The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 16 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (10-6); Straight Up: (10-6)

Season: Vs. Spread (105-113-6); Straight Up: (137-87)

Week 15 Review: A nice bounce back week for me, but probably too little too late.

Week 16 Preview: Saturday games are here. That means the playoffs will soon be here as well. There are NFL games on 4 different days in week 16. Unfortunately, the NFL missed on some of the featured games this week. Their luck didn’t change on Monday night, when Brett Favre got knocked out of the game against the Bears, meaning he’s unlikely to play in Sunday night’s game against Philly. A Favre-Vick matchup at this point in the season might have broken the rating machine (whatever that is). There are a few duds this week to be sure, but there are also several big matchups. I need at least another 10-win week in order to have a chance at getting back to .500 in the final week. This won’t be easy, as it’s always difficult to predict the sort of effort that eliminated teams will give.

Thursday Night’s Game

Carolina (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers cover

Comment: A curious choice for this week’s Thursday night game even if the decision was made 8 months ago. Carolina needs to go ahead and lose their final two games in order to secure the #1 pick. Of course John Fox isn’t thinking that way, and neither are the players, but ownership probably is, considering the lack of enthusiasm for pro football in the Carolinas. The Panthers literally can’t afford to win any more games. The Steelers really don’t have much room for error either.

Pittsburgh is now 10-4 and tied again atop the AFC North standings with Baltimore. The Steelers hold the tiebreaker but of course they have to stay tied for that to matter. Pittsburgh has a +6.2 average scoring differential, which is 3rd best in the AFC, but they are just not anywhere near as scary a team without Troy Polamalu. Strangely, they are just 4-3 at home. The Steelers clinched a playoff spot despite last week’s loss at home to the Jets, but the defeat certainly slowed Pittsburgh’s momentum, as they had won 4 straight. Also, while they are safely in the postseason, the difference between winning the division and getting in as a wild card team could be huge, as they would go from the #2 seed—with a first round bye and a home game in the divisional round—to playing on the road in the opening round.

The Steelers shouldn’t have to worry much about bouncing back this week, and they shouldn’t need Polamalu. Carolina snapped a 7-game losing skid last week, beating the Cardinals to get their 2nd win of the season, but they are a bad team. The Panthers have a -11.9 average scoring differential, which is easily the worst in the NFL. They are 2-12 (4-10 ATS) and 0-6 on the road.

The Steelers will likely be without their game changing safety again this week, and they have had massive injuries on the offensive line, but they should get some good injury news this week. Heath Miller--out with a head injury since that nasty hit in the Baltimore game—is probable for this Thursday’s game. DE Aaron Smith is also close to coming back.

From 1972-1979, Chuck Noll’s Steelers posted double digit wins in 7 of 8 seasons (the only exception was 1977 when they went 9-5 in the final 14-game season), but over his final 12 seasons (1980-1991) the Steelers had just one 10-win season. Since Bill Cowher took over in 1992, the Steelers have recorded a dozen double digit win seasons in 19 years (with three 9-7 seasons thrown in for good measure). They are on the verge of winning their 20th division title since 1972.

While the Panthers placed their #1 draft pick in jeopardy by winning last week, it did enable them to dodge a bullet historically. At least now they will not go 1-15 for the 2nd time in 10 seasons. Outside of this season and the 1-15 season of 2001, the Panthers have actually been able to avoid miserable seasons better than many post-merger expansion teams. This is just the 3rd double digit loss season in the franchise’s 16 year history.

Saturday Night’s Game

Dallas (-6.5) @ Arizona

Pick: Cowboys cover

Comment: While this week’s Thursday night matchup is certainly a bust, the league totally whiffed on the first Saturday night matchup of the year. Then again maybe not. Maybe the NFL created a built in defense system by putting the Steelers in the Thursday night game and the Cowboys in the Saturday night game, thus ensuring a relatively large audience no matter what.

