The Braves Blog: Washington Series Preview

Okay, so I was a little bit too optimistic about the Braves’ chances in Florida last weekend. But only a little bit. They won 1 game by 5 runs and lost the other 2 games in extra innings, so they very well could have swept. The problem is that they didn’t, they lost 2 of 3, and now they’re in a bit of a rut.

The Braves are still 16 games over .500 at 57-41 (.582) but they are just 23-28 (.451) on the road. They are now just 4-5 in extra inning games and 15-14 in 1-run affairs. Most importantly, the Braves are just 4.5 games in front of the 2nd place Phillies, who have now won 5 straight. The Braves are 5-5 in the 2nd half and just 5-6 over their last 11. With the trade deadline nearing, the Braves now go from one troublesome location (South Florida) to another (Washington D.C.).


Washington Series Preview

If the Marlins and Joe Robbie Stadium have been troublesome for the Braves in recent seasons, the Nationals and Washington D.C. have been torturous. The main reason that the problems with the Nationals have been a bigger deal is that the Nationals have always been worse than the Marlins. The Nats have been an annoying stumbling block for Atlanta since the Expos moved to Washington in 2005. The Braves are just 50-47 overall against the Nats, and they are just 21-27 in D.C.

In 2 series against the Nationals in 2010 things have gone pretty much as usual. The Braves are 3-3 against Washington, with each team scoring 23 runs. In early May, the Braves lost 2 of 3 in Washington, winning the middle game, 7-6 in 10 innings, and losing the finale by 1 run. In late June, the Braves took 2 of 3 from the Nats at Turner Field.

Washington is making progress as a franchise, primarily due to the phenom Stephen Strasburg, whom the Braves have already seen once and will see again in this series. The Nats are 42-57 (.424) and in last place in the East, 15.5 games out of 1st. Despite having been outscored by 14 runs they are 25-21 (.543) at home. They have struggled in close games, as they are 1-6 in extra inning affairs and just 16-19 in 1-run games. But as we saw with the Marlins last weekend, those sorts of things can turn around in a hurry.
Washington has lost 3 straight and they are just 3-7 since the All-Star break. They are 3-9 in their last 12.

The Nats are similar to the Marlins, in that they don’t score as many runs as you might expect. They are 14th in the NL in runs per game; 10th in homers; 10th in batting average; 9th in OBP; 10th in Slugging; and 11th in OPS. Also like the Marlins, the Nationals do a lot of running, as they are 3rd in the NL with 72 SB. They have a 71.3% success rate which is about average.

Strasburg has been better than advertised but the Nationals are still lacking in the pitching department. They are 12th in the NL runs allowed per game; 12th in ERA; and 12th in WHIP. They have been especially weak in the starting pitching department, as they are 13th in starter’s ERA and tied 14th in quality starts. Unlike the Marlins, the Nationals have actually had a solid bullpen, as they are 6th in the NL in BP ERA. They have a save success rate of 65% which is middle of the pack in the NL.

Like Florida, the Nationals are consistently among the worst in defense. 2010 has not been an exception, as the Nationals are among the worst fielding teams in the NL. They are last in errors and fielding percentage, and 11th in defensive efficiency. Poor defense and an overworked bullpen have contributed to the Nats struggles in close games. But again, you can’t merely assume those trends will continue, as the Braves saw last weekend in Florida.


Tuesday

Tommy Hanson vs. Stephen Strasburg

I’m still not sure how sold I am on Hanson as future Cy Young/staff ace. His numbers are nowhere near as impressive as they were last season. It’s not at all unusual for a pitcher to take a step back in his 2nd season. But Hanson just doesn’t seem as tough-minded this season. He hasn’t handled rough spots and adversity as well as I would have liked to see. And what about the fact that Hanson recently switched agents to Scott Boras? Kind of an odd time don’t you think? Anyway, Hanson is now 8-6 in 20 starts with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has 9 QS and the Braves are 13-7 in his 20 starts.

The road has been a mixed bag for Hanson. He is 4-2 in 9 road starts and the Braves are 7-2 in those games. He has thrown 4 QS on the road and has a 3.83 ERA. On the other hand, his WHIP in 9 road starts is an alarming 1.51. Hanson’s only previous appearance against the Nats this year was typical of his 2010 season. On May 5th at Washington, Hanson allowed 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks with 5 K over 6 innings, taking a no-decision in a game the Braves eventually won in extra innings, 7-6.

