Thursday, August 5, 2010

The Braves Blog: San Francisco Series Preview

The Braves are in a dogfight. There’s no doubt about it. They aren’t playing well, the Phillies are breathing down their necks, the injuries are piling up, and there don’t seem to be any easy days on the schedule. The Braves are having to fight for every win right now, and every loss is excruciating. Even the wins have been painful lately. Last Friday they pulled out a thriller over the Reds in Cincinnati, but in the process they lost their best player to the DL. On Wednesday they took the rubber match over the hated Mets to gain a series win, but along the way they lost Kris Medlen, probably for a long time. All the while the Phillies are cutting away at that lead.

The Braves are still in 1st place but their lead over the Phils is down to just 2 games. The Marlins are 7.5 back and the Mets are 8 games out. The Braves are now 61-46 (.570) and 36-14 at home, but they are just 9-11 in their last 20 games (9-10 since the All-Star break). They have a +80 run differential, but they are just 15-16 in 1-run games and 5-5 in extra innings. The offense has stalled out and the bullpen has faltered. That pen is getting work each and every night. Any mistake made in the field or on the bases is magnified, as runs are scarce and leads precious.

Yes, the last few weeks have been stressful, and unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any easier in the near future. Prado is still 10 to 15 days away from returning. Medlen is more than likely done for the year. And now the Braves will have to host the red hot Giants in a 4-game series this weekend. Not exactly the squad you want to be facing when you’re not getting any big hits and you’re struggling to score runs. You don’t want to be overly dramatic and panicky with 55 games remaining on the schedule, but the Braves season could very well be on the line. We are going to learn something about the Braves this weekend. I feel confident about that at least.

San Francisco Series Preview

The Giants are a half game ahead of the Braves in the NL standings with a record of 62-46 (.574). They are in 2nd place in the NL West, a game behind the Padres. San Fran has a +89 run differential and they are 29-26 on the road. The Giants are 17-16 in 1-run games and 7-6 in extra innings. Unfortunately for us Braves people, the Giants are coming to Atlanta on quite a roll. Despite losing on Wednesday to the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez, the G-Men are 15-5 in their last 20 games. Things have changed dramatically over the last month. On July 4th, the Giants lost a heartbreaker to the Rockies in Colorado, 4-3, in 15 innings, to fall to 41-40, exactly halfway through their season. They have since gone 21-6.

The Braves played the Giants very early on in the 2010 season, going out to San Fran for a 3 game series from 4/9 to 4/11. The Braves outscored the Giants 14-13 over the 3 game series, but still dropped 2 of 3. We seemed to have the opener in the bag, but Billy Wagner had his first hiccup of the season, blowing the save, and the Braves went on to lose it 5-4 in 13 innings. The Bravos won 7-2 the next day, but they lost to Tim Lincecum in the finale, 6-3, as the Giants won the series.

This Giants team is not really that much different from San Francisco teams of the past 4 or 5 years. They are a bit challenged offensively, but they have as good a pitching staff as there is in the NL. And the Giants aren’t a terrible offensive team. They are 9th in runs per game and 9th in homers, but those numbers are affected by their home park. The G-Men are actually 4th in the NL in batting average; 7th in OBP; 7th in Slugging; and 8th in OPS. They don’t draw a ton of walks (10th in the NL) but they do make good contact (4th in strikeouts). One thing the Giants do not do well is run. The Giants are 15th in the NL in stolen bases, and their 63% success rate is dead last in the National League. They also lead the league in ground ball double plays by a wide margin.

Whatever offensive struggles the Giants have, their pitching more than makes up for it. SF is 2nd in runs allowed per game and ERA. The Giants are tied 2nd in the NL in complete games; 2nd in complete game shutouts; tied for 3rd in team shutouts; 5th in WHIP; and 1st in K/9. They are 1st by a mile in saves and they also lead the NL with a 78% save success rate. Their 11 blown saves are tied for the 3rd fewest in the league. The Giants are 2nd in both starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA. In the field, the Giants do a good job helping out the talented starting pitchers and relievers. The Giants have committed the fewest errors in the NL, they are 2nd in Fielding Percentage, and they are 2nd in Defensive Efficiency.