This has definitely been a tough year for Jerrah and the Boys, but they’ve been playing quite well since the Wade Phillips firing. They are 4-2 under Jason Garrett, with their only losses coming by 3 points to the Saints and the Eagles. They are 5-9 and 3-3 on the road, with a -3.0 average scoring differential. While they beat the Skins last week, their 5-game winning streak ATS was snapped.

The Cowboys will head to the desert to play an Arizona team that was finally eliminated from the playoffs last week when they got beat by Carolina. The Cards are 4-10 (4-10 ATS) and just 3-4 at home (2-5 ATS). They have a dreadful -8.2 average scoring differential, 3rd worst in the NFL. They have lost 8 of their last 9 (2-7 ATS) and they will once again be going with John Skelton at QB this Saturday.

Marion Barber and Roy Williams are questionable for the Boys, who will of course be without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant again this weekend. This is the first losing season for Dallas since 2004. Arizona’s streak of 3 straight non-losing seasons has been snapped, and they are right back to the bottom of the league. This is their 10th double digit loss season in the last 16 years.

Sunday’s Early Games

Detroit (+3.5) @ Miami

Pick: Dolphins win but Lions beat the spread

Comment: Detroit’s 2010 season will end up looking like just another terrible year in the record books, their 10th straight losing season and their 17th double digit loss season in the last 27 years. But if they emerge from their long nightmare and become contenders over the next few years, those who really follow the game will point to this season as the start of their turnaround. The Lions are 4-10 but they are 10-4 ATS. They are coming off of wins over the Packers and the Bucs (the first time they’ve won back to back games since 2007) and they have won 3 straight against the spread.

Detroit is 1-6 on the road, but they are 4-3 ATS on the road, and last week the Lions snapped a 26-game road losing streak with an overtime victory in Tampa. While they are 6 games under .500, they have the same average scoring differential (-1.5) as the 7-7 Dolphins. The Dolphins choked again last week, losing at home to the Bills. It’s been a bizarre year for Miami (actually, it’s really been one bizarre year after another for the Dolphins since 2007), one in which they have gone 1-6 at home (2-5 ATS) and have now alternated wins and losses for the last 11 weeks.

Last week’s 17-14 home loss to the Bills officially nixed Miami’s playoff chances. The Dolphins will have to win at least one of their last two games to avoid a 5th losing season in the last 7 years. They had only 2 losing seasons over the previous 34 years. Bill Parcels bailed on the club earlier this year, and the Tony Sparano era may soon be over as well.

San Francisco (+1.5) @ St. Louis

Pick: Rams cover

Comment: Honestly, how is it possible that the Niners could still end up being division winners, despite the fact that they enter week 16 with a 5-9 record? I don’t think they’re going to get it done, but they definitely could have if they hadn’t blown a couple of games early on during their 0-5 start. They have gone 5-4 since.

I still think the Rams are the closest thing to a playoff worthy team in the NFC West, but I’m no longer sure they are going to end up being the division’s representative in the postseason. They have lost 2 straight (0-2 ATS) to fall to 6-8 (9-5 ATS) and they are now just 4-3 at home (4-3 ATS). It seems like they might be running out of gas. Even if St. Louis wins this weekend and the Seahawks lose, the Rams would still have to win at Seattle in week 17 in order to win the division. That has to give Seattle the advantage.

One thing the Rams can do this weekend is eliminate the Niners. The Niners defeated the Rams, 23-20, in overtime back in week 9, but that was in San Francisco. The Niners are 1-6 on the road (2-5 ATS). However, San Fran has won 5 straight and 9 of 11 against the Rams, including 4 of the last 5 in St. Louis.

