The College Football Blog: 2010 Preseason Power Rankings

2010 Preseason Power Rankings

Note about the power rankings: If you’re reading this then by now you are familiar with how these rankings work. I base my power rankings purely on team strength. In other words, which team I believe would win a head to head matchup on a neutral field. My power rankings have nothing to do with where I think each team will finish the season. I do not consider team schedules at all. I ignore all non-season ending injuries and suspensions.

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
5. Boise State
6. TCU
7. Texas
8. Iowa
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina
11. Nebraska
12. Georgia
13. Virginia Tech
14. Miami
15. Wisconsin

Other teams considered

Florida State
Missouri
Penn State
Auburn
Arkansas
South Carolina

Explanation: In each of the last few seasons I have gone into the year with a strong sense of who I thought the top few teams in the country were. That is not the case this season. I really don’t feel great about these preseason rankings. In the last few years I have stuck to my guns deep into the year, but I could see this list looking very different by the middle of October.

Honestly, I think this could be a wide open year. I mean, every college football season is relatively wide open, but this year the pool of potential National Title contenders seems to be bigger than usual. On the other hand, there aren’t as many sure bets as there normally are.

1. Alabama. When in doubt, I normally turn to the SEC. And the defending national champion is not a bad place to start when looking for a preseason #1. Bama went 14-0 last year and they are 24-0 in the regular season over the last 2 years. They have 8 starters back on offense, including a senior QB in Greg McElroy, a returning Heisman winner at running back in Mark Ingram, and a star receiver in Julio Jones. Sophomore RB Trent Richardson (784 yards, 8 TD) also returns. The offensive line is inexperienced, but they were inexperienced last season and they ended up dominating.

On the other hand, the Tide returns only 2 starters from last year’s stellar defense. Again, however, there is plenty of talent, and Nick Saban seems to be able to mold new stars to replace old ones. In addition, an impact defender from last season returns at every level of the defense (DE Marcell Dareus; MLB Dont’a Hightower; SS Mark Barron). One other area of concern is on special teams, where Bama will basically have to replace everyone.

It seems strange to say this about a team I’m calling the best in the country, but Bama could end up struggling if they don’t find people to step up on defense, ST, and the O-line. However, I don’t see that happening. I expect at the end of the year there will be new well known names on defense, and new offensive linemen on NFL watch lists.

2. Florida. Again, when in doubt I usually turn to the SEC, and the Gators are usually a safe bet to be among the best teams in college football. Florida is 26-2 over the last 2 seasons (1 point loss to Mississippi in ‘08 and a loss to Bama in the SEC Championship Game last year). Obviously the Gators will no longer have Tim Tebow, and that is an enormous loss. As much as I dislike the guy personally, he was a hell of a football player.

The bad news for anyone who isn’t a Gator fan is that Jr QB John Brantley has been dynamite whenever given the chance (36 of 48 for 410 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT last season). Tebow is gone but 6 other starters return on offense. The top 2 receivers from last year are gone, but all the backs return, and Brantley will be protected by a veteran line.

Florida has some major losses on defense as well, but they do return 5 starters, and while inexperienced, they are loaded with talent. The Gators return their kicker and punter, and will no doubt be able to replace return man Brandon James.

I’m going to make a statement that may seem more than a little ridiculous, but I promise you I am completely serious: As a Georgia fan, I was more excited to see Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong leave Florida than Tim Tebow. I truly think Strong’s absence will have an effect on the Gators. However, whether you want to admit it or not, Urban Meyer has proven to be one of the top offensive minds and head coaches in college football, and there is a ton of top young talent in Gainesville.

3. Oklahoma. I know what some of you are thinking: I still haven’t been able to accept that last year’s team bombed. That’s partly true. And I don’t think I have to point out to you how incredibly unlucky the Sooners were health wise last season. Sam Bradford is gone, but he basically missed last season, and 8 starters return on offense. Landry Jones is now an experienced sophomore who should be one of the best QB’s in the country. And you know the Oklahoma offense will be prolific, with RB DeMarco Murray back for his senior season and WR Ryan Broyles returning as well. Most importantly, despite losing their stud LT Trent Williams, the offensive line is much more experienced and should be among the best in the country.

Oklahoma returns 5 starters on defense and they are loaded on that side of the ball. They don’t lose anything in special teams. The Sooners lost a lot this offseason in terms of individual talent, but the team remains very solid.

4. Ohio State. The Buckeyes finished 11-2 last season, ending the year on a 6 game win streak (including a win @ PSU; a win over Iowa; and a dominant win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl). They return 15 starters, 9 on offense, including Jr QB Terrelle Pryor who looked to be coming into his own late last season and is a Heisman front runner going into 2010. All of the backs and receivers return, and the Buckeyes will have an experienced and talented offensive line.

