doesn’t change the fact that we are three fourths of the way through the season and the Raiders are still in the hunt for the playoffs.

The Jags are another of the surprise teams in the NFL this season. They are alone in 1st place in the AFC South with a record of 7-5, but I’ve only recently begun to consider the possibility that Jacksonville’s record might be due to something other than just a combination of luck and an easy schedule. The Jags have won 4 of their last 5 (5-0 ATS) and they are 8-4 ATS on the season. Still, Jacksonville’s -43 scoring differential on the season gives credence to the belief that they are probably not as good as their record suggests. This Sunday, the Jags will have to guard against looking ahead towards their game at Indy next week.

The Raiders are 6-6 (7-5 ATS) overall but just 2-4 on the road (4-2 ATS). Jacksonville is 4-2 at home (4-2 ATS). Mike Sims-Walker continues to be bothered by a high ankle sprain, and he could be unavailable again this week. Jacksonville will rely heavily on Mo Jones-Drew.

Even if the Raiders fail to win another game this season, they have already put an end to their embarrassing streak of 7 straight seasons with at least 11 losses. If they win any of their final 4 games they will snap the streak of 7 straight seasons of double digit losses.

Tampa Bay (-1) @ Washington

Pick: Bucs cover

Comment: When Raheem Morris came out and said that his team was the best in the NFC a few weeks back, he was probably just trying to inspire his players. However, it’s something that has made him look a bit foolish in the eyes of many, and it’s likely to stay with him for a while. Some people have labeled the Bucs total frauds, but I disagree. Surely they have benefited from an easier schedule, but they are a decent team. They could not finish the job against the Falcons last week, and as a result they are probably not going to get to the playoffs. Still, they are 7-5 (8-4 ATS) and that’s already more wins than I thought they’d have this season.

The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. They are a surprising 4-2 on the road and they are 6-0 ATS on the road. It will be interesting to see how Tampa responds to last week’s crushing loss. They need to go 2-2 over their final 4 games to secure their 3rd winning season in the last 4 years.

The Bucs may not be legit contenders but I think they’re a lot closer to contending than the Redskins are. The Skins are now 5-7, having lost 4 of their last 5 games (1-4 ATS), and they have been outscored by an average of 5.9 points a game this season. They are just 2-4 at home.

Part of Washington’s problem has been injuries. Clinton Portis played in only 5 games this season and is done for the year. His replacement, Ryan Torian, performed fairly well until injuring a hamstring that has kept him out of the last 4 games. He may be able to go this week but it’s far from a certainty. Even if Torian can play he won’t be anywhere near 100%. On the other side of the ball, the Skins are unlikely to have Carlos Rogers or Lavon Landry available this Sunday.

And then there’s Albert Haynesworth, who has been suspended by the team for the remainder of the season. During his brief period of dominance with the Titans, Haynesworth was called the most disruptive force in the league. An argument can be made that he still holds that title as a member of the Redskins, though it’s not the opposing offense but his own team that he has continuously plagued.

Warning: Superfluous tangent on the history of the Skins under Dan Snyder coming up. Those who are timid may feel free to skip ahead to the next matchup.

Washington’s disappointing record this season, the Haynesworth debacle, and the peculiar handling of Donovan McNabb (Mike Shanahan benches him and then gives various reasons for his decision and then days later the team extends his contract) are just the latest in what has been a never ending string of failures by Dan Snyder and the franchise since he took over ownership.

To be fair, things were going in the wrong direction before Snyder arrived. During a period of over two decades, the Skins were one of the elite teams in the NFL, playing in 5 Super Bowls and winning 3 championships from the early ‘70’s to the early ‘90’s. Along the way they became one of the most popular franchises in pro sports. From 1971-1992, the Redskins had just 2 losing seasons in 22 years. During that stretch they went to the playoffs 13 times. While the Skins have maintained their popularity and have avoided falling to the bottom of the league, they haven’t had anything close to the same amount of success since the early 1990’s. Unless the Redskins win at least 3 of their final 4 games this season, they will finish with a losing record for the 10th time in their last 18 seasons (1993-2010). They have made only 3 appearances in the playoffs over that time and have not come close to reaching the Super Bowl.

