Last
Week: Vs. Spread: (14-2); Straight Up: (13-3)
Season:
Vs.
Spread: (124-110-6); Straight Up: (156-83-1)
Week
16 Review: Finally a good week. I was due after
all. And now if I can avoid disaster in the final week I should end the regular
season with a decent record.
Week
17 Preview: Week 17 is always one of the most
challenging weeks of the season because you have to determine which teams will
actually show up. Because week 17 is such a different week, I’ll be making
comments for each game to layout the possible playoff implications and
motivations.
I spent a good portion
of last week talking about the schedule and it turns out I was wrong. There
will be a Sunday night game this week, but there is no Monday night game. In
fact, this will be the most well balanced schedule of the year, with 9 games
during the early slate, 6 games starting in the later slate, and 1 night game.
I will just be hoping
to avoid disaster and that could be tricky due to the strangeness of the last
week of the regular season.
Sunday’s
Early Games
Baltimore (+3) @
Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals cover
Playoff Implications:
Mild.
The Bengals are locked
into the #6 seed, and therefore cannot improve or hurt their playoff position
with a win or loss in this game.
The Ravens have
clinched the AFC North and will either be the #3 or #4 seed in the AFC. In
other words, they cannot earn a bye and they’ve clinched home field advantage
in the first round.
A Baltimore win and a
loss by the Patriots later in the day would move the Ravens to the #3 seed. A
#3 seed would give the Ravens a chance at hosting the AFC Championship Game if
the #1 seed was upset by the #4 or #5 seed. In addition, assuming the #1 seed
was not upset, the Ravens wouldn’t have to face the #1 seed until the AFC
Championship Game. A #4 seed would mean their only chance of hosting the AFC
Championship Game would be if the #6 seed upset both the #3 and #1 seeds. And
unless the #6 seed upset the #3 seed, Baltimore would have to play the #1 seed in the
second round.
This may not be enough
motivation for the Ravens to go all out. For one thing, Baltimore has struggled
with injuries all year and they can’t afford to suffer any other losses. In
addition, the Ravens might not see much advantage in being #3 vs. being #4. Even
if you tried to look at different scenarios that the Ravens might prefer, they’ll
have no way of knowing whether it will end up being more advantageous to be #3
or #4.
The Ravens will also
have to consider the fact that they may end up at the #4 seed whether they win
or lose. In other words, even if Baltimore did think the #3 seed was worth
playing for, it’s highly unlikely that the Patriots will lose at home to Miami
anyway.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
For the Bengals, there
doesn’t seem to be any sense in playing this game all out. Beyond the usual
health risks, if they end up losing, there’s a chance of a rematch in Baltimore
next week, so the Bengals may also want to play as vanilla as possible. That’s
also another reason why the Ravens might play vanilla. Of course, if either
side really wanted a rematch or really wanted to avoid a rematch it could impact
how they played the game.
Interestingly enough,
Marvin Lewis has at least started off the week talking as if the Bengals will
not be resting players. He has pointed out that they rested their starters
twice before in this position and lost in the playoffs both times.
My conclusion: both
sides will play the game as if the outcome doesn’t matter, meaning it will be
something like a preseason game.
Cleveland (+7) @
Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but
Browns beat the spread
Playoff Implications:
None. Both teams are out of contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game. The Browns would love to end their season with
a win over the Steelers. The Steelers don’t want to end their season with a
loss at home to the Browns. Remember: the Steelers lost earlier this season in
Cleveland and they don’t want to get swept.
For the Steelers,
another motivational factor might be getting to 8-8 vs. a losing season.
The Steelers are a
banged up bunch that has to be feeling down about missing out on the playoffs. However,
the Browns are also extremely banged up, with a possibility that they will be
without both their starting QB and RB for this game.
Draft Implications: The
Browns would pick no worse than 7th with a loss. If they win, they
could end up out of the top 10.
Houston (-7) @
Indianapolis
Pick: Texans win but
Colts beat the spread
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
The Colts are locked
into the #5 seed and cannot improve or hurt their playoff position with a win
or a loss.