Defensively, Ohio State again has some super linebackers, as well as 3 starters back in the secondary. Special teams is a question mark because the Buckeyes will have to replace everyone. If Pryor lives up to the hype the Buckeyes should be among the best teams in the country this year.

5. Boise State. Amazingly, the Broncos might be the closest thing to a sure bet this season. They have gone 26-1 over the last 2 seasons (only loss a 1 point defeat to TCU in the ’08 Poinsettia Bowl). This season they return 20 starters—10 on offense and 10 on defense—as well as the entire special teams unit. Kellen Moore has been spectacular in his first 2 seasons and he is now a junior. Boise State is perhaps the most experienced offensive team in the country, with seniors littering the running back and receiver ranks.

The Boise State defense is very experienced and very deep. They have an excellent secondary and an experienced and strong linebacking corps. In addition, Boise State’s special teams are among the best in the game.

There seems to be a political movement to put either Boise State or some Mountain West Conference team in the National Championship Game this season. Some people have even claimed that Boise State should open the season as the #1 ranked team. I think Boise State is really, really good, but I’m not ready to say that they would beat the best team from the BCS conferences in the National Title Game. I’m not saying they couldn’t, but I wouldn’t bet on it. We may not find out how good Boise State really is until/unless they do play in the NC Game.

6. TCU. The Horned Frogs were the real deal last season, but for whatever reason, they didn’t play their best in the bowl game against Boise State. They are 23-3 over the last 2 seasons (losses @ Oklahoma and @ Utah in 2008; and vs. Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl last year). TCU returns 16 starters this season. They return 9 on offense, including Sr QB Andy Dalton and all of the top receivers. The offensive line has 4 returning starters.

7 starters return on defense, and although they do lose Jerry Hughes, the rest of the D-line is back. They have great LB’s and a very experienced secondary. All key members from a super special teams unit return. I don’t know if TCU will be as good as last year or not, but they should again be among the best teams in college football, regardless of conference.

7. Texas. This might not seem high enough for some, as the Longhorns have gone 25-2 over the last 2 years (lost @ Texas Tech on last second miracle in ’08; and to Alabama in the NC Game last season with Colt McCoy gone for most of the game). Texas has to replace a lot on offense this season. McCoy is gone and the relatively inexperienced Garrett Gilbert takes his place. Gilbert was thrown into the fire in the NC Game, but he still comes into this season as a sophomore with 66 career attempts. WR and return ace Jordan Shipley is also gone, and the Horns need a new place kicker. The Longhorns lose 3 starters off of the offensive line, but the replacements are very talented.

7 starters are back on the Texas defense, but the 4 starters lost were all super players. On the bright side, both defensive tackles are back, and the defensive ends are young studs. They have a very experienced set of LB’s, as well as 4 of 5 starters back from an elite secondary. Texas could easily end up going undefeated and making it back to the title game.

8. Iowa. This pick could bust. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes could shock Ohio State in the Big Ten. Iowa is 15-2 in their last 17 games (losses late last season against NW when Stanzi went down, and @ Ohio State in OT without Stanzi). They return 14 starters, including Sr QB Rick Stanzi, all the running backs, and the top 2 receivers. The main issue on offense is the inexperienced and questionable offensive line.

The heart of last year’s defense, LB Pat Angerer, is gone this season, but the Hawkeyes get back DE Adrian Clayborn and SS Tyler Sash, both studs. 8 starters return on defense, as well as everyone from a very strong special teams unit. The defensive line returns intact and will be elite. 3 of 4 starters return in the secondary, which will again be top notch.

Obviously offensive line is a bad place to have question marks, and that’s the only thing that scares me about Iowa. Well, that and Stanzi, who will hopefully take better care of the ball as a senior.

9. Oregon. Everyone had to step back and rethink the Ducks after QB Jeremiah Masoli was suspended and eventually left school this offseason. With Masoli coming back Oregon looked like a top 5 team. They have gone 10-3 in each of the last 2 seasons, and they return 17 starters this season. Despite the loss of Masoli, as well as running back LeGarrette Blount, Oregon still looks good offensively, with 9 returning starters, including star RB LaMichael James. In addition, some great new RB’s should contribute. Most importantly, the entire talented, deep, and very experienced O-line is back.

