Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The NFL Blog: 2011 Week 17 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (9-7); Straight Up: (10-6)

Season: Vs. Spread: (127-105-8); Straight Up: (160-80)

Week 16 Review: Well, I had a disappointing end to the week, as I was 8-3 ATS going into the late afternoon games on Saturday, and ended up just 9-7 ATS. All and all, however, considering how tricky of a week it was, I guess anything over .500 is acceptable.

Week 17 Preview: This is the trickiest week of the NFL season because it’s so difficult to judge the kind of effort each team will give. The NFL has done a good job of spacing the games out and making each game a divisional game to try and make things as legit as possible. But it’s still a tough call because you don’t know whether teams will risk injuries in order to improve their playoff seeding.


Sunday’s Early Games


Washington (+9) @ Philadelphia

Pick: Eagles cover

Comments: The interest here is to see how the Eagles finish up. It certainly won’t be how they’d expected. The Eagles (7-8 overall; 7-8 ATS) won the offseason championship, but as the Skins know well, that doesn’t necessarily equate to success on the field.

They’ve now won 3 straight (3-0 ATS) but their hopes for a backdoor entrance into the postseason died when the Giants defeated the Jets last weekend. Philly has struggled at home this season, going just 2-5 (2-5 ATS).

The Skins (5-10 overall; 7-8 ATS) had been playing better lately, but that all came to an end last Saturday when they somehow lost to the lowly Vikings at home (26-33), despite the fact that Minnesota lost both RB Adrian Peterson and QB Christian Ponder during the game. Despite last week’s setback, the Skins are still 4-2 ATS in their last 6.

The Eagles were desperate for a win back in week 6 when they won 20-13 at Washington. They have now won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 against Washington. However, they lost to the Skins at home last year and they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 against Washington at home.

With all of their hopes for a Super Bowl championship down the drain, the Eagles will have to refocus and try and salvage something from the year. A win would allow them to finish the year at 8-8 and it would allow them to avoid their first losing season since 2005.

The Skins really don’t have much but pride to play for. This is their 3rd straight season with at least 10 losses and their 6th in the last 9 years. They can at least attempt to match last year’s 6-10 record and avoid losing at least 11 games for the 4th time in the last 9 years.

The Skins have been crushed by injuries again this season. Promising RB Roy Helu (leg) missed the last game and is questionable for this one. For the Eagles, CB Asante Samuel (hamstring) missed last week’s game and is questionable this week.


New York Jets (+1) @ Miami

Pick: Dolphins cover

Comments: The Jets had it coming. In the 2 years prior to this one, the Jets have had a horseshoe up their asses during the regular season, made it into the playoffs as a wildcard, and then managed to upset some better teams on their way to the AFC championship game.

Wait, now that I think about it, what’s to stop them from doing the same thing this season? Sure, they appear to be in deep trouble, but they could still luck out. Hell, in 2009, Fat Rex thought they were eliminated from the playoffs after they lost to my Falcons in week 15.

So maybe it’s too soon to bury them, but they may be in line for some salty come-up-ins. New York (8-7 overall; 6-9 ATS) has lost their last 2 games (0-2 ATS) and they are just 2-5 on the road this season (2-5 ATS).

The Dolphins (5-10 overall; 8-6-1 ATS) were once in the running for the #1 pick, as they lost 7 straight to open the year, but they’ve been one of the more competitive teams in the league since then. At halftime of last week’s game in New England it looked like the Fins were on their way to a surprising win, but they came up 3 points short. Still, they have now either won their game or lost by 3 points or less in 9 of the last 10 weeks. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9.

Back in week 6 the Jets snapped out of their first funk of the season with a 24-6 win over the Fins at home on Monday Night Football. The Jets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in Miami, but the Dolphins have won 4 of the last 6 meetings overall.

It will be interesting to see if the Jets can regroup and pullout the win in this one even though they are no longer in control of their own destiny. They will be trying to finish 9-7 for their 4th straight season with a winning record and (they hope) their 3rd playoff appearance in the last 4 years. A couple of weeks ago they looked (at least to me) like a lock for the postseason, but they need a lot of help at this point. They are currently 4th in line for that final WC spot in the AFC. They will be eliminated with a loss this Sunday.

To get into the playoffs, they need a win and losses by Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Oakland; or a win and losses by Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Denver. In other words, it’s going to be a 4-step process for Jets fans this weekend. First, they need a win. Then they need losses by both the Bengals and the Titans. If all of that happens during the early session they will still be alive heading into the late games. They would then need either the Broncos or the Raiders (or both) to lose.

It sounds like an uphill climb, and it is to be sure, but it’s not as impossible as you might think. They are counting not only on the outcome of their game but also on the outcome of 3 other games to go their way. However, all of those other teams are facing decent or better opponents, and none of the other teams should have easy wins.

The Dolphins will obviously be trying to keep the Jets from doing any late afternoon scoreboard watching. This is Miami’s 3rd straight losing season and their 5th in the last 6 years. This is by far and away the worst slump in franchise history. This is their 4th season of 10 or more losses in the past 8 years. They’ll be trying to avoid just the 3rd season with 11 or more losses since their inaugural season of 1966 (would be 3rd season with 11 or more losses in the last 8 years).

