2010 Preseason Power Rankings
1. Minnesota
2. New Orleans
3. Baltimore
4. Indianapolis
5. Dallas
6. Green Bay
7. New York Jets
8. Cincinnati
9. New England
10. San Diego
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. San Francisco
14. Pittsburgh
15. Miami
16. Tennessee
17. Philadelphia
18. Washington
19. Houston
20. Chicago
21. Arizona
22. Carolina
23. Oakland
24. Kansas City
25. Jacksonville
26. Seattle
27. Tampa Bay
28. Denver
29. Cleveland
30. Detroit
31. Buffalo
32. St. Louis
Explanation: I’ve been doing these power rankings for college and pro football for a few years now and I’ve noticed a strange trend. For some reason it seems like the NFL rankings are always harder to do than the college rankings before the start of the season, and easier to do as the season progresses. It seems like just the opposite should be the case, as there is so much turnover in college football with some players going to the draft, some players arriving as freshman, and many formerly little known players stepping up and becoming well known. In the NFL we are basically familiar with the entire universe of players. Of course there are rookies, but with so much coverage of the draft these days, we often know much more about 5th round draft picks than we do about the best player on a team from the WAC. Plus, most rookies don’t have a major impact. Still, for some reason it’s harder for me to rank NFL teams in the preseason than it is for me to rank college teams. It’s because the NFL is built for parity, while the college game naturally favors the established programs with the most tradition and the most resources. During the season, the college football rankings get a bit more difficult because 19 and 20 year olds don’t usually play at the same level from week to week. In the NFL, things may change dramatically from the start of the season to the end, but from week to week things are usually less chaotic than the college game.
You may notice that my rankings don’t always match up with my actual predictions. There are several reasons for this, but the schedule is the biggest factor. Injuries and just plain luck have a big impact on the NFL season, but the schedule has an even bigger effect. Each team plays 6 of their 16 games against division foes, 4 of their games against another division from within the conference, and 4 of their games against another division from outside the conference. Under this structure, schedules can vary dramatically in level of difficulty from one team to another. There are also things like injuries and playoff reputations to consider. And sometimes you just have to go with your gut, because history shows that there are almost always a few seemingly illogical results over the course of the NFL season.
1. Minnesota Vikings
The Good: Mercifully, the Brett Favre “will he or won’t he” saga is over for another 6 or 7 months. Now that we know Favre will be the QB for the Vikes, and not Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenthal, we can confidently install Minnesota as a certain Super Bowl contender. With Favre leading the offense last year we learned that the Vikings actually had a lot of offensive weapons. They also have an improving offensive line and one of the few elite running backs in the league. Speaking of Adrian Peterson, I have a feeling he will be motivated to fix his fumbling issues this season. Defensively the Vikings are as strong as any team in the NFL. They are solid at each level and this year they should have a better secondary. The defensive line is the backbone of the Minnesota defense, led by Jared Allen, one of the premier defensive ends in the game. The Vikes also have a very good special teams unit.
The Bad: On paper the Vikings are the best team in the NFL, but there are plenty of questions. Favre’s health has to be a major concern. Even if he doesn’t suffer a serious injury, he is a year older, and it will be hard for him to have another stellar season in his 40’s. If there are any struggles, team chemistry could become an issue. It appears that Favre doesn’t trust Brad Childress as a head coach, and while Childress was able to avoid a power struggle with Favre last season, that might not be the case in 2010. The other problem is that Favre is probably right to question Childress. At times he seems out of his league. Resentment towards Favre from the other Viking players hasn’t been an issue so far, but that could change if his level of play drops off. The Vikings made a lot of big plays last season that masked some of the problems they had offensively late in the year. There is also the question of the health of Percy Harvin. He was a big time weapon for the Vikings last season and they will miss him if he is out for any length of time.
Forecast: A lot of things went right for the Vikings last season and they may not be as fortunate in 2010. However, they are as capable as any team in the league and they should be among the best in the NFL again this year. If they can stay healthy and stay united, they could get back to the NFC Championship Game and perhaps win it all this time.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Good: While it still seems weird to think of the Saints as one of the elite teams in the NFL, at this point we have to admit that they are for real. Their offense is unstoppable at times. Drew Brees is perhaps the most accurate passer in the league when he has time, and he normally has time because he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. He has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, and with all the attention focused on containing the passing attack, the Saints are able to run the ball effectively. The Saints play an aggressive, opportunistic brand of defense, and they are able to do this because they have a strong secondary. They are well coached and at times seem to have a true strategic advantage with Sean Payton running the show.