Mike Singletary has yet to name his starting QB for this week’s game, leaving us all to wonder again whether Smith or Smith will start. Alex Smith began the year as the unquestioned starter, but after a 1-6 start, Troy Smith was handed the job. He did okay, going 3-2 as a starter over the next 5 weeks, but Singletary went back to Alex a couple of weeks ago. The Niners won the first game with Alex back at QB but then lost badly last week. It probably doesn’t matter all that much, but I would go with Troy against the Rams. He is 3-2 on the year, whereas Alex Smith is 2-7. In addition, Troy Smith threw for over 300 yards in the Niners’ week 9 win over the Rams.

Whatever happens on Sunday and over the rest of this season (unless San Fran makes the playoffs and pulls off a shocking upset) this will have been an encouraging season for the Rams and very discouraging season for the Niners. This is the 7th losing season in 8 years for the Niners, and their 8th straight non-winning season. Prior to starting that slide they had posted 19 winning seasons over the previous 22 years. Meanwhile, even if the Rams lose both of their final two games, they will still have won as many games this season (6) as they did in the previous 3 seasons combined.

Washington (+7) @ Jacksonville

Pick: Jags cover

Comment: So the Colts stepped up and slowed down the Jax---Wait a minute…Yes, I’m just getting this in my ear…We have major breaking news, folks! This just coming in over the wire right now. According to reports, Donovan McNabb felt disrespected by Mike Shanahan when he decided to bench him for the final two games!!! Again, McNabb felt disrespected. Amazing, truly important and meaningful stuff here, folks. So those are the details we have at this moment. McNabb apparently felt disrespected. We have now been able to confirm those earlier reports. Indeed, McNabb did feel disrespected. Wow. We will of course keep you abreast on the situation. If a professional athlete feels disrespected you’re going to hear about it here first!

Now back to this week’s matchups.

The Skins train wreck makes a stop in Jacksonville this week, as Rex Grossman returns to Florida. Hard to believe he was the Heisman Runner-up in Spurrier’s last season with the Gators 10 years ago. The drop-off he experienced the following season as a junior, with Ron Zook as head coach, was telling, as he went from 34 TD, 12 INT, and a 65.6% completion percentage to 22 TD, 17 INT, and a 57.1% completion percentage. His surprise start against the Cowboys last week was typical, as he threw for 322 yards and 4 TD, and also fired 2 picks, lost a fumble, and took 5 sacks. And his team lost. The Skins have now lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7. They are 5-9 overall and 3-4 on the road.

While the Skins give a backup QB another shot to start, and give a practice squad QB a chance to backup, the Jaguars will be trying to bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss to the Colts. Unfortunately for the Jags, no matter what they do over the last two weeks, the situation is now out of their hands. They will need to take care of their business on the field and hope the Colts slipup. The Jags are 8-6 (9-5 ATS) and 5-2 at home (5-2 ATS). They had been red hot, winning 6 straight ATS prior to last week’s 34-24 loss at Indy. They have still won 5 of their last 7 and they should bounce back against the Redskins. The Colts have a road game at Oakland this week that looked harmless in August but now appears to be a bit tricky. However, Jacksonville has a -3.3 average scoring differential for the season, and there have been some fluky things about their season (the Hail Mary against Houston for example). If they are really as good as they have looked over the last couple of months they will win their last two games against the Skins and Texans and at least put pressure on the Colts.

Baring a total collapse, the Jags should at least finish with a winning record this season. The Jags posted winning records in 4 of their first 5 years of existence, but if they finish over .500 this year it will be just their 4th winning season in the 11 years since that great early run ended.

The Skins recorded 18 winning seasons in 22 years from 1971-1992, but in the 18 years since they have had just 5 winning seasons. If they lose either of their final two games, it will be their 9th season of double digit losses in the last 18 years, after they had just 1 such season over the previous 22 years. By the way, do you think Dan Snyder wishes he had waited a season now that Cowher wants back in? It probably would have gone sour anyway. Snyder seems to be the anti-Midas.