Tackle Jake Long (arm) missed last week’s game for Miami and has now been placed on IR.


Carolina (+9.5) @ New Orleans

Pick: Saints win but Panthers beat the spread

Comments: Okay, so Drew Brees and the Saints are pretty good. The New Orleans QB broke Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record on MNF, surpassing Dan the Man with a game to spare.

The Saints (12-3 overall; 11-4 ATS) have now won 7 straight (7-0 ATS) and they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season (7-0 ATS).

The Saints still have something to play for this week (at least in theory) but the Panthers (6-9 overall; 9-6 ATS) are not pushovers. They’ve won their last 2 games (2-0 ATS) and 4 of their last 5 (4-1 ATS).

Back in week 5, the Saints had a hard time putting away Cam Newton and the Panthers in Carolina, eventually coming away with a 30-27 win. The Saints have won 3 straight and 4 of 5 in this series. They’ve won the last 2 in New Orleans.

The Saints clinched the division title and a 3rd straight season of 11 or more wins on Monday. They’ll be trying for their 2nd 13-win season in the last 3 years. More importantly, they still have a slight chance at the #2 seed in the NFC and a bye week. The chance is only slight because it involves the 49ers somehow losing to the Rams.

The Saints can clinch the #2 seed with a win and a 49ers loss at St. Louis. If the Saints lose or the Niners win, New Orleans will be the #3 seed.

Carolina won’t be in the playoffs this year but they might not be that far off. On Sunday, they’ll be trying to avoid losing 10 or more games in back-to-back years for the first time in franchise history (would be only the 4th season with 10 or more losses in team history).

RB Mark Ingram (toe) and WR Lance Moore (hamstring) are questionable for New Orleans.


Detroit (-3.5) @ Green Bay

Pick: Lions cover

Comments: No matter what happens the rest of the way, this did turn out to be a dream season for the Lions, who clinched a playoff spot with their victory over San Diego last Saturday.

It would appear likely that things will get even better this Sunday, as the Packers (14-1 overall; 10-5 ATS) have nothing left to do but prepare to defend their title in the postseason.

The Lions (10-5 overall; 7-6-2 ATS) have now won 3 straight and they are 5-2 on the road this season (3-2-2 ATS). Detroit had gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games before they blew out the Chargers 38-10 last Saturday.

The Packers rebounded from their first loss in over a year, cruising past the Bears, 35-21, on Sunday night. They are just 3-3 ATS in their last 6. The Packers no longer have a perfect record, but they are still 7-0 at home this season (6-1 ATS) and they’ve won 12 straight at Lambeau Field going back to last season.

In week 12, the Packers spoiled Detroit’s Thanksgiving with a 27-15 victory at Ford Field. The Packers have won 10 of 11 in this series and they’ve won 20 straight against Detroit at home.

The Packers have wrapped up the #1 seed in the NFC and the NFL’s best record. This is their 3rd straight season with 10 or more wins and their 4th in the last 5 years. They are in the playoffs for a 3rd straight year and the 4th time in the last 5 years. Amazingly, this is their first ever 14-win season and they are trying for their first 1-loss season since Vince Lombardi’s 1962 squad.

However, the Packers would be foolish to risk playing their starters for the entire game. They don’t want to get rusty, and they have the week off next week, but it’s just too dangerous to have Aaron Rodgers and company play the entire game (especially against Detroit). You can bet that the Green Bay players who are less than 100% will be held out of this one entirely.

The Lions actually have a lot to play for this weekend. They’ve already accomplished a lot this season, snapping the streak of 10 straight losing seasons, and posting only the 2nd season with less than 10 losses since 2000. This is their first winning season since 2000 and their first playoff appearance since 1999. It’s their first season with 10 or more wins since 1995. They’ll be trying for their best record since they went 12-4 in 1991 and just their third season with 11 or more wins since 1931.

Most importantly, the Lions can clinch the #5 seed in the NFC with a win on Sunday. A loss by Atlanta would also clinch the #5 seed for Detroit. If the Lions lose and the Falcons win, Detroit would be the #6 seed, meaning they would have to play on the road against the Saints or the Niners next week.

Tackle Chad Clifton (hamstring) and RB James Starks (ankle) are questionable for Green Bay. WR Greg Jennings is out again, trying to get his knee ready for the playoffs.



San Francisco (-10.5) @ St. Louis

Pick: Niners cover

Comments: Many intelligent football people no doubt predicted this would be a matchup of the NFC West division winner and the team in last place in the NFC West. Most folks didn’t figure it would be the Niners atop the division and the Rams in the cellar. Even fewer people would have predicted San Francisco would enter the game with 10 more wins than St. Louis.

The Niners (12-3 overall; 12-2-1 ATS) have won their last 2 games (2-0 ATS) and 3 of their last 4 (3-1 ATS). They are an impressive 5-2 on the road (5-2 ATS).

The Lams are at the other end of the spectrum. This has been nothing short of a disastrous season for the Rams (2-13 overall; 2-12-1 ATS), who have lost 6 straight (0-5-1 ATS) and are just 1-6 at home this season (1-5-1 ATS).