The Bad: Like the Vikings, the Saints had a whole lot of things go their way last season. Both offensively and defensively, the Saints benefited from big plays that changed the outcome of certain games. They didn’t always dominate the action on the field the way that the score suggested. The NFC Championship Game was a perfect example, as the Saints were largely outplayed by Minnesota, but they ended up winning thanks in large part to unforced errors by the Vikings and flat out luck. The Saints made a big improvement from 2008 to 2009 and they are due to fall back to earth at least somewhat. Plus, they will now have a big target on their backs, and it will be harder to find motivation after such a magical season last year. The high risk/high reward style of defense that the Saints play worked well last season because they had good luck with turnovers, but it might not work out that way this year. The weak spot in the New Orleans defense is the line backing core, and teams have been planning and plotting all off-season for ways to exploit the Saints’ defense.
Forecast: Despite these concerns, the Saints should continue to be among the NFL’s top teams as long as they have Sean Payton and Drew Brees. They are the defending Super Bowl champs, and if they are motivated to repeat, it could be hard to keep them from doing so.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Good: The Ravens were one of the better teams in the AFC last year and they made major upgrades to their offense during the off-season. Joe Flacco will be entering his 3rd season and could be poised to take his place among the top tier of NFL QB’s. Flacco is protected by a great offensive line and surrounded by excellent backs and pass catchers. The addition of Anquan Boldin could make the Ravens one of the most feared offenses in 2010. It’s hard to find a weakness on the Baltimore squad. They have one of the great young coaches in the NFL in John Harbaugh. As always, the Ravens should have a super defense this year.
The Bad: The Ravens are not great at special teams. More importantly, age is catching up to the leaders of Baltimore’s great defense, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. They are not the dominant players they once were.
Forecast: The presence of Baltimore’s defensive leaders is still crucial to the team’s success. If Lewis and Reed can stay on the field and produce for one more year, the stars could align for Baltimore in 2010.
4. Indianapolis Colts
The Good: There have been times over the last few years when the Colts seemed ripe for a bit of slip from the ranks of the best in the NFL. But is hasn’t happened. It now appears that the Colts are prepared to maintain their place among the elite teams in the game for many years to come. Tony Dungy’s retirement had no effect on the team, and this was really not much of a surprise to the few people who are not blinded by Lord Dungy’s immaculate light of righteousness. The Colts are probably always going to be formidable as long as they have Peyton Manning and his set of pass catching threats. Defensively, the Colts are led by perhaps the best set of bookend DE’s in the league, and when Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are healthy they can be a legitimately great defensive team. The Colts also have a very good secondary, and when Bob Sanders is on the field the defense can be elite.
The Bad: Of course Mathis, Freeney, and Sanders are often not healthy, and when they aren’t on the field the Colts’ defense becomes ordinary very quickly. In addition, the Colts are consistently weak in special teams. Offensively, while Peyton Manning and the pass catchers are difficult to stop, the Indianapolis rushing attack is not very strong. And while the Colts didn’t lose anything in terms of strategic advantage when Tony Dungy quit, Jim Caldwell doesn’t bring much to the table either.
Forecast: The Colts have been a constant atop the standings throughout Manning’s career, and there’s really no reason to expect things to be different in 2010.
5. Dallas Cowboys
The Good: Because the Cowboys are always surrounded by hype and expectation, it can be easy to look for reasons why Dallas will not be good. However, when you get past the natural urge to root against them, one has to admit that they are among the most talented teams in the NFL. Despite his shortcomings, Tony Romo is not the worst guy to have taking snaps. The Boys are loaded at the skill positions on offense. The Cowboys have also built an elite defense, strong at all levels, and led by one of the best line backing corps in the game.
The Bad: The questions for Dallas are the same as always. The offensive line looks good at times but in some big games they have had problems. And of course the coaching questions are still there. Wade Phillips has yet to take a team deep into the playoffs.
Forecast: Dallas is as loaded as any team out there on paper, but they will have to prove it on the field.
6. Green Bay Packers
The Good: The Packers were one of the hottest teams in the NFL going into the playoffs last season but they were shocked by the Cardinals in the first round. Aaron Rodgers is one of the most capable passers in the game and he has a number of talented receivers to throw to. Green Bay is also very strong defensively; in fact it was the defense that led the Pack on their 2nd half surge last year. The Packers have one of the best secondaries around, led by last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, Charles Woodson.