Hanson’s year has been a grind from the start. However, he has hit a particularly rough stretch over the last month. In his last 6 starts, Hanson is just 1-3 and the Braves are 2-4 in those games. He has tossed 2 QS over those last 6 starts, but in 31 innings he has posted a 6.10 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP, while opposing batters have hit .346 with an .839 OPS off of him.

Stephen Strasburg still isn’t pitching deep into games, and he won’t start pitching deep into games until next spring at the earliest. But while he has been in the game the kid has been fairly dominant. Through 9 starts, Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He has posted 6 QS and fanned 75 in 54.1 innings. The Nats are 6-3 in his 9 starts.

In 5 starts at Nationals Park, Strasburg is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has thrown a QS in 4 of his 5 home starts, and the Nationals are 2-3 in those 5 games. The Braves have already seen Strasburg and they faired as well as any team has against him, though they couldn’t do anything for most of the night and it was the Nationals bullpen that allowed most of the damage. On June 28th in Atlanta, Strasburg went 6.1 innings against the Braves, allowing 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks with 7 K. He wound up taking the loss as the Braves won 5-0.

Wednesday

Tim Hudson vs. Livan Hernandez

Timmy Hudson continues to be the ace of the Braves’ inconsistent starting rotation. He is 10-5 in 20 starts with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Despite 16 QS from Huddy, the Braves are just 11-9 with him on the mound. Hudson has been just slightly less stellar on the road than at home this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 11 road starts. He has thrown a QS in 8 of those 11 starts away from home, yet the Braves are just 5-6 in those games.

Huddy has already faced Washington twice in 2010. On May 6th at Washington, Hudson allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks with 5 K but took a no-decision as the Braves lost 3-2. On June 28th, Hudson faced Strasburg at the Ted and tossed 7 scoreless, allowing just 5 hits and 3 walks while fanning 6 to get the win in the Braves 5-0 victory.


Perhaps no team or fan base is as familiar with Livan Hernandez as Atlanta is. But Livan’s performance this season has surprised everyone. The aging Cuban right hander is 7-6 in 20 starts with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has thrown 14 QS and the Nats are 12-8 with him on the mound. He has thrown 2 CG and a Shutout.

Hernandez has been especially good in 11 home starts in 2010. He is 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP at home. He has thrown a complete game shutout and 8 QS in 11 games at Nationals Park, and the Nationals are 9-2 in those games. He is coming off of a complete game win at Cincinnati during which he allowed just 1 run. The Braves have seen Hernandez once in 2010. Back on May 4th in Atlanta, Hernandez allowed 5 hits and 5 walks and struck out just 1 batter, but he gave up just 2 runs (1 earned) over 5.1 innings, getting the win in a 6-3 Nats victory.


Thursday

Derek Lowe vs. Craig Stammen

Lowe continues to be a tossup. He is now 10-8 in 21 starts with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has thrown 9 QS and the Braves are 11-10 in his 21 appearances. On the road, Lowe is 3-5 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in 11 games. The Braves are just 4-7 in those 11 games. He has thrown 5 QS on the road.

Lowe pitched against the Nats in Atlanta on June 29th, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with 5 K over 5.2 innings. He took the loss as the Braves fell 7-2. Lowe’s inability to pitch deep into games is becoming annoying. He has no QS over his last 3 appearances and did not complete 6 innings in any of those starts. He threw 114 pitches on Friday so he could struggle again to pitch 6+ innings this week.

Craig Stammen is a rarity among crap pitchers, in that he doesn’t even eat innings. In 17 starts this season, the righty is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 93.1 innings. He has averaged less than 5.2 innings per start. He has 7 QS in 17 tries and the Nats are just 5-12 with him on the mound.

Stammen has been better at home than on the road. He is 1-1 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 8 starts at Nationals Park. He has thrown a QS in 4 of 8 home starts and the Nats are 3-5 in those games. The bad news for the Braves is that when they saw Stammen earlier this season he had one of his best starts of the year against them. On June 29th at Atlanta, Stammen held the Braves to just 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks with 4 K over 7.1 innings to get the win as the Nats won 7-2.


Outlook

This is another tricky series for the Braves. I really don’t like the pitching matchups very much to be honest. On the one hand, the Braves will not have to face a lefty starter in this series. However, they will see the young ace Strasburg, as well as Livan, who has given them problems over the years, and Stammen, who shut them down earlier this season. Plus, the Braves always struggle in Washington. The Braves really, really need to win this series. Realistically, winning 2 out of 3 would be great.