Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The Baseball Blog: 2011 Horse Collar Awards Part III (National League Awards)

National League Awards


The Todd Worrell Award

National League Rookie Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Craig Kimbrel (Closer-Atlanta)

Runner-up: Javy Guerra (Closer-Los Angeles)

Third Place: Vance Worley (SP/RP-Philadelphia)

Comments: There were a few good candidates for this one, including Steve Chishek, Kenley Jansen, Cory Luebke, Brandon Beachy, and Josh Collmenter.

Beachy had some excellent numbers. Among NL rookies (min. 120 IP), Beachy was in the top 4 in ERA, WHIP, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA. He was 1st in K’s and K/BB and 2nd in QS. However, he was basically a 5 innings guy and really struggled later in games. He was also prone to making 1 or 2 big mistakes that would cripple promising starts. Beachy also spent time on the DL with an oblique injury.

Luebke, Worley, and Collmenter were all disadvantaged to some extent by the fact that they split time between the rotation and the bullpen.

Among NL rookies (min. 120 IP) Collmenter was in the top 5 in ERA, WHIP, K’s, K/BB, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA. He led all NL rookies with 15 QS.

Luebke was the really interesting case. Pitching in an extreme pitchers park, he had a very solid season that went almost totally unnoticed. Among NL rookies (min. 120 IP), Luebke was 1st in WHIP, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA; 2nd in K’s, K/9, and ERA; and 3rd in K/BB.

Worley might have stolen this award if he had been a starter all season long. In contrast to Luebke, Worley pitched in a band box, yet he still had very good numbers. Among NL rookies (min. 120 IP), Worley was in the top 5 in WHIP, K’s, CG, QS, K/BB, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA. He led all NL rookies (min. 120 IP) in ERA. Despite all of these good starter/reliever candidates, my top 2 guys were both strictly closers.

Guerra came out of nowhere to nail down the Dodgers closer job. Among NL rookie relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Guerra was in the top 6 in ERA, WHIP, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA. Most importantly he was 21 of 23 in save chances (91.3%), finishing 2nd in the NL among rookies in saves and 1st in save percentage (min. 10 saves).

But the easy choice for this award was always Craig Kimbrel. Among NL rookie relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Kimbrel was 1st in ERA and K/BB; 2nd in WHIP, K/9, OBPA, and OPSA; and 3rd in AVGA and SLGA. Kimbrel led all NL rookies in saves with 46; 25 more than Guerra’s 21. He blew 8 saves, finishing with an 85.2% save percentage which wasn’t all that hot, but he was easily the most dominant rookie closer, and simply wore down due to 79 appearances in high pressure situations. He led all NL rookies with a 3.0 WAR.


The Bob Horner Award

National League Rookie Position Player of the Year

Winner: Freddie Freeman (1B-Atlanta)

Runner-up: Danny Espinosa (2B-Washington)

Third Place: Wilson Ramos (C-Washington)

Comments: These were really the only candidates for this one.

Ramos is now best known for being the victim of a kidnapping for ransom plot in his native Venezuela, but he also had a very solid rookie campaign. Among NL rookies (min. 300 PA), Ramos was in the top 6 in TB, EXBH, RC, OBP, SLG, OPS, and RC27. He finished 3rd among NL rookies with 15 dingers and he did all of this as a catcher.

Espinosa was closer to Freddie Freeman than I expected. I mean Freeman was the clear winner, but Espinosa wasn’t as far off as I thought he’d be. Among NL rookies (min. 300 PA), Espinosa was 1st in EXBH; tied 1st in homers (21); 2nd in RC and TB; 3rd in RC27; 4th in OPS and SLG; and 6th in OBP. He had 5 triples and stole 17 bases in 23 attempts. He did this while playing solid defense at second base.

But Freeman was certainly the top guy here. Among NL rookies (min. 300 PA), Freeman was either 1st or 2nd in homers (21), TB, EXBH, RC, RC27, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. He also played very good defense at first base.


The Darryl Strawberry Award

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Craig Kimbrel (Closer-Atlanta)

Runner-up: Freddie Freeman (1B-Atlanta)

Third Place: Javy Guerra (Closer-Los Angeles)

Comments: This is the overall rookie of the year award for the NL (pitchers and position players).

Even though Guerra’s numbers weren’t as dominant as other guys and even though he didn’t have as many appearances or innings as others, he’s my third place guy because he was so effective in the closer role for LA, converting on 21 of 23 tries.