The Bad: While Rodgers and his receivers are dangerous, the Green Bay offensive line has at times struggled to give the QB time. And as good as the passing offense can be, Green Bay is fairly limited as a rushing team. The Packers do not have a great special teams unit. Green Bay made a big improvement in wins last season and they may take a step back this season. They are unlikely to be as fortunate in the turnover department this season.
Forecast: The Packers are a team on the rise, and they are a legit challenge to the Vikings in the NFC North.
7. New York Jets
The Good: Somehow the 2nd team from the Big Apple has become the most talked about team in the National Football League. At least once a day we are given some sort of update on Rex Ryan and the drama going on at Jets camp. It’s not all hype. The Jets had the best defense in the league last season and they made the AFC Championship Game. Mark Sanchez should be better in his 2nd season but he’s still very young. They have a great running game with a couple of good backs and an excellent offensive line. And they have really upgraded the receiver position since the start of last year.
The Bad: There are some questions. For starters, we don’t know how the Jets will handle the expectations, and we do know that everyone will be gunning for them. There is also the issue of Darrelle Revis’ holdout, which doesn’t seem like it will end anytime soon. That’s going to be a problem, as Revis is virtually universally considered to be by far the best cover corner in the game. In addition, one of Sanchez’s new weapons, Santonio Holmes, will begin the season serving a suspension. And while the Jets are rock solid defensively, they aren’t great at special teams.
Forecast: There’s a chance that the Jets go down as a big bust. It shouldn’t end up that way, however, as they have a ton of talent.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
The Good: The coverage of the Bengals has also been a bit puzzling. They’ve basically decided to be the modern version of the old Oakland Raiders, signing any and every player available who has ever had a history of arrests, confrontations, attitude problems, psychological issues, or any other sort of behavioral problem. Once you get past all of that, you remember that the Bengals were actually a pretty damn good team last year. With Carson Palmer’s injury problems now seemingly behind him and a good offensive line protecting him, Cinci should have a decent offense. They were a good running team last year and they have some talented (and mouthy) receivers. And amazingly defense is now a strength for the Bengals.
The Bad: It’s still dicey to predict big things from the Bengals, simply because they are the Bengals. I still question the coaching of Marvin Lewis and whether he will be able to handle this group if they go through a rough patch. The Bengals don’t play good special teams, and they are a bit injury prone at some key positions (quarter back, running back). They could be due for a step back after making a big leap up last year.
Forecast: If things go Cinci’s way they could again be a playoff contender.
9. New England Patriots
The Good: I have to admit that I have a tendency to expect more from the Patriots than perhaps I should because of my regard for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Still, New England is always in the mix, and they could be a bit of a sleeper this year with most people now considering them the 2nd best team in the AFC East. Remember, Brady is now 2 full years removed from the knee injury, so he could be primed for a big season. Randy Moss can still be one of the most explosive weapons around, and if Wes Welker is able to come back at even 85% from his injury the Pats will be hard to stop. The offensive line is experienced and the defense and special teams should be improved.
The Bad: Welker’s health is certainly one of the major questions facing the Patriots. Another is the age of New England’s offensive line. Also, while Belichick is still (in my opinion) the best coach in the game, his coaching staff has been gutted over the last 7 or 8 years. And the defense is still a question mark because the Patriots have had such a major turnover on that side of the ball in recent seasons.
Forecast: I don’t think the Patriots have fallen as far as many others think. In fact, I believe that by the end of the season they will be very, very dangerous.
10. San Diego Chargers
The Good: The Chargers were 13-3 last season, but most of the news about them in this off-season has been a bit negative. If they can work out their situation with disgruntled wideouts they should again have a good offense led by Philip Rivers. The media has seized upon the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson, but in reality it is a minor issue. The Chargers drafted Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews who is a stud. San Diego’s offensive line should be improved this season and Antonio Gates will be back. San Diego is always among the leaders in special teams and they have a lot of talent on defense, especially at linebacker.
The Bad: There are reasons to expect a bit of a down year for the Chargers. They made a major improvement in wins last season from 8 to 13, so they could be due for a step back. That record was also much better than their yard per game indicated it should be, and they scored more points and allowed fewer points than their yards gained and allowed said they should have. They were sort of exposed in the playoffs against the Jets. The secondary has major questions and so does the defensive line. And they are still coached by Norv Turner.
Forecast: The Chargers are very talented, they are always in the hunt, and they play in a horrible division, so they should have another great regular season.
