The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-9-1); Straight Up: (12-4)

Season: Vs. Spread (95-107-6); Straight Up: (127-81)

Week 14 Review: A disappointing and frustrating week for me. My chances of getting back to .500 ATS are more than likely over. I got a bit of a bad break with the Vikings game being moved to Detroit, although I’m not sure they would have beaten the Giants with Tavaris Jackson no matter where they played. The worst loss of the week was the first, as the Titans scored a meaningless touchdown with no time on the clock, instead of kicking a field goal 20 seconds earlier so that they could at least try for the onsides kick. Making matters worse, they then kicked the “mandatory” extra point, even though regardless of what happened on the try there was no possible way it could impact the outcome of the game. It did impact me, however, as I went from covering, to pushing, to losing over the course of zero seconds of game time.

The only thing I can say is that the week did end well for me. The Ravens blew a 21-point second half lead, and when the Texans scored with seconds to go it looked like another tough loss for me. But things turned around from there. First, the Texans got the 2-point conversion which kept things alive for me by sending the game to overtime. Then the Ravens scored a touchdown (defensively) to cover the spread. That almost made up for the Titans playing as if they were trying to beat the spread and not actually win the game.

Week 15 Preview: This is a highly unusual week. It’s not unusual for one game to be off the board until later in the week. However, this week there are 3 games that are still off the board as of early Thursday morning (KC @ STL, GB @ NE, CHI @ MIN). All 3 games share the same condition: an injured QB with a very unclear status. In each case, the quarterback may very well play, but there’s an equally good chance that he won’t.

Thankfully, the Las Vegas Hilton has come up huge again. The LVH can almost always be counted on to produce a line when nobody else will. It’s fairly obvious that the LVH is assuming that all 3 quarterbacks will play this weekend. So, because the week starts tomorrow and I want to get the picks out on time, I’m just going to go with the LVH lines for those 3 games. By the way, as my buddy Bucky knows, when in Las Vegas, the Oak Ridge Boys stay at the Las Vegas Hilton!

Thursday Night’s Game

San Francisco (+9.5) @ San Diego

Pick: Chargers cover

Comment: Boy. The Niners sure are on TV a lot. Amazingly, both of these teams are still alive to win their divisions. The Niners are a game behind the Rams and Seahawks, both of whom face tough tests this week. The Chargers shutout Kansas City 31-0 last week to move within a game of the Chiefs, who may be without their QB again this Sunday. Playing in the West divisions has obviously helped both teams, but clearly the Chargers are a much more worthy playoff contender than San Francisco. The Chargers have been helped recently by Matt Cassel’s sudden appendectomy, but they can’t afford another slip up. As for the Niners, despite the fact that a loss in this game would guarantee a losing record, they would still not be mathematically eliminated from contention in the NFC West.

San Fran is 5-8 and just 1-5 on the road (2-4 ATS on the road). San Diego is 7-6 (7-6 ATS) and 5-2 at home (5-2 ATS at home). While the Chargers are only a game over .500, they have outscored opponents by 7.7 points a game this season. They have won 5 of their last 6 (5-1 ATS over that time).

The Niners will be without Frank Gore for the rest of the year, but Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon have done a decent job picking up the slack in Gore’s absence. Alex Smith had a good game in his return to the starter’s role last week, but that was against Seattle.

San Diego has not had good luck with injuries this season. They are getting healthier overall, but they are still dealing with an injury to their most important player other than Phillip Rivers. Antonio Gates is having a very hard time dealing with a plantar fascia tear in his right foot, and he is doubtful for this Thursday’s game. There’s actually a chance that Gates won’t play again this season, even if San Diego makes the playoffs. They might be able to reach the playoffs without Gates, but if he can’t go in the playoffs they will be much less of a threat to do any damage.

Sunday’s Early Games

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Miami

Pick: Dolphins win but Bills beat the spread

Comment: The Dolphins’ exasperating back and forth season continued last week with a road win over the Jets. They have now alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games. They are 7-6 (8-5 ATS) despite having been outscored by an average of 1.5 points a game on the season. They have a winning record, despite being only 1-5 at home (2-4 ATS). The Bills got a win over the Browns last week to move to 3-10 on the year (7-5-1 ATS), with all 3 wins coming in their last 5 games. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8. The Bills are only 1-5 on the road, but they are 4-2 ATS on the road.

In week 1, the Dolphins won 15-10 at Buffalo for their 4th win in the last 5 games in this series. They have won their last 2 meetings at home against the Bills.

This was once a very good rivalry, or at least, there was animosity. During the period when this rivalry was relevant (late 80’s to middle 90’s), the Bills owned the poor Fins, who never could handle the cold weather in Buffalo.

