Tuesday, December 6, 2011

The Baseball Blog: 2011 Horse Collar Awards Part II (American League Awards)

American League Awards


The Gregg W. Olson Award

American League Rookie Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Jeremy Hellickson (SP-Tampa Bay)

Runner-up: Michael Pineda (SP-Seattle)

Third Place: (Tie) Ivan Nova (SP-New York Yankees)/Guillermo Moscoso (SP-Oakland)

Comments: Jordan Walden had 32 saves but he also blew 10 saves.

If you looked at win-loss record you might be swayed towards Nova, who went 16-4 as a rookie. And he did have a good season, especially when you consider that he was pitching half of his games in an extreme hitters park. Nova finished 3rd or 4th among all AL rookie pitchers in most meaningful categories (min. 120 IP).

Moscoso, Pineda, and Hellickson, on the other hand, all pitch in extreme pitchers parks. Moscoso is little known outside of Oakland—and perhaps even littler known inside of Oakland—but among AL rookie pitchers (min. 120 IP) he was 1st in WHIP, OBPA, and OPSA and 2nd in ERA.

Pineda also had a solid rookie year. Among AL rookie pitchers (min. 120 IP) he was 1st in K’s, K/BB, K/9, and SLGA; 2nd in WHIP, QS, QS%, AVGA, OBPA, and OPSA; and 4th in ERA.

But Hellickson had the best year of all. Among AL rookie pitchers (min. 120 IP) he was 1st in ERA, CG, QS, QS%, and AVGA; tied for 1st in SHO; 2nd in K’s; 3rd in WHIP, K/9, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA; and 4th in K/BB. He was also 1st with a 4.2 WAR, suggesting he was the most valuable.


The Marty Cordova Award

American League Rookie Position Player of the Year

Winner: Eric Hosmer (1B-Kansas City)

Runner-up: Mark Trumbo (1B-Anaheim)

Third Place: Jemile Weeks (2B-Oakland)

Comments: Weeks didn’t get as much playing time as Trumbo and Hosmer but he did lead all AL rookies with 8 triples and was tied for 2nd with 22 SB (though he was regrettably caught 11 times). Among AL rookies (min. 300 PA) Weeks was 1st in AVG; 2nd in OBP; and 6th in SLG and OPS. And he did this playing second base for a bad hitting team in a bad park for hitters (though perhaps not as bad for non-power hitters like Weeks).

Trumbo had the most power by far (31 doubles, 1 triple, 29 homers) but other than that he wasn’t that effective. He struck out 120 times against only 25 walks in 573 plate appearances and he ended up with just a .291 OBP.

Hosmer was the best all around, hitting .293 with 19 dingers. Among AL rookies (min. 300 PA) Hosmer was 1st in RC and OPS; 2nd in TB, EXBH, AVG, and RC27; and 3rd in homers, OBP, and SLG.


The Walter William Weiss Award

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Jeremy Hellickson (SP-Tampa Bay)

Runner-up: Michael Pineda (SP-Seattle)

Third Place: Eric Hosmer (1B-Kansas City)

Comments: This is the overall ROY award for the AL (pitchers and position players).

Hosmer had the best season for a position player but I decided to place him behind the top 2 pitchers.

The surprise here might be Pineda. His record wasn’t that great, but to be honest, on a scale of 1-10, win-loss record is like a 0.5 for me. He also pitched in a great place to pitch, but the fact is he was either #1 or #2 among rookies in the AL in almost all meaningful pitching categories.

Hellickson had the best overall season and was the clear winner in my opinion. He went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 2 CG and 1 SHO. Among all qualified AL pitchers he was 8th in ERA and 12th in WAR.


The Jeff Nelson Award

American League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year

Winner: David Robertson (RP-New York Yankees)

Runner-up: Al Alburquerque (RP-Detroit)

Third Place: Koji Uehara (RP-Baltimore/Texas)

Comments: The hardest part about this one was narrowing down the list of candidates, which started at like a dozen. Guys that deserved consideration included Daniel Bard, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Downs, Chris Sale, Jim Johnson, and Alfredo Aceves.

Koji Uehara was nasty for Baltimore and was a big pickup for Texas. Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Uehara was 1st in WHIP, K/BB, and OBPA. He allowed only 4 of 25 inherited runners to score. He pitched 65 innings over 65 appearances, recording 22 holds with only 1 blown save.

Alburquerque only pitched 43 innings but he was extremely tough to hit. Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Al was 1st in K/9, AVGA, SLGA, and OPSA. He was 6-1 with 6 holds and no blown saves. Alburquerque allowed only 3 of 31 inherited runners to score.