While the slide was underway prior to Snyder’s purchase of the Redskins, Snyder’s inept running of the team is evident in the dramatic increase in the number of different head coaches the Skins have employed during his ownership. During the Skins period of greatness from ’71-’92, the Redskins had only 3 head coaches in 22 years (George Allen ’71-’77, Jack Pardee ’78-’80, Joe Gibbs ’81-’92). In the 18 seasons since, the Skins have been led by 7 different head coaches (not including interim coaches). Since Snyder arrived in 1999, the Skins have had 6 different head coaches (not including interim coaches).

If you look at it, the Skins have basically tried everything to replace Joe Gibbs. They started by going with “The Successor”: Richie Petitbon (1 season, 4-12, no playoff appearances), the longtime Skins defensive coordinator under Gibbs. The drop off in the first season post-Gibbs was drastic. Petitbon may simply have been over his head. It quickly became clear that the Skins wouldn’t be able to keep the train rolling simply by elevating one of Gibbs’ long time assistants to take his place. He was relieved of his duties after just that one season.

The Skins then went out and got “The Hot Coordinator”: Norv Turner (7 years, 49-59, 1-1 record in 1 trip to the playoffs), the offensive coordinator and QB coach of the Cowboys when they won back to back championships in 1992 and 1993. Turner’s arrival did not bring an immediate return to success. The Skins slowly got better under Turner, but every time they appeared to be on the verge of getting over the hump they would regress. Turner led the Skins into the playoffs in 1999, Snyder’s first year as owner, but he was fired 13 games into the following season with the Skins at 7-6. The team finished up 8-8 with Terry Robiskie leading the team as interim head coach for the final 3 games.

With the Norv era over, Snyder then replaced Turner with “The Culture Changer”: Marty Schottenheimer (1 year, 8-8, no playoff appearances), the well respected coach with a reputation for turning teams into consistent contenders who disappoint in the playoffs. In an early sign of the chronic mismanagement that was to come, Snyder fired Schottenheimer after 1 mediocre season.

Snyder was clearly out of his league, and he followed his foolish axing of Marty by making another mistake often made by owners who think they know what they are doing but really do not. He went and got “The College Guy”: Steve Spurrier (2 years, 12-20, no playoff appearances), who had turned Florida into a college football powerhouse and changed the SEC forever, but had seemingly become bored with the college game and was looking for a new challenge. Spurrier turned out to be a total misfit as an NFL coach. The Ol’ Ball Coach had a not-too-subtle habit of bringing in ex-Gators who had been mediocre pro players and trying to recreate the Florida magic in Washington. It soon became clear that the “Fun n’ Gun” offense just didn’t work in the pros the way it did in college. The OBC was a total bust as a pro coach and he gave up after 2 losing seasons.

By this time, Snyder had become a bit of a clownish figure, always spending the most money on the free agent market but often overpaying to get the biggest names, and always spending a bunch of money to sign the biggest name coach and then firing coaches when they didn’t win. There were several other decisions and maneuvers made by Snyder regarding the business side of operations which turned much of the public against him. He had rapidly developed a reputation for being a conceded, meddling owner who had no credibility as a football guy.

As obvious and abject a failure as the Spurrier era was, Snyder’s next move appeared to be such a homerun that it basically wiped the slate clean with many Redskins fans. Snyder had done what basically everyone thought was impossible. He brought back “The Legend”: Joe Gibbs (2nd stint as head coach, 4 years, 30-34, 1-2 record in 2 playoff appearances), the most beloved man in franchise history, a guy universally considered to be a genius within the football community.

But there was a problem. Joe Gibbs had been gone for 11 years, and the game and the league had changed much over that time. To begin with, free agency and the salary cap had completely changed the way that teams were built and maintained. Snyder could outspend the rest of the league for free agents, but there was still a limit to the amount he could spend on the team.

Well, at least there was a limit to the amount of money Snyder could spend on players. There was nothing to keep Snyder from trying to gain an advantage by having the biggest and highest paid coaching staff (by a wide margin) in the NFL. But of course this was not a guaranteed springboard to success. As we know, too many cooks in the kitchen can be a problem. Also, Gibbs naturally surrounded himself with many of the guys who had been part of his staff during his original time as coach of the Skins. However, many of these guys had also been away from the game for years.