It’s hard to take relievers over position players but Kimbrel had a big impact, making 79 appearances and working 77 innings. He was totally dominant and racked up 25 more saves than the next best rookie in the NL.


The Steve Kline Award

National League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Tyler Clippard (RP-Washington)

Runner-up: Jonny Venters (RP-Atlanta)

Third Place: Sergio Romo (RP-San Francisco)

Comments: This was one of the more difficult awards to figure out because there were so many great candidates. Guys that were worthy of consideration included Eric O’Flaherty, Jason Motte, Sean Marshall, David Hernandez, and Antonio Bastardo.

Hernandez had 11 saves, 23 holds, and just 3 blown saves.

Marshall had 34 holds, 5 saves, and only 4 blown saves.

Motte had 18 holds, 9 saves, only 4 blown saves and was a huge part of the Cards’ success late in the regular season and throughout the postseason. EOF had 32 holds, only 4 blown saves, and led all NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief) in ERA.

Bastardo was the guy that was the hardest to keep out of the top 3. He went 6-1 with 17 holds, 8 saves, and only 1 blown save. Among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Bastardo was in the top 7 in WHIP, K/9, OBPA, and OPSA. He led all NL relievers in AVGA and he stranded 28 of 32 inherited runners.

Eventually I settled on Romo, Venters, and Clippard. All three of these guys had dominant seasons.

Sergio Romo was more of a situational guy and he pitched in an extreme pitchers park but his numbers were too impressive to ignore. He was 3-1 with a save and 27 holds with only 1 blown save. He pitched only 48 innings, but among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief) he was 1st in WHIP, K/BB, and OBPA; 2nd in OPSA; 3rd in ERA and K/9; 6th in AVGA; and 8th in SLGA. He stranded 27 of 33 inherited runners.

The top 2 were very close. Midway through the season I might have picked Jonny Venters as the top reliever in baseball, period. I would never have thought that at the end of the year I wouldn’t even call him the best middle reliever in the NL. Sadly (for us Braves fans), JV simply wore down from overuse and his late season control problems lost this award. This may not sound like a big deal, but trust me, it’s absolutely incredible that he ended up just 20th in WHIP among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), because he was one of the toughest pitchers to hit in all of baseball, starter or reliever.

Despite the late problems, Venters had a superb year. He led all NL relievers with 85 appearances and was tied 2nd with 88 IP. He was 6-2 with 5 saves, 35 holds (2nd in the NL), and only 4 blown saves. He stranded 15 of 20 inherited runners. Among NL relievers (min. 40 IP), JV was 2nd in SLGA; 5th in OPSA; and 7th in ERA and AVGA. Venters was tied with teammate Eric O’Flaherty for 1st among NL relievers in WAR (3.7).

In the end, as great as JV was, Tyler Clippard was a bit better. Clippard made 72 appearances, leading NL relievers with 88.1 IP. He was 3-0 with 38 holds. Clippard did blow 7 saves but among NL relievers (min. 40 IP) he was in the top 5 in ERA, WHIP, AVGA, and OBPA. And he was in the top 10 in K/BB, K/9, and OPSA. He was just behind Venters with a 3.4 WAR but he was ahead of Jonny in Win Probability Added (WPA).

Clippard had a 5.2 WPA; the best among NL pitchers (Venters was 2nd at 4.6). There are a number of other complicated SABR stats concerning situation runs saved and wins saved, and while JV is near the top in all of them, Clippard is above Venters in almost all of them.


The Randall K Myers Award

National League Rolaids Relief (Top Closer)

Winner: John Axford (Closer-Milwaukee)

Runner-up: JJ Putz (Closer-Arizona)

Third Place: Craig Kimbrel (Closer-Atlanta)

Comments: This award is for the top closer in the NL.

This was a very tough one to decide. There were a number of candidates. Some guys had dominant numbers. Other guys were excellent in save situations but pitched fewer innings or had only solid numbers otherwise.

Heath Bell had 43 saves but he also blew 5 saves and had rather average numbers, especially considering that he pitched in San Diego.

Drew Storen was also 43 of 48 in save tries and had better numbers than Bell but still not that dominant.

Joel Hanrahan was 40 of 44 in save tries and was in the top 10 among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief) in ERA, SLGA, and OPSA.

Ryan Madson was 32 of 34 in save tries for a 94.1% save percentage that was 2nd best in the NL. But Madson pitched only 60.2 innings in 62 appearances and wasn’t as dominant as some of the other closers.