Robertson was one of the top relief pitchers in all of baseball this season. He threw 66.2 innings over 70 appearances, going 4-0 while recording 34 holds (tied 1st in AL) and 1 save with only 3 blown saves. Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Robertson was 1st in ERA and 2nd in K/9, SLGA, and OPSA. He led all AL relievers with a 3.9 WAR.


The Tom Henke Award

American League Rolaids Relief (Top Closer)

Winner: Jose Valverde (Closer-Detroit)

Runner-up: Mariano Rivera (Closer-New York Yankees)

Third Place: Jonathan Papelbon (Closer-Boston)

Comments: It seems to me that this award is for closers and that’s why I added the “Top Closer” thing in parentheses.

I hate Papelbon and was tickled to see him blow it for the Red Sox in the end, but overall he had a very good season. He was 31 for 34 in save chances (91.2%), finishing 3rd in the AL in save percentage (min. 10 saves). Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Papelbon finished in the top 8 in WHIP, K/BB, K/9, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA.

The Great Mariano Rivera is the greatest closer of all-time and he had another super year in 2011. He was 2nd in the AL in saves, going 44 for 49 in save chances (89.8%) to finish 5th in the AL in save percentage (min. 10 saves). Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP), Rivera finished in the top 7 in WHIP, ERA, K/BB, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA.

As great as Mo Rivera is he was not the top closer in the AL this season. It’s popular nowadays to rip the save stat and I agree for the most part, but I am one of a seemingly shrinking number of people who feel that there is something different about the final 3 outs. I think finishing off wins is very important. On the other hand, I do understand that saves as a counting statistic is greatly overrated. However, no one can convince me that save percentage isn’t important.

This season Jose Valverde (aka: Eugene Krabs) went 49 for 49 in save tries, leading the AL in saves and save percentage. Krabs’ work isn’t always pretty, and in non-save situations he wasn’t always effective, but when brought in to nail down a win he was perfect. He also led the AL with 75 appearances and was 5th in the AL with 72.1 IP in relief. Among AL relievers (min. 40 IP relief), Valverde was 5th in SLGA; 10th in ERA; and 11th in AVGA and OPSA. He stranded all 6 inherited runners and was 5th among AL relievers with a 2.7 WAR.


The Dennis Eckersley Award

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: Jose Valverde (Closer-Detroit)

Runner-up: David Robertson (RP-New York Yankees)

Third Place: Mariano Rivera (Closer-New York Yankees)

Comments: So this award is different from the Rolaids Relief because this is best reliever, not specifically best closer, which I believe the Rolaids award has become.

I don’t know how many people realize how good Robertson was this year. Mariano Rivera wasn’t the best reliever on his team this year. I know that sounds retarded but Robertson was ridiculous.

Still, Valverde was perfect on 49 save tries. Hard to beat. It may seem that I’m contradicting myself by ranking Robertson ahead of Rivera but behind Valverde. Perhaps I am but I just can’t get beyond 49 for 49 in save chances.


The Roger Clemens Award

American League Starting Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Justin Verlander (SP-Detroit)

Runner-up: Jered Weaver (SP-Anaheim)

Third Place: James Shields (SP-Tampa Bay)

Comments: This was pretty easy. There were some other good candidates: CC Sabathia, Ricky Romero, and especially Dan Haren. But it was all a battle for spots on the podium, as the winner was obvious. And in the end, the 2nd and 3rd place guys were fairly obvious as well.

Shields was a clear 3rd place for me. He was 3rd in the AL in ERA and K’s, but most impressively, he had 11 complete games and 4 shutouts.

Weaver was a solid runner-up once again this season, finishing 2nd in the AL in ERA, WHIP, OBPA, and OPSA.

Of course Justin Verlander was the top AL starter. JV led the AL in ERA, WHIP, K’s, IP, AVGA, OBPA, SLGA, OPSA, WAR (by a mile), H/9, and Adjusted ERA. He was tied 1st in the AL in QS; 3rd in QS% (min. 15 QS), K/BB, and K/9; tied 4th in CG; tied 5th in SHO; and 8th in BB/9. He also won 24 games.


The American League Cy Young Award

American League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Justin Verlander (SP-Detroit)

Runner-up: Jered Weaver (SP-Anaheim)

Third Place: James Shields (SP-Tampa Bay)

Comments: This award has been won by relievers before but those days may be gone. It would take a ridiculously good season by a reliever and a down year by all the starters for me to go that route. The reason for this is obvious: relievers just don’t throw that many innings. Relievers are obviously very valuable but they aren’t usually as valuable as the top starters.

