Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2011 Bowl Season Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest Game (Straight Up: 1-0; Vs. Spread: 0-1)

Overall (Straight Up: 1-0; Vs. Spread: 0-1; Moneyline Upsets: 0-0)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 101-50; Vs. Spread: 71-77-3)

Overall (Straight Up: 505-175; Vs. Spread: 343-322-8; Moneyline Upsets: 23-18)

Week 15 Review: Well this year the only big game in week 15 was really good. Unfortunately for me, I picked the winner correctly but lost ATS. That leaves a sour taste in my mouth heading into bowl season.

Bowl Season Preview: Despite the disappointing week 15 result, I still have a chance to have a really good year if I can avoid disaster in the bowls (which can be tricky). If I have a really good bowl season I might be able to get over .500 ATS in the biggest games which would make me feel a lot better.

As always, I found the bowl games difficult to predict. Trying to figure out how the coaching situations will play out is always a tough task. There are always injury and eligibility concerns. And it’s never easy to figure out who wants to be there and who will be distracted. To be honest, I’m a little concerned about my picks. I took a lot of underdogs ATS, which would go against the pattern for most of this season.

As for the games themselves, when the matchups were announced I was disgusted. But that’s nothing new. After initial feelings of anger, followed by a general sense of malaise and boredom, I settled into that familiar sense of, “well, it’s college football, and that beats just about everything else.”

I think it’s ridiculous that Boise State and TCU are playing middling (at best) teams from the Pac-12 and the WAC respectively. I will say, I’m not overconfident when it comes to the SEC. The spreads seem to lean towards the SEC as much as ever, but I don’t know if it should be that way.

Most of all I’m annoyed that there will be no satisfactory conclusion to the season in many ways. If LSU wins to finish as the only undefeated team and clearly the team with the most impressive résumé, most will understand that they were simply the top team this year. However, because they won’t play Oklahoma State or Stanford in the final game, there will be those annoying voices who complain.

If Alabama wins, it might actually say more about the SEC’s superiority than anything we’ve seen over the last 6 years, but that will likely be lost among the shouting. People will say (perhaps rightly) that LSU got screwed, having to play Alabama again. People will say (perhaps rightly) that only a rubber match would truly say who the better team was.

And then you will have those annoying voices who will say that since there was no undefeated team, and since neither Bama nor LSU had to play one of the top teams from the other conferences in the final, the system didn’t determine who the top team was.

This is what annoys me the most. Alabama and LSU are the top two teams in the country, and the SEC’s dominance over the last 6 years is what led to them winding up in the final game, but it might have been better for the conference for LSU to play Oklahoma State.

While I’ve had an okay year picking games, I have to say that this has been a disappointing year in terms of my blogs, because I just haven’t been able to offer as much commentary and analysis along with my rankings and picks. Unfortunately, I have to end the year in a fitting manner, with no comments for my bowl game picks. For a variety of reasons, I just haven’t had the time.

I’m obviously getting these in late so it didn’t make much sense for me to do a lot of detailed notes. This is most annoying, because I love analyzing all of the bowls. I can only offer the vague, promise-sounding statement that it is my intent to make up for some of this year’s shortcomings with some solid postseason entries.

The changes in title are the only things that are fun or unique about this year’s bowl picks. And to be honest, most of them are the same or very similar to last year’s titles, though there are several new ones. I don’t have time to go into the titles, so if you are wondering about any of them, please feel free to investigate.

And now, on to the picks.