The Fins still have a shot at the playoffs, but they have to stop this up and down business right now or they’ll be done. They will get a break this week, as Lee Evans was injured last week and is now out for the season. Evans hasn’t had a great season, but the Bills need all the help they can get, so the veteran receiver’s absence will hurt. On the other side, Brandon Marshall is not 100% but he should be able to go again this Sunday. The Bills will have Terrance McGee healthy to try and slow Marshall down.

Cleveland (+1) @ Cincinnati

Pick: Browns pull off the upset

Comment: Despite a 5-8 record (5-8 ATS), the Browns have been a much more competitive team than the Bengals this season. Cleveland has only been outscored by 1.3 points a game, while the Bengals have a -6.3 average scoring differential and are 2-11 (4-9 ATS). The Bungles are just 1-5 at home, while the Browns are 2-4 on the road.

Was anyone surprised that Terrell Owens used his reality TV show (along with Chad Johnson) to rip into his own team, blaming their poor play on ownership and coaching? Of course ownership and coaching is a big part of the problem, but why does he need to say anything about it? I guess that’s a stupid question. Oh, and don’t be fooled by his solid numbers this season. He’s also played a role in the team’s failures, as he leads the NFL in dropped passes.

This one became a rivalry at the moment of the Bengals’ birth, but in recent years it hasn’t been as strong due to the struggles of both teams. In week 4, the Browns got by the Bengals, 23-20, breaking a 3-game losing streak in the series. They have lost 5 of their last 6 trips to Cincinnati.
The Browns really need to get Colt McCoy back in the lineup and Jake Delhomme on the sidelines. They got good news this week, with McCoy taking first team snaps in practice.

Detroit (+5.5) @ Tampa

Pick: Bucs win but Lions beat the spread

Comment: The Lions knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the game last week and earned a hard fought 7-3 victory to snap a 5-game losing skid. They are 3-10 on the year, but 9-4 ATS, and they’ve only been outscored by an average of 1.9 points a game this season. The bad news for this week is that they are 0-6 on the road (3-3 ATS).

The Bucs sweated out a 17-16 win at Washington last week, benefiting from a pair of missed field goals and a botched snap on the would-be game tying extra point with just seconds remaining. They are a surprising 8-5 on the season (8-4-1 ATS) despite having been outscored by opponents on the year. Tampa is now 5-1-1 ATS over their last 7 games. They are just 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS).

The QB situation for Detroit is up in the air, with Drew Stanton not playing great but doing a decent enough job; Shaun Hill getting close to being healthy enough to return; and Matt Stafford still not ruled out for the season. As for Tampa Bay, injuries are starting to mount on the defensive side of the ball. Aqib Talib, Gerald McCoy, and Quincy Black are all out.

Say what you will about the Bucs being lucky and having played an easy schedule, but they are most certainly in the playoff hunt. With Green Bay suffering from massive injuries, if the Eagles or Giants go on a swoon to end the season the Bucs could join the Falcons and Saints in making the NFC South a 3-playoff team division.

Jacksonville (+4.5) @ Indianapolis

Pick: Colts win but Jags beat the spread

Comment: There are several big games this weekend, but this one is probably the biggest. At the very least it could be the most decisive. The history of the Colts and Peyton Manning also add to the importance of the game. The Jags are 8-5 (9-4 ATS) and a game ahead of the Colts who are now 7-6 (6-6-1 ATS). Jacksonville won at home against Indy in week 4, 31-28, snapping a 3-game skid in the series. The Colts are 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS), while the Jags are 3-3 on the road (4-2 ATS). If Jacksonville wins this Sunday they will sweep the season series and clinch their first division title since 1999. In doing so they would also put Indy’s playoff chances on life support. It would appear that the Jags are in the driver’s seat for now, but the Colts control their own destiny. If they win out, they win the division. It’s as simple as that.

The Jags are hot. They have won 5 of their last 6 games, and they are 6-0 ATS over that stretch. Still, despite being 3 games over .500, the Jags have a -2.8 average scoring differential. The Colts, meanwhile, have been stumbling lately. They are 2-4 in their last 6 (2-4 ATS), though they actually have a +2.2 average scoring differential.

The Colts have been hurt by injuries all season but they might be getting healthy at the right time. There’s a chance they could have Joseph Addai, Austin Collie, Kelvin Hayden, Clint Sessions, and Mike Hart back for this huge game. They have won 4 of 5 over the Jags at home, although each win has been by 7 points or less.

Arizona (+2.5) @ Carolina

Pick: Cards pull off the upset

Comment: This is not the biggest game of the week. The Cards beat Denver last week to snap a 7-game losing streak. Incredibly, despite being 4-9 (4-9 ATS) they are not mathematically out of the playoffs. They are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games, and they are 1-5 on the road (2-4 ATS). The Panthers seem to have their heart set on the #1 draft pick. They are now 1-12 (3-10 ATS) and have lost 7 in a row (1-6 ATS over that stretch). They are just 1-6 at home (1-6 ATS).