The top 3 were all dominant. Some might be surprised that I only have Craig Kimbrel third, but again, save percentage is very important to me. Craig Kimbrel was incredibly dominant for much of the season. However, he blew 8 of 54 save tries. That’s quite a few. And trust me, they were costly and painful.

Putz also had great numbers and saved 45 out of 49 (89.8%) for the 3rd best save percentage in the NL. Putz was also in the top 6 among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief) in WHIP, K/BB, and OBPA.

But for me, John Axford was clearly the top guy. He pitched 73.2 IP over 74 appearances and finished in the top 12 among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief) in ERA, K/9, SLGA, and OPSA. But most importantly, he was 46 of 48 in save chances. He was 1st in the NL in save percentage at 95.8% and tied for 1st in saves. That basically settles it.


The Mike Marshall Award

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: Tyler Clippard (RP-Washington)

Runner-up: Jonny Venters (RP-Atlanta)

Third Place: John Axford (Closer-Milwaukee)

Comments: In contrast to the Rolaids Relief award, this award is for the top reliever in the NL, closer or otherwise.

That’s what made this one tough. While I am totally onboard with the theory that saves as a counting stat is overrated, I still value save percentage.

In the end I decided that Venters and Clippard were simply too good to be placed below any other reliever in the NL this season. At that point it became easy for me because Axford was certainly the top closer. He pitched 73.1 innings in 74 games, striking out 86 and going 2-2 with 46 saves in 48 tries. The Ax Man posted a 1.95 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He was 12th in the NL among relievers (min. 40 IP relief) in SLGA and 11th in OPSA. He was 6th in the NL among relievers in WAR at 2.7 and 5th among all NL pitchers in WPA at 4.2.

Jonny Venters pitched 88 innings in 85 appearances, striking out 96 and going 6-2 with 5 saves, 35 holds, and only 4 blown saves. He posted a 1.84 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Venters was 2nd in SLGA; 5th in OPSA; and 7th in AVGA. He stranded 15 of 20 inherited runners. JV was tied for 1st among NL relievers with a 3.7 WAR. He was 2nd among all NL pitchers with a 4.6 WPA and was 10th in Adjusted Pitching Wins (APW).

Clippard threw 88.1 innings over 72 games, fanning 104 and going 3-0 with 38 holds and 7 blown saves. He posted a 1.83 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Among NL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Clippard was 3rd in OBPA; 5th in AVGA; and 9th in K/BB, K/9, and OPSA. He stranded 36 of 46 inherited runners and was 3rd in the NL among relievers with a 3.4 WAR. Clippard led all NL pitchers with a 5.2 WPA and was 9th in APW.


The Doc Gooden Award

National League Starting Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Clayton Kershaw (SP-Los Angeles)

Runner-up: (tie) Roy Halladay (SP-Philadelphia)/Cliff Lee (SP-Philadelphia)

Comments: It wasn’t too difficult for me to figure out the winner of this award but deciding runner-up and third place was a task. It wasn’t that there were a lot of candidates. Some people might bring up Ian Kennedy. As flawed as the Win-Loss stat for pitchers is, Kennedy’s 21-4 record is still impressive, and he had a great year pitching in a strong hitter’s park. But Kennedy didn’t have the kind of dominant year that the top 4 NL starters had.

The problem for me was that 3 of the top 4 NL starters had very similar numbers. To add to the confusion, they all pitched for the same team. Without a doubt, if Clayton Kershaw didn’t exist, the Philadelphia Phillies would have had all 3 spots.

Cole Hamels had an excellent season. While he didn’t finish 1st in any of the major statistic categories, Hamels was in the top 10 in all of them. Among qualified NL pitchers, Hamels was 2nd in WHIP, AVGA, OBPA, and H/9; 3rd in OPSA; 4th in QS%, BB/9, and Adjusted ERA; 5th in K/BB, SLGA, and WAR; tied for 5th in CG and QS; 6th in ERA; tied 9th in IP; and 10th in K’s. It’s tough to leave Hamels out but the truth is he just wasn’t quite as good as the top 3.

Amazingly, 2 of those 3 were his rotation mates. Lee and Halladay were impossible to separate for me. They were right next to each other in many of the key pitching stats. If they were a bit lower in one category they would be at the top in another.

