2011 NBA Playoff Predictions
The NBA playoffs are about to begin again. By the time they are over we’ll be seeing “Back to school” commercials on TV. The last month of the regular season always drags on a bit too long. Then once the playoffs start, they usually take a while to get going. But once it gets good, there’s nothing better for anyone who likes basketball.
For me, one reason the NBA season seems more tedious at times than other sports is that it usually seems like only a handful of teams have a legit shot at the title, and we often know (or think we know) which teams those are by the second month of the season. Early on that seemed to be the case again this season. But there were some surprises (Chicago and San Antonio as the #1 seeds, the Perkins trade) and some of the contenders started to show signs of vulnerability. All of the sudden people are talking about this being the most wide-open postseason in years.
More than once in the last few years the buzz leading up to the playoffs has been about how great the Western Conference playoffs could be--with the #1 and #8 seeds separated by only a few games in the standings—and about Lebron and Kobe going at it in the finals. It’s never really played out that way. In 2009, 4 of the 7 Western Conference series ended in 5 games, and the only 7-game series was LA vs. Houston in the conference semis (no one thought for a half second that LA would lose that game 7). Lebron’s team went out in 6 in the conference finals against Orlando, and it should have been over in 5. Last year no series went 7 in the West and both semifinal series were sweeps. LBJ’s boys got bounced in the Eastern Conference semi’s by Boston. Don’t get me wrong: I’ve loved the playoffs in both of the last 2 years. I’m just saying that the results didn’t jive with the hype leading up to the playoffs.
This year the talk is about how wide-open things are, and this time I don’t think there’s any way the buzz could be wrong, because there just isn’t a clear cut favorite in either conference. There are doubts about the #1 seeds in both conferences. There are also doubts about the teams that were perceived to be the top contenders going into the season. We won’t be saying, “Well, things turned out how we expected,” because nobody knows what to expect.
Okay, this intro is dragging on and probably should have been wrapped up two paragraphs ago. It’s reminding me of the regular season. Let’s get to the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
First Round
Maybe the first round will be as compelling as promised in the West this year. Nobody ever expects much from the first round on the Eastern side, and with good reason. This year isn’t much different. I mean, what’s the over under on the total number of games in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs? It can’t be more than 20.5. But you know, lately there’s usually been one Eastern Conference first round series that turns out to be a bit closer than expected. Still, I don’t see any of the first round series being competitive this year.
If Miami had finished as the #1 seed I would have gone off on a tangent about the similarities between a Heat-Pacers matchup and the 2008 first round matchup of Boston-Atlanta. In fact, it’s such an interesting comparison that I’m going to go off on a tangent anyway. Think about it. You have a team going from afterthought to favorite in a matter of days during the offseason. The team does this by acquiring two stars from different teams to join with a star who has been with the franchise his entire career. This trio immediately starts to be referred to as “the Big 3.” The team is the #1 seed in the East but they’ve never gone through the playoffs together before. They draw a #8 seed team making their first playoff appearance in years, having reached the postseason despite a 37-45 record. The series goes the distance, but the #1 seed wins and then goes on to win the championship.
It sure would have made for an interesting comparison, but I won’t waste your time by going off on a tangent. There’s no way the Bulls lose a game in this series. They finished 25 games ahead of Indiana in the standings; they have a better record on the road than the Pacers do at home; and they are 37-7 against teams with losing records, while the Pacers are 13-31 against teams with winning records. In fact, the Bulls have better record against teams with winning records than the Pacers do against teams with losing records. The Bulls did lose in Indy last month, but it was in OT, and it was the second game of a back-to-back for a Chicago team playing without Carlos Boozer. The Bulls won each of the other 3 meetings this year by double digits. Chicago should cruise.
I realize that the Heat didn’t gel as quickly as they thought they would this year and that this will be their first time in the playoffs as a unit, but they really shouldn’t lose a game to Philly. Miami may have struggled late in games and against good teams this season, but they still won 58 games, and the Sixers are 41-41. The Sixers finished the season losing 5 of their last 6 games, and Miami swept the season series 3-0, winning all 3 games by at least 9 points, including opening night in Philly.
