The Braves Blog: 2011 Roster Guide Part IV

Diamonds in the Rough/Spot Fillers/Roster Expanders

Introduction: This is the fourth and final edition of the Braves 2011 roster guide. We’ve covered the 25-man roster (at least as it looked coming out of spring training), the likely non-prospect replacement players, and the prospects. This final part of the guide gathers together the leftovers from the 40-man roster. These are minor leaguers who would not qualify as “prospects.” While many (most?) of these guys will never appear for the ML Braves, some of them certainly will (one of them is pitching out of the Atlanta bullpen right now). Injuries could force some of these fringe type players into big league duty. Some of these guys will likely be called up in September when rosters expand, and thus could end up playing in some huge games. Finally, this part of the guide is the place you will find diamonds in the rough. And there are always diamonds in the rough (Greg McMichael, Charles Thomas, Nick Green, Brooks Conrad, etc).

Pitchers

Jairo Asencio (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 27

MLB Time: 2009 (3 games, 2.2 innings, 1 run, 0-1), 2011 (2 games, 5 innings, 0 runs, 4 hits, 1 BB, 4 K)

Drafted/Signed: 2001 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Called up to replace Peter Moylan when he went on the DL. Formerly known as Luis Valdez. Asencio appeared briefly with the Braves in 2009, but he was unable to pitch professionally last year due to visa problems. He’s back, with a new name, and appears to be better than ever.

Asencio signed with Pittsburgh in 2001 but didn’t pitch in the minors until 2004. He really didn’t show anything at all during his 4 years in the Pirates system. He signed with the Braves after the 2007 season, and it was over the next two years that he proved himself to be a capable reliever. In 2008 and 2009, Asencio pitched in 116 games at AA and AAA, recording 57 saves, while posting a 2.94 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 159 K over 140.2 innings.

After missing last year, he made his return at spring training and looked great in 10 appearances, allowing just 1 run on 7 hits and 3 walks with 9 K over 13 innings. He’s a decent arm to have in situations just like this, when one of the main guys goes on the DL. He’ll primarily be used in long relief situations and when the Braves are behind by more than a run or two late.

2011: 4 scoreless innings at AAA; 5 scoreless in Atlanta.

Juan Abreu (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 26

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2005 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Pitched in 39 games at AA last year, recording 11 saves, and posting a 3.20 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP with 47 K over 44.2 innings. He has had good K numbers throughout his minor league career. Control is not his strong suit. He pitched well in spring training, making 11 appearances, and allowing just 1 run on 8 hits and 5 walks with 11 K over 11.1 innings. He’s another nice right handed arm to have just in case.

2011: 4 games, 4 innings, 0 runs, 3 K at AAA.

Cody Gearrin (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 25

MLB Time: Could make MLB debut tonight

Drafted/Signed: 4^th round of the 2007 draft

Notes: Not sure why Gearrin has been ignored to a large extent. He’s coming off of back to back solid seasons at the higher levels of the minors. In 2009 he made 47 appearances at advanced-A and AA, recording 19 saves while posting a 2.30 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 52 K over 54.2 innings. Last season he pitched in 52 games at AAA, posting a 3.36 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and 66 K over 80.1 innings. On the other hand, as Gearrin has advanced in the minors his K’s have decreased while his walks, HBP, and homers have increased. Gearrin also struggled in limited action this spring, pitching in 4 games and allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 HBP, and 3 K over 4 innings.

2011: 6 games, 10.1 IP, 10 hits, 4 walks, 1 HBP, 8 K, 3 runs at AAA.

Anthony Varvaro (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 26

MLB Time: 2010 with Seattle (4 games, 4 innings pitched, 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 6 walks with 5 K.

Drafted/Signed: 12^th round of the 2005 draft

Notes: Like many minor league pitchers, Varvaro has had good K numbers but has struggled with control. He has struggled in general at AAA. He also struggled in 5 appearances in ST, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks with 3 K over 4.2 innings.

2011: 0-2 in 5 games at AAA. 6.1 IP, 7 runs (5 earned), a homer, 2 hits, 6 BB, and 3 K.

Michael Broadway (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 24

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 4^th round of 2005 draft

Notes: Broadway had 57 K over 53.1 innings during 40 appearances between AA and AAA last season, but his 4.39 ERA and 1.42 WHIP were not so encouraging. He didn’t blow anyone away during 4 appearances at spring training either, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, a homer, 2 HBP, a walk, and 3 K.

2011: 3 games, 4 IP, 1 run, 6 K at AA.

Yohan Flande (Reliever/Starter)

Pitches: Left Handed

Age: 25

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2006 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Flande is left handed, therefore he has a chance. Of his 93 career minor league appearances prior to this season, 84 had been starts. Over that time he posted a 3.23 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, while fanning just 367 over 510 innings. At AAA for the first time, Flande is also being used exclusively as a reliever for the first time this season, and perhaps his K numbers will rise (as they did with Johnny Venters). He only got 1 appearance this spring and gave up a walk and a 2-run homer without striking anyone out in his only inning of work.

2011: 4 games, 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K at AAA.