Halladay led the NL in CG with 8. He was 2nd in IP; tied 2nd in QS and QS%; tied 3rd in K’s; and tied 6th in shutouts. Among qualified NL pitchers, Halladay was 1st in K/BB, WAR, BB/9, and Adjusted ERA; 2nd in ERA, SLGA, and OPSA; 4th in WHIP and OBPA; 11th in K/9; and 12th in AVGA.

Cliff Lee led the NL with 6 shutouts and was 2nd with 6 CG. He was 2nd in the NL in K’s; tied for 2nd in QS and QS%; and 4th in IP. Among qualified NL pitchers, Lee was 2nd in K/BB and BB/9; 3rd in WHIP, ERA, OBPA, WAR, and Adjusted ERA; 4th in K/9; 5th in OPSA; and 6th in AVGA, SLGA, and H/9.

As great as Doc and Lee were, I had to go with Kershaw, despite the fact that Kershaw pitched in a great pitchers park while the Philly boys pitched in a band box. It’s interesting that people have elevated Justin Verlander to god status for winning the triple crown of pitching and having a huge impact on his team but have ignored Kershaw for doing the exact same thing for the Dodgers.

Maybe it’s hyperbole to say that Kershaw did the exact same thing, as Kershaw ended up tied with Kennedy for 1st in the NL in wins at 21, but again, W-L record is a very flawed stat. And remember that stat about how the Tigers were 25-9 with JV on the mound and 70-58 without him and how that proved that he was certainly the MVP of the world? Well, the Dodgers were 23-10 with Kershaw and 59-69 without him. Let’s compare the winning percentages. Detroit’s Win% with JV (.735) was .188 higher than without him (.547). LA’s Win% with CK (.697) was .236 higher than without him (.461). So I guess that proves that Kershaw was the MVP of the galaxy.

Kershaw led all NL pitchers in K’s. He was 2nd in WAR; tied for 2nd in SHO and QS; 3rd in IP and CG; and 5th in QS%. Among qualified NL pitchers, The Claw was 1st in ERA, WHIP, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, OPSA, and H/9; 2nd in K/9 and Adjusted ERA; and 3rd in K/BB.

The Phillies had one of the best rotations of all-time this year but they didn’t have the top starter in the NL.


The National League Cy Young Award

National League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Clayton Kershaw (SP-Los Angeles)

Runner-up: (tie) Roy Halladay (SP-Philadelphia)/Cliff Lee (SP-Philadelphia)

Comments: Obviously there were no relievers who were going to challenge for the award this season. Kershaw was the top NL pitcher this season. If Kershaw didn’t exist, I would have had a problem because I wouldn’t want to split the award between Lee and Halladay. I would have been forced to make a choice. In that case I think I would have given the award to Doc Halladay by a mite’s hair.

Incidentally, Halladay did lead the NL in many of the more complex SABR pitching stats, such as Adjusted ERA, Adjusted Pitching Wins/Runs, Base-Out Runs/Wins Saved, and Win Probability Added. Kershaw led the NL in Situational Wins Saved. These are all complicated formulas that I’m not going to attempt to breakdown.

To make matters more confusing, while Halladay led the NL in WAR for pitchers, he finished behind Kershaw in overall WAR. I’d like to get to the bottom of this and figure out why Halladay would be ahead of CK and Lee in WAR for pitchers but behind them both in overall WAR, but this awards blog is already several weeks and 55 pages in the making so I’m going to spare myself and all of you readers, real or otherwise.


The Mark McGwire Award

National League Most Valuable Position Player

Winner: Matt Kemp (CF-Los Angeles)

Runner-up: Ryan Braun (LF-Milwaukee)

Third Place: Prince Fielder (1B-Milwaukee)

Comments: There were a number of candidates for this award, including Troy Tulowitzki (who didn’t get much buzz because the Rocks never made their usual run), Jose Reyes (who saw his buzz cool off when he was sidelined and slowed by injuries), and Joey Votto (who seemed almost invisible this season despite putting up numbers relatively similar to last season). The 3 guys I ended up with were all worthy and it was very close.

Prince Fielder had a monster year. He didn’t lead the NL in any of the more important categories but he was in the top 5 in OBP, SLG, OPS, TB, EXBH, homers, RC, RC27, TOB, and Adjusted OPS. Fielder doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of his base running or defense. This may be why he was only tied for 10th in the NL in WAR.

I didn’t consciously decide to have the two Brewers offset each other but unconsciously that may have occurred, though I don’t think it was a big deal because I feel like Ryan Braun was clearly (if slightly) better than Prince Fielder.

