The Braves Blog: Houston Series Preview

After a successful week at home, the Braves will go back on the road this week with the Phillies still right behind them. Last week’s home stand would have seemed a lot better had the 2 games that the Braves lost not been heart breakers. Still, the Braves went 5-2 against the Mets and Giants, and they hung on to their lead in the NL East. The Phillies actually got it down to a game at the end of play on Friday, but the Braves managed to push the lead back to 2 by the end of the weekend. The NL East race is looking more and more like a 2-team race each day, as the Mets are now 9 games back, and the Marlins are currently 9.5 out.

Because the Phillies have been on such a great roll recently it has actually seemed like the Braves have been playing worse than they really have been. In reality, the Braves have been treading water. The Braves are now 64-47 (.577) and they have finally gotten back to a season high 17 games over .500. They are now 12-11 since the All-Star break (12-12 in their last 24 games) and 5-3 in August.

Unfortunately the Braves now have to go back out on the road where they are just 25-32 (.439) on the season. Due to offensive problems, the Braves are having to play a ton of low scoring, tight games. They are now under .500 in 1-run games (16-17) and extra inning affairs (5-6). All of the close losses and all of the work for the bullpen may catch up to the Braves at some point, especially if they don’t start scoring more runs. They need to start playing better on the road as well. Hopefully it will start this week against the Astros.

Houston Series Preview

2010 has been a lost year for the Astros. They started out losing their first 8 games. They won 8 of 10 to get back to 2 games under .500, but then went on another 8 game losing skid, and this time there was no hot streak to follow. They are now 47-63 (.427) and in 4th place in the NL Central, 16 games out of 1st. They have been outscored by 111 this season. The Astros have played much better at home, where they are 26-29 (.473). The Astros have been okay in close games. They are 10-12 in 1-run games and a freakish 6-2 in extra inning contests. However, the Stros have really struggled in blowout games. In games decided by 5 or more runs, the Astros are 9-24.

Despite seeing a number of their best players traded away, the Astros have been playing better lately. At the end of play on May 29th the Astros were a woeful 16-33. Since then they have actually gone 31-30. They are 11-10 since the All-Star break, and they had won 7 in a row before dropping their last 4 games heading into this series.

The Braves met the Astros early on in the year and used a 3 game sweep of Houston in Atlanta to save their season. The Braves had lost 9 straight to fall into last place in the East at 8-14 when Houston came to town for a 3 game series beginning April 30th. The Bravos used the Astros to regain some confidence, outscoring Houston 21-4 over the 3 games, winning by scores of 4-2, 10-1, and 7-1. It was Atlanta’s first 3 game sweep of the season.

The Astros struggle in most areas of the game, but their anemic offense is their most glaring weak spot. The Stros are 15th in the NL in runs per game; 16th in homers; 16th in walks; 15th in batting; 16th in OBP; 16th in Slugging; and 16th in OPS. There are a couple of things that the Astros do well on offense. They make a ton of contact and they have speed. They have the fewest strikeouts of any team in the NL and they are 5th in Stolen Bases. They are also 5th in the NL with a 74% success rate on stolen base attempts.

The Astros aren’t quite as bad at pitching as they are at scoring runs, but they’re still pretty bad. They are 12th in the NL runs allowed per game; 13th in ERA; and 13th in WHIP. They are 11th in the NL in starting pitching ERA and tied for 11th in Quality Starts. They are 13th in the NL in bullpen ERA and tied for 9th in Saves. However, they are 4th in the NL in Save Percentage (74%).

Houston has not been a great fielding team either. They are tied for 7th in the NL in errors, but 10th in Fielding% and 15th in Defensive Efficiency. Houston’s closer is Matt Lindstrom, but he has been suffering from back stiffness recently and was shelled in his last outing. Houston’s best starting pitcher (Roy Oswalt) was traded away and replaced by J.A. Happ. Their lineup lost Lance Berkman, but little known Chris Johnson has been powering the Houston order in recent days.

Monday

Mike Minor vs. Bud Norris

Braves fans will be watching intently on Monday night, rookie left hander Mike Minor makes his first big league appearance. With Kris Medlen suffering a season ending injury, many depressed Braves fans were encouraged by the front office’s decision to bring up Minor rather than going back to Kenshin Kawakami. Now we’ll find out if the rookie is indeed a better option. The Braves drafted Minor out of Vanderbilt with the 7th pick in the 2009 draft. At the time, the selection of Minor with the 7th pick was criticized by many around the game. Some analysts felt that the Braves had taken Minor earlier than he should have gone because they knew they could sign him easily and would not have to offer him a big signing bonus. It was thought that Minor’s “ceiling” was as a middle of the rotation starter.

So far at least, Minor is making the Braves look good and the so-called experts look bad. The biggest difference between the Mike Minor who has dominated in the minors and the guy who those experts thought he would be has been his number of strikeouts. The guys who thought Minor was a reach at #7 expected him to be a guy who “pitched to contact.” But ever since becoming a professional Minor has been overpowering hitters. In 4 starts for Class A Rome late last season, Minor went 0-1, allowing just 1 run on 10 hits with 17 K and 0 BB over 14 innings. Minor began 2010 at AA Mississippi where his record was not indicative of his performance on the mound. In 15 starts he was just 2-6, but he posted a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 109 K over 87 innings. Minor was moved up to AAA Gwinnett and has dominated ever since, going 4-1 in 6 starts with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 37 K over 33.1 innings.