In the end, Gibbs’ second run as coach of the Skins was a mixed bag. On the one hand, the Skins did make the playoffs twice during the four years of his second tenure. On the other hand, it cannot be disputed that Gibbs’ second stint as coach of the Skins was a major disappointment. This was partly because the expectations were so high, but it was also because there were many times during the four years when Gibbs didn’t look like a genius at all.

When it was first announced that Gibbs was returning, some wondered whether or not the game had passed him by. When the four years were over, it was hard to argue that those critics had been incorrect. Perhaps more than anyone, Gibbs himself had realized as much by the end of his 2nd tenure.

At this point, when Gibbs decided to retire again, Snyder seems to have been out of ideas. The end result would be that the mismanagement of the Skins under Snyder would reach what to this point has been its peak. For a variety of different reasons, Snyder chose to retain the contracts of certain members of the Gibbs staff. The problem with doing this was that since most head coaches prefer to put together their own staff, the job became less appealing to a number of prospective candidates. But this was just the start.


There now appeared on the center of the stage, an unexpected and ludicrous figure. Snyder interviewed Jim Zorn, who he did not like for the head coaching position, but he was impressed enough to hire him as offensive coordinator. This only added to the trouble of attracting candidates. A lengthy search produced no one that Snyder and the Redskins brass seemed to be very excited about. This situation had dragged on and was getting embarrassing. Eventually, Snyder made his next clownish move. He settled on “I guess we’ll give it to this guy because no one seems to want the job and I don’t really know what else to do and I’ve tried everything else and maybe this will work out”: Jim Zorn (2 years, 12-20, no playoff appearances), the quirky left-handed QB of the expansion Seahawks, who had been the QB coach for Seattle for a few years, and had been hired by Snyder to be the offensive coordinator a month earlier.

For obvious reasons, many people wondered if Zorn was the man for the job, considering that he had limited experience and had initially been turned down for the head coaching position. As we know, coaching weaknesses can often be overcome or hidden for a time due to the skill of players, the role that luck plays in the game, and the schedule. This sort of thing would occur in the first half of the 2008 season, Zorn’s first as head coach.

The Zorn era began with the Skins getting off to a 6-2 start. Whatever questions people had about Zorn’s qualifications, the Skins were winning. But then the situation reversed itself, as Washington closed the season losing 6 of their final 8 games to finish up 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

This time Snyder decided not to can the coach after one year. However, the Skins started the next season 2-3 and Zorn’s name moved to the top of the list of coaches on the hot seat. At that point the Skins had lost 11 of their last 15 games since the 6-2 start the year before. More importantly, the main problem continued to be a struggling offense, which was supposed to be Zorn’s specialty. Zorn’s control over the team began to weaken at this point, as Snyder hired Sherman Lewis (a former offensive guru who had been out of the game for years) to be an “offensive consultant.” The Skins scored only 6 points in a loss to the Chiefs in their next game, and afterwards Zorn was stripped of play calling duties. Now Sherman would call the plays.

Washington continued to struggle over the course of the rest of the season, and Zorn was an obvious lame duck coach. Snyder did not want to fire him, but Zorn refused to resign. The Skins ended the year at 4-12 and Zorn was canned immediately after the final game. But while Zorn was exposed as a guy clearly in over his head and was often mocked nationally, Redskins fans tended to direct their anger at Daniel Snyder and his minions.

It was no doubt due in part to public pressure that Snyder’s next move was to hire Bruce Allen (son of former Skins coach George Allen) as general manager. This decision was seen as Snyder finally coming to terms with the fact that he needed to hire a football guy to run the team and then get out of the way. For his next coach, Snyder was able to bring in “The Offensive Genius”: Mike Shanahan, widely considered to be an offensive mastermind, he had won 2 Super Bowls with the Broncos, but since the retirement of John Elway his success had been marginal and he was finally fired after the 2008 season. As mentioned earlier, things have once again failed to go according to plan, at least to this point.

Cleveland (+1) @ Buffalo

Pick: Bills cover

Comment: The Browns have done well to be 5-7 after 12 games. I think the Bills could have a similar record at this point if they had made just a few more plays in a handful of games. Cleveland is just 2-4 on the road (2-4 ATS), and the Browns are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. They have won 3 in a row over the Bills since 2007. Colt McCoy may be healthy enough to play this week, but at this point it appears likely that Jake Delhomme will again be under center due to the fact that McCoy has yet to practice after missing the last 2 games. The Browns would need to go 4-0 the rest of the way to complete just their 3rd winning season in 12 years since being reborn in 1999.