Verlander was just ridiculous this season. He led the AL with an 8.6 WAR, which was 1.7 better than the next best guy at 6.9 (CC Sabathia). Think about this. Not only did JV lead all qualified pitchers in all of the key categories, but among all 166 AL pitchers with at least 40 IP, Verlander was 2nd in OBP; 4th in WHIP; and 5th in OPS. That’s pretty good.


The Albert Jojuan “Joey” Belle Award

American League Most Valuable Position Player

Winner: Jose Bautista (RF-Toronto)

Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera (1B-Detroit)

Third Place: (Tie) Adrian Gonzalez (1B-Boston)/Jacoby Ellsbury (CF-Boston)

Comments: There were a bunch of candidates this year. In addition to the 4 represented here, you also had Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson; Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz; Adrian Beltre and Michael Young; etc.

Adrian Gonzalez delivered in his first year in Boston even if the team eventually melted down. He played his usual excellent defense at first base and finished in the top 7 in the AL in OBP, SLG, OPS, TB, EXBH, RC, RC27, WAR, TOB (times on base), and adjusted OPS. He only hit 27 homers (tied 18th in the AL), but he delivered in run producing/clutch situations, finishing 8th in the AL in AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA) and 17th in AVG with RISP and 2 out (min. 50 PA).

Ellsbury had a very special season considering the combination of speed and power. He played good defense in center field and led the AL in TB and EXBH. He also finished in the top 6 in SLG, OPS, homers, RC, RC27, WAR, TOB, and Adjusted OPS. He was 5th in the AL in AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA) and led the AL in AVG with RISP and 2 out (min. 50 PA). Some people down play performance in so-called “clutch” situations. It may be that it is all luck but it’s still damned important.

Ellsbury’s numbers jump out because of that rare speed/power combo. He had 46 doubles, 5 triples, 32 homers, and 39 SB. Certainly a 30-30 season with 46 doubles is impressive, but one could argue that Curtis Granderson had an equally impressive year from a speed/power combo standpoint: 26 doubles, 10 triples, 41 homers, 25 SB. Ellsbury was 4th in the AL in SB but he was also 2nd in CS. He stole 39 bases in 54 tries for a 72.2% success rate which is just barely above this year’s AL average rate of 72.1%.

In the end, for me it was essentially a tossup between Bautista and Cabrera. Miguel Cabrera had another excellent season, winning the AL batting crown (AVG) and leading the league in OBP, RC, and TOB. He was also tied for 1st in the AL in adjusted OPS; 2nd in SLG, OPS, and RC27; and 3rd in TB, EXBH, and WAR. He only hit 30 homers (tied 10th in the AL) but he excelled in the clutch situations, finishing 2nd in the AL in both AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA) and AVG with RISP and 2 out (min. 50 PA).

Bautista backed up his stunning 2010 breakthrough with another fantastic season. He led the AL in SLG, OPS, homers, RC27, and WAR. He was tied 1st in Adjusted OPS; 2nd in OBP and RC; and tied 2nd TOB.

The only negative for Bautista was his performance in “clutch” situations. Again, I realize that many baseball people feel that clutch hitting is lucky hitting but it does have a major effect on the game. And the fact is that Bautista wasn’t just worse with RISP and with RISP and 2 outs than he was the rest of the time, he was way worse. To be sure, Bautista was pitched around a lot but when pitchers did go after him in high leverage spots he wasn’t very good. He was 69th in the AL in AVG with RISP (min. 100 PA) and 59th in AVG with RISP and 2 out (min. 50 PA).

I fully understand that AVG doesn’t have a high correlation with scoring runs, while OBP is the single greatest factor. However, in RISP situations I look at AVG. My reasoning may well be flawed. Perhaps someone smarter than me could blow up my theory, but the way I see it, while it’s still very important to not make an out with RISP, a hit in that situation is usually going to result in a run, while a walk usually will not. This is why guys get pitched around or intentionally walked with men on base and first base open.

Bautista’s poor numbers in clutch spots made it really close. Cabrera also played on a team that went to the postseason and he played very well in the playoffs. But in the end I went with Bautista because he led the AL in 4 of the most important categories for me: OPS, homers, RC27, and WAR. He was also 2nd in 2 other very important categories: SLG and RC. He crushed 43 dingers; 13 more than Cabrera. And his 8.5 WAR was 1.3 better than the next best guy at 7.2 (Ellsbury) and 1.4 better than Cabrera at 7.1.