11. New York Giants
The Good: The G-Men come into the season flying under the radar for the first time since before their miraculous Super Bowl run in 2007. They aren’t even the most covered team in their own city anymore. But the Giants are still around to be sure. They fell from 12 wins to 8 wins last season, and they are better than an 8-8 squad, so they could be in line for a rise back to double digits. They have a strong offensive line and when their backs are healthy they have a punishing running attack. They are solid at the skill positions and Eli Manning is a capable QB. New York still has one of the best defensive lines when they are healthy and they have a good secondary.
The Bad: Injuries are a major question for the G-Men. Also, the defense has a weak spot at linebacker, and New York has lost several important assistant coaches over the last few years.
Forecast: The Giants could sneak up on people again this season, but as always it will be tough in the NFC East.
12. Atlanta Falcons
The Good: I’m obviously biased about the Birds but a lot of people think the Falcons will contend for the playoffs in the NFC again this season. The franchise got a huge monkey off of its back last season in finishing with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in team history. They managed to get to 9-7 despite some fairly bad luck with injuries. Matt Ryan will be in his 3rd year in the league and will hopefully take the next step to becoming one of the great QB’s around. The biggest key to the offense will be the health of Michael Turner, who missed most of the 2nd half of last season. The Falcons have a tough and nasty offensive line that has a lot of experience together. Ryan has plenty of weapons on offense including Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White. They are quite capable offensively and they are very well coached.
The Bad: The problem with the Falcons is the defense. There are major question marks concerning the defensive line and the secondary. The Falcons also have some special teams questions.
Forecast: Depending on how healthy the Falcons stay on defense and how their rookies and 2nd year defensive players do the Falcons could either be a very good team or just a decent team.
13. San Francisco 49ers
The Good: The Niners appear to be on the right track behind Mike Singletary. I’ll be honest, I did not think it looked good a couple of years ago when Mike was getting ratted out for mooning the players at halftime. But last year San Fran was better. The defense is solid, led by a very good front 7. They play good special teams. The offensive line is improving and that’s good news for Frank Gore and the offense. It now looks like Alex Smith might actually be able to make it as a serviceable QB in the NFL. Vernon Davis has apparently grown up enough to play up to his potential as an elite pass catching tight end, and at Michael Crabtree is going to be a star.
The Bad: For me the questions for the Niners start with Alex Smith. I’m still not totally sold on him and it’s hard to be a really good team in the NFL without a really good quarterback. And is Mike Singletary really on his way to leading the Niners out of the darkness, or was last year just a reprieve? I like their team and I think they are on the right track, but if you look at the roster they are mediocre in a few areas.
Forecast: I think if Smith keeps developing this season the Niners could be really tough. At any rate, I think they are now the best team in the very weak NFC West.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Good: The Steelers are one of the hardest teams to project going into this season. Obviously all of the doubt begins with the Ben Roethlisberger situation. Ben will be back for at least 10 of the 16 games, and with their dominant defense and Big Ben leading the show, the Steelers have a chance to win any game.
The Bad: But the Roethlisberger situation is a problem. Without him the Steelers will be playing at least the first 4 games of the season with Byron Leftwich at QB. With Pittsburgh’s leaky offensive line Leftwich is about the last guy I would want back there, although I know he has had success filling in for the Steelers before. There was another casualty of the off-season, and that was Super Bowl XLIII hero Santonio Holmes. Unlike Big Ben, Holmes is gone for good, as repeated bud smoking citations led to the Steelers sending him away. That’s actually a major loss in my mind. Hines Ward will now have to be the #1 receiver and that may not work out well, as Hinesy is getting up there in years and his health is a question. And it’s not like the Steelers have that great, bruising Steeler rushing game to fall back on. The Steelers were already poor on special teams and Holmes was a major weapon as a returner.
Forecast: Pittsburgh has some problems but they could end up bouncing back from last season. Their defense alone makes them dangerous.
15. Miami Dolphins
The Good: It was not all that surprising to see the Dolphins come back to earth last year after going from 1 to 11 wins in 2008. The Wildcat was a total media overreaction but the Dolphins do have a very good running game, especially when both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are healthy. It’s not smoke and mirrors, they have a good offensive line. I also think that they could be on to something with Chad Henne at quarterback. He looks like he could be good, and this season he has one of the great weapons in all of football in Brandon Marshall. And if Henne were to go down, the Dolphins have one of the better backups in Chad Pennington. Marshall is a head case but I think he will be okay at least in the short run.