Tennessee (+5) @ Kansas City

Pick: Chiefs cover

Comment: The Titans got off the schnide last week, beating the Texans to end a 6-game losing skid. They are 6-8 and 3-3 on the road. Despite being 2 games under .500, they have the same average scoring differential (+2.9) as the 9-5 Chiefs. KC got Matt Cassel back last week and regained life, beating the Rams on the road. They are 6-0 at home this season (4-2 ATS) and they have won 4 of their last 5.

It’s strange. I’ve just been assuming over the last month or so that the Chargers were going to make the playoffs, and I don’t think I’m alone in this. But here we are heading into week 16, and the Chiefs are still a game up on San Diego. They have a pair of home games against a couple of beatable teams (Titans and Raiders) and if they take care of business they’re going to win the AFC West. There’s nothing the Chargers can do about it.

I have to own up to the fact that I did not see the Chiefs taking this big of a leap forward this season. Some people did but I was not one of them. A win on Sunday for the Chiefs would be their 10th; equaling the total number of wins they recorded over the previous 3 seasons.

Jeff Fisher has been coaching his team for a while. He took over in the middle of the 1994 season. That was 3 years before the franchise left Houston. Think about that. In this day and age, that’s a long, long time to be the head coach of one team. Obviously Fisher has kept his job this long in large part due to the fact that he guided the Titans to a number of excellent seasons, including their run to the Super Bowl in 1999. But he’s also been a master at avoiding the awful season. If the Titans are unable to win one of their final two games, it will be just the 3rd double digit loss season for the franchise in Fisher’s 16 full seasons as head coach.


Baltimore (-3.5) @ Cleveland

Pick: Ravens cover

Comment: I don’t know for sure, but I have to think that this is still a big game for a lot of Browns fans, no matter what the stakes are. There has been so much talk recently about the poor Cleveland sports fans, but I don’t think the name Art Modell has been brought up nearly enough. The way LeBron acted in leaving Cleveland was despicable, but Model is pure evil. He no longer owns the Ravens, so obviously that has taken something out of this rivalry. But it still has to heat the blood of Browns fans to some extent whenever their team plays their old team. That’s the sort of unnatural, ugly thing that guys like Modell create in their attempt to make as much money and crush as many less fortunate people as possible before they rot and lie stinking in the earth.

Eric Mangini’s job looked safe a few weeks ago, but after back to back losses to the Bills and Bengals, he may end up getting axed after all. The Browns are 5-9 (5-9 ATS) and 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS). They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Colt McCoy’s return last week was not enough, as Peyton Hillis was shut down by the Cincinnati defense, and Cleveland allowed Cedric Benson to run all day long. They appeared to be on the right path earlier this season when they beat the Saints and Patriots and took the Jets to the wire. But they’ve since regressed and I’d be surprised if the Mangenius avoids the pink slip for a second straight year. This is Cleveland’s 10th losing season in the 12 years since their rebirth in 1999.

The Ravens came up with a huge win over the Saints last week, with the defense stepping up to seal the win for the second week in a row. With Pittsburgh losing, the Ravens tied the Steelers again for 1st in the NFC North with a record of 10-4. With a win this weekend they will clinch a playoff spot. In week 3, the Ravens defeated the Browns at home, 24-17, for their 5th straight win in the series. However, they are just 4-3 on the road this season, and they were taken into overtime by the Texans in their last road game.

While no one could be criticized for calling Brian Billick a bit of prick, there’s no denying that he did a solid job as Ravens head coach. After the Ravens finished with a losing record in each of their first 3 years in Baltimore, Billick took over an guided the team to 5 winning seasons, 4 playoff appearances, and a Super Bowl win in 9 years on the job. However, John Harbaugh is gaining on him for the title of greatest coach in franchise history. Harbaugh has now coached the team to winning seasons in all 3 of his years as head coach and he will almost certainly take the Ravens to the playoffs for a 3rd straight season. There’s no doubt that it was time for a change in Baltimore and they certainly made the right hire.