Todd Redmond (Reliever/Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 26 (on 5/17)

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 39^th round of 2004 draft

Notes: Redmond was surely proud and excited when the Pirates drafted him in the 39^th round of the 2004 draft. However, he must have felt some trepidation being taken that late in a draft by Pittsburgh, especially considering that the Royals took him in the 40^th round a year earlier. Redmond has pitched in 158 games during his career in the minors, 148 as a starter, posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and 706 K over 871.1 innings. He is beginning his third season at AAA but his first working exclusively as a reliever. Redmond was fairly impressive in his 2 ST appearances, recording a pair of saves while allowing 1 run on 2 hits and a walk with 6 K over 4 innings.

2011: 5 games, 4.1 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 3 BB, 7 K at AAA.

Position Players

Mauro Gomez (Corner Infielder)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 26

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2004 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: If the most common trait of a career minor league pitcher is lots of K’s and lots of walks, the career minor league position player equivalent is lots of power lots of K’s. Gomez certainly has power, as he showed at AA last year, racking up 42 doubles, 16 homers, and 80 RBI, while walking 46 times and fanning 122 times in 495 at bats (.281/.349/.471/.820). He didn’t get much of a chance to shine in ST but his power was still on display, as he went 1 for 2 with a 2-run jack.

2011: 17 for 44 with 7 doubles, 2 homers, 11 RBI, 2 BB, and 12 K at AAA (.386/.413/.682/1.095).

Jose Constanza (Outfielder)

Bats: Left Handed

Age: 27

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2005 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Zero power. Good speed. He has decent plate discipline that seems to be improving, but the clock is ticking and he’s already 27. He hit .319 with a .373 OBP and stole 34 bags in 40 tries last year at AAA. He went 4 for 18 with a walk this spring.

2011: 16 for 48 (.348) with .412 OBP, 6 SB in 6 tries at AAA.

Dan Nelson (Utility Infielder)

Bats: Switch

Age: 27

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 13^th round of 2004 draft

Notes: Nelson has a weak bat but great plate discipline. Injuries have slowed him down in his career. He spent time at advanced-A, AA, and AAA last year, hitting .275 with a .356 OBP, 13 homers, 52 walks, and 69 K in 415 at bats. Was 0 for 1 in only ST at bat.

2011: 8 for 26 (.308) with .438 OBP, a double, 2 homers, 7 RBI, 6 BB, and 2 K at AAA.

Shawn Bowman (Third Baseman)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 26

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 12^th round of 2002 draft

Notes: Bowman has good power, but like so many career minor leaguers, Bowman’s progress has been slowed by injuries and an inability to make consistent contact. He hit .269/.333/.493/.826 with 22 homers, 37 walks, and 100 strikeouts in 424 at bats at advanced-A and AA last year. If his numbers this spring were any indication, we won’t see Bowman any time soon, as he was 3 for 20 with a homer, 1 walk, and 9 K’s.

2011: 9 for 37 with 2 homers, 3 BB, and 12 K at AAA.

Donell Linares (Third Baseman)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 27

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2008 out of Cuba

Notes: A Cuban defector still trying to catch on. His progress stalled in his 3^rd minor league season last year at AA. He hit .240 with a .279 OBP. He makes good contact but also rarely walks.

2011: 12 for 45 with 3 homers, 4 BB, and 6 K at AA.

Willie Cabrera (Outfielder)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 25 (on 8/13)

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 14^th round of 2005 draft

Notes: Good contact and gets on base a lot. Not much else.

2011: Started at AA, going 6 for 19. 3 for 24 with 2 BB and 7 K so far at AAA.

Marcus Lemon (Outfielder)

Bats: Left Handed

Age: 23 (on 6/3)

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 4^th round of 2006 draft

Notes: Recently acquired. Good walks but K’s a bit high. Little power or speed.

2011: 6 for 25 with no EXBH, 1 BB, and 9 K at AA.

Ernesto Mejia (First Baseman)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 25

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 2005 out of Venezuela

Notes: Good pop. Way too many K’s.

2011: 16 for 45 with 5 doubles, a triple, 2 homers, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 10 K, and 2 SB in 2 tries at AA (.356/.431/.644/1.076).

Stefan Gartrell (Rightfielder)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 27

MLB Time: None

Drafted/Signed: 31^st round of 2006 draft

Notes: Recently acquired. Gartrell was drafted out of college and I’m a bit surprised he hasn’t had a cup of coffee in the big leagues yet. He has good power but also strikes out a lot. Over the last 2 years and AA and AAA, Gartrell has hit .267 with 50 dingers.

2011: AAA in both White Sox and Braves organizations. 12 for 41 (.293) with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 3 BB, and 8 K.

Wilkin Ramirez (Outfielder)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 25

MLB Time: 2009 with Detroit (15 games, 4 for 11 with a triple, a homer, 3 RBI, 1 BB, and 3 K)

Drafted/Signed: 2003 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Good speed, good pop, good walks, and way, way, way, way, way too many K’s. Last year at AA and AAA, Ramirez hit 23 homers with a .306 OBP and 166 strikeouts in 448 at bats.

