The Braves Blog: New York Mutts Series Preview

The Braves keep on getting it done. After winning 2 of 3 in a very exciting series in Philadelphia, the Braves are now back to 15 games over .500 at 50-35. They’ve had a tremendous run and they have just one series left before they can finally take a well deserved (and much needed) break. The Braves enter the final series of the “first half” 3 games ahead of the Mets in 1st place in the East, with the Phils now 5.5 back. It’s good to have the Braves/Mets rivalry back on the stage where it belongs. Though I still wish we were playing in that shithole called Shea.

New York Mets Series Preview

We’re going to be playing the Mutts a bunch over the next few months. While I always relish the chance to squash the Mess, I kind of wish we had gotten to play them more in the 1st half. Jose Reyes is back from his injuries, and at some point they are going to get Carlos Beltran back. That will make their lineup much better. But will their pitching hold up?

New York is 47-38 and they have been down right dominant at home, going 29-14 at whatever you want to call their new stadium this year so far. They’ve outscored opponents 202-129 at home this season. The Braves are still just 20-25 on the road, but they have outscored opponents 198-189 away from home, so their record could easily be better. Neither team comes in red hot. The Mets are just 8-10 over their last 18, while the Braves are 8-7 over their last 15.

So far this season the Mets have gotten the better of the rivalry. They’ve won 4 of the 5 games between the teams in 2010, including the first 4. If this weekend’s series is anything like the first 2 between the teams this year, it will be close and low scoring. In the first series in Queens back in April, the Braves lost all 3 games, going down 5-2, 3-1, and then 1-0 in a game that was called after just 5 innings. In May, the Braves dropped the first game of a quick 2 game series against the Mets at home, 3-2, before taking the second game by the same score. The Mets have pitched an impressive 12 shutouts this year. However, they are just 10-15 in 1-run games and 3-5 in extra innings, while the Braves are 14-12 in 1-run games and 4-3 in extras.

The Mets are obviously comfortable playing at their new park now, though it still seems to be having an effect on their power and run scoring numbers. They are 9th in the NL runs per game and 11th in homers. In addition, the Mets are 13th in walks, 12th in OBP, and 12th in OPS. What they have done well is put the ball in play and steal bases. And they aren’t just stealing a lot of bases; they’re doing it efficiently, swiping 80 bases in 99 tries as a team this year (80.8%).

The Mets pitching has led them to their good record to this point. They are 5th in the NL in runs allowed per game and 5th in ERA. They are tied for 1st in team shutouts and 6th in both starter ERA and reliever ERA. However, some of their pitching success seems a bit shaky. They are 14th in walks and 11th in WHIP in the NL. They have blown 10 saves.
The Mets have been a solid defensive team this year. They are 4th in errors and 4th in Fielding%.

Friday

Tommy Hanson vs. RA Dickey

Dickey has been the surprise success in the rotation that the Mets have needed for a few years now. The knuckler had never had much success prior to coming to the National League this season. In 7 seasons in the AL, Dickey pitched in 144 games, making 48 starts, with a 22-28 record, a 5.43 ERA, and a 1.57 WHIP. Not very impressive. 2010, however, has been a totally different story. In 9 starts with the Mets, Dickey is 6-1 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. The Mets are 6-3 with him on the mound and he has posted a Quality Start in 7 of 9 appearances. Dickey has allowed just 2 homers in 58.1 innings this season.

Dickey has only pitched 3 games at home this year but he has won all 3, posting a 1.33 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP with 15 K over 20.1 innings. All 3 of his home starts have been quality starts and he has yet to yield a homer at whatever you want to call their stadium. Knucklers are tricky and the Braves haven’t seen him yet.

Hanson got back on the right track in his previous start against the Marlins. But that came after back to back rough outings that did a number on his…numbers. Hanson is 8-5 in 17 starts this year. He has a 4.19 ERA and has struck out 98 over 96.2 innings, but his WHIP is up to 1.37, and he has allowed 7 homers and hit 10 batters. Still, the Braves are 12-5 with Tommy on the mound. He has made 8 Quality Starts.

On the road, Tommy is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 8 starts this year, fanning 48 over 46 innings. However, his WHIP on the road is 1.52, and batters have hit .288 with a .774 OPS against him away from Turner. Again though, the Braves have had success with him on the mound, going 6-2 in Hanson’s 8 road starts. 4 of his 8 road starts have been QS. Hanson pitched in the rain shortened 5 inning game in New York back in April, taking a cheap 1-0 loss. He allowed 5 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings in that game, but he struck out 8 and gave up just 1 unearned run.