Thursday

Tim Lincecum vs. Jair Jurrjens

Obviously the toughest test for Braves batters during the series will come in the opener, as they face the 2-time defending NL Cy Young award winner. Lincecum is in the midst of another excellent season. However, the Braves will not be facing the Lincecum from 2008-2009. There’s no question that Lincecum has lost a little something in 2010. His velocity is down and he’s even modified his freakish delivery. To be sure, Lincecum is the ace of the Giants staff and one of the best pitchers in the game. In 22 starts, Lincecum is 11-4 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has 1 shutout and 152 K in 145.1 innings. Obviously those are great numbers, but they are off significantly from his dominant 2008 and 2009 stats.

The important thing is that Lincecum’s presence on the mound is still leading the Giants to wins most of the time. They are 16-6 in his 22 starts. He has tossed 16 quality starts in 22 games. And Lincecum’s numbers aren’t inflated (or deflated?) by Barry Bonds Park. In 11 starts on the road this year, Lincecum is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. The Giants are 9-2 in his 11 road starts and he has thrown a quality start in 8 of those games. The Giants have won his last 5 starts overall. The Braves have already lost to Lincecum once in 2010. Back on April 11th, Lincecum went 7 innings and allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk while fanning 10, getting the win in a 6-3 Giants victory at Barry Bonds Park. The only run the Braves scored off of him came on a solo homer, and that’s often the only way you can score on an ace the likes of Lincecum.

Jurrjens has really been pitching well since coming off the DL. In his last few outings Jurrjens has been hurt by the reality that the Braves can’t afford to go to the bullpen in the 7th inning of every game, the way they did during much of the first half. As a result, Jurrjens has taken some lumps later in the game in recent starts which have spoiled very solid performances. In his last appearance he had allowed only 1 run through 6 before giving up 4 to the Reds in the 7th. Overall he is now 3-4 in 11 starts with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has 5 quality starts and the Braves are 6-5 with him on the mound. Double J has pitched well at Turner Field, where he is 3-0 in 5 starts with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has fanned 27 over 31.2 innings at home this season. Jurrjens has 3 quality starts at home in 2010 and the Braves have won all 5 of his home starts.

Friday

Barry Zito vs. Tommy Hanson

Zito has quietly had a very good season for San Francisco. The veteran lefty is 8-6 in 22 starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has thrown 1 complete game and 16 quality starts in 22 tries. The Giants are 13-9 with Zito on the mound. As you might expect, he hasn’t been quite as good away from Barry Bonds Park. In 10 road starts he is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, though he did pitch a complete game on the road earlier this year. He has thrown 5 QS in 10 games on the road, and the Giants are 5-5 in those 10 games.

Unfortunately, Zito has been on a serious roll recently. Zito is just 1-2 over his last 4 games, but in 28.2 innings during those 4 starts he has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 23 K. Each of his last 4 starts have been quality starts. He has allowed 4 dingers over those last 4 starts, and the Giants are just 2-2 in those games.

I’m almost afraid to say anything, but Tommy Hanson might be starting to find his good stuff. Strangely, as Hanson has started to pitch better on a more consistent basis, the Braves have begun to have worse luck with him on the mound. Hanson is now just 8-8 in 22 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has struck out 127 in 127 innings. Tommy has 11 quality starts and the Braves are now 13-9 with him on the mound.

In 11 starts at the Ted this year Hanson is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has 5 QS in 11 attempts at home and the Braves are 6-5 in those games. Over his last 6 appearances Hanson has been solid, despite a 1-3 record. He has posted a 2.19 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 37 K over 37 innings in those last 6 starts, but the Braves are just 2-4 in those games. Hanson has thrown quality starts in 4 of his last 6 appearances, though he has given up 5 unearned runs during that time.