The Texans, on the
other hand, could end up as the #1, #2, or #3 seed. For Houston it’s simple: a
win equals the #1 seed in the AFC, a first round bye, and home field advantage
throughout the playoffs. A loss would mean the Texans would need huge upsets by
the Dolphins and Chiefs on the road against the Patriots and Broncos
respectively in order to gain the #1 seed. In addition, they would need at
least one of those upsets to occur in order to avoid losing the first round
bye. In other words, this is a huge game for the Texans.
Other Motivational
Factors: Despite being locked into the #5 seed, there are some reasons why the
Colts might play this game straight. Head coach Chuck Pagano is returning to
the sidelines for the first time since leaving to undergo treatment for leukemia,
so the team will once again have inspiration. The team may also want to play a
full speed game with Pagano at head coach just so they won’t be doing it for
the first time in the playoffs.
There’s also the issue
of confidence and being prepared for the next battle. The Colts haven’t beaten
anyone of note since the first week of October and they’ve really only played
two games against a contending team since then. They may look at this as a
chance to gain some experience and maybe some confidence heading into the
playoffs. It’s not anywhere near as dramatic a situation but it’s somewhat
comparable to the Giants playing to win against New England in 2007.
Jacksonville (+4) @
Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but
Jags beat the spread
Playoff Implications:
None. Both teams are out of contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: I can’t think of much. Both head coaches should be secure, as this was
Mike Mularkey’s first season in Jacksonville and the Titans went 9-7 last year
in Mike Munchak’s first season. However, the always emotional and sometimes
erratic Bud Adams seems to be the type of owner who is moved by embarrassing losses,
and the Titans suffered another one last week.
Judging by last week’s
results, the Jags are much more engaged in the season than the Titans, but the
opposite conclusion could have been drawn from week 15’s results.
Draft Implications:
Jacksonville would eliminate their chance of picking #1 with a win. The Titans
could also hurt their draft position with a win, perhaps moving out of the top
10.
Philadelphia (+7) @ New
York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Playoff Implications: Significant.
This game could end up
being meaningless by the time the early games are over, but it could also end
up being huge by the end of the day.
Obviously, the Eagles
were cashed long ago.
The Giants are still
alive but they are on life support. The Giants must win to keep their playoff
hopes alive; a loss eliminates them.
Even if the Giants win,
it seems unlikely that they’ll be alive by the end of the early game slate, as
a win by the Bears at Detroit would eliminate them. However, the Bears have not
played that well lately and the Lions will have some motivation, so it’s not
out of the question.
If the Giants are alive
at 4:30 PM they will still be in dire straits but they will have cleared the
most unlikely hurdle. They would still need to have favorable outcomes in a
pair of games with teams fighting for the playoffs.
They would need the
Packers (playing for the #2 seed) to beat Minnesota (playing for a spot in the
playoffs) on the road during the later game slate. A win by the Vikings would
eliminate NYG.
Finally, they would
need the Redskins to win at home over the Cowboys in the night game. At that
point, if the Giants have won and the Vikings and Bears have lost, the Redskins
will have clinched a playoff spot. The Boys would be playing a “win you’re in,
lose you’re out” game, while the Skins would be in the playoffs win or lose but
would still have home field advantage in the first round at stake.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game and the Eagles would love to personally
eliminate the Giants.
The Eagles may also be
playing their last game for coach Andy Reid.
In addition, Michael
Vick is expected to play for Philly, and while he isn’t admitting it, this will
be an audition of sorts for him.
Draft Implications: A
win by the Eagles could very well move them out of the top 5 in the draft.
New York Jets (+3.5) @
Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover
Playoff Implications:
None. Both teams are out of contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: These two teams have played each other since the days of the NFL and
they reside in the same state (well, sort of), but is this really a rivalry? I
guess it is.
I’m not sure this game
will have any effect on the coaching situations.
The Jets seem to be
sticking with Rex Ryan.
One would think Chan
Gailey is done in Buffalo.
Draft Implications: The
Bills could climb into the top of the draft with a loss and could fall out of
the top 10 in the draft if they win. The Jets are currently at #11 and but
could move into the top 10 with a loss.