I almost went with RB for this award. Unlike Fielder, Braun did lead the NL in SLG, OPS, EXBH, and RC27. He was 2nd in the NL in TB, RC, and WAR and was tied for 2nd in Adjusted OPS. Braun also finished in the top 6 in OBP, homers, TOB, and AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA).

Unlike Fielder, Braun brings plenty to the table in terms of base running and defense. He was tied 7th in the NL with 33 steals against only 6 CS, for an excellent 84.6% success rate. Braun made only 1 error all year in left field, where he tallied 8 assists and had good range. Braun also came through in a major way in the playoffs, leading the Crew to the NLCS.

Like I said, I almost went with Braun for this award. I wanted to, as he seems like a good guy and a great teammate, and I am not fond of Matt Kemp personally. But in the end, I had to give Kemp credit. I had my mind made up that he was an all-talent/no-brain/no-heart/big-ego kind of guy. But this year you didn’t hear much from his mouth, from the mouth of his agent, or from the mouth of the organization about Kemp. He let his play do the talking.

For those who value the more traditional numbers, he led the NL in homers (39) and RBI and was 3rd in AVG (Braun was 2nd), coming close to the batting triple crown. He also led the NL in TB, RC, and Adjusted OPS. He had a WAR of 10.0, best in the NL by 2.3 over Braun at 7.7. He was 2nd in the NL in SLG, OPS, EXBH, and RC27; 3rd in TOB; and 4th in OBP.

He was tied for 2nd in the NL with 40 SB, coming 1 homer from the 40-40 club. He was caught stealing 11 times, but a 78.4% success rate is still okay. He had 4 triples and was 10th in the NL in AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA). Matt Kemp played every day and played a solid center field at spacious Dodgers Stadium (also had 11 assists).

He put up all of those impressive numbers batting in a lineup with absolutely no help and in one of the best pitchers parks in the league. I still question whether or not Kemp will be a superstar for years to come due to some of the things he has done and said in the past. As for this season, he was the best in the NL.


The Jeff Bagwell Award

National League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Matt Kemp (CF-Los Angeles)

Runner-up: Ryan Braun (LF-Milwaukee)

Third Place: Prince Fielder (1B-Milwaukee)

Comments: This is the overall MVP award (pitchers and position players).

I don’t make out a top ten the way that the BBWA does. If I did it’s possible I would have included a starting pitcher or two but I don’t know.

Moving on, people who like to place a high value on whether or not a guy played on a winning team will favor one of the Brewers over Kemp. I’ve already talked about how it’s misguided to place a large emphasis on whether or not a guy’s team is good because that’s largely out of the hands of the individual player. Derek Jeter would certainly have made the Pirates better in the late 90’s/early 2000’s but he wouldn’t have gotten to a WS playing for Pittsburgh. He probably wouldn’t have even made the playoffs.

My point is that singling out whether or not a guy played on a great team as a key factor for who the MVP is doesn’t make any sense if you actually sit down and think it through in your mind. And there’s something that’s been bothering me lately. Media and fans need to shut the fuck up about how awful the Dodgers were this season. People focus so much on stupid off the field shit and they pay so much attention to the words that are coming out of their mouths that they don’t realize what is actually happening in the game.

The Dodgers ended up 82-79, 7th best in the 16-team NL, and only 7.5 behind St. Louis in the WC. They got shorted one game against the Nats, so they could have won 83 games, which would be the same number of wins that the Cardinals had in 2006 when they snuck into the playoffs by winning the shitty NL Central and ended up winning the WS. So quit acting like Kemp was some guy putting up meaningless stats for a 100-loss team. He was a guy putting up huge numbers and carrying his team to a winning record in a year that was full of distractions.


The Bobby Cox Award

National League Manager of the Year

Winner: Tony LaRussa (St. Louis)

Runner-up: Kirk Gibson (Arizona)

Third Place: Ron Roenicke (Milwaukee)

Comments: Again, these are always subjective.

There’s also something strange about handing out awards based on the success of a manager’s team, when it’s actually pretty difficult to determine how much impact a manager has on his team’s win-loss record. But who cares at this point.

Roenicke deserves credit for guiding what would appear to be a fairly immature and unstable group of players into the playoffs.