The Niners spanked the Rams 26-0 at home in week 13 and they’ve won 6 of 7 in this series. They lost against the Rams on the road last year but they’ve still won 4 of the last 6 meetings in St. Louis.

The Niners have been the most surprising team in the league this season, posting their first winning season since 2002, and getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They’ve already clinched their first division title since 2002 and their first season with 12 or more wins since 2001. They’ll be trying for their first 13-win season since 1997.

But the Niners have something more important to play for this weekend. They can clinch the #2 seed in the NFC and a first round bye with a win this Sunday. If they somehow lose to the lowly Rams, the Niners could still clinch the #2 seed if the Saints fall to the Panthers. If San Fran loses to the Rams and the Saints win, the Niners will be the #3 seed.

The Rams (again) are at the other end of the spectrum. They’ve already clinched a 5th consecutive losing season; their 8th straight non-winning season; and their 4th season with 13 or more losses in the last 5 years. If they lose this Sunday they will have lost 14 or more games for an unfathomable 3rd time in the last 4 years.

But they also have something more important to play for (or not play for?) this weekend. They need a loss in this game and a win by the Colts to clinch the #1 pick in next year’s draft. A win by the Rams or a loss by the Colts would clinch the #1 pick for Indy.

LB Patrick Willis (hamstring) has missed the last 3 games for San Fran and is questionable this week. WR Ted Ginn (ankle) missed last week and is questionable for Sunday.

For the Rams, QB Sam Bradford (ankle) has missed the last 2. He’s listed as doubtful for this week but it would be strange if the Rams played him. Another St. Louis QB, AJ Feeley, has missed the last 3 with a thumb injury and is questionable this week. It will most likely be Kellen Clemens under center for St. Louis this weekend. He won’t have WR Austin Pettis to throw to, as the rookie has been suspended for violating the league’s substance policy.


Indianapolis (+4) @ Jacksonville

Pick: Jags win but Colts beat the spread

Comments: A month ago, who would have thought there would be anything interesting about this matchup other than watching the Colts finish 0-16?

Indianapolis (2-13 overall; 5-9 ATS) has come out of nowhere to knock off the Titans and the Texans in the last 2 weeks. They’ve won 4 straight ATS. However, they are still 0-7 on the road this season (3-4 ATS).

The Jags (4-11 overall; 6-8-1 ATS) have lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 6, though they have won 2 of 3 ATS.

The Jags won 17-3 at Indy in week 10. They’ve won 2 of the last 3 in this series, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 against the Colts at home.

I don’t really understand this spread, as the Colts have played better recently, and Jacksonville isn’t exactly a hostile place to play. I have to wonder if Vegas is thinking that the Colts will be making a conscious effort not to pull this game out.

A few weeks ago it looked like a near certainty that the Colts would end up with the #1 pick in next year’s draft. They might still end up with that coveted pick but it’s nowhere near a sure thing. If they lose this Sunday they would clinch the #1 pick. If they end the year with a 3rd straight win, they could still claim the #1 pick if the Rams beat the Niners, but that doesn’t seem likely. If the Colts win and the Rams lose, the #1 pick will go to St. Louis.

This has been a horrendous season for Indy. They saw their streaks of 9 straight playoff appearances and 9 straight seasons with 10 or more wins die. This is their first losing season since 2001 and their first season with 13 or more losses since 1998. A loss on Sunday would give the Colts 14 losses in a season for the 1st time since 1991 when they went 1-15.

At least the Colts have some hope, with a great fan base, the possible comeback of Peyton Manning, and the possible #1 pick. The Jags have little hope and few fans. This is their 4th straight non-winning season and their 3rd losing season in the last 4 years. They need a win to avoid losing 12 games in a season for the first time since they went 4-12 in their inaugural season of 1995.

For the Colts, TE Dallas Clark (neck) missed last week and is questionable for this one.


Buffalo (+11.5) @ New England

Pick: Patriots win but Bills beat the spread

Comments: There was a point this season where it looked like this game might mean a lot for both teams. The Bills were the feel good story of the first half of the season and the Patriots looked rather shaky at the midway point. But in the end it’s the same old story. The Bills faded and then plummeted and the Patriots have rolled.

The Pats (12-3 overall; 8-7 ATS) have won 7 straight and they are 6-1 at home this season (3-4 ATS), though they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

The Bills and their fans have gone through another tragic skid after a promising start. At least last week they were able to take out some anger on the team that had taken over for them as the “feel good” story, the Denver Broncos, whipping them 40-14 to snap a 7-game slide. They are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8. They’ve lost 6 in a row on the road.

In week 3, the Bills pulled off one of the shockers of the season, coming from behind to beat the Patriots 34-31 at home. The victory snapped a 15-game losing streak against New England. They’ve still lost their last 10 games against the Pats on the road.

The Bills will again be playing for pride this week. This is their 7th straight losing season and their 11th non-winning season in the last 12 years. They need a win to avoid a third straight season with 10 or more losses.

The Patriots are on the opposite end of things. This is their 11th straight winning season and they are in the postseason for the 8th time in 9 years. They have now won 10 or more games in 8 consecutive seasons and this is their 6th season with 12 or more wins in the last 9 years.

