The College Basketball Blog: 2012 Conference Tournament Predictions (Part II)

Seven more tournaments get underway on Wednesday and Thursday. Here are my predictions.

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont over #8 Jacksonville

#2 Mercer over #7 Lipscomb

#3 South Carolina Upstate over #6 Florida Gulf Coast

#4 East Tennessee State over #5 North Florida

Semifinals

#1 Belmont over #4 East Tennessee State

#2 Mercer over #3 South Carolina Upstate

Championship

#1 Belmont over #2 Mercer

Ohio Valley Conference

First Round

#8 Eastern Kentucky over #5 Southeast Missouri State

#6 Austin Peay over #7 Jacksonville State

Second Round

#3 Morehead State over #6 Austin Peay

#4 Tennessee Tech over #8 Eastern Kentucky

Semifinals

#1 Murray State over #4 Tennessee Tech

#2 Tennessee State over #3 Morehead State

Championship

#1 Murray State over #2 Tennessee State

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell over #8 Navy

#2 Lehigh over #7 Colgate

#3 American over #6 Army

#4 Holy Cross over #5 Lafayette

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell over #4 Holy Cross

#2 Lehigh over #3 American

Championship

#1 Bucknell over #2 Lehigh

West Coast Conference

First Round

#8 Portland over #9 Santa Clara

Second Round

#5 San Francisco over #8 Portland

#6 San Diego over #7 Pepperdine

Third Round

#3 BYU over #6 San Diego

#5 San Francisco over #4 Loyola Marymount

Semifinals

#1 St. Mary’s over #5 San Francisco

#2 Gonzaga over #3 BYU

Championship

#2 Gonzaga over #1 St. Mary’s

America East Conference

First Round

#8 UMBC over #9 Binghamton

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook over #8 UMBC

#2 Vermont over #7 Maine

#3 Boston over #6 Hartford

#5 New Hampshire over #4 Albany

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook over #5 New Hampshire

#2 Vermont over #3 Boston

Championship

#1 Stony Brook over #2 Vermont

Missouri Valley Conference

First Round

#7 Drake over #10 Bradley

#8 Indiana State over #9 Southern Illinois

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita State over #8 Indiana State

#2 Creighton over #7 Drake

#3 Evansville over #6 Missouri State

#5 Northern Iowa over #4 Illinois State

Semifinals

#1 Wichita State over #5 Northern Iowa

#2 Creighton over #3 Evansville

Championship

#1 Wichita State over #2 Creighton

Northeast Conference

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island Brooklyn over #8 Sacred Heart

#2 Wagner over #7 Central Connecticut State

#3 Robert Morris over #6 Monmouth

#4 St. Francis (NY) over #5 Quinnipiac

Semifinals

#1 Long Island Brooklyn over #4 St. Francis (NY)

#2 Wagner over #3 Robert Morris

Championship

#1 Long Island Brooklyn over #2 Wagner

The College Basketball Blog: 2012 Conference Tournament Predictions (Part I)

I can’t believe it’s that time of year again. Here are my predictions for the tourneys that begin on Monday and Tuesday.

Big South Conference

First Round

#7 VMI over #10 Radford

#8 High Point over #9 Gardner-Webb

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Ashville over #8 High Point

#2 Coastal Carolina over #7 VMI

#3 Campbell over #6 Winthrop

#5 Liberty over #4 Charleston Southern

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Ashville over #5 Liberty

#3 Campbell over #2 Coastal Carolina

Championship

#1 UNC-Ashville over #3 Campbell

Horizon League

First Round

#3 Detroit over #10 Loyola-Illinois

#4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee over #9 Illinois-Chicago

#5 Butler over #8 Wright State

#7 Wisconsin-Green Bay over #6 Youngstown State

Second Round

#3 Detroit over #7 Wisconsin-Green Bay

#5 Butler over #4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso over #5 Butler

#2 Cleveland State over #3 Detroit

Championship

#1 Valparaiso over #2 Cleveland State

The NFL Blog: 2011 Betting Lines (Season Review)

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (1-0); Straight Up: (0-1)

Playoffs: Vs. Spread: (6-5); Straight Up: (5-6)

Season: Vs. Spread: (139-119-9); Straight Up: (179-88)

Playoffs Review: Well, the Super Bowl was another classic. Unfortunately I didn’t enjoy the ending because I was rooting pretty hard for the Pats/against the Giants. Not only that but every time I told someone I was picking the Pats to win by less than 3 they responded incredulously. But I started to believe in my pick more and more. I thought I had it nailed. It was 17-15 with time running down. It was not to be.