New York Jets (+1) @ Chicago

Pick: Bears cover

Comment: I hate both of these teams, but they’re both going to be in the postseason this year, and they are both dangerous. I was caught off guard by New York’s win at Pittsburgh last week. You have to give them credit for stepping up on the road against one of the best teams in the league when they really needed a win. They are now 10-4 and an impressive 6-1 on the road (5-2 ATS on the road). If they win this weekend they will clinch a playoff spot. If the Jets win out they will finish the season with more than 11 wins for just the 2nd time in franchise history.

The Bears have already clinched a playoff birth. In fact, they’ve already clinched the NFC North division title. Chicago will be back in the playoffs for the first time since they reached the Super Bowl in 2006. They are now 10-4 on the year, having won 6 of their last 7. Strangely, they are just 4-3 at home (3-4 ATS). It will be interesting to see how they respond this week, having already clinched the division, and coming off of Monday night’s game in the cold rain and snow in Minnesota.

New England (-9) @ Buffalo

Pick: Patriots cover

Comment: It was harder than expected, but the Patriots were able to beat the Rodgers-less Packers on Sunday night for their 6th straight victory. They are 10-1 over their last 11 games (7-3-1 ATS). At 12-2 and with a +10.3 average scoring differential, the Pats are the best team in the league right now, but they are clearly not invincible. A team with a balanced offense that takes care of the ball is going to have a chance against them. But again, they have to be the favorites to win the Super Bowl at this point.

Needing only one more win to wrap up the division title, the Pats will go up against a team they have beaten 14 consecutive times this week. They have also won 6 straight in Buffalo, and they are 5-2 on the road (5-2 ATS) this season. It was a close game in Foxboro back in week 3, with the Pats winning 38-30. The Bills have certainly come close to upsetting the Pats in recent years, but in the end New England has found a way to get it done. You know what the last Bills victory over the Patriots was? It was that opening game of the season in 2003, when Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy got revenge on their former team in a 31-0 whitewashing. Yeah, it does seem like a long time ago.

Needless to say, the Milloy-Bledsoe revenge was short-lived. The Patriots have now posted 10 consecutive winning seasons, winning double digit games in 9 of the last 10 years, and making 8 playoff appearances over that time. The Bills, on the other hand, will finish with a losing record for the 6th year in a row this season and they have now made the playoffs since 1999. However, you have to like this year’s Bills team. They have dealt with crushing losses, injuries, and having to play a home game in Toronto, but they still compete each week. They are just 4-10 (8-5-1 ATS) and 2-4 at home, but they are 4-2 over their last 6 games, and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9.

Sunday’s Late Games

San Diego (-7.5) @ Cincinnati

Pick: Chargers cover

Comment: What if the weather in Cincinnati had been unseasonably warm during the weekend of the 1981 AFC Championship Game? Would Dan Fouts have been able to function? Would the Chargers have made the Super Bowl instead of Forest Gregg’s Bengals? Would they have beaten Bill Walsh’s Niners? A lot of people would probably say yes to at least a couple of these things. I wouldn’t. The Chargers had played one of the most physically exhausting games in NFL history the week before. I think the Bengals would have won anyway. Plus, it’s not like Chargers didn’t choke in beautiful weather in the playoffs in the surrounding years.

Be that as it may, they better not choke this weekend because they’re on thin ice as it is, and they’re playing the Bungles. The Chargers waltzed through last Thursday night’s game against the Niners for their 6th win in 7 games (6-1 ATS). They are 8-6 but just 2-4 on the road (2-4 ATS). Despite a +9.1 average scoring differential (2nd best in the NFL), the Chargers are on the outside of the playoffs right now. Their only realistic chance to get into the postseason is by winning the AFC West, and the Chiefs are a game ahead of them with two relatively easy home games remaining. San Diego had several regrettable losses this year, but if they go 10-6 and don’t make the playoffs, it will be the home loss to Oakland a few weeks ago that did them in. They just didn’t show up and they got rocked, right in the middle of their annual hot streak into the playoffs.