They’ve already clinched the division and they need a win this Sunday to wrap up the #1 seed in the AFC. If they do fall to the Bills they could still claim the #1 seed if the Ravens and Steelers both lose. That doesn’t seem likely, so the Pats need this game. If the Patriots lose and either the Ravens or Steelers (or both) win, the Pats will be the #2 seed.

For New England, LB Brandon Spikes (knee) and Safety Patrick Chung (foot) have both missed the last 7 games and they are each listed as questionable this week. Tackle Todd Light (leg) missed last week and is questionable for this one. Guard Logan Mankins (knee) is out.


Tennessee (-3) @ Houston

Pick: Titans cover

Comments: I really don’t know what to think about these two teams. The Texans “should” be 12-3 at this point, with a chance at a 13-3 season and the #1 seed in the AFC. Or at least 2 weeks ago it looked like they had a much better than 50% chance of finishing 13-3.

Instead, the Texans (10-5 overall; 9-4-1 ATS) have suffered startling losses in back to back weeks (0-2 ATS). First they were beaten soundly by the Panthers at home. Then last week they lost to the Colts in Indy on Thursday night. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. I mean, we were all surprised when the Texans continued to win despite injuries to their top players, so maybe things are just evening out.

Whatever happened, it now appears that while the Texans are legit on defense, their offense could end up holding them back. Who could have foreseen that scenario?

As for the Titans (8-7 overall; 7-8 ATS), I’m pretty sure they are a mediocre team, but I might have to accept them as a playoff team, because they are certainly still alive. I’m not sure they deserve to be in the playoffs but they may wind up getting in.

They rebounded last week (barely) from their shocking loss at Indy, beating Jacksonville 23-17 at home to snap a 2-game skid. They have now lost 3 in a row ATS.

In week 7, there seemed to be a lot more separation between these two teams than there is now. That week, the Texans went to Tennessee and slaughtered the Titans, 41-7. These teams have split their season series in each of the previous 3 years. The Texans won 20-0 at home last year.

The Texans have already accomplished a lot this year, and the fact that they’ve been able to do so much in the face of all of the adversity has made it even more impressive. This is their first ever season with 10 or more wins.

They’ve already clinched the division and their first ever trip to the playoffs. They are now locked into the #3 seed in the AFC. All they can really do this week is try to finish off the year strong and get that winning taste in their mouths again as they head into their first ever playoff appearance.

The Titans have more at stake. They are trying to finish the season with a winning record at 9-7 and trying to avoid a 3rd straight non-winning season. More importantly, they are currently 3rd in line for the final WC spot in the AFC.

There are a few different ways that the Titans could sneak into the playoffs, but every scenario has two common elements: the Titans have to win this Sunday and the Bengals have to lose. If those two things happen and the Jets win, the Titans would need Oakland or Denver (or both) to lose. If the Titans win and the Bengals and Jets both lose, Tennessee would need Oakland and Denver to win. If one of these scenarios unfolds the Titans will clinch the #6 seed. If they lose or the Bengals win, the Titans will be eliminated.

Houston WR Andre Johnson is still trying to comeback from hamstring problems that have ruined his season. He’s listed as questionable for this week, but it would be fairly surprising if he played.


Chicago (-1) @ Minnesota

Pick: Bears cover

Comments: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team have its season destroyed by injuries quite like the Bears this year. The Bears (7-8 overall; 7-8 ATS) were clearly one of the better teams in the NFC and were a lock for the playoffs. Then they lost QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, and WR Johnny Knox to injuries. They’ve lost 5 straight (1-4 ATS) since the injury to Cutler. They have lost their last 3 on the road.

Vikings fans don’t usually feel pity for Bears fans and they’d be even less likely to this week, as they saw franchise player Adrian Peterson blow out his knee in a meaningless game last Sunday. Minnesota (3-12 overall; 6-7-2 ATS) also lost QB Christian Ponder to injury during last week’s game, yet they somehow managed to win at Washington, 33-26, to snap a 6-game losing streak.

Outside of seeing the losing skid end, Minnesota’s prize was to be eliminated from contention for the #1 pick in next year’s draft. The Vikings have won 2 of their last 3 ATS. They have lost their last 4 home games.

In week 6, the Bears trounced Minnesota at home, 39-10, for their 4th straight win in the series. They won at Minnesota last year, 40-14, for just their 2nd win in their last 9 tries at the Metrodome.

The Bears went from Super Bowl contender to being eliminated from the playoff chase in a little over a month. This week they’ll merely be trying to get to 8-8. If they do, it will actually mark just the 2nd time in 16 years that they have posted back-to-back non-losing seasons.

The Vikings have now had back-to-back losing seasons. This will be their 5th losing season in the last 11 years and their first season with 12 or more losses since 1984. This Sunday they will be trying to avoid tying the franchise worst 3-13 record of that 1984 team.

Ponder is questionable with a concussion this week. It seems likely that Joe Webb will lead the Vikes against Josh McCown’s Bears. G Steve Hutchinson has been placed on IR (concussion) for Minnesota. For the Bears, RB Marion Barber (calf) missed last week and he’s questionable for Sunday.