Boston-New York is the one first round series that people are rumbling about being closer than expected. Some are even predicting New York to pull off the upset. I think that’s foolishness. Closer than the other 3 series? Maybe. But New York isn’t going to win. Clearly Boston hasn’t been the same since the Perkins deal, and Shaq has logged a total of 5 minutes of playing time since February 4th. But aren’t the Celtics still much better than New York without Perkins or Shaq? Sure the atmosphere at MSG will be electric, but Boston has as good of a road record as the Knicks do at home (23-18). The Celtics have already won twice in New York this year. The C’s swept the Knicks in the regular season, 4-0, winning two of the games by double digits (I know the last game of the season didn’t mean anything but the one in New York on March 21st did). The Knicks went 28-26 before the Melo deal; 14-14 after. They are 17-24 against teams with winning records. Can the Knicks win a game or two? Probably. But they aren’t winning the series.
I happened to notice something the other day that truly surprised me. Of the 12 so-called “NBA experts” on ESPN.com, only 1 has the Hawks being swept by Orlando in the first round. I felt a twinge of hope. It was yet another example of my inner child sports fan’s remarkable resiliency. The Magic aren’t as good as they were a year ago, but they still have Dwight Howard, and my Hawks are still my Hawks. I really don’t want to get more into it than that because my inner child sports fan wants to believe. For now, suffice to say that I don’t expect we’ll win a game, much less 4.
Second Round
It’s usually in the second round that the Eastern Conference playoffs get good, and I think it will be the same this year. To be honest, if the first round plays out with the favorites winning, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the remaining 4 teams ended up in the NBA Finals. The Bulls have been the best team in the world for the last few months. The Celtics looked like the best team in the world a few months ago. The Heat looked like the best team in the world last July. The Magic haven’t looked like the best team at any point since losing in the conference finals last year, but they didn’t look like the best team in 2009 either and they upset Boston and Lebron.
I would have to take Chicago against the Magic. The Bulls have just been too good this year for me to pick them to lose to Orlando. They won 3 of 4 against the Magic this season, including both games in Orlando. Plus, the Magic are 3 games under .500 against teams with winning records. They might win a couple games at home, but I don’t see them stealing a game in Chicago.
As for a Boston-Miami matchup, I know who I’d want to win, but I’m much less certain who would win. I dislike the Celtics more than most NBA teams, but I would slap Danny Ainge in the face if I saw him right now. Why? Because if there’s any team I dislike more than Boston, it’s Miami, and before the Kendrick Perkins trade there was no way the Heat were getting past the Celtics. Now I’m very scared that the Heat are going to defeat Boston, and if that happens they could go all the way. Boston did win 3 of 4 against Miami this season, and they held out their starters in the only loss. But the Celtics seemed to lose their edge following the shock of the Perkins trade, and we know the Heat will be hungry. All I can say is that I’ll be rooting against them. They may win the next 4 championships. I just don’t want them to win in this first year.
Conference Finals
If Boston can get to the conference finals they will have done enough to show me that they have recovered from the Perkins trade. With their experience and their 4 stars against Chicago’s 1 star, I would take them to beat the Bulls. But I would expect a very tight series. Just as tight as the first round series between the Bulls and C’s in 2009.
Western Conference
First Round
If there’s going to be a first round upset in the NBA playoffs this year, it’s going to happen in the West. The top teams have weaknesses just like the favorites in the East, but unlike the East, the West has more than 4 good teams. #6-8 seeds in the West all have better records than the East’s #5 seed. And the lower seeds in the West have been through playoff battles before, unlike most of the lower seeded teams in the East. I know many people are picking at least 1 upset in the first round in the West, but I am not.
Despite the fact that San Antonio finished 15 games ahead of Memphis in the standings, there are some reasons for Grizzlies fans to think they can make a series of it. The Spurs struggled down the stretch. It seemed like perhaps their age had caught up with them. Then in the final game of the year, Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow. The Spurs lost at Memphis twice last month. And while it would seem illogical that the Grizzlies would be able to pull something like this off without their best player, they were 5 games over .500 before Rudy Gay got hurt and they are 5 games over .500 since. All that said, there’s no way the Spurs of the Popovich/Duncan era lose in the first round as a #1 seed.
Like the Spurs, the Lakers finished the year sliding and then saw one of their key players suffer a scary injury in the final game. It appears that Andrew Bynum will be fine and won’t miss any games. It wouldn’t have mattered against New Orleans anyway. The Hornets’ chances of doing anything in the playoffs died when David West was knocked out for the season. I really don’t even think they will be competitive. If Chris Paul had his heart in it they might be able to make a series of it, but he doesn’t. Despite his unconvincing statements to the contrary, it’s fairly obvious that Paul has decided that he’s not going to get anywhere with the Hornets and that he’ll be moving on as soon as he can. He’s simply not all-in.
