Last Week: Vs. Spread: (8-8); Straight Up: (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread: (98-87-7); Straight Up: (127-65)
Week 13 Review: Well I avoided disaster again last week, this time managing to go .500 ATS. At this point, I’ll take it.
Week 14 Preview: I don’t really like the looks of the spreads this week. As a matter of fact, I fucking hate them. Seriously, I spent a fair amount of time just staring at some of these spreads. There are 5 games with teams favored by at least 9 points. Teams like the Chargers and Lions are touchdown favorites. The Saints and Niners are 2 of the steadiest teams in the league, but they are on the road, facing hot teams, and favored by the 3.5. It’s brutal.
So will we have upsets or chalk? Will we have blowouts this week or will things be closer than expected? Who knows at this point?
One thing I hate is when I get through making my picks and then I go back and start thinking that I’ve picked too many this or too many that. This week after I finished picking the games I realized I was taking 13 favorites against the spread. Doesn’t seem that likely to happen, particularly when there are so many large spreads and 5 of the 16 favorites are road teams. I actually ended up picking one other underdog to cover (but I’ve convinced myself that I had reconsidered independent of the other picks so don’t bring it up). I have to be honest: I’m a little nervous. So maybe this is the week that disaster hits.
Beyond the betting aspect, this is a very interesting week. Several playoff contenders go head to head this week. In addition, several other contenders face important games against either tough or sneaky tough opponents. This could end up being “Separation Sunday” or perhaps “Survival Sunday.”
Thursday Night’s Game
Cleveland (+14) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comments: This one-sided rivalry is still enjoyable because the fans have such genuine disdain for one another. There’s not a whole lot to say about the Browns first season under Pat Shurmur. Not much going on other than the weekly letdown that is Peyton Hillis.
Speaking of Hillis, that Madden Jinx thing just won’t go away. I mean look, we all realize that if there is a connection between being on the cover of Madden and having terrible things happen to you immediately after it’s not really a curse. But there’s something. I don’t know if it’s part coincidence; part people looking for the curse; part the odds of suffering a serious injury at some point catching up to a guy who had stayed healthy up until that part; or what it is. But it’s something.
Anyway, I’ll try to avoid any further tangents the rest of the way. Back to the Browns, they’ve just had a non-descript season. They haven’t been good but they haven’t been truly awful either. There’s just not much going on at all. They are 4-8 overall (3-7-2 ATS) and just 1-4 on the road (2-3 ATS). After going 1-2 in 3 games decided by a total of 8 points from weeks 10-12, the Browns lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week. They may have lost interest at this point.
The Steelers are rolling right along at 9-3 (6-6 ATS). They are 5-1 at home (4-2 ATS). Pittsburgh is 9-1 this season against teams other than the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8.
As everyone knows, the Steelers have dominated this rivalry for decades. In recent years the series has consisted of Pittsburgh blowouts with the occasional close game sprinkled in here and there. Last season the Steelers beat the Browns 28-10 at home and then 41-9 in Cleveland in the season finale. However, it was on a Thursday night in week 14 of the 2009 season that the Steelers went into Cleveland favored by 10.5 points and ended up losing 13-6. That wasn’t the best Steelers team, however. Plus, this time the game is in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers will be without LB LaMarr Woodley who is out with a hamstring injury. WR Emmanuel Sanders is doubtful with a foot problem.
Sunday’s Early Games
Tampa Bay (-1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags pull off the upset
Comments: The 2011 season hasn’t been all that rosy for either of these teams from the Sunshine State. The Bucs are 4-8 overall (4-8 ATS) and are riding a 6 game losing streak (1-5 ATS). The Jags fired head coach Jack Del Rio last week and have lost 3 straight (0-3 ATS) to fall to 3-9 overall on the year (4-7-1 ATS). Tampa is 1-4 on the road (2-3 ATS), while the Jags are just 2-4 at home (2-4 ATS).
The big issue with this game (and the reason that the line has been off all week) is the health of QB Josh Freeman. Tampa’s QB has a shoulder problem that caused him to miss last week’s game against the Panthers (Josh Johnson started in his place). However, Freeman is probable for this Sunday’s game.