For the second week in a row two of the three worst teams in the league will play each other. The Cardinals defeated the Broncos last week, but this game will be on the road. These teams own the two worst scoring differentials in the league this season, with the Cards being outscored by 8.3 points per game, and the Panthers being outscored by an NFL worst 13.4 points per game.

The Cards will be going with John Skelton again at QB. The Panthers have no choice but to keep sending Jimmy Clausen out. In perhaps the first humble act of his life, Clausen apologized to his defense this week for his poor play last Sunday. Steve Smith, himself almost never humble, took the opportunity to rip and mock Clausen publicly. Neither guy is someone you’d want on your team if you can help it. The Panthers would like to have DeAngelo Williams, but he’s done for the year. Then again, maybe they wouldn’t want Williams back at this point, as they are just 3 more losses away from that top spot in the draft.

New Orleans (+1) @ Baltimore

Pick: Ravens cover

Comment: This is a very interesting matchup. It’s a big game for both teams as they try to keep pace with the teams ahead of them in the division standings. The Saints are rolling, while the Ravens are sputtering. New Orleans has won 6 straight (4-2 ATS over that stretch) and they may finally have everybody in the backfield healthy. The Ravens nearly blew another game on Monday night, and they really need Todd Heap to be able to play this week.

The Saints are 10-3 (6-7 ATS) and 5-1 on the road (2-4 ATS). They have a +6.9 average scoring differential. The Ravens are 9-4 (6-6-1 ATS) and 5-1 at home (2-4 ATS). They have a +5.0 average scoring differential.

Philadelphia (+2.5) @ New York Giants

Pick: Eagles pull off the upset

Comment: This is a big game between a couple of long time rivals. Both come in at 9-4 and playing well lately. The Eagles are 5-2 on the road, while the G-Men are 5-2 at home. Philly has won 5 of their last 6, while the Giants have won 3 in a row. Back in week 11, the Eagles beat New York at home, 27-17, for their 5th straight win in this series (including the playoffs). The Eagles have won 3 in a row over the G-Men on the road.

The Eagles should get several key players back this week, including Asante Samuel and Winston Justice, but they are still dealing with a number of injuries to the defense. The Giants have also dealt with health problems, primarily amongst the wide receiver corps. Steve Smith is now out for the season, and Mario Manningham could miss another game this week. On the positive side, the Giants might be getting healthy up front on the O-line just in time for the stretch run. This will end up being a short week for the Giants, as their game with the Vikes was postponed until Monday night, but I’m sure they didn’t mind trading that extra day of rest to be able to play Minnesota in Detroit instead of the Metrodome.

Kansas City (-1) @ St. Louis

Pick: Rams pull off the upset

Comment: Who saw this being a big game back in August? Not me. This game will of course be hugely affected by the status of Matt Cassel, who did not play last week after undergoing an emergency appendectomy. With Cassel unavailable, Brodie Croyle got the start against the Chargers and led the team to zero points. He also has zero wins in 10 games as an NFL starter.

The Chiefs are 8-5 (7-6 ATSA) but just 2-5 on the road. They are just 2-5 AST in their last 7 games. The Rams are 6-7 (9-4 ATS) and 4-2 at home (4-2 ATS). They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8. The Chiefs are a game ahead of the Chargers in their division, while the Rams are tied with Seattle in their division. KC has a +2.1 average scoring differential this season, while the Rams are at -1.8 a game.

Washington (+6) @ Dallas

Pick: Cowboys cover

Comment: Ordinarily this game would mean absolutely nothing, but it’s the Skins and the Boys, so it still means a lot. Things are falling apart for Washington, as their season has turned into a disaster yet again. They are 5-8, having lost 3 in a row and 5 of 6 (1-4-1 ATS over that stretch). After losing last week’s game on a failed PAT, the Skins cut their punter (who was the holder on the would-be game tying extra point). Their kicker—who missed a pair of short field goals in last week’s defeat—is trying to kick through injuries. Clinton Portis, Albert Haynesworth, and LaRon Landry are all done. Things haven’t gone as planned in Mike Shanahan’s first year in D.C.

The Cowboys are just 4-9 (6-7 ATS) and 1-6 at home (3-4 ATS), but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. They are playing hard under Jason Garrett. They have lost Dez Bryant, and Marion Barber could be out again this week, but they still have many more weapons than the Skins. Dallas’ nightmare season began in week 1 with a 13-7 loss on the road to the Skins. That snapped a 3-game win streak in the series for the Boys. They have still won 3 of the last 4 against Washington at home.