December 18th


The Po’Poy Bowl

Matchup: Temple (-7) vs. Wyoming

Pick: Wyoming beats the spread


The Blue Bowl

Matchup: Utah State (-1.5) vs. Ohio

Pick: Utah State covers


The Crescent City Bowl

Matchup: Louisiana-Lafayette (+4.5) vs. San Diego State

Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette beats the spread


December 20th


The Hero City Bowl

Matchup: Florida International (-4) vs. Marshall

Pick: Florida International covers


December 21st


The Jack Murphy Bowl

Matchup: Louisiana Tech (+10.5) vs. TCU

Pick: TCU covers


December 22nd


The Legalize Gambling Now Bowl

Matchup: Arizona State (+14) vs. Boise State

Pick: Boise State covers


December 24th


The Bayonet Constitution Bowl

Matchup: Nevada (+6) vs. Southern Mississippi

Pick: Southern Mississippi covers


December 26th


The Sam Cooke Bowl

Matchup: North Carolina (+5) vs. Missouri

Pick: Missouri covers


December 27th


The Motor City Bowl

Matchup: Western Michigan (+2.5) vs. Purdue

Pick: Purdue covers


The Queen City Bowl

Matchup: Louisville (+2.5) vs. North Carolina State

Pick: Louisville pulls off the upset


December 28th


The General George Washington Bowl

Matchup: Toledo (-3) vs. Air Force

Pick: Air Force beats the spread


The Holiday Bowl

Matchup: California (+3) vs. Texas

Pick: California beats the spread


December 29th


The Sunshine Classic Bowl

Matchup: Notre Dame (+3) vs. Florida State

Pick: Florida State covers


The Mess With Texas Bowl

Matchup: Washington (+9) vs. Baylor

Pick: Baylor covers


December 30th


The Oil Bowl

Matchup: Tulsa (+2.5) vs. BYU

Pick: Tulsa pulls off the upset


The Bronx Bowl

Matchup: Rutgers (-1.5) vs. Iowa State

Pick: Iowa State pulls off the upset


The Music City Bowl

Matchup: Wake Forest (+6.5) vs. Mississippi State

Pick: Mississippi State covers


The Copper Bowl

Matchup: Iowa (+13.5) vs. Oklahoma

Pick: Oklahoma covers


December 31st


The Blue Bonnet Bowl

Matchup: Texas A&M (-9.5) vs. Northwestern

Pick: Northwestern beats the spread


The Sun Bowl

Matchup: Utah (+3.5) vs. Georgia Tech

Pick: Utah beats the spread


The Grateful Dead Bowl

Matchup: UCLA (+2.5) vs. Illinois

Pick: UCLA pulls off the upset


The Martin Luther King Jr. Bowl

Matchup: Cincinnati (+3) vs. Vanderbilt

Pick: Cincinnati beats the spread


The Peach Bowl

Matchup: Virginia (+1.5) vs. Auburn

Pick: Auburn covers


January 2nd


The Doak Walker Bowl

Matchup: Penn State (+5.5) vs. Houston

Pick: Houston covers


The Cigar Bowl

Matchup: Michigan State (+3.5) vs. Georgia

Pick: Michigan State beats the spread


The Tangerine Bowl

Matchup: Nebraska (+2.5) vs. South Carolina

Pick: South Carolina covers


The Gator Bowl

Matchup: Florida (-2) vs. Ohio State

Pick: Florida covers


The Keith Jackson Bowl

Matchup: Wisconsin (+6) vs. Oregon

Pick: Wisconsin beats the spread


The Fuck Arizona SB 1070 Bowl

Matchup: Stanford (+3.5) vs. Oklahoma State

Pick: Stanford beats the spread


January 3rd


The Sugar Bowl

Matchup: Michigan (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech

Pick: Michigan covers


January 4th


The Orange Bowl

Matchup: West Virginia (+3.5) vs. Clemson

Pick: Clemson covers


January 6th


The Jurrah Jones Bowl

Matchup: Kansas State (+7.5) vs. Arkansas

Pick: Kansas State beats the spread


January 7th


The Civil Rights Bowl

Matchup: SMU (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh

Pick: Pittsburgh covers


January 8th


The Titties Bowl

Matchup: Arkansas State (-1) vs. Northern Illinois

Pick: Arkansas State covers


January 9th


The Fraudulent National Championship Game

Matchup: Alabama (-1) vs. LSU

Pick: LSU pulls off the upset

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