After being competitive for most of the season, the Jags lost 38-14 at home against San Diego on Monday Night Football last week. If the players never quit on Jack Del Rio, it doesn’t seem like they’ve even started to play for interim coach Mel Tucker. Tampa should probably be playing for an interim coach too. Raheem Morris has always seemed to be in over his head to me.
New England (-9) @ Washington
Pick: Patriots cover
Comments: The Pats seem to be rolling along, although they are clearly a flawed team. They are 9-3 overall (7-5 ATS) and 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS). They’ve won their last 4 games (3-1 ATS).
Washington seems to be having a season very similar to last year. They are 4-8 overall (5-7 ATS) this year after going 6-10 last season. They lost 5 games by 4 points or less last season and 4 games by double digits. So far this year they’ve lost 2 games by 3 points or less and 4 games by double digits. Last year the Skins started 3-2 and then lost 8 of their last 11. This year the Skins started 3-1 and they’ve since lost 7 of 8 (2-6 ATS).
Washington is 2-4 at home (2-4 ATS). They’ll have to finish the year without the services of LT Trent Williams and TE Fred Davis. They are both suspended for the remainder of the season due to failing drug tests.
The last time these two teams played was in 2007 during the peak of New England’s “Oh, so you think we cheated? Oh, okay, well then we’re gonna score 100 points a game,” phase. The Patriots won that game 52-7. This one should be slightly closer.
Houston (+3) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Texans pull off the upset
Comments: This is a big game for both teams. After years of failing to live up to the “team that takes that next step” hype, the Houston Texans are just refusing to go quietly in spite of a terrible string of injuries. They’ve lost their best defensive player, their starting QB and his backup, and Andre Johnson’s been hurt almost every week as usual. Still, they are 9-3 (8-3-1 ATS) and in good position to finally reach the playoffs if they can keep winning.
The Texans have won 6 straight (5-0-1 ATS) and they’ve won their last 2 games with TJ Yates running the show. They are 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS).
Cincinnati got off to a surprising start but reality has set in recently. They are 7-5 overall (7-4-1 ATS) and 3-2 on the road (2-3 ATS). They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 (0-3-1 ATS), including last week’s 35-7 defeat in Pittsburgh. All 3 of their losses over the last 4 weeks have been to Pittsburgh (twice) or Baltimore.
On one hand, they’ve obviously proven to be less than true contenders for the championship. On the other hand, they may actually still have a solid year if they can take care of business in winnable games.
Andy Dalton has a hip pointer but he’s probable. Houston suffered yet another injury last week, as LB Brian Cushing left the game with a knee injury. He’s questionable for this week. Johnson is a game time decision, having injured his left hamstring again last week.
Kansas City (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comments: Kansas City has been hit with injury after injury this season. They got off to a horrible start, rebounded to get back in it, and then appeared to be heading for the cellar after all as they lost 4 straight games. But then last week they eked out a win over a crippled Bears team as a 9-point dog to snap the skid and get to 5-7 overall (7-5 ATS). They’ve won 2 in a row ATS.
This week they’ll have to go on the road and they’ll have to play against a team with an NFL quarterback. They are 3-3 on the road this season (4-2 ATS).
The Jets are hanging around at 7-5 (5-7 ATS) and they are 5-1 at home (3-3 ATS). They’ve won their last 2 games and they snapped a 3-game losing skid ATS in their victory at Washington last week.
RB Joe McKnight is doubtful this week with an elbow injury. The Chiefs are yet another team with QB problems. Having lost Matt Cassel for the year, they suffered through a few games with Tyler Palko at QB and then signed Kyle Orton. However, Orton left last week’s game with a dislocated finger and he’s questionable for this week. It may be back to Palko.
Minnesota (+7) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions win but Vikings beat the spread
Comments: This is a must win game for the Lions. They are 7-5 overall (6-5-1 ATS) and 3-3 at home (3-3 ATS).They’ve lost 2 straight (0-2 ATS) and 3 of their last 4 (1-3 ATS). However, those 3 losses were to Green Bay, at New Orleans, and at Chicago. Like the Bengals, they are clearly not true contenders for the title, but they could still have what for Detroit fans would be a great year if they can beat lesser opponents (like the Vikes).