Portland is this year’s trendy team to pull off an upset in the first round. This isn’t surprising, considering that they are playing the Mavs, who always seem to disappoint come playoff time. But that call seems a bit too trendy to me at the moment. The Mavs are due to come through in the playoffs. The Blazers were 4 games under .500 against teams with winning records. I think this will be a very tight series. The Mavs lost twice in Portland this season and I definitely think the Blazers will play well at home, but they are just 18-23 on the road. This should be a very competitive and very interesting series.
The OKC-Denver series is also intriguing. On the one hand, you have people saying that the Thunder could end up being the team that comes out of the West and plays for the championship. On the other hand, they have a tricky first round series against a Nuggets team that is very tough to beat at home and is playing with house money. When the Nuggets finally pulled the trigger on the Melo deal it looked like a possible contender in the West had been knocked off the board. Instead, it seems to have freed them. Whether or not it’s true, you can bet that George Karl has those players believing that they are better without Anthony. It would be neat if the Nuggets made a run in the playoffs and I do think they’ll make it hard on OKC, but in the end I like the Thunder to win. They won 3 of 4 against the Nuggets this season, including once in Denver, where the Nugs lost only 8 times all year.
Second Round
One of the reasons that I’m not on board with the “OKC as possible Finals team” buzz is that if they do get through a tough series with the Nuggets, I do not see them beating the Spurs. Their legs might be stronger than the aging Spurs, but they have yet to win a playoff series, and it seems like it would be a big leap for them to now win their first series and then upset the 4-time champions and #1 seed in the second round. San Antonio was 3-0 against the Thunder this season, including a win in OKC. The Spurs lost just 5 games at home all season.
It’s about time for Dirk’s Mavericks to meet Kobe’s Lakers in the playoffs, don’t you think? Despite the fact that both teams are perennial playoff participants, they have not squared off in the postseason since 1988. These two teams had very similar records during the regular season, with the Lakers winning 2 of 3 head-to-head matchups (1-1 at Dallas). I think it would be an interesting series, but I actually think Portland would be a scarier opponent for LA. I don’t see them going down to the Mavs.
Conference Finals
I for one would like to see the NBA powers of the last decade go at it one more time in the conference finals before their windows shut. In 11 of the last 12 years, either the Spurs or the Lakers represented the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. They have combined to win 7 titles during that stretch. During that time, the two teams have met in the playoffs 6 times. Interestingly enough, none of those series have gone 7. This could be the year.
NBA Finals
So when I made my predictions, I ended up with the most common matchup in NBA Finals history: Celtics vs. Lakers. This would be the rubber match, at least for this era. The Celtics won convincingly in 6 games in 2008. Last year the Lakers won in 7, with Kendrick Perkins unable to go in the finale. The Celtics made it public and obvious that they felt they would have won if they had their big man. Unfortunately for Celtics fans, they’ll never get to see a true rematch, as Perkins was dealt away in a stunning and controversial deadline deal.
That sucks for everyone who wanted to see that rematch. But if these two meet in this year’s finals, the attention will shift to another Boston big man. A Lakers-Celtics Finals with Shaq playing for Boston could cause a reversal of the Earth’s axis a year before 2012. Of course, even if these two teams do meet, there’s a decent chance that we will again be talking about an injured Boston center, as Shaq’s body may not last through 4 playoff series. Either way, I think it would take 7 games for a winner to be determined. And regardless of Shaq’s health, I believe LA would come out on top again.
Predictions
Eastern Conference
First Round
#1 Chicago over #8 Indiana (4-0)
#2 Miami over #7 Philadelphia (4-0)
#3 Boston over #6 New York (4-2)
#4 Orlando over #5 Atlanta (4-0)
Conference Semifinals
#1 Chicago over #4 Orlando (4-2)
#3 Boston over #2 Miami (4-3)
Conference Finals
#3 Boston over #1 Chicago (4-3)
Western Conference
First Round
#1 San Antonio over #4 Memphis (4-2)
#2 Los Angeles over #7 New Orleans (4-0)
#3 Dallas over #6 Portland (4-3)
#4 Oklahoma City over #5 Denver (4-3)
Conference Semifinals
#1 San Antonio over #4 Oklahoma City (4-3)
#2 Los Angeles over #3 Dallas (4-2)
Conference Finals
#2 Los Angeles over #1 San Antonio (4-3)
NBA Finals
#2 Los Angeles over #3 Boston (4-3)
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