Chicago (-3) @ Detroit
Pick: Bears cover
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
The Bears must win to
stay alive for the playoffs; a loss would eliminate them. If the Bears win,
they would then need the Packers to beat the Vikings on the road later in the
day to secure the final playoff spot in the NFC as the #6 seed. If the Bears
win and the Vikings win, the Bears will be eliminated.
The Lions are obviously
not in contention for the playoffs.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
The Lions are obviously
one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments this season but I don’t think Jim
Schwartz’s job is in real jeopardy. On the other hand, a win over the Bears in
front of the home fans would go a long way towards lifting spirits within the
organization.
The Lions (and the
fans) will certainly be focused on getting Calvin Johnson the NFL single season
receiving yards record if possible. In a way, this could end up helping the
Bears, as Matt Stafford is already prone to forcing the ball into Johnson, and
he could be even more so on Sunday.
Draft Implications: The
Lions are currently in the #5 slot in the draft, so a win in this game could
end up hurting their draft pick significantly.
Tampa Bay (+3) @
Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Playoff Implications:
None. The Falcons have clinched the #1 seed in the NFC and the Bucs have been
eliminated.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
The Bucs are in a
tailspin and it’s unclear if the players have turned on the coaching staff or
if that is just speculation.
I expect the Falcons to
play this game like a preseason game. That is: to pull starters at some point
in the 2nd half in order to avoid injuries. I do think the Falcons
will play healthy starters for at least part of the game due to the fact that
they will be off the next week and will then have the biggest game of the year
coming up after that.
At the same time, the Falcons must be cautious, as they
are not an extremely deep team. In addition, the Buccaneers are going to come
into this game angry and frustrated, and Atlanta should be wary of cheap shots,
especially considering the late game tactics that Tampa has used throughout the
season.
Draft Implications: The
Bucs are currently 12th in the draft order and a win could push them
towards the middle of the 1st round.
Carolina (+5) @ New
Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Playoff Implications:
None. Both teams are out of contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
The Panthers have been
playing much better down the stretch and they will want to finish the year on a
high note. That may end up being particularly important for head coach Ron
Rivera, who has looked to be in over his head at times.
The Saints have several
motivating factors. I think they will definitely be somewhat motivated by a
chance to finish 8-8. They will also come into the game angry and frustrated
after a year tumultuous year.
Draft Implications: The
Panthers could end up drafting in the second half of the 1st round
if they win this game.
Sunday’s
Late Games
Kansas City (+16) @
Denver
Pick: Broncos cover
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
Depending on what happens
between Houston and Indy earlier in the day, the Broncos could be playing this
game with a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC. If Houston wins, the Texans will
claim the #1 seed. If Houston loses to the Colts, the Broncos would need only a
win over the Chiefs to grab home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Even if the Texans win,
the Broncos will still have something to play for, as they will need a win in
order to secure the #2 seed and a first round bye. If Denver and New England
lose, the Broncos will hang on to the #2 seed. If Denver loses and the Pats
win, the Broncos would slide to the #3 seed and would have to go to Cincinnati
the next week.
Kansas City has been
out of contention for months.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
Despite earlier
reports, Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli have apparently not
been told that they will be fired, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be told
that at some point after this game. I’m not sure the Chiefs will be playing for
the coach anyway. They played for Crennel last year and it kind of ended up
setting them back a year. I feel like the Chiefs are just ready for this season
to be over.
Draft Implications: If
the Chiefs lose, they are guaranteed to have the #1 pick. If they win and the
Jags lose, the Chiefs would slide to #2. If the Chiefs win and the Jags win KC
would retain the #1 pick.
Oakland (+4.5) @ San
Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Playoff Implications:
None. Both teams are out of contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
If the Chargers want
Norv Turner to be their head coach, I guess they could be playing for his job.
Draft Implications: The
Raiders would have the #3 pick if they lose. The Chargers will draft in the top
10 if they lose.
Arizona (+16.5) @ San
Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
The Niners will be
playing for home field and a first round bye, not to mention the NFC West title.
If the Niners win, they are the division champs and will be either the #2 seed or
the #3 seed in the NFC. If San Francisco wins and the Packers lose at
Minnesota, the Niners will grab the #2 seed, meaning a first round bye and home
field advantage in the second round. If the Packers and 49ers win, San
Francisco will have the #3 seed and will have a home playoff game the first
round.