Saturday

Tim Hudson vs. Mike Pelfrey

Pelfrey got off to a tremendous start this year, but lately he has struggled. He is 10-3 in 17 starts and picked up a Save in his only relief appearance of the year. Pelfrey has a 3.39 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has pitched 11 QS and the Mets are 13-4 in his starts. Pelfrey has been at his best at home, where he is 6-1 in 10 starts with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. 7 of his 10 home starts have been quality starts, and the Mets are 8-2 in those games.

Earlier this season it looked like Pelfrey might be on the verge of ace status. But in his last 13 starts, going back to early May, Pelfrey has been merely decent, going 6-3 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 83 innings. He has yielded 7 dingers in those 13 games, and opposing hitters have batted .291 with a .769 OPS against him. In Pelfrey’s last 5 starts he is 2-2 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP, having allowed 4 homers in 28.1 innings. This will be Pelfrey’s 3rd start of the season against the Braves. He was on the winning end of the 5-inning game back in April, holding the Braves scoreless over 5 innings for the 1-0 win, despite allowing 5 hits and 5 walks. His start in Atlanta on May 17th was more legit, as he gave up just 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks with 3 K over 7.2 innings for the win in the 3-2 Mets victory. In his 2 starts so far against the Braves this year, Pelfrey has allowed 12 hits and walked 7 batters over 12.2 innings, but has allowed just 2 runs and is 2-0.

Timmy Hudson continues to pitch tremendously well, even if the Braves can’t match his performance at the plate with him in the game. Huddy is 8-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 17 starts, but the Braves are just 9-8 in those games. Hudson has notched 14 QS. The only worrisome stat is 9 homers allowed now over 114.1 innings. On the road, Huddy is just 3-2 in 10 starts this year, but he has a solid 2.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 65.2 innings in those 10 starts. The Braves are just 4-6 with Huddy on the mound in his 10 road starts, despite the fact that he has thrown Quality Starts in 7 of those games. 7 of the 9 homers Huddy has allowed this season have come on the road.

Sunday

Derek Lowe vs. Johan Santana

Too bad we have to face Santana in the last game before the break. He’s also coming off his best start of the season. Santana is not the pitcher he was 3 or 4 years ago. He’s just not that guy anymore. But he’s still damn good. In 18 starts in 2010, Santana is 6-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He is coming off a complete game shutout over the Reds. However, Santana has just 78 K in 120 innings this year. In his final season in Minnesota (2007), Santana stuck out 9.7 men per 9 innings; so far this year he has averaged 5.9 K/9. That’s a fairly alarming drop off.

Santana has made 11 QS starts in 2010 but the Mets are only 8-10 with him on the mound. He is 5-3 in 9 home starts this year, posting a 3.13 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in those 9 games. The Mets are 6-3 with Santana pitching at home this year, and he has made 5 QS in 9 tries. Santana has allowed only 1 homer at home all season. Santana has allowed just 1 run on 9 hits and 5 walks over 16 innings in his previous 2 starts.

The Braves only win of the season against the Mets came with Santana on the mound. In the last game played between the two teams back on May 18th, Santana went 7 innings at Turner Field, holding the Braves to 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks, but he took a no-decision in a game the Braves won 3-2. Having tough luck against the Braves are hardly anything new for the left hander. In his career, Santana has made 9 starts against Atlanta, posting a 2.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 60 innings, yet his W-L record against the Braves is just 1-5.

It would be nice if Derek Lowe could have a solid start to end the first half. He has a chance to go into the break with QS in 5 of his last 6 appearances. Lowe is 9-7 in 18 starts this year with a 4.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers are much better than they were a month and a half ago. The Braves are 10-8 with Lowe on the mound, and he has made 9 QS. Unfortunately, Lowe has mostly been rocked on the road. He is 3-4 in 9 road starts with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 53 innings. 5 of his 9 QS have been on the road, but the Braves are just 4-5 in his 9 starts away from Turner Field. Opposing hitters have batted .276 with a .757 OPS against Lowe on the road in 2010.

Lowe was decent but not great in his first start against the Mets earlier this year. On May 17th at the Ted, Lowe went 7 and allowed 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks, also hitting a batter, to take the loss in a 3-2 defeat to the Mutts. But Lowe has been pretty solid recently. Over his previous 5 starts he is 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 33.1 innings.

Outlook

This could be a tough series because the Mets are so hard to beat at home, and because the Braves won’t face any pushovers on the mound. Fortunately, only 1 of the 3 starters the Mets will send out in this series is a lefty. The biggest thing is that the Braves really only have to win 1 of 3 in this series. Even if they lose the series, as long as they take 1 of the games they will go into the All-Star Break with a 2 game lead. On the other hand, a 3-game sweep isn’t out of the question, and that would be a tough way to end a great first half. The way things have been going, however, the Braves may very well take the series and go to the break up 4 games.