The Braves Blog: Cincinnati Series Preview

We’ve all seen the standings change dramatically over a short period of time before. But it has still been a bit alarming for Braves fans to see just how quickly the lead in the NL East has shrunk in recent days. A couple of weeks ago the Braves were fairly comfortable atop the division. Now it seems all but inevitable that the Braves will lose their hold on 1st place.

So what the hell’s gone so badly wrong? It’s not that the Braves are playing terribly. To be sure they are struggling in a way that they haven’t in months. They are 6-8 in their last 14 games. They have lost their last 2 series and they’ve won only 1 of 4 series since the All-Star break. On the other hand, they haven’t lost more than 2 games in a row for over a month. The problem is that Atlanta’s stumble has coincided with Philly catching fire. The Phils have won 8 straight and now they have added Roy Oswalt for virtually nothing.

This isn’t exactly the best time for the Braves to be playing another 1st place team on the road. The Braves are 58-43 but their lead in the NL East is now down to 2.5 games. They are just 15-14 in 1-run games and 24-30 on the road. Over the last couple of weeks the Braves have struggled in just about every area of the game at one time or another. Against the Brewers their starters were off. Their closer blew back to back saves in 2 different series. Against the Nats this week the Braves scored just 6 runs in 3 games. There have been costly defensive mistakes in several losses. And now they go to Cincinnati where they will face 3 tough pitchers and the best offensive club in the league.

Cincinnati Series Preview

If not for the Padres, the Reds would be the biggest surprise in baseball this season. For me, it’s not that the Reds are in 1st place that is so surprising; it’s that it all seems to be completely legit. The Reds don’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses and they’ve been consistent. After a disastrous 4 game sweep at the hands of the Phillies in the last series before the All-Star break, I really thought the Reds might wilt in the 2nd half. That hasn’t happened yet. They are now 57-46 (.553) and in 1st place in the NL Central by percentage points over the Cardinals. At this point, I would say they look like a safer bet than St. Louis to hang in the race to the finish.

The Reds are 31-22 (.585) at home and they come into this series 8-5 in their last 13 games. They haven’t had great luck in close games, as they are 7-6 in extra innings and 17-18 in 1-run games. Back in May, the Braves won both games of a 2 game series with the Reds in Atlanta, taking each game by 1 run. The Braves could easily have lost both of those games. In the first game they blew a 4-0 lead, allowing 3 runs in the 8th and 1 in the 9th, before winning on a 2 out RBI double by Jason Heyward in the bottom of the 9th. The second game was of course the Brooks Conrad walk off grand slam game, when the Braves scored 7 runs in the 9th to win 10-9. The comeback could not have happened without the 4 errors committed by the Reds, along with several other defensive miscues that were not ruled errors.

For years now the Reds have commonly been among the highest scoring teams in the NL. The band box of a stadium that they play their home games in has helped in that regard, and they have usually had boppers spread throughout their lineup. The difference this season is that the Reds are not just among the best offensive clubs in the NL, they are clearly the very best. The Reds lead the NL in runs per game, average, slugging, and OPS. They are 2nd in homers and OBP. They are even 4th in stolen bases, although they have a low success rate of just 68% (hey, it’s Dusty Baker’s team. What do you expect?). They are below average in walks and strikeouts, but they aren’t at the very bottom in either of those categories. They are just solid and tough to pitch against.

Another difference for the Reds is that this season their great hitting has not been negated by terrible pitching. The Reds aren’t a great pitching team but they’ve done well enough to make the offensive support stand up. They are 10th in the NL in ERA and 8th in WHIP. They are 10th in both starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA. The Reds have been amassing a stable of quality young pitchers for some time now and it’s starting to pay off. But the biggest difference has been in the defense. While 10th in the NL in ERA, the Reds are 7th in runs allowed per game. That’s largely due to the great glove work, as they are tied 2nd in the NL in errors; 2nd in Fielding Percentage; and 3rd in Defensive Efficiency.