I was skeptical of the Kirk Gibson hire. I loved Kirk Gibson as a player but I wasn’t sure how his attitude/outlook/style would work as a manager in the modern day MLB. True, he played until 1995, but while that wasn’t too long ago in terms of years, it does seem like a long time ago in terms of MLB. However, Gibson seems to be having the same effect on the players on his team now as he did when he was still playing. He led the Diamondbacks to an improbable NL West title, beating the defending champs along the way.

And then there’s LaRussa. I hate to say it, but this year I finally did have to admit to myself that TLR is the greatest manager of my time (80’s to present). That one hurts. I’ve always hated TLR. I’m obviously a big Bobby Cox guy and my team has budded heads with LaRussa many times over the years. I’ve mocked him for his book signings and I will continue to do that. But LaRussa is the best.

I used to listen to the people who said he over managed because I wanted it to be true. But I really don’t think he does over manage. I think he makes moves that are logical and he does it to give his team the best chance of succeeding. You can make the exact right move and it still might not work out. That’s when people start saying you over managed but it doesn’t make it so.

A few years ago, when people would say that LaRussa was better than Cox, I really enjoyed the fact that TLR hadn’t had any better luck in the postseason than Bobby. He had lost 2 out of 3 WS with the A’s, despite being heavily favored in each one. After that, his teams made the playoffs seven times through 2005 and they had only reached the WS once. That was in 2004 with St. Louis and they ended up getting swept. Thus in 12 postseason appearances his teams had made 4 WS and won 1. That was pretty similar to Bobby’s record up to that point. Bobby had had a few more playoff teams and had made one more WS. But the main thing was the same: only 1 WS, despite numerous playoff and WS appearances.

Then in 2006 the Cards somehow got into the playoffs with 83 wins and ended up winning the whole thing. That hurt my argument but it didn’t exactly bury it. This year TLR buried it. He led a team that was 5.5 feet in the ground on an impossible run to the playoffs and then led them on a run through the postseason that was nearly as impossible. He then retired, going out on top.


The Branch Rickey Award

National League Executive of the Year

Winner: John Mozeliak (St. Louis)

Runner-up: Ruben Amaro (Philadelphia)

Third Place: Doug Melvin (Milwaukee)

Comments: Okay, let’s see…subjective, blah blah blah, largely based on team’s performance, yada-yada-yada, some guys working with much more resources than others, etc, etc.

Melvin gave up a bunch to put together a decent starting pitching staff but I’m not sure they ever would have put together a good starting staff if he hadn’t done it that way. And I don’t think the Brewers would have gotten over the hump and into the postseason without a legit staff. He also did a good job building and reinforcing the bullpen, particularly in dealing for K-Rod during the ASB.

Amaro has more resources than most NL GM’s but that isn’t a guarantee of success (ask fans of the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers). He made the smart move of letting Jayson Werth go and then got Cliff Lee back. Instead of looking outside for help in the pen and at the back of the rotation he used homegrown talent. And then he made the move to bring in Hunter Pence which was huge even if it didn’t translate into another trip to the WS.

But it’s hard to deny Mozeliak. Like Jon Daniels in Texas, Mozeliak is overshadowed, in his case by his famous manager. He also may suffer from having an unusual last name, and if you don’t think that sort of thing matters then you need to pull your head out of your ass (what if The Donald’s grandfather hadn’t changed his name from “Drumpf” to “Trump?”).

Mozeliak’s key offseason maneuver was the low risk/high reward gamble he took on Lance Berkman. Berkman rewarded Mozeliak by having his best season in years and without that move there is no way the Cards make the playoffs.

Then Mozeliak did what many GM’s are afraid to do. He traded away a young and talented player who didn’t fit in. With the trade of Colby Rasmus he was able to improve the rotation, the bench, and the bullpen. Around the same time he acquired Rafael Furcal and Arthur Lee Rhodes.

These moves helped the Cards make their run to the playoffs and helped them make their run in the playoffs, both of which were remarkable.


The Andres “El Gato Grande” Galarraga Award

National League Comeback Player of the Year

Winner: Lance Berkman (RF-St. Louis)

Runner-up: Matt Kemp (CF-Los Angeles)

Third Place: Charlie Morton (SP-Pittsburgh)

Comments: I couldn’t think of too many obvious candidates when I first started trying to figure out this award but there were actually plenty of worthy guys. Some of the guys who just missed the cut included Steven Strasburg, Jason Isringhausen, Pablo Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Todd Helton, and Chipper Jones. Eventually I came up with the top 3.