8 starters return on defense, including 4 from a very experienced and quality secondary. It’s hard to know what to make of Oregon under Chip Kelly. They’ve been very successful under his watch. On the other hand they’ve had more off the field issues than perhaps any team in the country over the last few years. On the field, Masoli’s absence is huge, as he was a very capable passer, and the 2nd leading rusher on the team. One of the young QB’s left on the depth chart will have to step up in Masoli’s absence, but no matter what happens, it doesn’t seem likely that they will be able to run the offense as well as Masoli did.

10. North Carolina. Yeah, I’ve got the Tar Heels in my top 10. It seems like a major reach, as the Heels haven’t been great since Mack Brown was coach, and they’ve never really contended for anything serious. But to be honest, I expected Butch Davis to turn UNC into one of the best teams in the ACC, and I’m really just surprised it took this long. He’s had some personal issues, as well as terrible luck with injuries on the field. The Heels have also had tough luck in close games. They were 8-5 in each of the last 2 seasons, but they went 2-7 over that time in games decided by 3 points or less. This season Davis has his most talented team, and with 19 returning starters, they are at least capable of making some noise.

It’s all based around this defense, which returns 9 starters. Look, barring ineligibilities or trouble with the NCAA (which is a possibility), I just don’t see how UNC’s defense isn’t going to be one of the very best in the country. According to many college and pro analysts, the Heels have the top defensive tackle, the top defensive end, the top inside linebacker, and the top outside linebacker…in the country!!! They have the top defensive line and the top linebacking corps in the nation, as well as 4 starters back from a top 10 secondary. In addition, the entire special teams unit returns.

It seems like the offense is going to determine whether the Heels are a good team with a great defense or something more. 10 starters return on offense, led by an improved and experienced O-line. They have good talent at receiver and a 3-year starter at QB in senior TJ Yates. However, Yates will need to play much better to hold off some talented youngsters challenging for his job. If the offense does anything, I think the Heels will be really dangerous.

11. Nebraska. I’m a little worried about this pick. The Cornhuskers have gone 9-4 and 10-4 in Bo Pelini’s first 2 seasons as head coach, and they could have been much better (2 losses to Virginia Tech by a total of 6 points; @ Texas Tech in OT in 2008; vs. #4 Mizzu and @ #4 Oklahoma in ’08; to Iowa State by 2 when they turned it over 8 times last year; to Texas by 1 in the conference title game last year). They have 15 returning starters and 59 returning lettermen. On the other hand, it’s hard to know just how large an impact the departure of Ndamukong Suh will have on the defense.

Nebraska has Zac Lee returning at QB for his senior year, but he will have to improve in order to hold his job. In fact, Lee is another thing that has me worried about this team. He has single handedly held down the Cornhusker offense at times. On the other hand, Nebraska has a very experienced O-line that should be much improved, and they get 9 starters back on offense.

The defense has 6 starters back, but of course Suh is gone. They do have an excellent special teams unit returning. The DL should still be very solid and they have an excellent secondary, but it’s tough to know how good the Black Shirts will be without Suh.

12. Georgia. I know you’re thinking that I’m letting my love for the Dawgs get in the way of objectivity here. Perhaps, but this pick is not without reason. The Dawgs have 15 returning starters, a stable of talented backs returning, the best special teams unit in the land, and should have the top offensive line in all of college football. They return 10 starters on offense, including the best wide receiver in the country.

Of course the one spot where they don’t return a starter on offense is fairly important: quarterback. The Dawgs will start a red shirt freshman at QB, and that’s never a good thing in the SEC. However, Aaron Murray is a talented red shirt freshman, and he’ll have a lot of help on offense.

The defense is also a major question mark, but they have a new defensive coordinator, and the positives of a more aggressive, intelligent scheme should out weigh any negatives that come from having to adjust to a new system. The Dawgs have talent and experience at linebacker. The D-line and the secondary are major question marks, but hopefully under a new system some of the talent will emerge and play up to potential. The Dawgs have had awful luck with injuries, but if they stay healthy this season I believe they will be very good, and by the end of the year they may be much higher in these rankings.

13. Virginia Tech. VT has been a team mentioned as a NC contender since the end of last season. I’m not going that far because the Hokies have rarely been able to put it all together and challenge for the national title. They are 14-3 over their last 17 games (losses to Bama in the Dome; @ GT by 5; and vs. UNC by 3) but they return only 12 starters this year.

Another reason I am not as high on the Hokies is that I have never really been a big Tyrod Taylor fan, but the QB is very talented and he will be a senior this season. They also have a pair of stud running backs returning in Ryan Williams and Darren Evans. All the receivers are back, but they have to replace the entire left side of the offensive line.

