The Braves Blog: Gonads Series Preview

It’s been a very strange week for the Braves and their fans. It’s just a strange time. On the one hand, the Braves have finally gotten on a roll in the 2nd half and they continue to lead the NL East. This group of Braves has proven to be a team in the true sense of the word, and it is not cliché to say that these Braves do not quit and they do not say die. On the other hand, the Braves have lost the face of the team, a veteran leader, and most importantly, the most respected and feared bat in the lineup. They have lost their #3 hitter and their starting third baseman.

It would seem unlikely that the Braves could somehow hold off the Phillies to win the NL East, and they probably wouldn’t even be the logical favorite to win the Wild Card at this point. At the All-Star break fans could dream of a World Series championship. At this point, it’s hard to imagine how the Braves could reach the playoffs and then win 3 series against teams which on paper would appear to have the advantage. But for now, they just keep winning. It’s just a weird and unfamiliar situation.

Injuries aside, stranger things have happened. If any franchise understands the crapshoot that the MLB playoffs can be it is the Atlanta Braves. We’ve seen minimum payroll teams win the Wild Card and defeat the team with the highest payroll in the game in the World Series. We’ve seen teams lose in the playoffs as the #1 seed year after year and then finally win the World Series after sneaking into the playoffs with a record close to .500. We’ve seen miracles. That’s what we have to hope for. We have to hope that our team comes out on the right side of a totally perplexing final result. We have to hope that these Braves simply continue to win until there are no games left to play.

The Braves are now a season high 20 games over .500 at 69-49 (.585) and 2.5 games up on the Phillies in the NL East. Turner Field has been a magical place from the very 1st inning of this season, and the Braves are now 42-16 (.724) at the Ted. They are back to .500 (18-18) in 1-run games and extra inning games (6-6). The Braves are 17-14 in their last 31 games (17-13 in the 2nd half) but 10-4 in their last 14. They have won 4 straight series.

Injuries, offensive problems, and defensive mistakes have plagued the Braves in recent weeks. However, the starting pitching and middle relief—along with some timely hitting--has bailed the team out and turned a possible slump into a nice stretch. But now a bugaboo comes to a town. A bugaboo as annoying as the very word “bugaboo.” An irritating group of pesky pests, fittingly called the Nats.

Washington Series Preview

The Braves are just 4-5 in 9 games against the Gonads this season, having been outscored 32-29 over those 9 games. Back in early May the Braves dropped 2 of 3 at Washington, losing 6-3 in the opener, taking the next game 7-6 in 10 innings, and then losing the rubber match by a run, 3-2. In late June the Braves returned the favor, taking 2 of 3 from the Nats in Atlanta, winning 5-0 in the opener, losing 7-2 in the next game, but then taking the finale 4-1 to claim the series win. In late July the Braves again lost 2 of 3 in Washington, getting shutout in the opener 3-0, winning 3-1 the next day, but then dropping the last game 5-3 to lose the series. The Braves absolutely must win this series, and it wouldn’t hurt to take all 3 games.

The Nats are currently 16 games under .500 at 51-67 (.432) and in last place in the East, 18 games back of the Braves. They have been a very weak road team this season, going just 20-40 (.333) through their first 60 games away from home. The Nats are 16-20 in 1-run games and they have had no luck at all in extra inning games, coming away just 1-8 in 9 extra inning affairs this season. They are 12-17 in the 2nd half and just 2-6 in their last 8.

The Nats certainly have some dangerous hitters in their lineup, but Washington is just 14th in the NL in runs per game and 9th in homers. They do have some speed, as they are 3rd in the NL in stolen bases, as well as 5th in the NL with a 73% SB success rate. They really didn’t give away much of their offense at the trade deadline. They did trade Christian Guzman, but that probably makes them a better offensive team. The Braves do catch a break, as Nyjer Morgan is on the DL at the moment.

Washington’s pitching numbers aren’t that impressive. They are 11th in the NL in ERA, runs allowed per game, and WHIP. They are tied for 15th in Quality Starts and 13th in starter’s ERA. However, Washington’s bullpen is no longer a weak spot. They no longer have Matt Capps at the closer spot, but they have plenty of tough and talented arms left in the pen, and they are 4th in the NL in BP ERA this season.

The Nats still hurt themselves on defense a lot. They are 15th in the NL in errors and Fielding Percentage, and they are 11th in Defensive Efficiency. Ivan Rodriguez still does a good job limiting base stealers, but he is not the best backstop behind the plate at this point. Ian Desmond is a plus for the Nats as a batter, but is a liability in the field at shortstop. And, of course, Adam Dunn is the first baseman, although he is definitely improved in the field.

Tuesday

Scott Olsen vs. Mike Minor

I think I speak for all Braves fans when I say that I’m tired of facing Scott Olsen. I don’t ever need to see him again. The tall left hander is now 3-4 on the season in 11 starts with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. The Nats are 5-6 in his starts and he has 5 Quality Starts. He has been better in 5 starts on the road this season, going 1-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has 2 QS on the road and the Nats are 2-3 in his 5 road starts.

The Braves used to handle Olsen, but in recent times he has befuddled the Atlanta lineup. In 15 career appearances against the Braves, 14 as a starter, Olsen is 4-5 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. However, in his last 3 starts against the Braves Olsen is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 14 K over 22 innings. The Nats have won all 3 of those games and he has posted a QS in each of them.