The Bills have been extraordinarily resilient this season (the franchise has a history of resiliency), but following the heartbreaking loss in OT against the Steelers back in week 12, Buffalo was creamed by the Vikes last Sunday, 38-14. You wonder if perhaps they finally gave up to some extent. They are 2-10 on the season and 1-4 at home, but they are still 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7.

From 1988-2000, the Bills had only 2 losing seasons in 13 years. This is their 8th losing season in the last 10 years (2001-2010). They have had only 1 winning season over that period of time. The Bills had 9 seasons of double digit wins from 1988-1999, but they have not had a single double digit win season in the 11 years since.

Sunday’s Late Games

St. Louis (+9.5) @ New Orleans

Pick: Saints win but Rams beat the spread

Comment: Much has been made of the historically bad NFC West this season. While I agree that it has to be considered one of the worst divisions in recent memory, I do think the Rams are a decent team. They are now 6-6 on the season (9-3 ATS) and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. They are 2-4 on the road (5-1 ATS). The Rams come into this one having won their last 2 games. With 6 wins already, the Rams have equaled their total number of wins over the 3 previous seasons combined. They need to go 3-1 the rest of the way to complete their first winning season since 2003.

Recently, some have suggested that the Saints are starting to round into form and play like the team they were last season. I’m not on board with that sentiment. For sure they are on a roll, and they are somehow flying more under the radar than any defending Super Bowl champ I can remember. But they aren’t the offensive juggernaut they were last season. Last week they won more on guile and the stupidity of their opponent than anything else. The Saints are 9-3 (5-7 ATS) and 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). They have won 5 in a row, but they are 0-2 ATS over the last 2 weeks. A win this Sunday would give the Saints back to back double digit win seasons for the first time since 1991-1992.

Seattle (+4.5) @ San Francisco

Pick: Niners win but Seahawks beat the spread

Comment: Ahhhh….now here is that historically awful NFC West at its best. The Niners are one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. There was plenty of hope going into the year that the Niners were well on their way to contending (at least for the playoffs), but it has become blindingly obvious that they are still lost and wandering in a wilderness that they don’t seem likely to come out of any time soon. They have two quarterbacks named Smith, but neither one is good enough to be the starter on a decent team. They have a head coach with lots of passion, but little else to offer in the way of coaching or running a team.

We’ve now reached the point that the 49ers have a new identity. From 1981-2002, the Niners had just 3 losing seasons in 22 years. They had double digit wins in 19 of those 22 years. In the 8 years since that run ended, the Niners have not had a winning season. They will have to go 4-0 the rest of the way to finish at .500 and avoid a 7th losing season in 8 years.

As for Seattle, the Seahawks have to be one of the worst 6-6 teams in the history of professional football. They have been outscored by an average of 4.1 points a game this season. Last week they fell down 14-0 to the Panthers. I honestly think the Seahawks should be barred from the postseason even if they win the NFC West. They need to go 2-2 over their final 4 games to avoid a 3rd consecutive losing season for the first time since they had 4 straight losing campaigns from 1991-1994.

The Niners got the season off to an awful and telling start when they went to Seattle and got plastered, 31-6 in week 1. The Seahawks have won 5 of 7 in the series. This time the game will be in San Fran, but the Seahawks have won 5 of their last 7 on the road against the Niners. Seattle is 2-4 on the road this season (2-4 ATS). San Francisco is 4-8 overall (4-8 ATS) and 2-3 at home (1-4 ATS). They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. They will be without Frank Gore for the rest of the season. This week they have decided to bench Troy Smith and go back to Alex Smith. This seems a futile gesture, as neither QB has proven capable of consistently giving his team a chance to win.

Miami (+5.5) @ New York Jets

Pick: Jets win but Dolphins beat the spread

Comment: Uh, I hate the Dolphins! One week they are playing inspired football and knocking off a team that appears to be better than they are, and the next week they go back to looking like the 1-15 team from a few years ago. Fittingly, they are 6-6 on the season. A perfect example of the nonsensical nature of the Phins is the fact that they are 5-1 on the road (5-1 ATS).

