The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 1 Betting Lines

Week 1 Betting Lines

As always I will be making picks each week of the college football season this year. However, I’m going to do things a little differently this season. I always end up betting on each game just so that I have some interest in every score. In the interest of saving money, this year I’m going to pick every game that has a spread each week of the season on this blog. I’m still going to designate the 10 biggest games of each week, and for those games I will make comments. For the rest of the games I will just make a pick. If I’m picking an underdog to not only cover but win straight up I will specify that I am going with the upset. As always I will be getting all lines from Covers.com.

Week 1 Preview: There are a number of interesting games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday of this first week. Several of the games are being played at neutral sites. As always there are quite a few mismatches in the opening week. In fact, many of the games this weekend will not have legit spreads, as there are plenty of FCS teams getting paid to scrimmage the big boys. However, there are some fairly big week 1 matchups this year. As you might expect, there is a ton of movement on these lines, as there is so much unknown going into week 1. These lines may look very different by kickoff time.

Thursday

Game 1: Pittsburgh (+3) @ Utah

Pick: Utah covers

Comment: The last and only meeting between these two teams was in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl when Utah smashed Pitt, 35-7, as the first non-BCS conference team to play in a BCS bowl. Pitt has struggled early in the season under Dave Wannstedt, and the Panthers will be playing with an inexperienced quarterback. The Utes are 44-8 at home since 2001, and they have won 17 straight home games. Utah is an astonishing 15-0 vs. BCS teams in non-road games since 2001. And the Utes will have a QB who started the last 5 games of last season.

Saturday

Game 2: Illinois (+11) vs. Missouri (St. Louis)

Pick: Missouri covers

Comment: The Tigers have won all 5 games in this rivalry since the series moved to St. Louis in 2002, by an average of 13 points. Neither team has been great against the spread in recent years but Mizzu has beaten the spread against Illinois in each of the last 3 seasons. The one issue is that Mizzu’s leading rusher Derrick Washington has been suspended due to sexual assault charges.

Game 3: Kentucky (-3.5) @ Louisville

Pick: Kentucky covers

Comment: After losing 7 of 8 to the Cardinals, the Wildcats have now won 3 straight over their in-state rivals. 2 of the last 3 have been barn burners, but the last game in Louisville was a 27-2 Kentucky beat down. Kentucky was 3-1 on the road last season and 4-0 against the spread on the road. Both teams have first year coaches but they are not strangers. Joker Phillips had been the coach in waiting at Kentucky for the last 2 years, and Charlie Strong was a defensive coordinator in the SEC for over a decade prior to taking the job at Louisville.

Game 4: Connecticut (+3) @ Michigan

Pick: U Conn pulls off the upset

Comment: U Conn is just 6-6 on the road over the last 2 seasons but that has actually been a step up. They went 6-0 ATS on the road last year and they were 3-0 in non-conference road games. They are 2-0 vs. the Big Ten (but both against Indiana). There have been many stunning developments during Michigan’s recent fall from the ranks of the best in college football. Among those is the fact that Michigan had won 16 of 17 home openers prior to losing back to back home openers to Appalachian State and Utah in 2007 and 2008. The Wolverines are just 7-8 at home under Rich Rodriguez and 5-9 ATS at home (that doesn’t include the loss to App State when there was no line!).

Game 5: Purdue (+11.5) @ Notre Dame

Pick: Purdue beats the spread

Comment: Purdue has lost 11 of 12 at South Bend (only win came in 2004). Purdue nearly won last season, and the Boilermakers defeated the Irish in 2007. Purdue was 0-5 on the road last year. Notre Dame was 8-5 at home the last 2 years but just 5-8 ATS at home. The Irish were just 1-7 ATS as favorites last year. Before last year’s 3 point contest, the previous 6 matchups had been decided by an average of 17 points, with no game closer than 13 points. Still, my heart tells me that the Irish will struggle.