2011: 5 for 27 with a triple, 2 homers, 1 BB, 4 K, and 1 SB in 1 attempt at AAA.

The Braves Blog: 2011 Roster Guide Part III

The Prospects

Introduction: This is a brief guide to the top prospects in the Braves minor league system. Some of these players are near Major League-ready; others are several years away at least. The top guys are seen by some as “future stars;” towards the end of the list you will find “high ceiling” guys who could just as easily fall off the map. There are also some players who don’t project as stars but who none the less could be Major Leaguers at some point.

Note: Lots of help from the folks at Baseball Prospectus with this one. Also help from Talking Chop.

Pitchers

Julio Teheran (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 20

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: AAA

Drafted/Signed: 2007 out of Colombia

Notes: Widely (if not unanimously) regarded as the #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball. He has power and command. He projects as no-less than an ace. Pitched for low-A, advanced-A, AA last season, posting combined 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 159 K in 142.2 innings. Appeared in 2 games this spring training, allowing no runs on 3 hits and 0 walks with a strikeout in 2 innings of work.

2011: 2 starts, 9.2 innings, 2 earned runs at AAA.

ETA: 2012

Arodys Vizcaino (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 20

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 2007 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Came over from Yanks in deal for Javier Vazquez. Was having a super 2010 before being shutdown with elbow problems. He has great velocity and command, but is a bit undersized. The hope is that he will be a top end of the rotation starter. It’s possible that he won’t be able to handle the load physically as a starter and will end up a reliever (albeit a dominant one). In 4 appearances during ST allowed 2 runs on 7 hits and no walks with 3 K over 4.1 innings.

2011: 2 starts, 10 IP, 5 runs (3 earned), 10 K at advanced-A.

ETA: 2013

Randall Delgado (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 5^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 2006 out of Panama

Notes: Delgado has both great stuff and command. Stamina is a question at this point. He does not have the ace type stuff of Teheran and Vizcaino, but he projects as a solid #3 starter and maybe better. Last year at advanced-A and AA he posted 3.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 162 K in 161 innings. Pitched in 3 games this ST, allowing 1 run on 4 hits and no walks with 3 K over 3 innings.

2011: 3 starts, 16.2 innings, 6 runs (3 earned), 18 K at AA.

ETA: 2012

Carlos Perez (Starter)

Pitches: Left Handed

Age: 19

Experience: 3^rd season

High Level: low-A

Drafted/Signed: 2008 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: The expectation level falls off dramatically after the top 3 (Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado), but there’s plenty of talent beyond. Perez is a long and lean left hander who is still growing into his frame. He has a reputation for being a tough competitor. Last season at Rookie and low-A, Perez posted 1.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 31 K in 39 innings. The top left handed pitching prospect in the organization.

2011: 3 starts, 15 innings, 6 runs (4 earned), 19 K at low-A.

ETA: 2014

JJ Hoover (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 23

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 10^th round of 2008 draft

Notes: Hoover is thick physically and aggressive in style. He consistently gets ahead of batters and is able to last deep into the game. However, he is sometimes too much over the plate. In other words, he will groove a pitch that is simply too hittable (this would especially be the case in the big leagues). At advanced-A and AA last season, Hoover went 14-7 with 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 152 K in 153.1 innings. Has been compared to Brandon Beachy.

2011: 3 games, 2 starts, 9.2 innings, 3 earned runs, 10 K at AA.

ETA: 2012

Brett Oberholtzer (Starter)

Pitches: Left Handed

Age: 22 (on 7/1)

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 8^th round of 2008 draft

Notes: A physical left hander who pounds the zone consistently. Pitched at low-A and advanced-A last season, posting 3.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 126 K in 135.2 innings. Made 4 appearances in ST, allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits and 4 walks with only 1 K over 6.2 innings.

2011: 2 starts, 11.2 innings, 2 earned runs, 9 K at AA.

ETA: 2012

Stephen Marek (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 27

Experience: 7^th season

High Level: AAA

Drafted/Signed: 40^th round of 2004 draft

Notes: There is another drop off in expectation at this point. Amazingly, Marek is all the Braves have left to show for Mark Teixeira. Marek could be called up to help out in the bullpen in Atlanta at some point this season. At AA and AAA last year, Marek pitched in 60 games and recorded 13 saves with a 1.14 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and 74 K in 63.1 innings. During ST he made 6 appearances, allowing 1 run on 4 hits and 5 walks with 6 K over 6.1 innings.

2011: 4 games, 5.1 innings, 0 runs, 7 K, 3 hits, 0 BB.

ETA: 2011 or 2012

Benino Pruneda (Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 23 (on 8/8)

Experience: 5^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 31^st round of 2007 draft

Notes: This guy is tiny, but he gets a lot of guys to swing and miss. Last year at advanced-A and AA, Pruneda pitched in 45 games and fanned 93 over 64.2 innings.

2011: 4 games, 3.2 innings, 5 runs (4 earned), 6 BB, 3 K at AA.

ETA: 2013 or 2014

Paul Clemens (Starter/Reliever)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 23

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 7^th round of 2008 draft

Notes: Baseball Prospectus labeled Clemens a “sleeper.” He has a power arm, but at this point it’s not clear whether he fits best as a starter or as a reliever. He made 27 relief appearances and 8 starts last year at low-A and advanced-A, posting a 3.23 ERA.