It was nice to see the Jets get embarrassed on Monday Night Football. I still think they are a capable team. However, the loss of Jim Leonhard is a big one. This team needed to be elite defensively, because they don’t run the ball that well and they don’t have a great quarterback. So far they have not been elite defensively, and losing the heady Leonhard will make the defense even less scary. The Jets are now 9-3 (7-5 ATS) overall and 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). They are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

I believe the Dolphins will need a big game out of Brandon Marshall in order to win this game, but that doesn’t seem likely, as he is still dealing with a hamstring problem. We know from experience that he’s not that into playing through pain late in the year, even if his team’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. In week 3, the Jets got by the Phins in Miami, 31-23. That snapped a 3-game skid against the Dolphins. The Phins have won their last 2 against the Jets on the road.

Jets fans didn’t have much to feel good about this week, but in reality they should actually feel great. Even if this year’s team never lives up to the hype, at least the Jets are consistently good nowadays. From 1970-1996, the Jets had only 5 winning seasons in 27 years. They have now had a winning record in 10 of the 14 seasons since (1997-2010). The Dolphins look to be on the opposite course. From 1970-2003, the Dolphins had just 2 losing seasons in 34 years. They will need to go 2-2 over their final 4 games to avoid their 5th losing season in the last 7 years (2004-2010).

Denver (-3) @ Arizona

Pick: Broncos cover

Comment: This is a matchup of the worst team in the league and the 3rd worst team in the league (at least in my power rankings). This is one of the most gadawfle games of the season, as the worst team from the AFC West goes up against the worst team from the NFC West. Maybe Denver will play inspired ball now that Josh McDaniels has been deported and some guy named Studesville has been handed the reins. You might think the interim coach’s name doesn’t fit a team which has been so impotent all season. But I would argue that it is actually quite fitting, because Studesville really sounds like an all-nude, all-male, gay strip club. You know, exactly the sort of place that Tim Tebow should end up at after being cut in a year or two.

The Broncos were competitive against the Chiefs last week, but it wasn’t enough to save McDaniels. Denver is now 3-9 (4-8 ATS) on the year and they have lost 7 of their last 8 (2-6 ATS). They are 1-4 on the road and they have been outscored by 6.5 points a game this season.

The Cardinals are also 3-9 (3-9 ATS) but they are definitely worse than the Broncos. They have lost 7 straight (1-6 ATS) and have been outscored by an average of 11.5 points a game this season. They are just 2-4 in the desert (1-5 ATS). With Max Hall out for the year and Derek Anderson doubtful with a head injury, it looks like rookie John Skelton out of Fordham will be making his first NFL start. Awesome.

It’s been a tale of two fundamentalists for these teams this year. Tim Tebow joined the Broncos but has been unable to revive a slumping franchise. From 1973-2006, the Broncos had 24 winning seasons in 34 years, playing in 6 Super Bowls and winning 2. They have now put together 4 consecutive non-winning seasons since the end of that run, and they will need to go 4-0 the rest of the way to avoid their first 10-loss season since 1999 and just the 3rd since 1967. If the Broncos are unable to at least split their final 4 games they will suffer their first ever 12-loss season.

Our other fundamentalist, Kurt Warner, left the Cardinals this season and Arizona has fallen right back to the bottom of the league. The Cardinals came into the year having strung together 3 consecutive non-losing seasons, which was absolutely dynastic for this franchise. Obviously that streak has ended.

Kansas City (+6.5) @ San Diego

Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread

Comment: I certainly did not think this was going to be a big game when I looked at the schedules this summer. Nor did I foresee the Chiefs holding a 2-game lead in the division going into this contest. This is a must-win for the Chargers. They had little margin for error before last week’s loss at home to the Raiders. Now they have absolutely no margin for error. Despite having outscored opponents by an average of 5.8 points a game this season, the Chargers are just 6-6 (6-6 ATS). They had their 4-game win streak snapped last week when they lost by 15 points to Oakland at home. They are 4-2 at home.

Back in week 1, the Chiefs pulled off a stunner, upsetting the Chargers at home, 21-14, to end a 5-game losing streak against San Diego. That got the Chiefs off to a good start and they have continued to play well throughout the season. They are 8-4 overall but just 2-4 on the road (3-3 ATS). They have won their last 3 games (2-1 ATS).

