Last
Week: Vs. Spread: (6-9-1); Straight Up: (10-6)
Season:
Vs.
Spread: (100-87-5); Straight Up: (124-67-1)
Week
13 Review: Not my best week to be sure. Of course,
it could have been much worse. I mentioned in last week’s blog that I was
worried about picking all of those road teams and underdogs. I thought it could
be a recipe for disaster. For a while on Sunday it looked like that disastrous
week had finally hit.
Because it was such a
crazy week I’m going to have to extend the review section a bit this week and
give the imaginary readers a full recap of what happened (note: nowadays my
memory gets fuzzy really quickly, so I don’t know if my timeline matches up
with reality here, but this is how I remember it).
Until eking out a
backdoor cover in the Vikings-Packers game I didn’t have a single game locked
down. Things were already looking bleak when I was hit with a series of tough
breaks from around 3:30 to 4:00. Chicago and San Francisco both blew leads and
ended up going to overtime. At that point I started to root for them both to
lose, as it would help my Falcons, and fortunately they did. But that basically
made me 1-7 ATS so far, as I had lost the Houston-Tennessee,
Buffalo-Jacksonville, Indianapolis-Detroit, and Carolina-Kansas City games long
before.
Then things got much
worse, as a couple of games that I seemed to have a good chance of winning fell
through. First the Patriots settled for a FG and a 10-point lead with just a
few minutes to play rather than punching in a TD from inside the 5 for a
14-point lead. The 10-point lead would have been enough for me to cover, but
the Dolphins were able to move downfield against NE’s prevent defense, and the
Fins decided to kick a FG on 4th down to make it a 1-score game. It
didn’t matter, as the Patriots recovered the onsides kick to win, but I lost
ATS. Then the Jets had a 1st and goal against Arizona, leading by 1
in the closing minutes. I needed a TD, as the spread was 4.5. Instead, the Jets
got the clock to a point where they didn’t have to run another play and then
just downed the ball.
So I was now looking at
1-9. But out of nowhere the Colts made a comeback. I’d been keeping an eye on
the score but I was considering it a sure loss, as the spread was Indy +4.5 and
they were down 33-21 with only minutes to go. There would be no reason for them
to go for 2 if they scored, so it seemed over. But they got it to 33-28 and
then pulled off a last minute drive, scoring with no time on the clock to win
35-33.
That totally changed my
perspective of the day, as I’d finally had a sure loss turn into a surprise win
rather than the other way around, and 2-8 just seemed a lot better than 1-9.
For one thing, it meant I still had a shot at going .500 and I wouldn’t need to
be that good the rest of the way to avoid a disastrous week. I decided to shoot
for (hope for?) a 6-10 record and anything better than that would just be a
bonus.
The late slate started
off well for me but then things turned. Even in the Tampa-Denver game--where
the Bucs were +8 and led by 3 at the half--I was conflicted, as I wanted Tampa
to lose and clinch the NFC South title for my Falcons. Not too surprisingly
that turned out to be the first of the four late games that I checked as a sure
loss. I had to sweat out the Cinci-San Diego and Cleveland-Oakland games and I
wasn’t very positive about my Pittsburgh pick once they fell behind double
digits. But then the Steelers pulled off a great comeback and Cinci and
Cleveland held on and I knew that I had at least avoided that super disaster
week.
Finally, the Denver and
Tampa Bay coaching strategies combined to deliver me what I will hesitantly
refer to as a “backdoor push.” Once the Broncos got their big lead they really
didn’t push it offensively. The Bucs were content to kick field goals despite
being down double digits, and in the end the Broncos won by 8, giving the
Falcons the division title and me a 3-0-1 record in the late games.
The night game started
off well and I was still in good position late, as the Eagles led by 7 going to
the 4th. Philly led by 3 with less than 10 minutes to go and even
when Dallas scored to take the lead I was still fine because I had Philly +10.
