Last Week: Vs. Spread: (1-0); Straight Up: (0-1)
Playoffs: Vs. Spread: (6-5); Straight Up: (5-6)
Season: Vs. Spread: (139-119-9); Straight Up: (179-88)
Playoffs Review: Well, the Super Bowl was another classic. Unfortunately I didn’t enjoy the ending because I was rooting pretty hard for the Pats/against the Giants. Not only that but every time I told someone I was picking the Pats to win by less than 3 they responded incredulously. But I started to believe in my pick more and more. I thought I had it nailed. It was 17-15 with time running down. It was not to be.
So, I didn’t pick the winner of the Super Bowl correctly which bugs me. Plus, that loss meant that I would be under .500 straight up in the playoffs which also annoys me. Looking at the bright side, at least I got a win ATS in the SB and finished over .500 ATS in the playoffs.
The wild card round is what screwed my playoff record. That was my worst round of the playoffs, as I went 1-3 ATS and just 2-2 picking winners. My best round of the playoffs was the divisional round when I was 3-1 ATS and again 2-2 straight up. I split the 2 championship games both ATS and straight up. Last week I won ATS but did not pick the winner of the big game.
Even though I finished over .500 ATS in the playoffs and 5-6 isn’t the worst record straight up, it does bother me that I didn’t go over .500 straight up in any round of the playoffs. I was under .500 straight up in 1 round (Super Bowl) and went .500 straight up in the other 3 rounds. I was over .500 ATS in 2 rounds; below .500 ATS in 1 round; and at .500 ATS in the other round.
Season Review: Despite a somewhat disappointing playoff performance this was a pretty good year for me overall. It didn’t start out too hot but I never got into a deep hole as I have in other years. Then I started to get rolling. I really never got smokin’ hot; I just did okay for a long time and it started to add up.
I had a good year picking winners, but to be honest, I have a feeling that might have more to do with how favorites do than me. I don’t know that for sure. I haven’t researched it and I don’t really have time to now. I just have a sneaking suspicion that since I’m not having to consider “value” I probably don’t pick that many moneyline upsets.
With that in mind I’ve decided that next year I’m going to keep track of moneyline upset picks just like I do in CFB. A common theme for me on the blog this year has been making changes. In many cases I’ve been doing a complete 180 and deciding to do something that I had previously decided against. In this case I can’t figure out why I haven’t been doing it all along. I guess I just never thought of it since any team can win any game on any Sunday. So that’ll be new for next year.
My season got off to a bad start when I went 6-9-1 ATS and just 8-8 straight up in week 1. However, it turned out that my first week would be my worst week of the season. It took me a while to get on a roll ATS. I was under .500 ATS in 2 of the first 3 weeks and in 3 of the first 6 weeks. Then I went on a nice run of solid performances, finishing over .500 ATS in each of the next 5 weeks.
That streak ended with back-to-back non-winning weeks ATS but I dodged the sort of disastrous week that I’m capable of having. Even during that 2-week mini-slump I was just 1-game under .500. I then put together 3 more solid winning weeks ATS and that gave me a nice big cushion.
Last season I needed to beat the spread in the SB to finish over .500 for the year. I didn’t have to worry about that sort of thing this year. From week 7 through week 16 I finished at least 2 games over .500 ATS in 8 of 10 weeks, while only posting 1 losing record ATS, and even that week I was only 1 game below .500. I finished the year like I started it, going 6-9-1 ATS in week 17, but by that point I could deal with an off week.
It didn’t take me as long to get going picking games straight up. After the 8-8 false start in week 1, I was at least 3 games over .500 straight up in each of the next 7 weeks. After a 7-7 setback in week 9, I closed out the season with winning records straight up in the final 8 weeks, picking at least 10 winners in each of the final 7 weeks of the regular season.
I was 11-5-1 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 17 weeks of the regular season. I was 2-1-1 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 4 weeks of the playoffs. Overall I was 13-6-2 (over-under-at .500) ATS during the 21 weeks of the season.
I was 15-0-2 (over-under-at .500) straight up during the 17 weeks of the regular season. I went just 0-1-3 (over-under-at .500) during the 4 playoff weeks. Overall I was 15-1-5 (over-under-at .500) straight up during the 21 weeks of the season.
My best streak ATS was 5 straight weeks over .500 (week 7 through week 11). That was also my best streak at .500 or better ATS. My worst streak ATS was back-to-back weeks under .500 (week 17 and WC round). My longest streak of non-winning records ATS was also 2 straight weeks which I did twice (week 12 and week 13; week 17 and WC round).
My best streak straight up was 8 straight weeks over .500 (week 10 through week 17). I was at .500 or better straight up in 20 straight weeks until I went 0-1 in the SB. That was my only week below .500 straight up this season. My longest streak of non-winning records straight up was the 4 weeks of the playoffs.
Other than SB week when I was 1-0 ATS, my best record ATS this season was 11-5 (.688) which I did twice (week 4 and week 10). My best record straight up was 14-2 (.875) in week 17.
Other than the WC round when I was just 1-3 ATS (.250), my worst record ATS this season was 5-11 (.313) in week 3. Other than the SB when I was 0-1 straight up, my worst record straight up this season came in weeks 1 (8-8) and 9 (7-7).
Overall my best week this season was week 4 when I went 11-5 both ATS and straight up (.688). My worst week overall was week 1 when I went 6-9-1 ATS (.400) and 8-8 straight up (.500).
This was my best year yet picking games. I finished with by far my best record ever ATS, going 139-119-9 (.539). This was also my best year picking winners, as I finished 179-88 (.670). This was the 3rd straight season I went 6-5 ATS in the playoffs (.545) after going 7-4 ATS (.636) in the playoffs in the first year of this blog. The only real downer for me was my record picking winners in the playoffs, as my 5-6 record (.455) was my worst ever.
My records for all 4 years of this blog are listed below.
2008
ATS: 128-128-11 (.500)
Straight Up: 169-97-1 (.635)
Playoffs ATS: 7-4 (.636)
Playoffs Straight Up: 6-5 (.545)
2009
ATS: 127-134-6 (.487)
Straight Up: 177-90 (.663)
Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)
Playoffs Straight Up: 7-4 (.636)
2010
ATS: 131-130-6 (.502)
Straight Up: 165-102 (.618)
Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)
Playoffs Straight Up: 8-3 (.727)
2011
ATS: 139-119-9 (.539)
Straight Up: 179-88 (.670)
Playoffs ATS: 6-5 (.545)
Playoffs Straight Up: 5-6 (.455)
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