The Bad: The problems for Miami are on defense where they have had to go through a transition period. There are a lot of uncertainties on the defensive side. The Dolphins are not great on special teams either.
Forecast: If some leaders emerge on defense the Dolphins should be a decent team again in 2010.
16. Tennessee Titans
The Good: The Titans fell off from 13 wins to 8 wins last season but they could bounce right back this year if Vince Young can make plays and avoid hurting his team. Young will obviously be helped tremendously by the best running back in the NFL (Chris Johnson) and a solid offensive line.
The Bad: It seems strange to talk about defense and offensive line as question marks for the Titans but that is the case heading into 2010. They did lose some key guys from both the OL and the defense, and they are a bit long on the tooth on the defensive side as well.
Forecast: I have a lot regard for head coach Steve Fisher, who I believe has basically been a constant overachiever in Tennessee, and I have learned to expect the Titans to at least be decent.
17. Philadelphia Eagles
The Good: A lot of people are down on the Eagles this season but I think they could surprise. The main reason I’m not as down on the Eagles as some others is that I don’t think the loss of Donovan McNabb is that big of a deal. McNabb was always capable of making the big play but he was also inconsistent. McNabb was also injury prone. Kevin Kolb hasn’t played much but he’s looked pretty good whenever he has played. The Eagles are sold on him, and that’s why that let D-Mac go. Plus, Kolb has a ton of weapons at his disposal, such as LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, and DeSean Jackson. Philly is strong in the area of special teams. The defensive line is another strength.
The Bad: On the other hand, this will be Kolb’s first time as the starter and he could have some growing pains. They had great luck with turnovers last year and that may not happen again in 2010. And while Andy Reid certainly seems to be a good personal guy, he clearly struggles with in game decisions and play calling. The Eagles defense was simply not the same last year after the death of Jim Johnson. There’s no replacing a defensive genius. Making matters worse, the Eagles have lost a lot of talent off of the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. They are also questionable at linebacker. And the Eagles still don’t have a traditional rushing game.
Forecast: The Eagles could drop off in 2010; it’s not hard to do in the NFC East. But at this point they should not be counted out.
18. Washington Redskins
The Good: It could be argued that the two most important positions in football are head coach and quarterback. With that in mind, it must be said that the Redskins have a great chance of being much better in 2010. They have gone from Jim Zorn to Mike Shanahan at head coach and from Jason Campbell to Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Obviously they should at least be much better at those 2 key spots. They are still figuring things out under Shanahan but he’s got much more to work with than a coach normally might when taking over a 4-12 team. They were much better than that record suggests last year and they should easily improve. Washington has a very good secondary and some talent at all levels on defense. The most talented defensive player for the Skins is probably Albert Haynesworth, but it remains to be seen whether he will be willing to play at his highest level for Washington. If he does give all out effort, he could be dominant again.
The Bad: Despite the addition of McNabb, the Skins are still a bit limited offensively. Their offensive line is still in rebuilding mode and their running backs are old and injury prone. They don’t have much at receiver either. McNabb is going from an offense that had as much big play potential as any team in the league, to an offense with almost no big play threats. Special teams is also an issue for the Skins.
Forecast: If Washington keeps McNabb healthy and Haynesworth shows up this season the Skins could challenge for the postseason. At the very least they will be a lot better than last year.
19. Houston Texans
The Good: A lot of people thought that the Texans would take the next step last season and get to the postseason for the first time. After back to back 8-8 seasons, the Texans did get their first winning record, finishing 9-7, but they were still unable to really put it all together. Somewhat surprisingly, Gary Kubiak kept his job and will get at least another shot at taking Houston to the playoffs. Matt Schaub rewarded Houston’s confidence in him last season by throwing for 4770 yards and 29 TD while completing 67.9 percent of his passes. Helping Schaub led the NFL in passing yards was Andre Johnson, who caught 101 passes and led the NFL in receiving yards with 1569. Johnson is truly a stud receiver when healthy. Mario Williams is still one of the more talented rush ends in the game, and Brian Cushing was the Rookie Defensive Player of the Year at linebacker.
The Bad: Unfortunately for Kubiak, I’m not sure this year’s Texans team is even as strong as last year’s underachieving team. Offensive line is still a big question for Houston and that makes the chances of Schaub starting every game again not a sure thing. Johnson also must be healthy for Houston’s offense to be elite. They don’t have much to speak of in terms of a rushing attack. On the other side of the ball, the secondary is a gaping hole. Also, Mario Williams looked primed to be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate last year but instead he was hampered by injury and took a step back. Plus, Cushing will be suspended for the first 4 games of this season.