Sunday’s Late Games


Tampa Bay (+12) @ Atlanta

Pick: Falcons win but Bucs beat the spread

Comments: Well, that certainly was a painful Monday night for Falcons fans. Didn’t give us much hope that our boys can make any noise in the playoffs. Making matters worse, the Birds had to put a pair of key defensive cogs on IR this week (LB Mike Peterson and DB Kelvin Hayden).

Look, I’m a Falcons fan, so I ain’t complaining about winning records and playoff appearances. I’m just saying that it would be foolish to have any serious hopes of winning the Super Bowl this year. Hell, it would be a major surprise if we won a playoff game this year. But there’s still work to be done before we get to that discussion.

The Falcons (9-6 overall; 6-8-1 ATS) got toyed with on national television by the Saints on MNF, losing 16-45 down in New Orleans. The Birds knew they were in the playoffs prior to the game but it was still a big matchup and they failed miserably. The loss killed their slim hopes of defending their NFC South division title.

As bad as us Falcons fans were feeling on Tuesday morning, can you imagine what Tampa Bay Bucs fans are feeling like at the moment? And make no mistake: there are die hard Tampa fans. There are fanatical fans of every team, it’s only the quantity that varies, not the quality.

Anyway, the Buccaneers have gone from fluky 10-win team to complete dumpster fire. Their head coach had his last supper like 3 weeks ago and now he’s clinging to a conviction never to “fire himself” as a source of motivation to get him through the remainder of the schedule.

Tampa (4-11 overall; 4-11 ATS) has now lost 9 consecutive games. They have lost 5 straight and 8 of their last 9 ATS. They’ve been beaten by at least 16 points in each of their last 4 games. They’ve lost 6 straight on the road (1-5 ATS).

It’s hard to believe that the Falcons lost to these Bucs in Tampa back in week 3, losing 16-13. That snapped Atlanta’s 5-game winning streak in this series. The Falcons have still won the last 3 meetings at the Georgia Dome.

The Bucs don’t have a lot to play for this week. I would say that they’ll be playing for pride, but I’m not sure that applies in this case. This is their 5th losing season in the last 9 years and it’s the 4th time in the last 8 years that they’ve had 11 or more losses. If they lose on Sunday it will be the 3rd time in the last 6 years that they’ve lost 12 or more games in a season.

I mentioned earlier that as a Falcons fan I wasn’t complaining about winning records and playoff appearances. I meant it. Before Mike Smith arrived prior to the 2008 season, the Falcons had never recorded winning seasons in back-to-back years. The Falcons have now posted winning records in 4 consecutive seasons. This is the first time in team history that the Falcons have made the playoffs in consecutive seasons. It is Atlanta’s 3rd playoff appearance in the last 4 years.

This Sunday, the Falcons will be trying to reach double digit wins in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history. It would be the 3rd season with 10 or more wins in the last 4 years for Atlanta.

The worst part about last Monday night’s loss to the Saints, was that it greatly increased the chances that we’ll be right back in the Superdome during the opening weekend of the playoffs. The Falcons now need some help to move out of the #6 spot in the NFC.

The Falcons need a win this Sunday and a loss by Detroit against the Packers in order to clinch the #5 seed and get to play the NFC East division winner during the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. If the Falcons lose or the Lions win, Atlanta will be stuck as the #6 seed and will have to go to New Orleans or San Francisco the next week.

Interestingly, the Falcons will know if they have a chance at the #5 seed by the time their game kicks off this Sunday, as their game was flexed to 4:15. If Detroit is able to take care of business against Green Bay’s backups, we’ll see if the Falcons rest their starters for most or all of the game. If they do, I still think they have a great chance of beating Tampa Bay.


Pittsburgh (-7.5) @ Cleveland

Pick: Steelers cover

Comments: I’m getting bored with this one. Doesn’t it seem like these two teams play each other 8 times a year? And doesn’t it seem like Pittsburgh always wins?

It could be tougher for the Steelers (11-4 overall; 7-8 ATS) this week, as they might not have QB Ben Roethlisberger back, and if he does play, he will no doubt be less than 100%.

They should still be able to take care of business against the Browns (4-11 overall; 6-7-2 ATS) without Big Ben but it might be a little closer. I had to search to find a line on this game, as Roethlisberger’s status is still very much unknown.

The Steelers won 27-0 at St. Louis without Roethlisberger last week but they are just 3-4 in their last 7 ATS. They are 4-3 on the road this season but just 2-5 ATS on the road.

The Brownies have lost 5 straight and 8 of 9. However, they have won 3 straight and 5 of 6 ATS. The Browns are 3-4 at home this season and just 1-4-2 ATS at home.

It was during the Steelers-Browns game in Pittsburgh on Thursday night in week 14 that Big Ben originally suffered the severe high ankle sprain. He amazed everyone by coming back out after halftime and leading the Steelers to a 14-3 win, but he’s gotten worse since that night.

That victory was Pittsburgh’s 3rd straight over the Browns and they have now won 15 of the last 16 meetings. They’ve won 9 of the last 10 in Cleveland, including a 41-9 asswhooping in last year’s season finale.