So, I didn’t pick the winner of the Super Bowl correctly which bugs me. Plus, that loss meant that I would be under .500 straight up in the playoffs which also annoys me. Looking at the bright side, at least I got a win ATS in the SB and finished over .500 ATS in the playoffs.

The wild card round is what screwed my playoff record. That was my worst round of the playoffs, as I went 1-3 ATS and just 2-2 picking winners. My best round of the playoffs was the divisional round when I was 3-1 ATS and again 2-2 straight up. I split the 2 championship games both ATS and straight up. Last week I won ATS but did not pick the winner of the big game.

Even though I finished over .500 ATS in the playoffs and 5-6 isn’t the worst record straight up, it does bother me that I didn’t go over .500 straight up in any round of the playoffs. I was under .500 straight up in 1 round (Super Bowl) and went .500 straight up in the other 3 rounds. I was over .500 ATS in 2 rounds; below .500 ATS in 1 round; and at .500 ATS in the other round.

Season Review: Despite a somewhat disappointing playoff performance this was a pretty good year for me overall. It didn’t start out too hot but I never got into a deep hole as I have in other years. Then I started to get rolling. I really never got smokin’ hot; I just did okay for a long time and it started to add up.

I had a good year picking winners, but to be honest, I have a feeling that might have more to do with how favorites do than me. I don’t know that for sure. I haven’t researched it and I don’t really have time to now. I just have a sneaking suspicion that since I’m not having to consider “value” I probably don’t pick that many moneyline upsets.

With that in mind I’ve decided that next year I’m going to keep track of moneyline upset picks just like I do in CFB. A common theme for me on the blog this year has been making changes. In many cases I’ve been doing a complete 180 and deciding to do something that I had previously decided against. In this case I can’t figure out why I haven’t been doing it all along. I guess I just never thought of it since any team can win any game on any Sunday. So that’ll be new for next year.

My season got off to a bad start when I went 6-9-1 ATS and just 8-8 straight up in week 1. However, it turned out that my first week would be my worst week of the season. It took me a while to get on a roll ATS. I was under .500 ATS in 2 of the first 3 weeks and in 3 of the first 6 weeks. Then I went on a nice run of solid performances, finishing over .500 ATS in each of the next 5 weeks.

That streak ended with back-to-back non-winning weeks ATS but I dodged the sort of disastrous week that I’m capable of having. Even during that 2-week mini-slump I was just 1-game under .500. I then put together 3 more solid winning weeks ATS and that gave me a nice big cushion.

Last season I needed to beat the spread in the SB to finish over .500 for the year. I didn’t have to worry about that sort of thing this year. From week 7 through week 16 I finished at least 2 games over .500 ATS in 8 of 10 weeks, while only posting 1 losing record ATS, and even that week I was only 1 game below .500. I finished the year like I started it, going 6-9-1 ATS in week 17, but by that point I could deal with an off week.

It didn’t take me as long to get going picking games straight up. After the 8-8 false start in week 1, I was at least 3 games over .500 straight up in each of the next 7 weeks. After a 7-7 setback in week 9, I closed out the season with winning records straight up in the final 8 weeks, picking at least 10 winners in each of the final 7 weeks of the regular season.

I was 11-5-1 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 17 weeks of the regular season. I was 2-1-1 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 4 weeks of the playoffs. Overall I was 13-6-2 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 21 weeks of the season.

I was 15-0-2 (over-under-at .500) straight up during the 17 weeks of the regular season. I went just 0-1-3 (over-under-at .500) during the 4 playoff weeks. Overall I was 15-1-5 (over-under-at .500) straight up during the 21 weeks of the season.

My best streak ATS was 5 straight weeks over .500 (week 7 through week 11). That was also my best streak at .500 or better ATS. My worst streak ATS was back-to-back weeks under .500 (week 17 and WC round). My longest streak of non-winning records ATS was also 2 straight weeks which I did twice (week 12 and week 13; week 17 and WC round).