2011: 2 starts, 10 innings, 6 runs (3 earned), 11 K at AA.

ETA: 2013 or 2014

Zeke Spruill (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 2^nd round of 2008 draft

Notes: There’s obviously a lot of hope placed in Spruill, as he was drafted in the 2^nd round, but he struggled at low-A last year. He was simply way too hittable.

2011: 2 starts, 11 innings, 5 runs (4 earned), 6 K at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Tyler Stovall (Starter/Reliever)

Pitches: Left Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: Low-A

Drafted/Signed: 2^nd of 2008 draft

Notes: Like Spruill, there is hope placed in Stovall, as he was a 2^nd round pick in 2008, but he struggled at low-A last year. He did have good K numbers, however.

2011: 3 games, 3.1 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 4 BB, 0 K at A.

ETA: NA

Erik Cordier (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 25

Experience: 6^th (missed 2005 and 2007)

High Level: AAA

Drafted/Signed: 2^nd round of 2004 draft

Notes: Cordier is on the edge of no longer being correctly termed a “prospect.” He came over from KC in a deal for Tony Pena Jr. Injuries have hampered his career. At AA and AAA last year he was 12-8 in 23 starts with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

2011: On the 7-day DL at AAA.

ETA: NA

Cory Rasmus (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 23

Experience: 5^th season (missed 2007)

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 1^st round of 2006 draft

Notes: Pitching at low-A and advanced-A last year, Rasmus made 28 appearances, including 20 starts, and posted a 3.18 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP.

2011: 2 starts, 8.1 innings, 9 hits, 11 runs (5 earned), 17 K at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Steve Kent (Starter/Reliever)

Pitches: Left Handed

Age: 22

Experience: 5^th season (missed 2009)

High Level: Low-A

Drafted/Signed: Signed out of Australia in 2007

Notes: Dominant in 19 games as reliever at low-A last year.

2011: 2 starts, 11 innings, 9 hits, 4 runs, 7 K at A.

ETA: NA

David Filak (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Low-A

Drafted/Signed: 4^th round of 2010 draft

Notes: Filak went to Oneonta State as a catcher, thinking he might not get much playing time, but he went 18-5 as a pitcher in 3 years with the Red Dragons and wound up getting drafted in the 4^th round. He was Impressive in Rookie league last year.

2011: 2 starts, 7.1 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 7 BB, 5 K.

ETA: NA

Abraham Espinosa (Starter)

Pitches: Right Handed

Age: 18 (on 6/3)

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Dominican Summer League

Drafted/Signed: 2010 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: Highly touted signee from the DR.

2011: NA

ETA: NA

Position Players

Matt Lipka (Shortstop)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 19

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Low-A

Drafted/Signed: 1^st round of 2010 draft

Notes: Good speed, very shaky glove. Reputation as hard worker. Impatient hitter at this point. Only 1 homer in 208 AB in Rookie ball last year. Did steal 21 bases in 24 tries. 1 for 3 with a double and a strikeout this ST.

2011: .260 average with no EXBH in 50 AB at low-A.

ETA: 2014

Edward Salcedo (Shortstop/Third Baseman)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 20 (on 7/30)

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Low-A

Drafted/Signed: 2010 out of Dominican Republic

Notes: He was overwhelmed by introduction to America/pro ball last year. Super arm but not much range at short. Not too fast. Currently trying to transition to third base. Needs discipline at the plate.

2011: Tearing it up at low-A, hitting .349 with a .952 OPS in 43 at bats.

ETA: 2014

Christian Bethancourt (Catcher)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 19

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: low-A

Drafted/Signed: 2008 out of Panama

Notes: Struggled at the plate in low-A last year. Good against base stealers. 0 for 3 with a walk this ST.

2011: 7 for 43 with no BB at low-A.

ETA: NA

Mycal Jones (Outfielder/Shortstop)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 24 (on 5/30)

Experience: 3^rd season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 4^th round of 2009 draft

Notes: Good pop and speed but K’s a ton. Great athlete. Shaky glove. Moved from shortstop to centerfield. Jones’ talent is obvious. Unfortunately he is fighting dual battles against inexperience and age. Jones did not make his high school squad in his freshman or sophomore years, and he rode the bench his junior year. He played regularly his senior year and then played 3 seasons for North Florida. He spent his senior year at Miami-Dade Community College.

Thus, Jones was already 22 when he started playing pro ball, having only a few years of experience at any level under his belt, and even less experience playing against a high level of competition. Played at low-A, advanced-A, and AA last season, and posted a .327 OBP with 15 homers, 22 SB, and 123 K in 504 at bats. He went 2 for 10 with a double, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts during ST.

2011: On 7-day DL at AA.

ETA: NA

Tyler Pastornicky (Shortstop)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 4^th season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 5^th round of 2008 draft

Notes: Came over from Toronto in Escobar trade. Good glove. Good speed. Great discipline at the plate. But can he hit? Went 3 for 5 with a pair of walks during spring training.