This is Pittsburgh’s 5th straight winning season and their 3rd season of 11 or more wins in the last 5 years. They are headed to the playoffs for the 4th time in the last 5 years.

The reason that they might not just sit Big Ben and try and get him healthy for the playoffs is that they still have a pretty good chance of winning their division and dramatically improving their playoff position. They need a win and a Baltimore loss to the Bengals to win the AFC North division title and clinch the #2 seed in the AFC.

Obviously, that would give them a first round bye and even more time for Ben (and several other key players) to get healthy. The trouble is that they were swept by the Ravens this season, so they’ll need help from Cincinnati. If the Steelers lose or the Ravens win (or both), Pittsburgh will be the #5 seed.

There is one other scenario that needs to be mentioned. If the Steelers beat Cleveland, the Ravens lose to the Bengals, and the Patriots somehow fall to the Bills, Pittsburgh would clinch the division title, the first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs as the AFC’s #1 seed.

The Browns will basically be playing for pride this week. This sort of matchup is the reason that the NFL decided to make it all within the division in week 17. The Browns’ biggest motivation this week will be to beat their longtime enemies, who have been doing almost all of the beating in this rivalry over the last 40 years.

This is Cleveland’s 4th straight losing season and their 8th in the last 9 years. It’s also their 4th straight season with double digit losses and their 8th in the last 9 years. In fact, this is Cleveland’s 4th straight season with 11 or more losses. They will be trying to avoid losing 12 or more games in a season for the 4th time in the last 8 years.

These two teams are banged up. For Pittsburgh, LB LaMarr Woodley (hamstring) and center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) have missed the last 2 and are questionable for this one. Pouncey’s backup, Doug Legursky, is doubtful this week with a bum shoulder. Big Ben missed last week’s game and is questionable at the moment. WR Emmanuel Sanders has missed the last 3 with a foot injury and he is questionable. RB Mewelde Moore missed the last game and is doubtful this week due to a knee injury.

QB Colt McCoy (concussion) is still listed as questionable for the Browns but it seems highly unlikely that he’ll play. He’s missed 2 straight since James Harrison knocked him out during the same game that Big Ben went down. RB Montario Hardesty has also missed the last 2 with a calf problem. He’s questionable. It could be a Charlie Batch vs. Seneca Wallace QB matchup this week, but you can never count out Big Ben.


Baltimore (-1.5) @ Cincinnati

Pick: Ravens cover

Comments: This is a big game for both teams. The Bengals are trying to get into the playoffs (a rare feat for that franchise). The Ravens are in the playoffs but they are trying not to have to play every game on the road for once.

Cincinnati (9-6 overall; 8-5-2 ATS) has been near the bottom of the league in attendance this season and apparently they were even having some trouble getting fans to pack the house for this one. That surprises me. The fans in Cincinnati love football and it’s not like winning seasons and playoff appearances grow on trees around those parts.

My guess is that they just haven’t bought into this team because they have clearly been a level or 2 below the Ravens and Steelers (and because they are the Bungles). The Bengals are 0-3 against the Steelers and Ravens this season and they’ve lost their last 6 against the “big two” of the AFC North (if you will).

However, Cinci has won their last 2 games and they now control their own destiny in the playoff hunt. They hung on to beat a feisty Arizona team at home last week, 23-17. Prior to that game the Bengals had been just 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6.

The Jets have allowed the Bengals to take control in the race for the final AFC wildcard spot but it won’t be easy. The Ravens (11-4 overall; 7-7-1 ATS) are also playing for something this week. Baltimore barely managed to beat Cleveland at home last week, 20-14, and they have now won 5 of their last 6. On the other hand, the Ravens have lost 3 straight ATS.

In week 11, the Ravens got past the Bengals at home, 31-24. They have won the last 2 in this series, but the Bengals have won 2 straight and 5 of the last 6 in Cincinnati.

This is Baltimore’s 4th straight winning season and they are headed to the playoffs for a 4th straight year. They have now won 11 or more games in 3 of the last 4 years and they’ll be shooting for back-to-back 12-win seasons.

All the Ravens need to do is win this Sunday to clinch their first division title since 2003. If the Ravens lose they could still end up winning the division if the Steelers lose because they swept Pittsburgh this season and therefore own the tiebreaker.

So, a win or a Steelers loss clinches the division title and a first round bye for the Ravens. If they win and the Patriots somehow lose to the Bills, the Ravens will clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the Ravens win and the Pats win, or if both the Steelers and Ravens lose, Baltimore will be the #2 seed. If the Ravens lose and the Steelers win, the Ravens will drop to the #5 seed.

I may have made it sound complicated but it’s pretty simple: win and the Ravens get the bye and at least 1 home playoff game.

It could be simple for the Bengals too. They have already clinched their 2nd winning season in the last 3 years. They’ll be trying for their 3rd double digit win season and their 3rd playoff appearance under Marvin Lewis.

They are currently the #6 seed in the AFC. If they can breakthrough and beat the Ravens on Sunday, they will clinch the #6 seed. If they lose, however, it gets much more complicated.