My best streak straight up was 8 straight weeks over .500 (week 10 through week 17). I was at .500 or better straight up in 20 straight weeks until I went 0-1 in the SB. That was my only week below .500 straight up this season. My longest streak of non-winning records straight up was the 4 weeks of the playoffs.

Other than SB week when I was 1-0 ATS, my best record ATS this season was 11-5 (.688) which I did twice (week 4 and week 10). My best record straight up was 14-2 (.875) in week 17.

Other than the WC round when I was just 1-3 ATS (.250), my worst record ATS this season was 5-11 (.313) in week 3. Other than the SB when I was 0-1 straight up, my worst record straight up this season came in weeks 1 (8-8) and 9 (7-7).

Overall my best week this season was week 4 when I went 11-5 both ATS and straight up (.688). My worst week overall was week 1 when I went 6-9-1 ATS (.400) and 8-8 straight up (.500).

This was my best year yet picking games. I finished with by far my best record ever ATS, going 139-119-9 (.539). This was also my best year picking winners, as I finished 179-88 (.670). This was the 3^rd straight season I went 6-5 ATS in the playoffs (.545) after going 7-4 ATS (.636) in the playoffs in the first year of this blog. The only real downer for me was my record picking winners in the playoffs, as my 5-6 record (.455) was my worst ever.

My records for all 4 years of this blog are listed below.

2008

ATS: 128-128-11 (.500)

Straight Up: 169-97-1 (.635)

Playoffs ATS: 7-4 (.636)

Playoffs Straight Up: 6-5 (.545)

2009

ATS: 127-134-6 (.487)

Straight Up: 177-90 (.663)

Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)

Playoffs Straight Up: 7-4 (.636)

2010

ATS: 131-130-6 (.502)

Straight Up: 165-102 (.618)

Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)

Playoffs Straight Up: 8-3 (.727)

2011

ATS: 139-119-9 (.539)

Straight Up: 179-88 (.670)

Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)

Playoffs Straight Up: 5-6 (.455)

The NFL Blog: 2011 Power Rankings (Season Review)

2011 NFL Power Rankings Season Review

I know I’ve already posted a final edition of the power rankings. Furthermore, I think we all realize that most people wouldn’t have much interest in a breakdown of how each NFL team faired in my rankings throughout the season. However, I know that just the opposite is true for you imaginary readers. I wasn’t about to put the NFL season to bed without providing my fans with a superfluous end of the year review of my power rankings.

Ranking the Teams One More Time

Listed below are the 32 NFL teams, ranked by their average position in my 2011 rankings. This year there were 19 editions of my power rankings (preseason; the 17 weeks of the regular season; and a final post-playoffs edition). Each team’s mean average is listed in parenthesis.

1. Green Bay (1.53)

2. New Orleans (3.26)

3. New England (3.89)

4. Pittsburgh (5.00)

5. Baltimore (5.74)

6. San Francisco (8.00)

7. Houston (9.21)

8. New York Jets (10.16)

9. New York Giants (10.47)

10. Detroit (10.53)

11. San Diego (11.26)

12. Dallas (12.11)

13. Philadelphia (12.16)

14. Atlanta (12.89)

15. Chicago (14.21)

16. Oakland (18.26)

17. Tennessee (18.63)

(T)18. Buffalo (19.32)

(T)18. Cincinnati (19.32)

20. Tampa (19.47)

21. Carolina (20.89)

22. Miami (21.37)

23. Kansas City (21.42)

24. Arizona (21.47)

25. Denver (24.58)

26. Washington (25.05)

27. Seattle (25.32)

28. Cleveland (25.84)

29. Minnesota (26.89)

30. Jacksonville (27.47)

31. Indianapolis (28.74)

32. St. Louis (29.21)

Notes: In case anyone’s wondering, yes, the Bills and Bengals did have the exact same mean average position this season; the tie is not a result of rounding up. These numbers are interesting (at least to me) but they are probably not quite as useful as they would be if I excluded some of the early rankings. Preseason rankings are always going to help some teams and hurt others.

San Diego’s #11 ranking is higher than you might expect. This is due to the fact that they were my #2 team in the preseason power rankings. Their 4-1 start over the first 6 weeks (their bye was week 6) ensured that they would stay near the top of my rankings for a good portion of the season. They ended up having a very disappointing season but that isn’t really reflected here.