Houston (+1) @ Tennessee

Pick: Titans cover

Comment: There are some similarities between these two division rivals. They are both 5-8 (Texans 5-8 ATS, Titans 6-7 ATS) after looking like playoff contenders earlier in the season. The Texans are 2-4 on the road, the Titans are 2-5 at home. The Texans have lost 6 of 7 and are 2-7 ATS over their last 9. The Titans have lost 6 straight (1-5 ATS). They both fell behind by 21 points at home on national TV last week before making dramatic comebacks, only to lose in the end.

Back in week 12, the Texans dominated Houston 20-0 at home, but the Texans are 2-6 all-time at Tennessee and they haven’t swept the Titans since 2004. Unfortunately for Houston, Mario Williams will be unavailable for this one. Despite being 3 games under .500, the Titans still have a +2.0 average scoring differential.

Sunday’s Late Games

Atlanta (-6) @ Seattle

Pick: Falcons cover

Comment: This is a huge game for the Falcons. If they can avoid a slipup in Seattle, they will have gone 3-0 on their road swing and there’s a chance they could have the division title sewed up in advance of next week’s MNF clash with the Saints. It won’t be easy, as the Falcons have historically struggled in the Pacific Northwest. The Falcons are 11-2 and 5-2 on the road. The Seahawks are 6-7 and 4-2 at home, but we all know they are not as good as their record suggests. They’ve been outscored by an average of 5.2 points a game.

The Falcons have won 7 straight (6-1 ATS), while the Seahawks have lost 5 of 7 (2-5 ATS). Atlanta should have Jason Snelling for this game, while the Seahawks should have Mike Williams.

New York Jets (+6) @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers win but Jets beat the spread

Comment: A very big game, especially for the sinking Jets. They are now 9-4 (7-6 ATS), having lost their last 2 games while scoring a total of 9 points. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7. The Steelers are on a roll, having won 4 in a row (3-1 ATS). The Jets are 5-1 on the road, while the Steelers are just 4-2 at home. However, the Steelers have outscored opponents by an average of 7.1 points per game.

The Jets will again be without Jim Leonhard, as well as Damien Woody. The Steelers should have Flozel Adams and Heath Miller for this one. However, they could be missing a much more important piece, as Troy Polamalu is a question mark.

Denver (+6.5) @ Oakland

Pick: Raiders cover

Comment: If the Raiders are really ready to be taken seriously again they need to win this game. The Broncos are terrible. They are 3-10 (4-9 ATS) and 1-5 on the road. They have lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 (2-7 ATS). The Broncos have a -8.2 average scoring differential. The Raiders are 6-7 (7-6 ATS) and 4-2 at home. They have a positive scoring differential on the season, but they have lost 3 of 4 (1-3 ATS).

We saw the Raiders crush the Broncos in Denver, 59-14, back in week 7. Still, the Broncos have won their last 2 trips to Oakland. The Raiders have not swept the Broncos since 2002.

Sunday Night’s Game

Green Bay (+4.5) @ New England

Pick: Patriots cover

Comment: We don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will play in what is most certainly a huge game for the Packers. I’m pretty sure that Rodgers can play physically, I’m just not sure that he will have a choice. With the media in a frenzy over head injuries, I don’t know that the Packers can get away with playing him a week after he got knocked out of the game with his 2nd concussion of the year.

Green Bay’s injury list is absurd, but they are still a very tough team to beat with Rodgers. Without him they don’t have a chance against the Pats. The Packers are 8-5 (7-6 ATS) and 3-4 on the road. The Patriots are 11-2 and 6-0 at home. Both teams have super average scoring differentials, with the Pack outscoring opponents by an average of 9.0 points a game and the Patriots outscoring opponents by 10.7 points a game.

New England has been on a dominant roll. They have won 5 straight and 10 of 11. They have won 3 straight and 6 of 8 ATS. The Packers, meanwhile, have lost 2 of their last 3 (1-2 ATS).

Monday Night’s Game

Chicago (+1.5) @ Minnesota

Pick: Bears pull off the upset

Comment: There are still several unknowns concerning this game. First of all, we don’t know what kind of shape the field will be in. We also don’t know what the crowd will be like. And then there’s that situation that just won’t go away: Brett Favre. I was foolishly convinced that Favre was done when he ended his consecutive streak start last week against the Giants. It never crossed my mind that he might play again this season, certainly not the very next week. But Tavaris Jackson is out for the season, and Favre is giving hints that he might be ready to go. If Favre can’t go the Vikes are in trouble because the next QB in line sucks.

The Bears are 9-4 (6-6-1 ATS) and 4-1 on the road (3-2 ATS). The Vikes are 5-8 and 4-3 at home, although admittedly last week’s home loss should carry an asterisk. Minnesota has more injury concerns than the one at quarterback. Percy Harvin, Ray Edwards, and Steve Hutchinson are all question marks for Monday night’s game. The Bears rolled over the Vikes at home back in week 10, winning 27-13. Chicago has lost 3 straight at Minnesota, but all of those games were in the Metrodome.