All I needed was for the Eagles to not royally screw up over the last 5
minutes. However, with less than 4 minutes to go, Bryce Brown fumbled yet
again, and Morris Claiborne somehow picked up the ball in the middle of the
field and went 50-yards to the end zone without being touched to make it 38-27.
I was extremely pissed
but I thought there was some hope because there was still 3:50 to play and I
thought Dallas might play in a prevent. I thought the Eagles might even do what
Miami had done earlier in the day and kick a FG to make it a 1-possession game
if they couldn’t get all the way down the field. But when the Eagles turned it
over on downs at the Dallas 45 with 1:52 to play I gave up in disgust.
I checked the situation
on my phone a few minutes later and realized that the Eagles would probably get
the ball back with a minute or so left. I decided not to turn back to the game
and just hope that somehow the score ended up changing. When I looked back a
few minutes later I saw the surprise final of 38-33. I then found out that the
score came on a 98-yard punt return and it was one of the highlights of the day
for me.
That gave me a 6-8-1
record, so if I beat the spread on Monday night I would be as close to .500 as you
could possibly be while still having a losing week. But I really didn’t care. I
wanted the Giants to lose and 6-9-1 is no disaster. It actually felt like I’d
had a good week.
Week
14 Preview: I still have some cushion left but I
feel like I haven’t had a really great week picking games in a while. I’m in
need of a bounce back performance this week. There are 16 games and no byes
once again. The Thursday night game is weak and there are only 3 late games on
Sunday, but both the Sunday and Monday night games should be solid.
As for my picks, I’m
very, very worried. There are a few things causing me disconcertment. For one
thing, I’m coming off of a bad week and I feel like I’m in a bit of a slump.
Also, when I was making my picks I got what seems like a bad break at the
moment but could end up not mattering either way. The Pittsburgh line was late
due to the uncertain QB situation. By the time a line appeared for that game a
number of the other spreads had moved. I’ve always made it a policy to go by the
lines as they are when I actually sit down and make my picks (that way I’m not
tempted to “cheat” and use early lines for some games and late lines for
others), and all of the line changes went against the way I had been planning to
go.
So in a sense, I lost a
half point in a few games. That could end up being a big deal or no deal at
all. What does seem like a big deal to me is something I did after I made my
initial picks; something I never, ever do. I noticed that I was again picking a
number of road teams and underdogs and this gave me a bad feeling so I began to
rethink my picks. I never rethink my picks based on an overall trend that seems
unlikely. For example, I’m not picking a single underdog to win straight up
this week, which almost certainly won’t happen, but I’m not going to go out
searching for an upset to pick. However, I did end up changing my picks in a
number of games ATS. I’m trying to tell myself that I simply changed my mind
and didn’t just change a few picks so I wouldn’t be going with as many road
teams and dogs, but I can’t be sure. I really hope I don’t have a second
straight week of bad picks.
Thursday
Night’s Game
Denver (-10.5) @
Oakland
Pick: Broncos cover
Sunday’s
Early Games
Baltimore (+1) @
Washington
Pick: Skins covers
Kansas City (+6) @
Cleveland
Pick: Browns win but
Chiefs beat the spread
San Diego (+6) @
Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Tennessee (+5.5) @
Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
New York Jets (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jets cover
Chicago (-2.5) @
Minnesota
Pick: Bears cover
Atlanta (-3.5) @
Carolina
Pick: Falcons cover
Philadelphia (+7.5) @
Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs cover
St. Louis (+3) @
Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover
Dallas (+3) @
Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals cover
Sunday’s
Late Games
Miami (+10) @ San
Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
New Orleans (+5) @ New
York Giants
Pick: Giants win but
Saints beat the spread
Arizona (+10.5) @
Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Sunday
Night’s Game
Detroit (+7) @ Green
Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Monday
Night’s Game
Houston (+3.5) @ New
England
Pick: Patriots win but
Texans beat the spread
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