The Bengals won last week, ending their 10 game losing streak, but also hurting their chances of getting the top pick in the draft. They are 3-11 and just 2-5 at home. T.O. is done for the year, and hopefully forever, although it seems highly unlikely that we’ve seen or heard the last of him. By the way, following their loss in Super Bowl XVI, the Bengals went 7-2 and made the playoffs in the strike shortened year of 1982. They have reached the playoffs just 4 times since then and that remains the only time in franchise history that they reached the postseason in back to back years.

The Chargers will more than likely be without the services of Antonio Gates this weekend. The prospects of having Patrick Crayton and Malcolm Floyd back are more encouraging. San Diego has to keep winning but it’s not totally in their hands. They need the Chiefs to slipup in order to get into the playoffs. If San Diego fails to reach the playoffs, it will be interesting to see what happens with Norv Turner. They’ve got to figure out some way to avoid the slow starts that they seem to have every season. This is their 7th straight non-losing season and they’ve been one of the consistently good teams of this era, but it hasn’t yet been “their turn” to get to the Super Bowl. You wonder how many more chances they’ll get with LT in New York, Gates unable to stay healthy, and many of the defensive play makers gone or aging.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Oakland

Pick: Colts cover

Comment: Just when it looked like Indy’s run of playoff appearances might come to an unexpected ending, the Colts come up big in a huge game against the Jags to take control of their own destiny. If they win at Oakland this week and at home against the Titans in week 17 they will once again be champs of the AFC South and will be in the playoffs for the 9th straight season and the 11th time in 12 years. This week’s game isn’t a cakewalk. The Raiders need a win to avoid being eliminated from playoff contention and they are 7-7 on the year (8-6 ATS). The Colts are 8-6 but just 3-4 on the road. The Raiders are 5-2 at home.

The Colts appear to have righted the ship, but they continue to be plagued by injuries. Austin Collie returned to action last week and had an immediate impact, catching a pair of touchdowns. Then he got knocked out again and he’s done for the year. Collie is just one of a dozen impact players who have been on the shelf for the Colts at some point this season. It would be hard to imagine the Colts winning the Super Bowl with Dallas Clark, Bob Sanders, and Austin Collie on IR.

The Raiders are also dealing with some injuries. Johnny Lee Higgins missed last week’s game and he is questionable for this Sunday. Also, if there’s one team that losses a major weapon if their punter is hurt it’s Oakland, and Shane Lechler’s status is very much up in the air at this point. The Raiders have finally climbed out of the cellar this season. They have broken the streak of 7 consecutive seasons with at least 11 losses; they have broken the streak of 7 consecutive seasons with double digit losses; and if they win one of their two remaining games they will end the streak of 7 consecutive losing seasons. It’s week 16 and the Raiders still have a shot at a winning record and the playoffs. And they’ve done it without Al Davis having to croak (as far as we know). That’s pretty significant.

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver

Pick: Texans cover

Comment: I am seriously pissed off at the Raiders for allowing those two ridiculous plays to Tim Tebow last week. All that did was encourage the Fundamentalists and other Tebow fanatics and give them a leg to stand on for another week. It’s most annoying. The guy completes 8 of 16 passes for 138 yards in leading his team to a 16-point loss and these people want an apology from anyone who has ever doubted him. It’s absurd.

Anyway, Denver sucks. They are 3-11 (4-10 ATS) and just 2-4 at home (2-4 ATS). Unless they win both of their remaining games they will have lost more than 11 games in a season for the first time in franchise history. They have a -8.7 average scoring differential which is 2nd worst in the league. They have lost 5 in a row and 9 of their last 10. They have lost 8 of 10 ATS. And they have a quarterback who is a virgin and likes to go to third world countries and take part in ritualistic mutilations of the genitalia of young boys. Neat. He’s such a hero.