This game has gotten a bit tougher to call as the week has gone on. KC QB Matt Cassell had to undergo an emergency appendectomy earlier this week, and obviously his status for Sunday’s game is questionable. If Cassell can’t go, the Chiefs will have to turn to Brodie Croyle. Croyle has some experience in the NFL, but he has yet to attempt a pass this season. The Chargers themselves are still quite banged up, although they should have Antonio Gates back this week.

The Chiefs need to go 2-2 over their final 4 games to get to 10 wins and match their total number of wins over the 3 previous seasons combined. The Chargers need to go 2-2 over their last 4 games in order to avoid their first losing season since 2003.

New England (-3) @ Chicago

Pick: Patriots cover

Comment: Yet another big game for the Pats. We should find out a lot about the Bears this week. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots play away from home on short rest following their total demolition of the Jets on Monday night. I’m pretty sure they’ll be fine. The Bears are the team that still has a lot to prove.

At 10-2 (7-4-1 ATS), the Patriots have emerged as the clear #1 team in the league. They have outscored opponents by 9.2 points a game this season. They have won 4 in a row and 9 of their last 10. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9. The Pats are 4-2 away from home (4-2 ATS). This is their 10th straight winning season and their 9th double digit win season in the last 10 years.

Chicago is 9-3 (6-5-1 ATS) and the Bears sit atop the NFC North. The Bears have won 5 straight (3-1-1 ATS) and they are 4-2 at home this season (3-3 ATS). The games remaining on Chicago’s schedule are not easy ones, as they will face the Pats at home this weekend, then play in the Metrodome next Monday, then they host the Jets, and they finish the season at Green Bay. That’s pretty tough. They need to be rooting hard for whoever the Packers are playing (yeah, I know they already do that, but I’m just saying).

Sunday Night’s Game

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas

Pick: Eagles cover

Comment: Has anyone noticed that the Eagles are suddenly the team that the networks are trying to showcase each week? They’re on TV yet again this week, playing the Cowboys, who are always a big draw regardless of their record. This time the Cowboys will be trying to play the role of spoiler.

The Boys are just 4-8 (5-7 ATS) overall and 1-5 at home (2-4), but they have won 3 of 4 since Wade Phillips was put out of his misery, and they are 4-0 ATS during that stretch. It’s not all good for Big-D, however, as Dez Bryant has now been lost for the season. The Boys will of course be without Tony Romo again on Sunday, and Marion Barber will also be unavailable.

The Eagles are 8-4 (6-6 ATS), having won 4 of their last 5 going into this weekend, but they are just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. They are 4-2 on the road (3-3 ATS). While Philly has gotten healthy on offense, they are quite banged up in the secondary.

The Cowboys have won the last 3 in this series, as well as their last 3 at home against the Eagles. The Boys need to go 4-0 the rest of the way to avoid their first losing season since 2004. The Eagles will clinch yet another winning record with a victory on Sunday. They have still never won the Super Bowl, but they have been the most consistently good team in the NFC during the Andy Reid era. For many years the Eagles were consistently one of the worst teams in the game. From 1955-1987, the Eagles had 24 losing seasons in 33 years. In the 23 years since (1988-2010), the Eagles have had just 5 losing seasons.

Monday Night’s Game

Baltimore (-3) @ Houston

Pick: Ravens cover

Comment: This has a chance to be a good game. The Ravens are coming off of that disheartening loss to the Steelers at home last Sunday night. The Texans are fighting to keep their fading playoff hopes alive. Baltimore is now 8-4 (5-6-1 ATS), while the Texans are 5-7. The Ravens are 3-3 on the road, while the Texans are a surprising 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS). Houston has lost 5 of their last 6, and they are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games. Similarly, the Ravens are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7.

The Ravens could be missing a pair of key offensive pieces this week, with LeRon McClain and Todd Heap unlikely to play. Baltimore can’t afford to lose this game, as the Steelers are playing at home and are likely to handle the Bengals. The Texans don’t have much of a chance at the playoffs as it is, but they are done for sure if they lose this one.

With a win on Monday night, the Ravens will clinch their 8th winning season in 11 years. The Texans will have to go at least 3-1 over the last 4 games to make it 4 consecutive non-losing seasons.