2011: .342 in 38 at bats at AA.

ETA: NA

Andrelton Simmons (Shortstop)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 21

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 2^nd round of 2010 draft

Notes: Simmons is a peculiar case. He hails from Curacao (Andy Jones, Jair Jurrjens) but he didn’t get a lot of run as a pro prospect out of high school, so he went to Western Oklahoma State Junior College. There he was able to shine as both a shortstop and a pitcher. Despite being slowed by a toe injury, he did enough in 1 year to warrant a high draft selection. As a defensive shortstop Simmons is top notch, but he may not end up hitting enough for it to matter.

Many scouts felt his greatest value was as a pitcher (clocked at 98 MPH), not only because he had great potential on the mound, but also because many worried that he would never be able to hit enough to be an MLB position player, no matter how good he was in the field. Indeed, upon taking Simmons with the 70^th overall pick in 2010, the Braves explained that they had drafted Simmons to be a pitcher.

But somewhere along the way the organization apparently changed their mind. Simmons spent his first year of pro ball playing short. He hit .276 with a .340 OBP at Rookie ball, and outlandish claims about his potential as a defensive shortstop were bandied about. However, the Braves are clearly going against the grain here. At the moment it would appear that they have fouled up, as Simmons is 6 for 34 at advanced-A, and has already made 7 errors in the field.

Perhaps it isn’t a big deal. Maybe they feel that reversing course would not be a major issue, but it might be. Let’s say the Braves decide it isn’t working out and have Simmons convert to full time pitcher next year. Simmons would be starting his first season of pro ball as a pitcher at the age of 22.

2011: 6 for 34 at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Todd Cunningham (Outfielder)

Bats: Switch

Age: 22

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 2^nd round of 2010 draft

Notes: Cunningham is a college player who should eventually hit with power. Cunningham spent 3 seasons at Jacksonville State, leading the Gamecocks to a berth in the CWS in his junior year. He also won a Cape Cod League batting title in 2009. 0 for 3 at ST.

2011: 8 for 35 at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Adam Milligan (Outfielder)

Bats: Left Handed

Age: 23

Experience: 3^rd season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 6^th round of 2008 draft

Notes: That the Braves were high on Milligan had become obvious by the time he became part of the organization. They drafted him 3 years in a row, with Milligan signing with the organization after playing for Walters State junior college. Milligan flat out rakes, but so far he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He had a knee injury coming out of JUCO and did not play until 2009. Went 0 for 2 with a strikeout in ST action.

2011: 9 for 26 with 2 homers at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Joe Leonard (Third Baseman)

Bats: Right Handed

Age: 23 (on 8/26)

Experience: 2^nd season

High Level: Advanced-A

Drafted/Signed: 3^rd round of 2010 draft

Notes: 6 foot 5 slugger out of Pitt. Pitched and played third in 3 seasons for the Panthers. Leonard hit .268 at low-A last year in his first season of pro ball.

2011: 7 for 38 at advanced-A.

ETA: NA

Cory Harrilchak (Outfielder)

Bats: Left Handed

Age: 23

Experience: 3^rd season

High Level: AA

Drafted/Signed: 14^th round of 2009 draft

Notes: Starred as hitter and pitcher during 3 years at Elon. He hit .287 with a .354 OBP at low-A and advanced-A last season. He was 0 for 5 with a walk during spring training.

2011: 10 for 41 with a homer at AA.

ETA: NA

The Hawks Blog: Rethinking the Orlando Series

While I was totally thrilled by the Hawks’ 10 point win in Orlando in game 1 of the 2011 playoffs, I must admit to being just as stunned and caught off guard by it. As surprised as I was by the general consensus among so-called experts that the Hawks had a chance in this series, I only allowed myself to gain a slight bit of hope from it. I chalked it up to those experts not really understanding the situation. While it would be foolish to get our hopes up too much based on the results of one game, perhaps it’s time to take a different look at this matchup.

Original Statement: It’s not even worth considering whether or not the Hawks could pull off an upset in this series.

Old Justification: Hello. Did you watch the playoffs last year?

New Argument: But wait. This is a very different Orlando team.

Evidence: What was it that had previously made the Magic the absolute worst matchup for the Hawks? Their size and their shooters. They got every rebound against us and there was always some wide open shooter who would knock down an outside shot. And this was apart from the fact that we had no answer for Dwight Howard. Howard stymied our inside game, and the length and height of the other guys limited our outside game. And then there was last year’s addition of Vince Carter. Say what you will about Carter’s value to the Magic in all other matchups, but he absolutely killed us.