What a disappointing season this has turned out to be for the Houston Texans. They are now 5-9 (5-9 ATS) and 2-5 on the road. They had been on the cusp of contending for the last few years, putting together 3 consecutive non-losing seasons, and recording their first ever winning season last year. They started off this season with a beat down of the Colts followed by a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Redskins. They were 4-2 going into their bye in week 7. Since then they have lost 7 of 8, losing several games in heart breaking fashion. They have lost their last 3, including last week’s game against the Titans when they fell down 21-0 and never got closer than within 14 points. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of 10 ATS. Gary Kubiak seems to be a dead coach walking.

New York Giants (Pick) @ Green Bay

Pick: Packers cover

Comment: Did you ever notice how sometimes there are things in sports that just shouldn’t have happened, and even years later you feel like somehow things didn’t happen the way they were supposed to? I think the biggest one of all-time for me is the 2007 New York Giants run to the championship. That was not the way it was supposed to happen. That wasn’t the way it should have happened. That didn’t make any sense and it makes even less sense today. For one month, that team, that coach, that defense, and that quarterback behaved in a manner completely contradictory to how they have acted before that time and ever since. How did that happen? How?

Speaking of how did that happen, how the hell did the Giants lose that game? I mean, Eli is running for his life and throws the ball into the middle of the field at no one in particular, and some guy who has never been heard from before or since just happens to be there so that the ball can get stuck on his head for a completion. That happens, and they can’t figure out how to punt a ball with 10 seconds left without allowing the guy to return it for a game winning touchdown. That doesn’t make any sense. Stephen Hawking needs to add a new chapter to his book on black holes because there’s no more mindboggling mystery in the universe than this. How did Eli, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Football Giants beat the 18-0 Patriots? This is the question. This is the single poser of all-time.

We need to move on now before the walls between reality and consciousness melt away. So, this is obviously the biggest game of week 16. The Giants are 9-5 and currently in the #6 spot in the NFC playoffs. The Packers are 8-6 and currently the first team out of the playoffs. If the G-Men win, the Packers are done. If the Packers win and then beat the Bears in week 17, they are in. This is a biggy.

The Giants had their 3-game win streak snapped when they choked while crapping themselves last Sunday. They are 4-2 on the road. Green Bay is 5-1 at home (4-2 ATS) but the Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 games. However, Aaron Rodgers will be back for this one. The Packers have a +8.1 average scoring differential this season, 3rd best in the NFL.

It’s strange. Following a 6-10 season in his first year as head coach of the team, Coughlin has led the Giants to 6 straight non-losing seasons and an improbable Super Bowl win, but if the Giants fail to make the playoffs this season he has to be fired. He might be done even if they do make the playoffs. As for the Packers, nobody likes to hear excuses, but their season has been derailed by injuries. Still, with two tough games remaining on the schedule, they may not even finish with a winning record. They have not had back to back winning seasons since they had 5 straight winning seasons from 2000-2004.

Seattle (+6) @ Tampa Bay

Pick: Bucs win but Seahawks beat the spread

Comment: I definitely did not expect both of these teams to be alive for the playoffs at this point in the season. Seattle is 6-8, they have a -6.0 average scoring differential, and they are 2-6 in their last 8 games (2-6 ATS), yet they are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC West. The Bucs queefed last week at home against Detroit and their playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. They are 8-6 but they’ve lost 3 of 4 and they have been outscored by opponents on the year.

Seattle is just 2-5 on the road (2-5 ATS), but the Bucs are only 3-4 at home (2-5 ATS). The Bucs will be eliminated with a loss. The Seahawks, on the other hand, could lose this game and still win the NFC West if they beat the Rams in week 17.
After putting together 5 consecutive winning campaigns from 2003-2007, the Seahawks are now one loss away from a 3rd consecutive losing season. If the Bucs win this one and lose to the Saints in week 17 they will finish with a 9-7 record for the 3rd time in the last 4 years. That’s not all that interesting but I couldn’t think of anything else.