For the third straight series the Braves will be going into a place where they have flat out struggled over the years. Since it’s opening in 2003, the Braves are just 12-17 at The Great American Ballpark. Actually, the Braves are 23-28 against the Reds overall during that time. With the notable exception of 2005, the Reds have been a major stumbling block for the Braves in recent years, often tripping up the Braves at the most inopportune time. Back in 2005 it was a 4 game series at the GAB in June that the Braves used as a spring board to get them rolling and on their way to a 14th consecutive division title (though even in that series the Braves blew a lead in the finale and lost a chance for a 4-game sweep). The Braves were 5-2 in Cinci that season and 7-3 against the Reds overall. In the other 6 seasons since the GAB opened in ’03, the Braves are just 7-15 against the Reds on the road and 16-25 overall.

Worse than the record has been the way that the Braves have lost many of those games. Consider, in 2007 the Braves played 4 games in Cinci and outscored the Reds 30-25, yet they lost 3 of the 4 games. At home or on the road, the Braves have lost a ton of close games to Cincinnati over the last few years. That’s one of the reasons it was so gratifying to burn the Reds in back to back games earlier this season. From 2003-2009, the Braves went 4-11 against the Reds in 1-run games and 3-7 against them in extra inning games. From 2007 to 2009 alone, the Braves went 1-6 against the Reds in 1-run games and 0-5 in extra inning affairs.

Friday

Kris Medlen vs. Johnny Cueto

The Braves have tinkered with Medlen lately, taking him in and out of the rotation, apparently in an attempt to limit his innings. While I fully understand the desire to be careful with the young righty, it’s been a bit annoying because he hasn’t responded well to the changes, and he had been one of the most consistent starting pitchers for the Braves this season. Medlen has pitched in 29 games in 2010, 12 as a starter and 17 as a reliever. He is 6-2 overall with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. In 12 starts Medlen is 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has thrown 7 Quality Starts and the Braves are 11-1 in his 12 starts.

On the road, Medlen has a 4.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 15 appearances, 7 as a starter. He has a 4-1 record on the road. Medlen is coming off of his worst start of the season. Last week in Florida, Medlen went 6 and allowed 5 runs on 8 hits and a walk with 8 K. He got a no-decision in a game the Braves eventually came back to win 10-5.

Cueto doesn’t blow anyone away, mostly because, well, he doesn’t blow that many hitters away. But he has been very good in 2010. He is 10-2 in 20 starts with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has 11 QS and the Reds are 13-7 with him on the mound. Cueto has 1 complete game shutout this season. His numbers at home are not quite as good as on the road but that’s to be expected. He is 5-1 in 9 starts at the GAB with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has thrown QS in 6 of his 9 home starts and the Reds are 6-3 in those games.

Cueto has really been on a roll over his last 7 starts. Since June 18th, Cueto is 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 46.2 innings. Cueto has thrown 5 QS over those last 7 starts, though the Reds are just 4-3 in those games.

Saturday

Jair Jurrjens vs. Bronson Arroyo

Jurrjens was not great in his last outing but he has been pretty solid since coming back from the DL. In 10 starts overall this year he is 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has 5 QS and the Braves are 6-4 with him on the mound. In his 5 starts since returning from the DL, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 31.2 innings. He has made 3 QS over that stretch and the Braves are 4-1 in those 5 games. Jurrjens’ numbers on the road still look awful, as he is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 5 starts away from Turner Field. He’s pitched 2 QS on the road this year and the Braves are only 1-4 in his 5 road starts.

Arroyo is a hard guy to figure out. At times he looks like an average pitcher at best. He is also capable of going through stretches of dominance. Fortunately for the Reds, Arroyo has been good more often than not in 2010. He is 10-6 in 21 starts with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has tossed 2 CG and 12 QS. The Reds are 13-8 with Arroyo on the mound.

Like Cueto, Arroyo’s numbers are not quite as good at home due to the GAB being such a hitter’s park. He is 4-3 in 10 home starts and the Reds are just 5-5 in those games. He has a 4.61 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP at home. Arroyo has thrown 5 QS and 1 CG at home in 2010. Arroyo has also been very hot lately. In fact, Arroyo’s hot stretch began on June 17th, a day before Cueto really got rolling. Over his last 8 starts, Arroyo is 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. 6 of his last 8 starts have been QS.