Combined between AA and AAA this season, Minor is 6-7 in 21 starts with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and 146 K over 120.1 innings. So why has Minor been so much more of a strikeout pitcher than expected? Apparently a surprising rise in velocity has been a key factor. The biggest factor may be the simple fact that scouting is an inexact science, particular when it comes to young pitchers.

Bud Norris is a stopgap right hander who the Astros would prefer not to have in their rotation. He seems like a guy who would be better used out of the pen, as he throws hard but doesn’t have a lot of stamina. Unfortunately, Houston doesn’t have many better options at this point. In 16 starts this season, Norris is 4-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has 91 K over 86 innings but has only 3 quality starts, and the Astros are just 6-10 with him on the mound.

Norris hasn’t been any better at Enron Field in 2010, going 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 8 home starts. He has struck out 47 over 41.1 innings but has only 1 QS at home, and the Astros are just 2-6 in his 8 home starts. Norris has been better lately. Going back to July 3rd, Norris is 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over his last 6 starts. 2 of his 3 QS have come over that stretch, though the Astros are just 2-4 in those 6 games. Interestingly, Norris has only 31 K over 37.1 innings during that span. Norris took the loss in the finale of the 3 game series in Atlanta back on May 2nd, going 4.2 innings and allowing 7 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 3 K as the Braves won 7-1.

Tuesday

Jair Jurrjens vs. J.A. Happ

Jurrjens is now 4-4 in 12 starts this season with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 6 QS and the Braves are 7-5 with him on the mound. He has pitched well since coming back from the DL, going 4-1 in 7 starts with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has thrown 4 QS in those 7 starts and the Braves have a 5-2 record in those games. Unfortunately, Jurrjens has had some major problems on the road in 2010. He is 0-4 in 6 road starts with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has just 2 QS on the road and the Braves are just 1-5 in his 6 appearances on the road in 2010.

Happ was sent to the Astros in the deal that brought Oswalt to the Phillies. Happ has spent much of the last 2 seasons on the DL. In 5 starts this season he is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.79 ERA over just 22.1 innings. He has only 1 QS. His first start with the Astros went well, as he held the Brewers scoreless on 2 hits and 4 walks with 6 K over 6 innings at home to get the victory. His next start did not go well. In just 1 inning of work in St. Louis, Happ allowed 7 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with just 1 K, taking the loss.

The Braves know Happ well from his time with the Phillies. And most of what the Braves know of the lefty isn’t very good. In 6 appearances against the Braves, Happ is 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 32.1 innings. In 5 starts against the Braves, Happ is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 30.1 innings. The Phils were 4-1 in those 5 games, and Happ tossed Quality Starts in 4 of 5 tries.

Wednesday

Tommy Hanson vs. Wandy Rodriguez

There is good news and bad news concerning Hanson at this point. The good news is that he is pitching much more like his 2009 self. The bad news is that his improved performance on the mound has coincided with a downturn in the Braves’ luck with him on the mound. Hopefully that will all get straightened out over the final two months of the season. Hanson is now 8-8 in 23 starts with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and 130 K over 134 innings. He has 12 QS and the Braves are 13-10 with Hanson on the mound.

Hanson is 4-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. He has struck out 67 over 65 innings and the Braves are 7-4 in his 11 starts away from home. He has 6 QS away from Turner Field this season. In his last 7 starts going back to July 3rd, Hanson has posted a 2.05 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 40 K over 44 innings but has just a 1-3 record. He has thrown a QS in 5 of his last 7 starts but the Braves are just 2-5 in those 7 games. Hanson pitched the opener of the 3 game series with the Astros in Atlanta back on April 30th and it was one of his better starts of the year. He went 8 and allowed only 2 runs on 4 hits and 0 BB with 7 K to get the win.

Wandy Rodriguez isn’t having as good a year as he had last season, as he is 9-11 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 22 starts. He has thrown 13 QS and the Stros are 10-12 with him on the mound. However, Rodriguez has always been a different pitcher at home. In 11 starts at Enron this season Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 64 K over 65 innings. 8 of his 11 home starts have been quality starts.

Rodriguez has been much better recently. He is 6-1 over his last 8 starts going back to June 24th, posting a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 50 K over 53.1 innings. He has 7 QS over his last 8 and the Astros are 6-2 in those games. Going back to July 25th, Rodriguez is 2-0 in 3 starts with a 0.42 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with 23 K over 21.1 innings. All 3 of this last 3 starts have been QS and the Stros are 2-1 in those games. Rodriguez took the loss against the Braves on May 1st in Atlanta, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 10 hits and a walk with 5 K over 5 innings.

Outlook

Compared with the last month or so this does not seem like such a challenging series for the Braves. However, Houston has been playing better than their record suggests over the last couple of months, and they have been a better team at home. The Braves, frankly, have not been a good road team. In addition, the Braves have a pitcher making his first ever appearance in the Majors on Monday, and Houston has a pair of left handers going for them in this series. Happ has always given the Braves problems and Rodriguez is a tough matchup at home. With all of this considered, I think winning 2 of 3 would definitely be a success.