The Bucs are a similar case, as they were #17 in my preseason rankings and started out 4-2. They are 20^th based on mean average and that’s not at all reflective of how their season went. Arizona was hurt by their preseason ranking (#32) and their subsequent 1-6 start. Thus they are #24 in terms of mean average despite going 7-2 in their last 9 games to finish 8-8.

The #1 Spot

Only 3 different teams held the top spot in my rankings for at least 1 of the 19 editions. New England was the #1 team in my preseason power rankings and held the top spot through the first 2 weeks of the season. The Packers took over the #1 ranking in week 3 and maintained the top position for the remainder of the regular season, holding down the #1 spot for 15 straight weeks. The Giants finished with the #1 ranking in my final power rankings.

The #32 Spot

There was more variety in the bottom spot than there was in the top spot. 5 different teams were ranked #32 in at least 1 of the 19 editions of my power rankings. The Cards were the #32 team in my preseason rankings; Denver took the lowest spot after week 1; and the Seahawks were in the bottom position after week 2.

The Rams hit bottom in week 3 and they maintained the #32 ranking for 4 straight weeks. In total, St. Louis was the #32 team in 8 of 19 editions. The Colts were also ranked #32 in 8 of 19 editions. In fact, Indy held the bottom spot for 8 straight weeks from week 8 through week 15. St. Louis moved back down to #32 in week 16 and they remained in the bottom spot for the final 3 editions. STL and Indy tied for the most weeks spent at #32 with 8 apiece.

Moving

The average number of teams moving up or down at least one spot in my rankings each week this season was 21.72 out of 32. Not surprisingly, the final edition was the one with the least changes, as most of the teams had not played since the last set of rankings. Only 12 of 32 teams moved up or down at least 1 spot in my final rankings. Outside of the final edition, the calmest week was week 6 when only 15 of 32 teams experienced change. The wildest week was week 3 when 29 of 32 teams changed places.

Week 3 may have been the most chaotic week of the season in my rankings, but week 5 was also crazy due to a few teams making major moves. The biggest 1 week rise in the rankings for a team this season was +8. The Bills, Raiders, and Niners each accomplished the feat once this season and all 3 teams made the jump in week 5. The biggest 1 week drop in the rankings by a team this season was -16 for Kansas City in week 2, as they dropped from #12 all the way to #28.

Team Overviews

The following is a breakdown of each team’s experience in my 2011 power rankings. Teams are listed in order of their mean average position in the rankings (given in parenthesis). Beneath each team’s name the following data is listed: preseason ranking; final ranking; mode ranking (most frequent ranking during the season); peak ranking; nadir (opposite of peak) ranking; biggest 1-week rise; and biggest 1-week drop.

Green Bay (1.53)

Preseason: 5

Final: 2

Mode: 1 (x15)

Peak: 1 (x15)

Nadir: 5

Biggest Rise: +2

Biggest Drop: -1

New Orleans (3.26)

Preseason: 8

Final: 4

Mode: 2 (x10)

Peak: 2 (x10)

Nadir: 8

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -3

New England (3.89)

Preseason: 1

Final: 5

Mode: 5 (x7)

Peak: 1 (x3)

Nadir: 7

Biggest Rise: +2

Biggest Drop: -3

Pittsburgh (5.00)

Preseason: 3

Final: 7

Mode: 4 (x7)

Peak: 2

Nadir: 8 (x2)

Biggest Rise: +2 (x3)

Biggest Drop: -5

Baltimore (5.74)

Preseason: 7

Final: 6

Mode: 6 (x8)

Peak: 2

Nadir: 9

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -4

San Francisco (8.00)

Preseason: 23

Final: 3

Mode: 3 (x7)

Peak: 2 (x3)

Nadir: 23

Biggest Rise: +8

Biggest Drop: -2

Houston (9.21)

Preseason: 14

Final: 8

Mode: 8 (x4)

Peak: 6 (x3)

Nadir: 14

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -5

New York Jets (10.16)

Preseason: 6

Final: 19

Mode: 7 (x3); 10 (x3); 13 (x3)

Peak: 5 (x2)

Nadir: 19

Biggest Rise: +2 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -9

New York Giants (10.47)

Preseason: 11

Final: 1

Mode: 8 (x4); 17 (x4)

Peak: 1

Nadir: 17 (x4)

Biggest Rise: +6 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -8

Detroit (10.53)