The Braves traded Charlie Morton to the Pirates for Nate McLouth in the middle of the 2009 season. While McLouth never produced for the Braves, heading into this season it still looked like the Braves had pawned off yet another bust on the hapless Pirates. This may actually still be the case, but there’s much more hope for the opposite now than there was after 2010.

In 2010, Morton was one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. In fact, he was high on the list of the worst players in MLB. Morton made 17 starts, going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA and a 1.732 WHIP over 79.2 innings. He even allowed 12 unearned runs. He gave up 15 homers (1.7 HR/9), hit 7 batters, committed a balk, and uncorked 5 wild pitches. He allowed 12.7 H/9. Morton’s WAR for 2010 was -2.5.

But Morton’s horrid performance as a pitcher wasn’t the only thing killing his team whenever he was in the game in 2010. He went 1 for 26 at the plate (.038) with 1 TB, no EXBH, no RBI, no BB, 18 K, a GDP, and only 2 SH. In the field he was a mess, committing 3 errors for a .857 Fielding PCT. Base runners went 12 for 14 in stolen base attempts off of him (86%). I mean he was gawdawful.

This season he wasn’t great but he was dramatically better than the year before. Morton made 29 starts, going 10-10 with 2 CG, 1 SHO, a 3.83 ERA, and a 1.532 WHIP over 171.2 innings. He brought his H/9 down to 9.8 and allowed only 6 homers, posting an NL best 0.3 HR/9 rate.

He still wasn’t too good at the plate, going only 4 for 50 (.080) but at least that was an improvement. In addition, he had 3 doubles, 2 RBI, and a BB. He struck out 29 times, fanning in 58% of his at bats after striking out in 69.2% of his at bats in 2010. More importantly, he notched 11 SH and even had a pair of sac flies.

Defensively he was much improved, making only 1 error for a .974 Fielding PCT. Base runners stole 16 bases in 22 attempts (73%), another improvement, even if it was a minor one.

Morton’s dramatic comeback can be summed up with WAR. After posting a -2.5 WAR in 2010, his 2011 WAR was 2.4; a +4.9 change from the year before.

Some people might not think of Matt Kemp as a candidate for this award. I do because his 2010 season had convinced me (as I’ve already mentioned) that he just didn’t get it and was destined to be a hugely talented guy that actually ended up not being that good.

Let’s just look at the +/- for his numbers between this year and last. He played in 1 fewer game and had only 21 more PA this season than in 2010. But look at the difference in his numbers: +33 runs; +45 hits; +8 doubles; +11 homers; +37 RBI; +21 SB; -4 CS; -11 K; +.075 AVG; +.089 OBP; +.136 SLG; +.226 OPS; +82 TB. He went from -0.2 defensive WAR in 2010 to 1.0 defensive WAR in 2011. His total WAR rose from 2.3 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2011. That’s a comeback.

But the clear winner was Berkman. Before we look at the numbers, let’s remember what Berkman looked like as a Yankee late in 2010. Age had seemingly caught up with him quickly. His bat looked slow. His body just didn’t look the same. After being traded at the deadline to NYY, Berkman played in 37 games, hitting just .255 with a .707 OPS, 1 homer, and an alarming 6 GDP in 106 AB.

For the year, Berkman played in 122 games for the Astros and Yankees and hit .248/.368/.413/.781 with just 14 homers. It was the 3rd straight year he played exclusively at first base for the Stros and after being traded to the AL he played half the time as a DH. Of course one bad season doesn’t mean a guy is done but he sure didn’t look like a guy who would be a big producing everyday player again.

Berkman looked like a new Puma in 2011. He was healthy and one would have to assume that he paid more attention to his physical condition, as he had gone through a career worst year and was looking for a team to play for going into 2011. In other words, he was motivated.

Berkman hadn’t played an inning in the outfield since 2007 but this year he started 123 games in the outfield for St. Louis. He played in 145 total games, hitting .301/.412/.547/.959 with 23 doubles, 2 triples, 31 homers, 90 runs, 94 RBI, 92 BB against 93 K, and just 3 GDP all season. His WAR rose from 1.2 in 2010 to 5.2 this season (+4.0).

Berkman helped keep the Cardinals afloat while Albert Pujols was on the shelf. In the World Series, Berkman went 11 for 26 to hit .423 with a homer and 5 RBI. He got the hit that tied up game 6 in extra innings after the Rangers had gone up by 2 runs again.

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