Matt Cain vs. Tim Hudson

Cain is kind of a hard guy for me to figure out. He’s no longer the power pitcher he looked like he would be when he first came up, but he has certainly developed into very good starting pitcher. The Giants have a strange habit of underperforming in Cain’s games. He is just 9-8 in 22 starts this season despite a 2.98 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He has pitched 3 complete games already in 2010, including a pair of shutouts. Amazingly, though Cain has thrown quality starts in 17 of 22 appearances, the G-Men are just 11-11 in those games.

Cain’s numbers are not as good on the road as they are at home but they’re still solid. In 11 road starts this year he is 3-5 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 2 complete games and a shutout on the road this season, and he has thrown quality starts in 9 of 11 tries, but the Giants are somehow just 4-7 in his 11 road starts. Like Zito, Cain has been rolling as of late. He’s 3-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.52 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Cain has fanned 25 in 29.2 innings over those last 4 outings, tossing a QS in all 4 games, with the Giants going 4-0.

Tim Hudson has been absolutely brilliant for Atlanta this season. You just wonder if he’ll be able to maintain this level throughout the entire season. The problem is that he almost has to if the Braves are going to make the playoffs. I’ve said similar things in earlier blogs, but if Hudson does finish the season strong and the Braves do get back to the postseason it will go down as one of the great seasons for any pitcher in Atlanta Braves history. In 22 starts Huddy is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has posted quality starts in 18 of 22 games. Huddy has 1 complete game this year and the Braves are 13-9 with him on the mound.

In 10 starts at Turner Field this season Hudson is 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. 9 of his 10 home starts have been quality starts. In his last 3 outings Huddy has gone 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 20.2 innings, posting a QS in all 3 appearances. Huddy has already faced the Giants in 2010. Back on April 9th it looked like Hudson would get the victory after he went 7 innings and held the Giants to 2 runs on 3 hits and no walks, but a blown save left Huddy with a no-decision and the Braves with a 5-4 loss in extra innings.

Sunday

Jonathan Sanchez vs. Derek Lowe

It looks like Sanchez is just always going to have some problems with control, but otherwise he’s turned into a pretty solid left handed starter. Sanchez has made 22 starts in 2010 (along with 1 relief appearance, 0.1 innings, 1 K) and is 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has fanned 136 over 128 innings. Sanchez has only 9 quality starts due to the fact that his pitch count elevates so quickly that he isn’t able to pitch deep into games. Still, the Giants are 14-8 with him on the mound.

Pitching away from Barry Bonds Park has had no effect on Sanchez in 2010. He is 3-3 in 11 road starts with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has 5 quality starts in 11 tries on the road this year and the Giants are 7-4 in those 11 games. Sanchez faced the Braves in the opener of the series in San Fran back in April, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks with 6 K over just 4.1 innings. He appeared headed for the loss but ended up getting a no-decision as the Giants stunned the Braves in extra innings, 5-4.

Derek Lowe is…pretty much Derek Lowe. He’s now 10-9 in 23 starts with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has managed just 10 quality starts over 23 appearances this season, and the Braves are now under .500 at 11-12 in his games. On the positive side, Lowe is 7-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 11 starts at home this season. He has thrown 5 quality starts in 11 tries at home and the Braves are 7-4 in those games. Lowe got the “W” in the Braves’ only victory during their series in San Fran back in April, but it was a typical “he really didn’t pitch that well” Lowe start. He gave up only 1 run over 6 innings and struck out 4 but he allowed 4 hits and walked 7 men. The Braves won it for Lowe, 7-2.

Outlook

This series is a little scary. It’s not that hard to imagine the Braves getting swept. I’m not saying that’s going to happen but it’s believable at this point. The Braves are struggling right now and they are welcoming in a team that is clicking on all cylinders and has been winning constantly for a month. The Braves will see a tough pitcher in all 4 games, including one of the game’s best in the opener, as well as 2 left handers. The Giants have also been a good road team this season. Also, the Giants have both good starting pitching and a solid pen, and that combination kind of takes one of the Braves’ main strengths away, as taking pitches, working for walks, and wearing down the starter doesn’t have as much value. The Giants do not often hurt themselves either. This will be a tough one, and I’d be quite content with a split, even if we are at home, and even though that might mean we’d be tied with the Phillies by the end of Sunday.

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