The Big Frank Thomas Award

American League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Jose Bautista (RF-Toronto)

Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera (1B-Detroit)

Third Place: (Tie) Adrian Gonzalez (1B-Boston)/Jacoby Ellsbury (CF-Boston)

Comments: This is the overall MVP award for the AL (pitchers and hitters).

It would take a very, very special season by a pitcher and a down year for position players for me to give the award to a pitcher. Starting pitchers face a lot of batters during the season and end up affecting many more individual plate appearances than position players do. However, starting pitchers only affect the outcome of 30 to 35 games a season, where as the best position players affect the outcome of 150 to 162 games a season both defensively and offensively.

Justin Verlander was certainly a candidate this season. I understand the rationale behind picking him as the AL MVP: the Tigers were 25-9 with him on the mound (.735) and 70-58 without him (.547). I realize his record in games after Detroit losses was also super. But those are secondary numbers for me. They might push a pitcher over the top in a close race but they aren’t the first thing I look at.

The argument of “where would they be without him?” is the one most often being used to validate Verlander as the MVP, but that misses the point entirely. The award isn’t for the most valuable player to his particular team; it’s the most valuable player for any team. A player who has an incredible season for a team that only wins 75 games shouldn’t be downgraded because his team didn’t accomplish anything. Nor should a pitcher be downgraded if he has an incredible year for a team of superstars that wins 120 games and takes the division by 35 games.

And even if we play the game that some people want to play, and talk about how much Verlander meant to his particular team, it still doesn’t hold water. The Tigers were 70-58 without Verlander for a .547 winning percentage. If they won at that same percentage in the 34 games that Verlander did pitch they still would have won about 18 games, finishing the year 88-74 and winning the AL Central by 8 games. Even if they just went 11-23 in those 34 games they would have won the AL Central.

But this is all besides the point. Those are secondary things and there are other secondary things to look at like postseason performance, where Verlander was frankly not very good. Most importantly, while Verlander was clearly the best pitcher in the AL by a wide margin it wasn’t like he had some kind of historically dominant year.

Okay, maybe that’s hyperbole. He did have an unbelievable season, as he led the AL in Wins, ERA, and K’s which hasn’t been done very often. However, he won the AL ERA title by 0.01 over Jered Weaver. By comparison, when Pedro Martinez led the AL in ERA in 2000 with a 1.74 ERA he won the title by 1.96 over Roger Clemens.

Verlander tied with Jose Bautista for the AL lead in WAR, which shows just how awesome and valuable he was this season. I would have had Verlander somewhere between 5th and 11th in the AL MVP race, but not in the top 4, and certainly not 1st.

Finally, I would like to make one last point about why I would only have the top pitcher ahead of the top position player in the MVP in rare occasions. I understand that starters have a major impact on the games that they do appear in, pitching and playing the field (though offensively they don’t usually have much impact and in the AL they don’t have any impact offensively). Having said that, Verlander pitched in 34 of Detroit’s 162 games this season. Regardless of the crucial role that each game’s starting pitcher plays, 34 of 162 is still slightly less than 21%. LeBron James might be the best player in the NBA but he would never win the MVP if he only played in 17 of 82 games. No quarterback would win the MVP for their performance in 3.5 out of 16 games. Different sports, I know. But I think my point is valid and fairly easy to understand.


The Joe Torre Award

American League Manager of the Year

Winner: Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay)

Runner-up: Ron Washington (Texas)

Third Place: Jim Leyland (Detroit)

Comments: These things are always subjective.

Jim Leyland isn’t always popular with fans and he certainly does things which aren’t logical (such as batting Austin Jackson in the leadoff spot all season). However, the guy knows how to manage a Major League ballclub. He’s had success throughout his career. The Tigers didn’t catch a lot of breaks this season but he pushed a lot of right buttons to get them to the postseason.

Ron Washington also does some things which make you scratch your head, but again, he does a lot of things right. His players love him and play hard for him and whether stat people want to admit it or not that does matter.

I went with Maddon because the Rays don’t have all the resources other teams do and they don’t get any support from fans. They made a ridiculous run to the postseason and you have to give Maddon some credit. He’s proven to be one of the managers that actually maters.


The Pat Gillick Award

American League Executive of the Year

Winner: Jon Daniels (Texas)

Runner-up: Dave Dombrowski (Detroit)

Third Place: (Tie) Brian Cashman (New York Yankees)/ Theo Epstein (Boston Red Sox)

Comments: This one is always tied to performance and it’s also highly subjective.