Game 6: Washington (+3) @ BYU

Pick: Washington beats the spread

Comment: This could be one of the most interesting games of the opening weekend. The last meeting was certainly interesting, as Washington nearly pulled off a miraculous win, only to be screwed over by the refs on a bogus unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. The hideous flag on a last second touchdown run by Jake Locker led to the Huskies having to take a long extra point that was blocked, giving the Cougars a 28-27 win. The Huskies never recovered. Locker is now a senior and the Huskies are looking to take the next step after improving from 0-12 to 5-7 last year. They have still lost 12 straight and 14 of 15 on the road. They were just 2-8 ATS on the road over the last 2 years. They have lost their first game away from home in 6 of the last 7 seasons. BYU is 22-2 at home since 2006 but the Cougars have not had as much success against BCS teams as their instate rivals from Salt Lake have had. And this time Washington has a big time QB edge. It’s too close to call.

Game 7: Oregon State (+13.5) vs. TCU (Arlington)

Pick: Oregon State beats the spread

Comment: TCU is 9-2 vs. BCS teams since 2005 (with the only 2 losses coming at Texas and at Oklahoma). The Horned Frogs have gone 16-8 ATS over the last 2 years. This spread seems a bit high, despite the fact that TCU is a legit national power and will have a major edge in the QB matchup.

Game 8: LSU (-3) vs. UNC (Atlanta)

Pick: LSU covers

Comment: This is the most interesting game of opening week in my opinion. LSU has been a team on the decline over the last couple of seasons, while the Tar Heels come into this season with 19 returning starters and one of the most talented defenses in recent memory. However, the Tar Heels are not experienced in big games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are used to playing big games, and they absolutely love the Georgia Dome. LSU is 6-1 at the Dome since 2001, and their fans will have a major edge in the stadium for this one. The Tigers have won 12 of their last 13 openers, and 13 straight September games.

Game 9: Cincinnati (+2.5) @ Fresno State

Pick: Fresno State covers

Comment: This is a tough one to call. Last year the Bulldogs hung around but eventually lost at Cinci, 28-20. The Bearcats are playing under a new head coach but they were 16-3 on the road over the last 3 years, and 7-1 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 years. Fresno State has won 10 of their last 11 home openers. The Bulldogs always rise to the challenge of playing BCS foes, but they often come up short in the end.

Monday

Game 10: Boise State (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech (Landover)

Pick: Boise State covers

Comment: This is clearly the biggest game of week 1. Boise State has played very well against BCS opponents in recent years, but this will be a different experience for the Broncos, as they will actually be favored and will have all the pressure. Virginia Tech has a number of question marks this season and they have struggled early in recent years. Virginia Tech should have the edge in the crowd, but Boise State is very experienced and very talented.

Other Games

Thursday

Marshall (+28.5) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)
Minnesota (-3) @ Middle Tennessee State (MTS pulls off the upset)
Southern Mississippi (+14) @ South Carolina (Southern Miss beats the spread)
Northern Illinois (+4) @ Iowa State (NIU pulls off the upset)
Florida Atlantic (+14.5) @ UAB (FAU beats the spread)
USC (-21) @ Hawaii (USC covers)

Friday

Arizona (-14.5) @ Toledo (Toledo beats the spread)

Saturday

Miami (Ohio) (+35) @ Florida (Florida covers)
Western Michigan (+22.5) @ Michigan State (Michigan State covers)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+28) @ Georgia (Georgia covers)
Colorado (-12) vs. Colorado State (Denver) (Colorado State beats the spread)
North Texas (+23.5) @ Clemson (Clemson covers)
UCLA (+2) @ Kansas State (KSU covers)
Texas (-29) @ Rice (Texas covers)
New Mexico (+34) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)
Syracuse (-8.5) @ Akron (Akron beats the spread)
Washington State (+15.5) @ Oklahoma State (Okie State covers)
Utah State (+34) @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma covers)
Bowling Green (+14) @ Troy (BG beats the spread)
San Jose State (+38.5) @ Alabama (Bama covers)
Memphis (+21.5) @ Mississippi State (Miss State covers)
Army (-9.5) @ Eastern Michigan (Army covers)
Western Kentucky (+37.5) @ Nebraska (Nebraska covers)
Arkansas State (+31) @ Auburn (Auburn covers)
Northwestern (-5.5) @ Vanderbilt (NW covers)
Wisconsin (-20.5) @ UNLV (UNLV beats the spread)

Sunday

Tulsa (-8) @ East Carolina (Tulsa covers)
SMU (+14) @ Texas Tech (SMU beats the spread)

Monday

Navy (-6.5) vs. Maryland (Baltimore) (Navy covers)