Back on May 6th in Washington, Olsen went 7.1 innings and allowed just 2 runs (1 earned) on 2 hits and a walk with 8 K, taking a no-decision in a game the Nats eventually won 3-2. Just a few weeks ago Olsen went 6 against the Braves in Washington and held them to 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks with a K to get the win in a 5-3 Nats victory. Olsen’s last 2 starts coming into this game have not gone well, as he went 0-2, allowing 12 runs on 15 hits and 3 walks over 7.1 innings, giving up 3 dingers. One thing for the Braves to feel confident about is that they know Olsen well. Also, he has not been very tough on left handed batters this season.

Mike Minor will be taking the mound at Turner Field for the first time in his career on Tuesday. He pitched well despite terrible luck in his MLB debut at Houston back on August 9th. Minor wound up going 6 innings and allowing 4 runs (3 earned) on 5 hits with just 1 walk and 5 K. He hit a batter and surrendered 3 doubles but more than half of the hits allowed were cheap bloops. He got the no-decision in a game the Braves let get out of hand, losing 10-4. He threw 64 of 94 pitches for strikes. I for one was very impressed.

Wednesday

Livan Hernandez vs. Tim Hudson

Yeah, I don’t need to see Livan again either. He’s now 8-8 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 24 starts in 2010. He has thrown 2 CG and a SHO. The Nats are 13-11 with Hernandez on the mound, and he has an impressive 17 QS in 24 tries. Livan is 4-4 in 11 road starts with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. The Nats are just 4-7 in those 11 games, but Hernandez has a CG and 8 QS away from home.

Livan has been pretty consistent all year. In his last 3 starts he is 1-1 with a 2.18 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 20.2 innings. All 3 of those starts were QS but the Nats are just 1-2 in those games. The Braves have seen Livan twice already this season. On May 4th in Washington, Hernandez went just 5.1 innings but held the Braves to 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 5 walks with a K to get the win in a 6-3 Nats victory. On July 28th at Nationals Park the Braves knocked Hernandez out early again, this time getting 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks as Livan left after 4.1 innings. He took the loss as the Braves won 3-1.

I don’t really want to say too much about Huddy. He’s been spectacular. He’s 14-5 in 24 starts with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has 1 CG and 20 QS, though the Braves are a relatively mediocre 15-9 in his starts considering how consistently good he has been. Huddy has been dominant at home, going 9-3 in 12 starts at the Ted with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has 11 QS in 12 home starts.

Over his last 5 starts, Huddy is 5-0 with a 0.49 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over 36.2 innings. During that stretch he has struck out 26 while walking 7, has not allowed a homer, and has held batters to .183/.237/.206/.443 hitting. Obviously all 5 of those starts were QS. Hudson has faced the Nats 3 times already in 2010 and he has posted a QS each time, though the Braves are only 2-1 in those games. He has a 2-0 record in 3 starts vs. the Nats this year with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and 17 K over 21.2 innings.

Thursday

John Lannan vs. Derek Lowe

Lannan will be the 2nd lefty to face the Braves in this series, but left handed batters have faired well against him this year too. He is 4-5 in 17 starts with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. He has 9 QS in 17 tries and the Nats are 9-8 with him on the mound. In 9 starts on the road this year Lannan is 3-3 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. He has thrown 4 QS on the road and the Nats are 4-5 in his 9 starts away from home. Lannan has pitched well over his last 3 outings, going 2-0 and posting a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 18 innings. 2 of those last 3 starts have been QS and the Nats are 2-1 in those games.

Lowe is basically Lowe. You never know quite what you’re going to get. You can bet it won’t be great, but it might be good enough to win. He is now 11-10 in 25 starts with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 2010. He has only 11 QS and the Braves are just 12-13 with him on the mound. Lowe has been much better at Turner Field, going 8-4 in 13 starts with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has thrown 6 QS at home and the Braves are 8-5 in his 13 starts at the Ted.

Lowe has been decent over his last 3 games, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 17.1 innings. He has walked just 2 and has not allowed a homer over his last 3 outings. 2 of his last 3 appearances have been QS, but the Braves are only 1-2 in those games. This will be Lowe’s 3rd start against the Nats in 2010. Unfortunately, his first 2 tries have been poor. On June 29th at Atlanta Lowe allowed 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with 5 K over 5.2 innings and took the loss as the Braves fell 7-2. A few weeks ago in Washington Lowe gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk with 3 K over just 5 innings, again taking the loss as the Braves dropped the game 5-3. Combined against the Nats this season, Lowe is 0-2 in 2 starts and has allowed 8 earned runs on 13 hits and 3 walks with 8 K over just 10.2 innings.

Outlook

The Braves get a boost going into this series as Martin Prado has been activated and is expected to be back in the lineup for the opener. However, Martin is not yet 100% and I am actually a bit concerned that he is coming back too soon. Let’s hope I’m wrong. Prado will also be playing 3rd, so they are asking a lot of the guy. While none of the pitchers facing the Braves in this series is intimidating, the Braves will be facing a pair of lefties, one of whom has given them a lot of trouble recently. And you know Livan will keep the Nats in the game. On the other hand, the Braves have Minor making just his 2nd start in the big leagues and his first at home in the opener. And in the finale the Braves have the always shaky Lowe. A horrifying stat is that the Braves are just 20-25 against the Nats since the start of the 2008 season. Still, the Braves should be able to win this series, and they should aim to sweep, as they are clearly the better team and they are playing at home.