If you are wondering how Cashman and Epstein got in this one, I’ll explain. First of all, I know some of Boston’s moves didn’t work and I know they collapsed, but they still got Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (who I still believe is going to be Carl Crawford at some point) and I don’t think Boston’s collapse can be blamed on Epstein.

Like Epstein, Cashman has the advantage of an unlimited budget, but this season Cashman’s moves were more like scrap heap gambles than can’t miss blue chips: Freddy Garcia; Bartolo Colon; Andruw Jones; etc. He built a rotation and a bench out of used and seemingly worthless parts.

Dombrowski also has a lot of money at his disposal but he made moves that were panned by many which turned out to be very important: signing Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque, and Victor Martinez during the offseason; trading for Doug Fister at the non-waiver deadline; and trading for Delmon Young after the non-waiver deadline.

I went with Daniels because he got the Rangers back to the series despite not being able to resign Cliff Lee. He signed Adrian Beltre even though it meant moving Michael Young yet again. He traded Frank Francisco for Mike Napoli. During the summer he acquired Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, giving Texas one of the best bullpens in the game. Daniels is overlooked by the media which focuses on Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington but he shouldn’t be.


The Cecil Fielder Award

American League Comeback Player of the Year

Winner: Bartolo Colon (SP-Texas)

Runner-up: Alex Gordon (LF-Kansas City)

Third Place: Jacoby Ellsbury (CF-Boston)

Comments: There were several good candidates for this one, including Freddy Garcia, Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Joe Nathan, Curtis Granderson, Scott Shields, and Carlos Santana. Eventually I came up with the top three.

Jacoby Ellsbury certainly had the best season of anyone eligible for this award. His 2010 season was basically wiped out by injuries and he came back this season with an MVP-caliber year. However, I placed Ellsbury third because his comeback was rather expected. He got hurt in 2010 and it ruined his season. That’s understandable and happens to many players. Nobody thought his career was over and most people didn’t think less of him as a player. He may well have been the breakthrough player of the year but not the comeback player of the year, although he was a candidate. He may not have been expected to have as great a year as he did this season but great things were still expected out of him. That wasn’t the case for the other two guys.

Going into this season, Alex Gordon looked like another “can’t miss” bust. He was supposed to be a superstar but somehow the Royals had screwed it up. Gordon was the #2 overall pick in 2005 and made his debut in 2007, playing in 151 games and hitting .247 with 15 homers. The next year he played in 134 games and hit .260 with a .351 OBP and 16 homers. In 2009 he took a major step back, playing in only 49 games and hitting .232, while his OPS dropped to .703. All the while he was really struggling in the field at third base and was eventually transitioned to the outfield. Last year he played in just 74 games, hitting .215 with a .671 OPS. He had just 8 homers, 20 RBI, 1 SB in 6 attempts, and nearly twice as many K’s as walks. It wasn’t looking good for the now 27 year old.

Gordon wasn’t left for dead but it was basically only the Royals who were still believing in him and they didn’t have a choice. This season he went from bust to the guy everyone expected him to be. He played in 151 games and posted career highs in AVG (.303), OBP (.376), SLG (.502), OPS (.879), BB (67), runs (101), hits (185), doubles (45), triples (4), homers (23), RBI (87), and SB (17). In addition, he led the AL in Range Factor/Game for left fielders, Fielding% for left fielders, and assists by outfielders with 20. Gordon’s comeback season was career altering.

Bartolo Colon gets the nod, however, as his comeback season was seemingly impossible. Following his Cy Young 2005 season, Colon’s career was completely derailed by arm injuries. He made just 10 starts the next season, going 1-5 with a 5.11 ERA. In 2007 he pitched in 19 games for the Angels, making 18 starts, and went 6-8 with a 6.34 ERA. The Red Sox took a flier on him in 2008 and he went 4-2 with a 3.92 ERA but made only 7 starts. The White Sox gave him a shot in 2009 but he went 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA in only 12 starts and was released in mid-September. He was done for. He missed all of 2010 and to most people he became a “former player.”

But out of the blue the Yankees signed him last winter and he ended up making the rotation. From 2006-2009 Colon had pitched in 48 games, making 47 starts, and going 14-21 with 1 CG, 1 SHO, a 5.18 ERA, a 1.506 WHIP, an 11.1 H/9, and a 6.0 K/9 over 257 total innings. Then he missed all of 2010. But this season Colon pitched in 29 games for the Yanks, making 26 starts, and going 8-10 with 1 CG, 1 SHO, a 4.00 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, a 9.4 H/9, and a 7.4 K/9 over 164.1 total innings at the age of 38. That’s pretty remarkable.

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