Forecast: Houston should be decent again, but they face a tougher schedule, and I don’t think this will be the year they get to the playoffs.
20. Chicago Bears
The Good: There are some reasons to think the Bears could have a better year this season. Jay Cutler’s first year in the Windy City was a bit of a disaster, so the Bears brought in Mike Martz to run the offense. The Bears also made one of the biggest acquisitions of the off-season, getting DE Julius Peppers. With Peppers on board and Brian Urlacher healthy, the Bears should have a very formidable front 7. Chicago still plays good special teams, despite the end of Devin Hester’s reign as the game’s best return man.
The Bad: Martz may eventually help Cutler succeed in Chicago but it’s unlikely to be a quick fix. And how will Martz end up getting along with Cutler? How will he get along with Lovie Smith for that matter? And Martz isn’t dealing with an offense that has the talent of the Greatest Show on Turf or even the Detroit Lions. There aren’t many weapons on the offensive side for Chicago. The receivers and running backs are below average. In addition, the Bears offensive line is a weak spot. I think Cutler is going to struggle again. On the other side of the ball the Bears are vulnerable in the secondary. And Lovie Smith is a somewhat questionable in-game coach in my opinion.
Forecast: The Bears should be a decent team this season but I don’t see them taking a major step forward.
21. Arizona Cardinals
The Good: Incredibly, the Cardinals come into the 2010 season as two time defending division champions. That’s ridiculous. The Cards have gotten a scare early in preseason, as Larry Fitzgerald is a bit banged up. Fitz must play for the Cards to be good, as he is the best receiver in the game when he is 100%. The Cards have some talent on offense, defense, and in the special teams department.
The Bad: I think most people are expecting the Cards to take a step back in 2010 and I have to agree. The loss of Kurt Warner is enormous. Matt Leinart may end up being a decent QB but he is not Warner and he never will be. In my opinion, he’s a bit of a spoiled punk bitch. The Cardinals also lost Anquan Boldin this off-season, taking one of their offensive weapons away. Arizona actually lost a ton this off-season. Along with Warner and Boldin, the Cards lost players from their offensive line, the defense, and special teams.
Forecast: Arizona still has a lot of talent and they are used to winning now. They also play in a weak division. But I don’t think Arizona will be anywhere near the team they have been over the two previous seasons.
22. Carolina Panthers
The Good: The Panthers fell way off last year and they could bounce back this season. They finally made the decision to set Jake Delhomme adrift and they still have the best pair of running backs in the NFL and a good offensive line. I also have a high regard for the abilities of John Fox. Inexplicably, Fox has been on the so-called “hot seat” at times over the last few years, but when the Panthers have disappointed it has often been injuries and suicidal QB play that has been the culprit. Some might scoff but I think Fox has been an overachiever.
The Bad: While Delhomme had to go, the QB’s currently on the Carolina roster are either short on talent or experience. The attitude and commitment of Julius Peppers was questioned at times but with him gone the Carolina defensive line looks like one of the worst in the league. Defense is a major question for Carolina going into this season. The Panthers also have one of the worst special teams units in the game.
Forecast: Fox is a great coach and Carolina’s running game alone will make them a formidable opponent, but I don’t see a major bounce back year coming in 2010.
23. Oakland Raiders
The Good: I may have the Raiders ranked a little higher than a lot of others, but they were better than 5 or 6 teams last season, and the subtraction of JaMarcus Russell should be enough alone to move them ahead of a few more teams. It sounds strange to talk about Jason Campbell as a major upgrade at quarterback, but Russell was the worst quarterback in the entire National Football League. Oakland has a decent set of linebackers and a pretty good secondary. They are also very solid in the special teams department.
The Bad: I doubt the Raiders will ever again be among the best in the NFL until Al Davis finally lets go. I don’t think you can be overly critical of Tom Cable but it would also be hard to call him an asset at head coach. While the offense should be a lot less impotent with Campbell at QB, they still have no line, and very little in the backfield and at receiver. On the other side of the ball, the defensive line is a liability.
Forecast: The Raiders have shocked some of the better teams in the NFL in recent years, and if they could play that way all the time they could flirt with a .500 record, as they do play in the weak AFC West. I don’t see that happening in 2010, but they ought to be able to end their streak of 7 consecutive seasons with at least 11 losses.