Thus, the Magic won 7 of the 8 matchups with the Hawks last season, regular and postseason combined. They were 10-2 against us over the previous two seasons, including the playoffs. But that Orlando Magic team that dominated the Hawks over the previous two seasons no longer exists. The following is the roster of the Orlando team that went up against the Hawks in the 2^nd round last year (notes on how player left team in parentheses):

Starting Five

PG Jameer Nelson

SG Vince Carter (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)

SF Matt Barnes (Signed with LAL during offseason)

PF Rashard Lewis (Traded to Washington 12/18)

C Dwight Howard

Rest of Rotation

PG Jason Williams (Waived 1/26)

SG JJ Redick

SF Mickael Pietrus (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)

PF Ryan Anderson

C Marcin Gortat (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)

PG Anthony Johnson (Not resigned)

PF Brandon Bass

Here’s what the Orlando roster looks like now (note: only top 9 of 12 players have appeared in series so far):

Starting Five

PG Jameer Nelson

SG Jason Richardson (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)

SF Hedo Turkoglu (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)

PF Brandon Bass

C Dwight Howard

Rest of Rotation

PG Gilbert Arenas (Came over from Washington in trade 12/18)

SG JJ Redick

SG Quentin Richardson (Signed as FA during offseason)

PF Ryan Anderson

PG Chris Duhon (Signed as FA during offseason)

PF Earl Clark (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)

PF Malik Allen (Signed as FA during offseason)

Obviously, it’s a very different team. Turkoglu has always torched us, and the Magic were never as good without him last year as they had been the year before, but he appears to be a different player now. Likewise, Arenas has always been tough on the Hawks, but he is not the player he used to be.

The Magic simply haven’t been as good a team this season as they were last year. Last year’s Orlando team finished 2^nd in the East with a 59-23 record, going 34-7 at home and 25-16 on the road. This year’s team finished 4^th in the East at 52-30, going 29-12 at home and 23-18 on the road. Last year’s team went 23-5 after the All-Star break, 28-16 against teams above .500, and 39-6 in games decided by double digits. This year’s team went 16-9 after the break, 19-22 against teams above .500, and 33-9 in games decided by double digits. Last year’s team was 6^th in scoring, 4^th in points allowed, and 1^st in simple rating. This year’s team finished 16^th in scoring, 4^th in points allowed, and 5^th in simple rating. Finally, last year’s team ended up going 7-1 against the Hawks, playoffs included. So far, this year’s team is 1-4 against the Hawks, playoffs included.

The NBA Blog: 2011 Playoff Preview and Predictions

2011 NBA Playoff Predictions

The NBA playoffs are about to begin again. By the time they are over we’ll be seeing “Back to school” commercials on TV. The last month of the regular season always drags on a bit too long. Then once the playoffs start, they usually take a while to get going. But once it gets good, there’s nothing better for anyone who likes basketball.

For me, one reason the NBA season seems more tedious at times than other sports is that it usually seems like only a handful of teams have a legit shot at the title, and we often know (or think we know) which teams those are by the second month of the season. Early on that seemed to be the case again this season. But there were some surprises (Chicago and San Antonio as the #1 seeds, the Perkins trade) and some of the contenders started to show signs of vulnerability. All of the sudden people are talking about this being the most wide-open postseason in years.

More than once in the last few years the buzz leading up to the playoffs has been about how great the Western Conference playoffs could be--with the #1 and #8 seeds separated by only a few games in the standings—and about Lebron and Kobe going at it in the finals. It’s never really played out that way. In 2009, 4 of the 7 Western Conference series ended in 5 games, and the only 7-game series was LA vs. Houston in the conference semis (no one thought for a half second that LA would lose that game 7). Lebron’s team went out in 6 in the conference finals against Orlando, and it should have been over in 5. Last year no series went 7 in the West and both semifinal series were sweeps. LBJ’s boys got bounced in the Eastern Conference semi’s by Boston. Don’t get me wrong: I’ve loved the playoffs in both of the last 2 years. I’m just saying that the results didn’t jive with the hype leading up to the playoffs.

This year the talk is about how wide-open things are, and this time I don’t think there’s any way the buzz could be wrong, because there just isn’t a clear cut favorite in either conference. There are doubts about the #1 seeds in both conferences. There are also doubts about the teams that were perceived to be the top contenders going into the season. We won’t be saying, “Well, things turned out how we expected,” because nobody knows what to expect.

Okay, this intro is dragging on and probably should have been wrapped up two paragraphs ago. It’s reminding me of the regular season. Let’s get to the playoffs.

Eastern Conference

First Round

Maybe the first round will be as compelling as promised in the West this year. Nobody ever expects much from the first round on the Eastern side, and with good reason. This year isn’t much different. I mean, what’s the over under on the total number of games in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs? It can’t be more than 20.5. But you know, lately there’s usually been one Eastern Conference first round series that turns out to be a bit closer than expected. Still, I don’t see any of the first round series being competitive this year.

If Miami had finished as the #1 seed I would have gone off on a tangent about the similarities between a Heat-Pacers matchup and the 2008 first round matchup of Boston-Atlanta. In fact, it’s such an interesting comparison that I’m going to go off on a tangent anyway. Think about it. You have a team going from afterthought to favorite in a matter of days during the offseason. The team does this by acquiring two stars from different teams to join with a star who has been with the franchise his entire career. This trio immediately starts to be referred to as “the Big 3.” The team is the #1 seed in the East but they’ve never gone through the playoffs together before. They draw a #8 seed team making their first playoff appearance in years, having reached the postseason despite a 37-45 record. The series goes the distance, but the #1 seed wins and then goes on to win the championship.