Minnesota is just 2-10 overall (4-6-2 ATS) and 1-5 on the road (2-3-1 ATS). They’ve lost 4 straight (0-3-1 ATS) and 6 of their last 7 (2-4-1 ATS).
The big issue in this game is the availability of Adrian Peterson. He’s missed the last two games with a left ankle injury and is questionable for this week. Ndamukong Suh will again be suspended this week for Detroit.
The Lions won at Minnesota in OT in week 3 and last year they won at home in the season finale. That win snapped a 6-game losing skid in the series.
New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Saints cover
Comments: I think we’d all agree that the Saints are clearly the better team here, but the Titans are at home and they have gotten on a roll lately, spurred on by the rejuvenated Chris Johnson. The Saints are rolling as well, having won 4 in a row (4-0 ATS). The Saints are 9-3 overall (8-4 ATS) but just 3-3 on the road (2-4 ATS). Tennessee is now 7-5 overall (7-5 ATS) and 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS). They’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 6. They’ve won 4 straight and 5 of 6 ATS.
Philadelphia (+3) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comments: This is a battle of 4-8 teams; one on the way up and one on the way down. The Eagles are 4-8 ATS, while the Dolphins are 6-5-1 ATS. Philly is just 3-3 on the road (3-3 ATS) but the Dolphins are only 3-3 at home (3-3 ATS). The Eagles have lost 2 straight (0-2 ATS) and 4 of their last 5 (1-4 ATS). Miami has won 4 of their last 5, including last week’s 34-14 drubbing of the Raiders. They’ve won 6 in a row ATS.
Michael Vick has missed the last 3 games with broken ribs but he is listed as probable for this one. CB Dominique Rogers Cromartie has also missed the last 3 games with an ankle injury. WR Jeremy Maclin has likewise missed the last 3 games with hamstring and shoulder problems. Both Maclin and DRC are listed as questionable this week.
Indianapolis (+16.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comments: The Ravens have queefed against some weak teams this year but I don’t think they’re capable of losing this one. The Colts are now 0-12 overall (3-9 ATS) and 0-6 on the road (2-4 ATS). They’ve lost 13 straight going back to last year’s loss to the Jets in the playoffs. They pulled off a ridiculous backdoor cover last week to snap a 7-game skid ATS.
Baltimore is 9-3 overall (7-4-1 ATS) and a perfect 6-0 at home (4-1-1 ATS). They’ve won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6. They’ve won 2 straight ATS.
Ray Lewis has missed the last 3 games with a toe injury and he’s still doubtful for this Sunday.
Atlanta (-3) @ Carolina
Pick: Falcons cover
Comments: As a Falcons fan, this is an absolutely terrifying game. After falling last week to Tyler Yates and the Texans, the Falcons don’t have much room for error. The Dirty Birds are 7-5 overall (4-7-1 ATS) and 3-3 on the road (2-4 ATS). They had won 5 of 6 prior to last week’s 17-10 loss at Houston. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4.
The Panthers have won 2 in a row (2-0 ATS) to get to 4-8 overall on the year (7-5 ATS). They are 2-4 at home (4-2 ATS).
Atlanta beat the Panthers 31-17 at home in week 6. They’ve won 3 straight (3-0 ATS) and 5 of 6 in the series (5-1 ATS).
CB Brent Grimes is out again with a knee injury this week. Longtime nemesis Steve Smith could be primed for a big day.
Sunday’s Late Games
Chicago (+3.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover
Comments: The Bears appear to be finished. As for Denver, who can bet against Tim Tebow at this point?
Chicago is 7-5 overall (6-6 ATS) and 2-3 on the road (2-3 ATS). They’ve lost their last 2 games (0-2 ATS) but the injuries are the main reason that the Bears are in deep trouble. They lost their QB Jay Cutler a few week ago. Backup Caleb Hanie has so far been a disaster. Then last week they lost RB Matt Forte for the foreseeable future with a knee injury.
Denver’s star rookie LB Von Miller missed last week’s game with a thumb injury and he is questionable for this Sunday.
The Broncos are now 7-5 overall (7-5 ATS) but still just 2-3 at home (1-4 ATS). They’ve won an incredible 5 straight games (5-0 ATS) and 6 of their last 7 (6-1 ATS).