Sunday

Tommy Hanson vs. Edinson Volquez

Ugh. Watching Hanson pitch lately has been almost as unpleasant as watching Derek Lowe pitch. He’s very frustrating. He can’t quite put it all together and shut the opposition down like you think he’s capable of doing. He struggles to put hitters away at times. He loses control out of the blue. He makes mistakes that always seem to come back to bite.

Hanson is now just 8-7 in 21 starts with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has made 10 QS and the Braves are 13-8 in his 21 appearances. On the road Hanson is 4-3 in 10 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has 5 QS on the road and the Braves are 7-3 in his 10 road starts. Since July 3rd Hanson is just 1-2 in 5 starts, but he has pitched fairly well during that stretch, posting a 2.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 29.2 innings. He has thrown 3 QS over those last 5 starts but the Braves have managed only a 2-3 record in those games.

Hanson is the only Braves starter other than Kenshin Kawakami who has faced the Reds in 2010. Hanson has had a number of awful appearances this season but his start against the Reds back on May 20th was his worst of all. He lasted only 1.2 innings and allowed 8 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with 2 K. Amazingly, Hanson ended up taking a no-decision in that game, as Conrad and the Braves shocked Dusty’s boys with a miracle 10-9 win.

It was the 2nd inning that did Hanson in that day, and if his 2010 season has been a bit of a disappointment so far, the 2nd inning has been the cause. To be honest about the situation, Hanson’s 2nd inning problem has gotten close to ridiculous. Outside of the 2nd inning, Hanson has pitched pretty darn well this year. In 99 innings of work excluding the 2nd inning, Hanson has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with opposing batters hitting just .240/.311/.335/.646 off him. He has allowed 5 homers and hit 8 batters in those 99 innings while averaging 9.64 K/9.

And then there are his 2nd inning numbers. Over 20.2 innings of work, Hanson has allowed 26 runs (22 earned) on 36 hits and 6 walks for a 9.58 ERA and a 2.52 WHIP. Batters have hit .391/.452/.543/.995 off of him with 3 homers in the 2nd inning. He has plunked 5 batters in the 2nd inning and has averaged just 6.97 K/9. Those are pretty amazing numbers.

And the fact that his problem has been the 2nd inning makes it all the more weird. Lots of pitchers have problems in later innings, especially when they are young, as they start to lose some of their stuff after a certain number of pitchers. Some pitchers have consistently had trouble in the 1st inning but would then get loose and settled in. Tom Glavine often had difficulty in the 1st inning, particularly during the first half of his career. I’ve even heard of guys struggling in the 4th inning, as they go through the lineup for a 2nd time. But I’ve never heard of anyone consistently sucking in the 2nd inning. Nor does there appear to be any logical reason for it. In fact, the 2nd inning is usually a low scoring inning, as it’s normally the lower part of the batting order at the plate. The only inning that has averaged less runs than the 2nd in the MLB this season is the 9th. Yet for Hanson it’s been a nightmare. It’s like he’s been pitching at Coors Field pre-humidor during the 2nd inning this season.

Edinson Volquez has just recently come back from elbow surgery but he is probably the most talented pitcher on the Reds staff. In 3 starts since returning on July 17th, Volquez is 1-1, having allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and 10 walks with 16 K over just 12 innings. He has not been very effective in either of his last 2 starts. Hopefully he will not find his best stuff on Sunday.

Outlook

I’m not overly confident. You could probably say that I’m scared. I’m a little bit worried that we might all lie awake in bed on Sunday night, unable to sleep, realizing that the entire lead is gone and we are now behind the Phillies in the East. For that to happen the Braves would have to lose all 3 games, and the Phils would have to sweep the Nats. It’s not hard to imagine, is it? We need to get a win. A series win would be awesome. But at the very least we need to avoid a sweep.