VT always reloads on defense, but they do have only 4 returning starters on that side. They are always among the top teams in the country in special teams, but they must replace their kicker and punter this season. I’m sure the defense will be solid, as they are talented and well coached, but they are very inexperienced.

14. Miami. The U is still not back. They went 9-4 last year but they were 3-1 in games decided by 4 points or less (including 1 point wins over Oklahoma and Wake Forrest). This season they return only 13 starters, and I’m still not sold on Randy Shannon as a coach or Jacory Harris as a QB.

The Canes return 6 on offense, including the junior Harris, as well as all the receivers. They have some talented RB’s but they are inexperienced, and RB/return man Greg Cooper is a question mark after tearing his ACL in the bowl game. The Canes must replace both tackles and the center off the O-line.

Miami’s defense is of course talented, and they have some experience throughout the defense, with 7 starters returning. All of the key members from the special teams unit return (with the return man Cooper questionable). It may come down to the development of Jacory Harris and whether they can survive their ridiculous schedule.

15. Wisconsin. This may be a surprise for some, but the Badgers are usually a safe bet to be a solid team. They were 10-3 last season (losses @ Ohio State, vs. Iowa, and @ NW by 2) and they have 16 starters back in 2010. The offense should be very good, with 10 starters back, led by Sr QB Scott Tolzien and classic Badger tailback John Clay. WR Nick Toon and stud TE Lance Kendricks also return. They have a huge, talented, and very experienced offensive line.

The entire special teams unit returns along with 6 defensive starters. The Badgers lose a couple of key players from the defense but they have a very solid set of linebackers and a an experienced secondary. If the defensive line can recover from the loss of O’Brien Schofield, Wisconsin could be a surprise contender in the Big Ten.

Other Teams

Florida State. Bobby Bowden is gone, but I actually think that could be a positive. They return 15 starters, including Sr QB Christian Ponder. The entire offensive line is back and should be much better. The O-line has talent and is now experienced, and if Ponder gets protection he could win the Heisman. All of the running backs return to help out on offense. The Seminoles were excellent on special teams last year and everyone is back. The defense is questionable but it must be improved. A talented group of linebackers should lead the Noles back from the abyss on that side of the ball.

Missouri. The Tigers return 16 starters, 8 on each side of the ball. Jr QB Blaine Gabbert should be one of the best QB’s in the Big XII this year, and the Tigers return all of their running backs. They have a super kicker and they will be much more experienced at offensive line and on defense this year. However, they will have to replace their best player on each side of the ball (WR Danario Alexander and MLB Sean Weatherspoon).

Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 29-5 in their last 34 games (3 losses to Ohio State, 2 losses to Iowa). They return only 13 starters, and while they do bring 8 starters back on offense, replacing QB Daryll Clark could be the key to the season. Star RB Evan Royster is back and the O-line is experienced and should be improved. PSU suffers some major losses on defense, with the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Jared Odrick gone from the line, and their 2 great linebackers also gone. However, the front 7 is still very talented, if inexperienced, and the secondary is very good and very experienced.

Auburn. The Tigers have 15 returning starters, 7 on offense and 8 on defense. They have an inexperienced QB, but they have great receivers and a very good, very experienced O-line. They have strong LB’s and a solid secondary. They are now in the 2nd year of Gene Chizik’s system.

Arkansas. Arkansas is the trendy pick to be an SEC upstart in 2010, but I’m not convinced. They showed some potential last year, going 8-5, with a 3 point loss @ Florida and a 3 point loss @ LSU in OT. They have 59 returning lettermen, 17 returning starters (10 on offense, 7 on defense), and they are in the 3rd year of Bobby Petrino’s system. Jr QB Ryan Mallett is among the most talented passers in the country and now has a full season in Petrino’s system under his belt. All the receivers return to form perhaps the best receiving corps in the country. And the offensive line is among the most experienced in the country. The Hogs defense is experienced and should be much improved, and they return the entire special teams unit. Despite all of this, they are coached by a slimy snake. And they are Arkansas.

South Carolina. Yes, I know you’ve heard it before: “This could be the year that Spurrier takes South Carolina, blah, blah, blah…” But this could be the year. The Cocks have 16 starters back (9 on offense, 7 on defense) and Jr QB Stephen Garcia may be on the verge of a breakthrough season. All of the top RB’s are back and this is the best set of receivers Spurrier has had to play with since coming to SC. The offensive line is experienced. On defense, the Cocks lose their top LB but DE Cliff Matthews returns for his senior season. The secondary is experienced and solid. The special teams unit returns intact. And yet, Spurrier still hasn’t won more than 8 games in a season at South Carolina.