San Francisco (-3.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Niners cover
Comments: The Niners have been the best team against the spread this season and they’ve won all of their games against lesser opponents, but this game is in the desert and the Cards are kinda hot.
San Fran is 10-2 overall and an impressive 10-1-1 ATS. Amazingly they are 4-1 on the road (4-1 ATS). They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games, shutting out St. Louis 26-0 last week to get to double digit wins on the year.
The Cards are now 5-7 overall (7-5 ATS) and 3-2 at home (3-2 ATS). They’ve won their last 2 games (2-0 ATS) and 4 of their last 5 (4-1 ATS).
These two teams just played each other in week 11. The Niners won 23-7 at home for their 5th straight win in the series. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Arizona.
WR Braylon Edwards missed last week’s game with a knee injury and is questionable for this week. More importantly, LB Patrick Willis is doubtful with a hamstring problem.
Buffalo (+7) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comments: This is a dangerous one. The Bills are in a full on tailspin. The Chargers showed signs of life last week. Logic says that San Diego wins this one easily at home. But logic isn’t usually a big part of NFL Sundays.
The Bills have lost 5 in a row (1-4 ATS). Their once surprisingly promising season has turned into yet another nightmare. They are 5-7 overall (5-6-1 ATS) and just 1-5 on the road (2-3-1 ATS).
San Diego is also just 5-7 on the season (3-9 ATS) and 3-3 at home (just 1-5 ATS). They had been in a terrible rut going into last week’s Monday night game in Jacksonville, but they whipped the Jags 38-14 to snap the 6 game losing skid and keep a flicker of hope alive. They also snapped a 6-game skid ATS last week.
Oakland (+11) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comments: With Carson Palmer getting into the swing of things, the Raiders looked to be in good shape heading into last week, having won 3 in a row (3-0 ATS). But Oakland suffered a costly 34-14 defeat in Miami that put them in a tie with the Broncos for 1st place in the AFC West. And now they have to play on the road against the best team in football.
The Raiders are 7-5 overall (8-4 ATS) and 4-2 on the road (5-1 ATS). However, the Packers are 12-0 overall (8-4 ATS) and 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS). They’ve now won 18 straight games going back to last season. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games. Recently the Packers haven’t been as good ATS. They are 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games and 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games.
RB Darren McFadden has missed the last 5 games for Oakland with a foot injury and he is doubtful again this week. LB’s Desmond Bishop and AJ Hawk missed last week’s game for the Packers with calf injuries and they are both questionable this week.
Sunday Night’s Game
New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Giants beat the spread
Comments: This is very big game for both teams. The Giants have suddenly lost 4 in a row to fall to 6-6 on the year (5-6-1 ATS). They are 3-3 so far on the road (3-3 ATS). Despite losing to GB last week they did manage to snap a 3-game skid ATS.
Dallas suffered a gut wrenching loss to the Cardinals last week in OT that snapped a 4-game winning streak. They have now lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 ATS. The Cowboys are 7-5 overall (4-7-1 ATS) and a solid 5-1 at home (just 2-4 ATS).
The Boys won 33-20 on the road against the G-Men in week 10 last year to snap a 3-game skid in the series.
DE Osi Umenyiora is out with an ankle injury for the Giants. WR Mario Manningham has missed the last 2 games with a knee injury but he is questionable. For Dallas, WR Austin Miles is probable after missing the last 4 games due to a hamstring injury.
Monday Night’s Game
St. Louis (+5) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comments: Not the best MNF game. The St. Louis Rams are perhaps the most disappointing team in all of football this season. They have lost 3 in a row (0-3 ATS) and are now just 2-10 overall (2-10 ATS) and 1-5 on the road (1-5 ATS).
The Seahawks have been surprisingly decent. They whipped the Eagles last week 31-14 for their 3rd win in their last 4 games. They have won 4 of their last 5 ATS. Seattle is 5-7 overall (7-4-1 ATS) and just 3-3 at home (4-2 ATS).
The Rams have almost no chance if Sam Bradford can’t go this week. He missed last week’s game with an ankle injury and is questionable for this one. Backup AJ Feeley has a small fracture in his right thumb and is also questionable.
These two teams just met in week 11. The Seahawks won easily in St. Louis, 24-7, for their 2nd straight win against the Rams. The Seahawks have won 12 of the last 13 games in this series.
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