It sure would have made for an interesting comparison, but I won’t waste your time by going off on a tangent. There’s no way the Bulls lose a game in this series. They finished 25 games ahead of Indiana in the standings; they have a better record on the road than the Pacers do at home; and they are 37-7 against teams with losing records, while the Pacers are 13-31 against teams with winning records. In fact, the Bulls have better record against teams with winning records than the Pacers do against teams with losing records. The Bulls did lose in Indy last month, but it was in OT, and it was the second game of a back-to-back for a Chicago team playing without Carlos Boozer. The Bulls won each of the other 3 meetings this year by double digits. Chicago should cruise.

I realize that the Heat didn’t gel as quickly as they thought they would this year and that this will be their first time in the playoffs as a unit, but they really shouldn’t lose a game to Philly. Miami may have struggled late in games and against good teams this season, but they still won 58 games, and the Sixers are 41-41. The Sixers finished the season losing 5 of their last 6 games, and Miami swept the season series 3-0, winning all 3 games by at least 9 points, including opening night in Philly.

Boston-New York is the one first round series that people are rumbling about being closer than expected. Some are even predicting New York to pull off the upset. I think that’s foolishness. Closer than the other 3 series? Maybe. But New York isn’t going to win. Clearly Boston hasn’t been the same since the Perkins deal, and Shaq has logged a total of 5 minutes of playing time since February 4^th. But aren’t the Celtics still much better than New York without Perkins or Shaq? Sure the atmosphere at MSG will be electric, but Boston has as good of a road record as the Knicks do at home (23-18). The Celtics have already won twice in New York this year. The C’s swept the Knicks in the regular season, 4-0, winning two of the games by double digits (I know the last game of the season didn’t mean anything but the one in New York on March 21^st did). The Knicks went 28-26 before the Melo deal; 14-14 after. They are 17-24 against teams with winning records. Can the Knicks win a game or two? Probably. But they aren’t winning the series.

I happened to notice something the other day that truly surprised me. Of the 12 so-called “NBA experts” on ESPN.com, only 1 has the Hawks being swept by Orlando in the first round. I felt a twinge of hope. It was yet another example of my inner child sports fan’s remarkable resiliency. The Magic aren’t as good as they were a year ago, but they still have Dwight Howard, and my Hawks are still my Hawks. I really don’t want to get more into it than that because my inner child sports fan wants to believe. For now, suffice to say that I don’t expect we’ll win a game, much less 4.

Second Round

It’s usually in the second round that the Eastern Conference playoffs get good, and I think it will be the same this year. To be honest, if the first round plays out with the favorites winning, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the remaining 4 teams ended up in the NBA Finals. The Bulls have been the best team in the world for the last few months. The Celtics looked like the best team in the world a few months ago. The Heat looked like the best team in the world last July. The Magic haven’t looked like the best team at any point since losing in the conference finals last year, but they didn’t look like the best team in 2009 either and they upset Boston and Lebron.

I would have to take Chicago against the Magic. The Bulls have just been too good this year for me to pick them to lose to Orlando. They won 3 of 4 against the Magic this season, including both games in Orlando. Plus, the Magic are 3 games under .500 against teams with winning records. They might win a couple games at home, but I don’t see them stealing a game in Chicago.

As for a Boston-Miami matchup, I know who I’d want to win, but I’m much less certain who would win. I dislike the Celtics more than most NBA teams, but I would slap Danny Ainge in the face if I saw him right now. Why? Because if there’s any team I dislike more than Boston, it’s Miami, and before the Kendrick Perkins trade there was no way the Heat were getting past the Celtics. Now I’m very scared that the Heat are going to defeat Boston, and if that happens they could go all the way. Boston did win 3 of 4 against Miami this season, and they held out their starters in the only loss. But the Celtics seemed to lose their edge following the shock of the Perkins trade, and we know the Heat will be hungry. All I can say is that I’ll be rooting against them. They may win the next 4 championships. I just don’t want them to win in this first year.

Conference Finals

If Boston can get to the conference finals they will have done enough to show me that they have recovered from the Perkins trade. With their experience and their 4 stars against Chicago’s 1 star, I would take them to beat the Bulls. But I would expect a very tight series. Just as tight as the first round series between the Bulls and C’s in 2009.

Western Conference

First Round

If there’s going to be a first round upset in the NBA playoffs this year, it’s going to happen in the West. The top teams have weaknesses just like the favorites in the East, but unlike the East, the West has more than 4 good teams. #6-8 seeds in the West all have better records than the East’s #5 seed. And the lower seeds in the West have been through playoff battles before, unlike most of the lower seeded teams in the East. I know many people are picking at least 1 upset in the first round in the West, but I am not.

Despite the fact that San Antonio finished 15 games ahead of Memphis in the standings, there are some reasons for Grizzlies fans to think they can make a series of it. The Spurs struggled down the stretch. It seemed like perhaps their age had caught up with them. Then in the final game of the year, Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow. The Spurs lost at Memphis twice last month. And while it would seem illogical that the Grizzlies would be able to pull something like this off without their best player, they were 5 games over .500 before Rudy Gay got hurt and they are 5 games over .500 since. All that said, there’s no way the Spurs of the Popovich/Duncan era lose in the first round as a #1 seed.