24. Kansas City Chiefs
The Good: For some reason a fair amount of people are claiming the Chiefs will make a big improvement this year. There is some rationality behind this. The Chiefs did play better towards the end of last season and they were 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less. Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel are now the coordinators for the franchise that can truly be called “New England Midwest.” Matt Cassel has now started for essentially 2 full seasons. They are improved at running back and they play good special teams.
The Bad: I’m still skeptical of Todd Haley as a head coach. The offensive line is still a major issue and the Chiefs don’t have a lot of pass catching weapons. They should have one of the worst defenses again in 2010.
Forecast: I think the Chiefs will definitely be better but I don’t see a dramatic breakthrough. They were awful last season and they’ll be less awful this year, but they still won’t be very good.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Good: Maurice Jones Drew remains one of the more versatile and dynamic backs in the NFL.
The Bad: The Jags don’t have all that much more to brag about. Quite frankly, I’m not sure what’s going on with these franchise. Jack Del Rio seemed to have worn out his welcome years ago, and yet he will return for an 8th season. The fan support is perhaps the worst in the country. I wonder what the atmosphere and morale of the team is at this point. David Garrard has had some success with the Jags in the past but he’s not one of the better QB’s in the game. There’s not much for him to work with aside from MJD. His offensive line is weak and the receivers are lacking. Defense will also be a question for the Jags this season, as the secondary will likely be a major problem. The Jags are also poor at special teams.
Forecast: I think the Jags will be about as good as they have been the last couple of years, which is to say below mediocre but not awful.
26. Seattle Seahawks
The Good: So Pete Carroll took over as head coach and the Seahawks suddenly went from one of the most ignored and anonymous franchises in the league to one of great interest for people in the press. Carroll is an upgrade at coach over Jim Mora Jr. and he might be the right guy for a team needed inspiration and a lift in morale. They also got high marks from “experts” for their draft and post-draft off-season moves.
The Bad: Unfortunately, the roster that Carroll inherited had less talent than some of his USC squads. Plus, Carroll was not a smashing success in either of his 2 previous jobs at the NFL level, and he’s been out of the game for more than a decade. Quarterback is still a major issue with Matt Hasselback’s health still a question mark and Charlie Whitehurst being Charlie Whitehurst. They have nothing at running back or receiver. The offensive line is not very good. The defensive line is weak and the secondary is vulnerable.
Forecast: The Seahawks do have a nice homefield advantage, and they play in a weak division, and they will play an easy schedule, but they don’t have many assets on the roster.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Good: The Bucs should be better in 2010. To begin with, they weren’t quite as bad as they seemed last year, and they should improve just with better luck. Josh Freeman will be in his 2nd year as quarterback and he is talented. Tampa still has a decent secondary and they play special teams well.
The Bad: Other than Freeman, the Bucs don’t have much talent at the skill positions on offense. While the secondary remains strong, Tampa’s front 7 is a major weakness. And I personally think Raheem Morris is at least one level over his head.
Forecast: The Bucs won’t be pushovers most of the time but they won’t be very good either.
28. Denver Broncos
The Good: I’m a bit biased because I’ve come to hate the Broncos with a passion. That being said, it’s not really a stretch to expect Denver to suck this season. I thought they were going to suck last year but they started the season 6-0. Then reality kicked in and they lost 8 of 10. Denver’s secondary is still good but there aren’t many other strengths.
The Bad: The Broncos have lost a ton of talent over the last few years. Their biggest weapon, Brandon Marshall, is now gone, and they have the limited Kyle Orton at QB. Eddie Royal is a solid receiver but he could feel the absence of Marshall as much as Orton. Knowshon Moreno is talented but undersized and he’s a liability as a pass blocker. Making matters worse, Denver’s offensive line is in rebuilding mode. The major weakness on defense is at defensive line. Now that Elvis Dumervil is out for the year you have to say that linebacker is a bit of a problem spot for the Broncos as well. Denver does not play special teams well. And I really believe that the guy running the ship in Denver is a buffoon. Josh McDaniel’s draft this season was an exercise in idiocy in my opinion. That little publicity stunt they staged in drafting Tim Tebow in the first round is not going to help them much on the field this season. In fact I don’t think he will ever help them much other than as an occasional gimmick or as a short yardage runner.
Forecast: Denver has the advantage of playing at high altitude and they play in a garbage division, but they should be one of the worst teams in the league this year.