Preseason: 19

Final: 11

Mode: 8 (x5)

Peak: 7 (x2)

Nadir: 19

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -2 (x3)

San Diego (11.26)

Preseason: 2

Final: 16

Mode: 2 (x3); 4 (x3); 16 (x3)

Peak: 2 (x3)

Nadir: 22

Biggest Rise: +3 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -4 (x2)

Dallas (12.11)

Preseason: 16

Final: 12

Mode: 14 (x4)

Peak: 7

Nadir: 17

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -4

Philadelphia (12.16)

Preseason: 4

Final: 9

Mode: 15 (x5)

Peak: 3

Nadir: 19

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -5 (x2)

Atlanta (12.89)

Preseason: 9

Final: 10

Mode: 11 (x4)

Peak: 9 (x2)

Nadir: 18 (x2)

Biggest Rise: +3

Biggest Drop: -4

Chicago (14.21)

Preseason: 12

Final: 24

Mode: 12 (x5)

Peak: 6

Nadir: 26 (x2)

Biggest Rise: +3 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -10

Oakland (18.26)

Preseason: 25

Final: 22

Mode: 11 (x2); 14 (x2); 18 (x2); 19 (x2); 20 (x2); 21 (x2); 22 (x2)

Peak: 11 (x2)

Nadir: 25

Biggest Rise: +8

Biggest Drop: -7

Tennessee (18.63)

Preseason: 21

Final: 21

Mode: 21 (x6)

Peak: 13

Nadir: 22

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -8

Buffalo (19.32)

Preseason: 31

Final: 26

Mode: 26 (x3)

Peak: 7

Nadir: 31

Biggest Rise: +8

Biggest Drop: -6

Cincinnati (19.32)

Preseason: 28

Final: 17

Mode: 17 (x4)

Peak: 14 (x3)

Nadir: 28

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -3 (x2)

Tampa Bay (19.47)

Preseason: 17

Final: 31

Mode: 18 (x3); 31 (x3)

Peak: 11

Nadir: 31 (x3)

Biggest Rise: +2 (x3)

Biggest Drop: -5

Carolina (20.89)

Preseason: 20

Final: 23

Mode: 20 (x6); 22 (x6)

Peak: 19

Nadir: 28

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -3 (x3)

Miami (21.37)

Preseason: 15

Final: 14

Mode: 15 (x4)

Peak: 14 (x2)

Nadir: 31 (x2)

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -9

Kansas City (21.42)

Preseason: 10

Final: 20

Mode: 23 (x5)

Peak: 10

Nadir: 28

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -16

Arizona (21.47)

Preseason: 32

Final: 13

Mode: 24 (x5)

Peak: 13 (x2)

Nadir: 32

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -3

Denver (24.58)

Preseason: 27

Final: 18

Mode: 30 (x4)

Peak: 14

Nadir: 32

Biggest Rise: +5

Biggest Drop: -6

Washington (25.05)

Preseason: 30

Final: 27

Mode: 27 (x4)

Peak: 19

Nadir: 31

Biggest Rise: +7

Biggest Drop: -4

Seattle (25.32)

Preseason: 26

Final: 15

Mode: 26 (x4)

Peak: 15 (x2)

Nadir: 32

Biggest Rise: +4 (x3)

Biggest Drop: -5

Cleveland (25.84)

Preseason: 22

Final: 25

Mode: 25 (x7)

Peak: 22 (x2)

Nadir: 30

Biggest Rise: +4 (x3)

Biggest Drop: -8

Minnesota (26.89)

Preseason: 24

Final: 30

Mode: 30 (x6)

Peak: 23

Nadir: 31 (x3)

Biggest Rise: +4 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -8

Jacksonville (27.47)

Preseason: 29

Final: 28

Mode: 28 (x7)

Peak: 23 (x2)

Nadir: 31

Biggest Rise: +3 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -3

Indianapolis (28.74)

Preseason: 13

Final: 29

Mode: 32 (x8)

Peak: 13

Nadir: 32 (x8)

Biggest Rise: +2 (x2)

Biggest Drop: -10

St. Louis (29.21)

Preseason: 18

Final: 32

Mode: 32 (x8)

Peak: 18 (x2)

Nadir: 32 (x8)

Biggest Rise: +4

Biggest Drop: -7 (x2)