Like the Spurs, the Lakers finished the year sliding and then saw one of their key players suffer a scary injury in the final game. It appears that Andrew Bynum will be fine and won’t miss any games. It wouldn’t have mattered against New Orleans anyway. The Hornets’ chances of doing anything in the playoffs died when David West was knocked out for the season. I really don’t even think they will be competitive. If Chris Paul had his heart in it they might be able to make a series of it, but he doesn’t. Despite his unconvincing statements to the contrary, it’s fairly obvious that Paul has decided that he’s not going to get anywhere with the Hornets and that he’ll be moving on as soon as he can. He’s simply not all-in.

Portland is this year’s trendy team to pull off an upset in the first round. This isn’t surprising, considering that they are playing the Mavs, who always seem to disappoint come playoff time. But that call seems a bit too trendy to me at the moment. The Mavs are due to come through in the playoffs. The Blazers were 4 games under .500 against teams with winning records. I think this will be a very tight series. The Mavs lost twice in Portland this season and I definitely think the Blazers will play well at home, but they are just 18-23 on the road. This should be a very competitive and very interesting series.

The OKC-Denver series is also intriguing. On the one hand, you have people saying that the Thunder could end up being the team that comes out of the West and plays for the championship. On the other hand, they have a tricky first round series against a Nuggets team that is very tough to beat at home and is playing with house money. When the Nuggets finally pulled the trigger on the Melo deal it looked like a possible contender in the West had been knocked off the board. Instead, it seems to have freed them. Whether or not it’s true, you can bet that George Karl has those players believing that they are better without Anthony. It would be neat if the Nuggets made a run in the playoffs and I do think they’ll make it hard on OKC, but in the end I like the Thunder to win. They won 3 of 4 against the Nuggets this season, including once in Denver, where the Nugs lost only 8 times all year.

Second Round

One of the reasons that I’m not on board with the “OKC as possible Finals team” buzz is that if they do get through a tough series with the Nuggets, I do not see them beating the Spurs. Their legs might be stronger than the aging Spurs, but they have yet to win a playoff series, and it seems like it would be a big leap for them to now win their first series and then upset the 4-time champions and #1 seed in the second round. San Antonio was 3-0 against the Thunder this season, including a win in OKC. The Spurs lost just 5 games at home all season.

It’s about time for Dirk’s Mavericks to meet Kobe’s Lakers in the playoffs, don’t you think? Despite the fact that both teams are perennial playoff participants, they have not squared off in the postseason since 1988. These two teams had very similar records during the regular season, with the Lakers winning 2 of 3 head-to-head matchups (1-1 at Dallas). I think it would be an interesting series, but I actually think Portland would be a scarier opponent for LA. I don’t see them going down to the Mavs.

Conference Finals

I for one would like to see the NBA powers of the last decade go at it one more time in the conference finals before their windows shut. In 11 of the last 12 years, either the Spurs or the Lakers represented the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. They have combined to win 7 titles during that stretch. During that time, the two teams have met in the playoffs 6 times. Interestingly enough, none of those series have gone 7. This could be the year.

NBA Finals

So when I made my predictions, I ended up with the most common matchup in NBA Finals history: Celtics vs. Lakers. This would be the rubber match, at least for this era. The Celtics won convincingly in 6 games in 2008. Last year the Lakers won in 7, with Kendrick Perkins unable to go in the finale. The Celtics made it public and obvious that they felt they would have won if they had their big man. Unfortunately for Celtics fans, they’ll never get to see a true rematch, as Perkins was dealt away in a stunning and controversial deadline deal.

That sucks for everyone who wanted to see that rematch. But if these two meet in this year’s finals, the attention will shift to another Boston big man. A Lakers-Celtics Finals with Shaq playing for Boston could cause a reversal of the Earth’s axis a year before 2012. Of course, even if these two teams do meet, there’s a decent chance that we will again be talking about an injured Boston center, as Shaq’s body may not last through 4 playoff series. Either way, I think it would take 7 games for a winner to be determined. And regardless of Shaq’s health, I believe LA would come out on top again.

Predictions

Eastern Conference

First Round

#1 Chicago over #8 Indiana (4-0)

#2 Miami over #7 Philadelphia (4-0)

#3 Boston over #6 New York (4-2)

#4 Orlando over #5 Atlanta (4-0)

Conference Semifinals

#1 Chicago over #4 Orlando (4-2)

#3 Boston over #2 Miami (4-3)

Conference Finals

#3 Boston over #1 Chicago (4-3)

Western Conference

First Round

#1 San Antonio over #4 Memphis (4-2)

#2 Los Angeles over #7 New Orleans (4-0)

#3 Dallas over #6 Portland (4-3)

#4 Oklahoma City over #5 Denver (4-3)

Conference Semifinals

#1 San Antonio over #4 Oklahoma City (4-3)

#2 Los Angeles over #3 Dallas (4-2)

Conference Finals

#2 Los Angeles over #1 San Antonio (4-3)

NBA Finals

#2 Los Angeles over #3 Boston (4-3)