29. Cleveland Browns
The Good: I think the Browns are in better hands these days with Mike Holmgren coming aboard in the same capacity as Bill Parcels with the Dolphins. That could become a trend around the league. Cleveland had horrible luck with turnovers in 2009 and they will most likely be more fortunate this year. The Browns have a definite strength at offensive line and that can make a lot of things possible offensively. And Cleveland has perhaps the best special teams unit in the NFL.
The Bad: The Browns went on a stunning win streak late last season that saved Eric Mangini’s job. Unfortunately, I think the Browns would have been better off letting Mangini go. The Browns won more games than they probably should have based on their yards gained vs. yards allowed, not to mention the fact that they won the majority of their games over teams who had more or less packed it in. That could say something good for Mangini, but it also probably means that they were closer to the team that started 1-11 (with a 6-3 win over Buffalo) than they team that won their last 4 games. Jake Delhomme could end up being a positive at quarterback, as he is definitely experienced and tough, but he could also end up floundering. As we all know, Delhomme has a tendency to make mistakes, and that will be devastating for an offense that has a lot of trouble moving the ball and scoring points. They are limited at running back and receiver. On the other side, the Browns are a disaster. They will again struggle to stop offenses in 2010.
Forecast: I think the Browns could actually be slightly better overall this season, but they still play in a very tough division. I expect it to be another miserable year for Browns fans, and I don’t expect Mangini to survive this time.
30. Detroit Lions
The Good: Detroit should take another baby step forward this season. They were crushed by turnovers last season and that should improve. Matt Stafford will be a 2nd year QB and he and Calvin Johnson should eventually be a potent passing tandem. While it might take some time for Ndamukong Suh to find his way in the NFL, I believe he will be a dominant force at some point.
The Bad: The Lions are still a long way from moving out of the bottom of the NFL. The offensive line is not good and is going to limit anything that Stafford could do. They don’t have a running game. Defensively the Lions are terrible at linebacker and in the secondary. They do not play special teams well either.
Forecast: Detroit will be slightly better but they’ll mostly be the same old Lions in 2010.
31. Buffalo Bills
The Good: The Bills were 6-10 last season and they could easily have finished at 8-8 if they hadn’t gone 1-3 in games decided by 3 points or less. The Bills have a good secondary and a good special teams unit. They have some talent at running back.
The Bad: I think the Bills are in trouble. They seem to be heading the wrong way. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football. That basically negates any strength they might have with Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, and CJ Spiller in the backfield. There isn’t a starting QB on the roster, and the most capable one (Trent Edwards) has a history of concussions and that won’t get any better behind this line. The Bills have one of the weaker receiving groups as well. The Bills front 7 on defense is very poor. And this is just the roster. Don’t forget that they also settled on Chan Gailey as the new head coach. Both coordinators are new. Oh yeah, and the Bills play in the AFC East, are facing a nightmarish schedule, and will have to play one of their home games in Toronto.
Forecast: So, who’s #1 on Mel Kiper’s early big board?
32. St. Louis Rams
The Good: The Rams are almost guaranteed to improve this season, although that’s not really a compliment, as they virtually can’t get any worse. The Rams had back luck in a number of areas last season, including turnovers, and so they will likely be more fortunate this year. The Rams do play good special teams and they have a legit weapon in Steven Jackson when he is healthy.
The Bad: There was a point last year when I was watching a Rams game, and I realized that they had more guys I had never heard of getting regular playing time than any NFL team I had ever watched. It was like some old computer game that got the rights to the team names, colors, and logos, but not the rights to use the players’ likes and images so they had to use fictitious names. There’s still not much talent on the Rams roster. I have never been big on Sam Bradford’s prospects as an NFL QB but at least he makes them more talented. However, the Rams should not even think about having Bradford be the main starting QB this season. For starters, he’s not that well prepared for NFL style defenses and for running an NFL offense. He rarely got touched at Oklahoma and yet he still proved to be brittle and easily broken. The majority of the time he faced no pressure and threw to targets that were wide open. Now he joins a team with an absolutely brutal offensive line and no pass catchers. His confidence and his safety will be in jeopardy if they send him out there to start the year. The Rams are even worse on defense. They are poor at all levels of the defense: defensive line, linebacker, and secondary.
Forecast: The Rams are the worst team in the NFL. They may not end up with the worst record, as they play in a weak division, but that will only end up hurting them because they could really use another #1 pick.