If the Bengals lose, they could still back their way into the playoffs if both the Jets and the Raiders lose or if both the Jets and the Broncos lose (or if all three teams lose). If either of those scenarios played out they would end up as the#6 seed. If not, they would be eliminated.

The Ravens’ place kicker Billy Cundiff missed last week’s game and is questionable with a calf injury this week. WR Anquan Boldin will be out again with that knee injury. Boldin’s health is just one more reason why the Ravens would love that week off.


Kansas City (+3.5) @ Denver

Pick: Chiefs pull off the upset

Comments: As weird as the NFC East has been this season, you’d have to say that the AFC West has been one of the strangest divisions in recent history. From top to bottom, your perception of each team in the division has changed from week to week. All 4 teams have looked dead before coming back to life at least once this season. All 4 teams were still alive for the division title going into last week.

The Chiefs (6-9 overall; 8-7 ATS) would have been the most improbable team to end up winning the division because they’ve been left for dead at least 3 different times. We were very close to having this game be a battle for the division title. A couple of blocked field goals by Richard Seymour and a couple of made field goals by Sebastian Janikowski did the Chiefs in last week, as they lost at home to the Raiders in OT, 13-16.

That final crushing defeat eliminated Kansas City from playoff contention. They are 2-2 in their last 4 games and 3-2 ATS in their last 5. In other words, while they’re hanging tougher than anyone could have expected, it’s not like they’ve been rolling.

Denver was rolling. But Timmy’s special virgin potion has dried up recently. The Broncos (8-7 overall; 7-8 ATS) have dropped 2 in a row and suddenly their playoff hopes are in jeopardy. They have lost 3 in a row ATS. Strangely, the Broncos are only 3-4 at home this season and just 1-6 ATS at home.

Back in week 10, the Broncos eked out a 17-10 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead. These teams have split the season series in each of the previous three seasons, but the Broncos have won 9 of their last 10 at home against KC.

The Chiefs’ loss to Oakland last week clinched their 4th losing season in the last 5 years. They will be trying to avoid losing at least 10 games in a season for the 4th time in the last 5 years.

Early in the season it looked like the Broncos were destined to suffer back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since they strung together 10 straight losing seasons from 1963-1972. They’ve already won enough games to put those fears to rest. However, they need a win this Sunday to finish the season 9-7. That would give them their first winning season since 2006 and their first trip to the playoffs since 2005.

The Broncos can clinch the AFC West division title and the #4 seed with a win this Sunday or a loss by the Raiders. However, if the Broncos lose and the Raiders win, Team Tebow will be left out in the cold.

Veteran safety Brian Dawkins is listed as doubtful, but he will almost certainly miss this game with a lingering neck injury. He missed several games due to the injury and then came back last week, but he re-aggravated it and had to leave the game. One has to wonder if Dawkins’ great career hasn’t finally come to an end.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. The QB matchup for this one? Tim Tebow vs. Kyle Orton. What will prevail? Will it be Kyle Orton’s will and yearning for revenge? Or will it be Tim Tebow’s god? Tune in to find out.!


San Diego (+3) @ Oakland

Pick: Raiders cover

Comments: I mentioned earlier that all 4 AFC West teams were still alive for the division title heading into last week. Because of their history of getting their shit together late and streaking into the playoffs—and because I have felt all along that they had the most talented team in the division—I had started to think that the Chargers (7-8 overall; 5-10 ATS) were going to end up on top.

That theory exploded last week in Detroit, where the Lions trampled the Chargers, 38-10, eliminating San Diego from playoff contention. That loss snapped San Diego’s 3-game winning streak (3-0 ATS). The Chargers are just 2-5 on the road this season (2-5 ATS).

Earlier in the day, the Raiders (8-7 overall; 9-5-1 ATS) had pulled out an OT thriller in Kansas City to stay alive. For Oakland, the win snapped a 3-game slide (0-2-1 ATS). The Raiders are just 1-3 in their last 4 home games (1-2-1 ATS).

The Raiders won in San Diego in week 10, 24-17. Amazingly, after losing 13 straight to the Chargers, the Raiders have now won 3 in a row in this series. They won at home last year, 35-27, to snap a 6-game skid against San Diego at home.

I think it’s fair to wonder whether Norv Turner’s time in San Diego may be coming to a close. The Chargers have now missed the playoffs in back to back seasons and won 9 games or less in 3 of the last 4 years. This week they’ll be trying to avoid their first losing season since 2003.

The Raiders do not control their own destiny and they may end up missing out on the playoffs. However, there is no denying that the Raiders have taken a huge step towards relevancy in the last 2 years. They may only be mediocre but that’s several levels above what they were for most of the past decade.

Whatever happens on Sunday, the Raiders have already clinched back-to-back non-losing seasons after posting 7 consecutive losing seasons prior to that. They need a win this week to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2002. They’ll be hoping to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

A loss this Sunday would eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention. If they win and the Broncos lose, the Raiders will clinch the AFC West division title and the #4 seed.

Depending on what happens during the early games on Sunday, the Raiders could still slide into the playoffs even if Denver wins their game. If the Raiders and Broncos both win, the Raiders could snatch up the #6 seed if Cincinnati and Tennessee both lose earlier in the day or if Cincinnati loses and the Jets win.