If the Niners lose,
they would need the Seahawks to lose at home to the Rams in order to take the
#3 seed. If San Fran loses and Seattle wins, the Niners would fall to the #5
seed and would have to play a road playoff game against the NFC East winner
next week. They would also more than likely have to win 3 road games in order
to reach the Super Bowl.
Arizona is not in
contention for the playoffs.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
The Cards may be
playing for their coach’s job.
Draft Implications:
Arizona will have a top 10 pick if they lose.
St. Louis (+10.5) @
Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
Seattle still has a
chance to win both the NFC West title and a first round bye. If the Seahawks
lose, they will be the #5 seed in the NFC. If they win and the Niners win, they
will be the #5 seed. However, if Seattle wins and the Niners lose, the Seahawks
will take the NFC West title. If the Seahawks win and both the Niners and
Packers lose, Seattle would claim the #2 seed and a first round bye. If Seattle
wins, the Niners lose, and the Packers win, the Seahawks will be the #3 seed
and will host a playoff game next week.
St. Louis has been
eliminated from contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
I expect the Rams to be
plenty motivated for this one. They are 7-7-1 and have a chance at team’s first
winning record since 2003. They could also finish the season undefeated (5-0-1)
within the division.
Green Bay (-3.5) @
Minnesota
Pick: Packers cover
Playoff Implications: Major.
This will be one of
only two week 17 games in which both teams will have playoff
chances/positioning on the line.
The Packers will be
playing to secure a first round bye and home field advantage in the second
round. If Green Bay wins, they will be the #2 seed and will have a first round
bye. If they lose, they will need losses by both the Seahawks and 49ers in
order to hang on to the #2 seed, otherwise they will be the #3 seed and will
host the Vikings in a rematch the next week.
No matter what happens
in the earlier games, if the Vikings win, they’re in. They would be the #6 seed
and barring losses by both the Niners and Seahawks they would play in Green Bay
the next week. If both the Giants and Bears are upset earlier in the day, the
Vikings would still be alive if they lost to the Packers, but they would need
the Redskins to beat Dallas in order to get in. If either the Giants or Bears
win their games, the Vikings will be in a do-or-die situation.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is obviously a rivalry game.
The Vikings will also
be thinking about Adrian Peterson’s shot at 2000 yards and the all-time single
season rushing record, although that will obviously be secondary.
Miami (+10) @ New
England
Pick: Patriots cover
Playoff Implications:
Significant.
If Houston loses
earlier in the day, the Patriots will be playing for a shot at the #1 seed.
They would need a win to clinch a first round bye and a loss by the Broncos to
clinch the #1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
If Houston wins, the Pats would need a win and a loss by Denver to claim the #2
seed and a first round bye. If the Pats lose or if both Houston and Denver win,
New England will be the #3 seed and will host the Bengals in the first round.
Miami is not in contention.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
The Dolphins have a
chance to finish 8-8.
Sunday
Night’s Game
Dallas (+3.5) @
Washington
Pick: Skins win but
Cowboys beat the spread
Playoff Implications:
Major.
This is one of only two
week 17 games in which both teams will have playoff chances/position on the
line. Depending on what happens earlier in the day, this could be the only “what
amounts to a playoff game” game of the day.
The Cowboys have the
most simple playoff scenario of any team in week 17. If they win they are the
NFC East champs and the #4 seed. They will host a first round game next week.
If they lose, they are out.
The stakes could end up
being the same for the Redskins. If the Bears or Vikings win earlier in the
day, the Skins will also face a “win you’re in; lose you’re out” scenario. If
both the Bears and Vikings lose earlier in the day, the Redskins will clinch a
playoff spot. They will still be playing for the division title and a home
playoff game in the first round. In that scenario, a win would mean the
division title and the #4 seed; a loss would mean the #6 seed and a road
playoff game the next week.
Depending on how things
shake out, this game could determine the fate of the Vikings or Giants as well.
Other Motivational
Factors: This is a rivalry game.