Sunday Night’s Game

Minnesota (+14) @ Philadelphia

Pick: Eagles cover

Comment: What sort of ratings do you think this one will score if it’s announced on Saturday or early Sunday that Favre will play? Honestly, if he doesn’t play, this becomes another shitty matchup for me. We’ve seen the Vikings without Favre over the last few weeks and it’s not pretty. He at least gives them a chance. But even if he does start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to finish.

The Vikes brought Favre back to make one more go at a Super Bowl. Instead, Favre’s been either bad or hurt most of the time, they wasted draft picks on Randy Moss and then cut him, the coach got fired, there were stories about Favre sending pictures of his unit to some broad, Percy Harvin can’t stay on the field, Favre’s backup suffered a season ending injury, the Metrodome imploded, and the team is now 5-9. Amazingly, if they lose their final 2 games, it will be just the 2nd 11-loss season in their last 26 years. They are 4-10 ATS. Right now they are not capable of beating a good team. Favre can’t make it through a quarter and Adrian Peterson did not play last week. Without those two they are the Bengals.

The Eagles need to score only 18 points over their final 2 games to set the all-time franchise record for points scored in a season. However, they’ve already allowed more points this season than they have in any year since the turn of the millennium, with the exception of 2005 (when they went 6-10). I know everyone else has a hard-on about Michael Vick and the Eagles but not me. I’ve seen enough. Now I want them to suffer some injuries and then lose before my team has to play them in the playoffs. They are banged up but all of their most key pieces are healthy for the moment. They have won 3 straight and 6 of 7 and are now 10-4 and in 1st place in the NFC East. They are just 4-4 ATS over their last 8. They are only 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS), but the Vikes are 1-5 on the road (1-5 ATS).

Monday Night’s Game

New Orleans (+2) @ Atlanta

Pick: Falcons cover

Comment: This is a great matchup for the final Monday night game and it is important, but I’m actually glad it’s not quite as important as it might have been. When the Saints lost to the Ravens last week while the Falcons beat the Seahawks, it meant that Atlanta could lose to New Orleans and still win the division as long as they beat the Panthers at home in week 17. That’s key. I mean, yes, it’s possible that the Falcons could lose to the Panthers, but there’s maybe only a 1% chance. That takes the pressure off of the Falcons going into this one and it takes away from the magnitude of the game. In other words, if the Falcons lose it won’t be some kind of momentum crusher. Most importantly, it means the Falcons will almost certainly win the division and get a bye and at least 1 home game no matter what happens against the Saints.

And then there’s that whole thing about having to beat a team 3 times in one year. It’s tough to do. Right now there’s a good chance that the Falcons and Saints will meet again in the playoffs. I mean, maybe it’s stupid to think, “well, if we lose now then we won’t be due to lose to them when we play them in the playoffs,” but those are the things that you think about when you’re a fan.

The Falcons are 12-2 (10-4 ATS) and 6-0 at home (4-2 ATS). They have won 8 straight (7-1 ATS). The Saints are 10-4 (6-8 ATS) and 5-2 on the road (2-5 ATS). They had a 6-game win streak snapped in Baltimore last week. The Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, while the Falcons have won 6 straight ATS.

Chris Ivory is questionable for the Saints with a hamstring injury, but they have Pierre Thomas, Julius Jones, and Reggie Bush all available to carry the ball. Back in week 3, the Falcons won at New Orleans, 27-24 in overtime, after the Saints missed a short field goal that would have won it earlier in the OT session. This has been a rivalry since the two teams came into the league in the middle 60’s. Lately the Saints have had the upper hand, winning 7 of the last 9, including 3 of the last 4 in Atlanta.

Before Mike Smith and Matt Ryan got to Atlanta, the Falcons had never posted back to back winning seasons. They have now put together 3 consecutive winning seasons in the first 3 years of the Smith-Ryan era. The Saints have now put together back to back double digit win seasons for the first time since 1991-1992.