So getting the WC is a little more complicated and dicey than getting the division title, but if you look at it, it might be the more likely scenario.

The Raiders should get a big offensive boost this week, as RB Darren McFadden (foot) is probable to play in this one after missing the last 8 games. WR Jacoby Ford (foot) has missed the last 6 and is questionable this week. Safety Michael Huff (hamstring) missed last week and is listed as questionable for this one.


Seattle (+3) @ Arizona

Pick: Cardinals win but Seahawks beat the spread

Comments: This game carries no playoff implications. It will be a battle of a couple of teams who have played much better than expected.

The Seahawks (7-8 overall; 9-5-1 ATS) lost a tight one at home to the Niners last week, 17-19. The loss snapped Seattle’s 3-game win streak (3-0 ATS) and eliminated them from playoff contention. They are still 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Over their last 7 games, the Seahawks have 5 wins, a 2-point loss, and a 6-point loss.

The Cardinals (7-8 overall; 8-7 ATS) came up short in Cincinnati last week, losing 16-23. The loss snapped Arizona’s 4-game win streak and eliminated them from playoff contention. They have now lost back-to-back games ATS. However, they have won 6 of their last 8 games overall, and they have won 4 straight at home (3-1 ATS).

Seattle hung on to beat the Cards 13-10 at home in week 3. The victory was their 3rd straight in the series. Last year they won 36-18 at Arizona to snap a 4-game skid against the Cards on the road.

These two teams will be fighting for 2nd place in the NFC West and trying to finish the year at .500. Strangely, although the Seahawks won a home playoff game last year, they will actually be trying to avoid a 3rd straight losing season. The Cards will be trying to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since they posted 8 straight losing seasons from 1999-2006.

The Cardinals have a couple of key players questionable. LB Paris Lenon has a wrist injury and star CB/return specialist Patrick Peterson is questionable with an “undisclosed” ailment.

By the way, the QB matchup is John Skelton vs. Tarvaris Jackson, and that sounds a whole lot better now than it did a couple of months ago.


Sunday Night’s Game


Dallas (+3) @ New York Giants

Pick: Giants cover

Comments: It’s a pretty good one to cap off the 2011 regular season. Somehow or another the NFC East always seems to come down to the end like this. This is one of those crucial games. Pick a description: do or die; winner take all; win or go home; win and you’re in/lose and you’re out; sudden death; 1-game playoff; elimination game; etc.

Whoever wins, we won’t end up saying they were the team that earned it; we won’t end up saying that they were the team that survived; we’ll say they were the team that just randomly ended up on top of the division.

The Giants (8-7 overall; 7-7-1 ATS) have gone back and forth all season trying to figure out if they are any good or not. The Cowboys (8-7 overall; 5-9-1 ATS) have gone through their usual December tank job.

The G-Men got a big win in the sloppy Big Apple Bowl against the Jets last Saturday. They have won 2 of their last 3 and they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4. Last week’s game was technically a road game, although it took place in their home stadium. Prior to last week they had lost 3straight at home.

New York’s victory rendered Dallas’ game with the Eagles meaningless, so when Tony Romo’s hand got crushed by a pass rusher early on the Cowboys removed him from the game for good. The Boys went on to lose for the 3rd time in their last 4 games. They have now lost 7 of their last 9 ATS.

This game should have been a meaningless season finale. In week 14, the Cowboys had the Giants on the ropes, leading by 2 scores late in the 4th quarter at home. But the Cowboys let Eli Manning shred them. The Cowboys could have put the game away but Tony Romo missed on a deep ball on 3rd and short, giving the Giants a shot. Dallas had a chance to send the game into overtime, but Tom Coughlin wiped Dan Carpenter’s first field goal off the board with a timeout, and then Jason Pierre-Paul blocked the 2nd attempt to finish off the 37-34 victory.

A loss would have buried the Giants. Instead, here they are, and now the Cowboys will have to beat them on the road in order to save their season. New York has won 6 of the last 8 in this series. Dallas beat the Giants 33-20 on the road last year and the G-Men are just 4-4 in their last 8 against the Boys at home.

During the post-Triplets era, it’s remarkable how the Cowboys have managed to ride the edge between mediocrity and greatness. A win on Sunday night will give them their 6th winning season in the last 7 years and their 3rd division title in the last 5 years. Yet they’ve only managed to win 1 playoff game since 1997. They are trying to avoid posting back-to-back non-winning seasons for the first time since they put together 4 such seasons from 1999-2002.

The G-Men have clinched a 7th straight non-losing season and they are looking for their 3rd division title in the last 7 years. They are trying to avoid missing the playoffs for a 3rd straight year.

Both teams clinch the division title and the #4 seed with a win and are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.

Romo’s hand injury looked like it could be bad at first but it doesn’t appear to be much of anything. He’s probable.

The Giants have 3 key players trying to comeback from injuries this week who are all listed as questionable. DE Osi Umenyiora (ankle) has missed the last 4 games; TE Jake Ballard (knee) missed last week; and WR Mario Manningham (knee) also missed last week.