The Braves Blog: San Diego Series Preview

The second half of the season got off to a bit of a bumpy start for the Braves, as they split a 4-game series with the struggling Brewers at home, losing the middle 2 games by a total of 9 runs. However, while the Braves stumbled a bit out of the gates, the Phillies and Mets have fallen on their faces. Now the Braves head into a crucial 3 game series at home against the Padres with a lot on the line.

This will be a big series. To begin with, the Mets and Phillies are floundering a bit and the Braves want to keep the pressure on them. The Phils are playing the Cardinals and the Mets are on the road, and both teams are slumping. But both teams stand to get healthier from this point on, and they may be aided by trades at the upcoming deadline. The Braves need to get as many licks in now while they can.

This will also be a bit of a test of this Braves team’s mettle, as they will be going up against the team with the NL’s best record. I certainly didn’t see this season coming from the Padres and we keep expecting them to fade away, but I’m starting to think they may just be for real. No team has played better on the road. They have been the toughest team to score on this season and the Braves have not been scoring a lot of runs lately. The Braves bullpen is a bit banged up, so this could be a challenging series for Atlanta.

San Diego Series Preview

The Braves faced the Padres early in the season in a 3 game series at Petco Park. The opener of that series on April 12th has ended up having a fairly dramatic affect on the standings as San Diego comes to Atlanta this week. Had the Braves won that game—say by the score of 3-1—Atlanta would have the best record in the NL over the Padres by a half of a game, and they would have the best run differential in the National League at +83, 11 runs better than San Diego at +71. But the Braves did not win 3-1; they lost, 17-2. As a result, the Padres have the NL’s best record, a half game better than the Braves, and they have the NL’s best run differential at +88, 22 runs better than the Braves at +66. Due to a quirk in the early season schedule, the Braves had to sit on that horrible loss during an off day in San Diego before playing the final 2 games of the series. Fortunately, the Braves won each of the next 2 games handedly (6-1 and 6-2) to take 2 of 3 in the series.

Looking back, that series win in San Diego is fairly impressive. The Padres come into this series in Atlanta 54-37 (.593) and 4 games up in 1st place in the NL West. As stated before, the Padres are a half game up on the Braves for the best record in the NL. While the Braves have the NL’s best home record at 32-12 (.727), the Padres have been the NL’s best road team this season, compiling a 24-18 (.571) record away from home. The Braves have been quite successful in 1-run games this season, going 15-12 in those contests so far, but the Padres have been the NL’s best in 1-run games, going 19-12 in those games to this point. San Diego comes into this game riding a 4 game win streak, having won their first 3 games of the second half.

The Padres are not a particularly strong offensive team, but they’ve been much, much better than expected. They are 10th in the NL in runs per game, 12th in homers, and 13th in batting. They are 14th in Slugging and in OPS and 10th in strikeouts; however, they are 7th in walks and 10th in OBP. Their best offensive attribute is their speed, as they are 2nd in the NL in steals and have been successful over 71% of the time. The Padres are no offensive juggernaut, but their run production to this point has been more than enough for their pitching staff to work with.

Led by a staff of promising youngsters and a shutdown bullpen, the Padres have been the class of the NL in the pitching department this year. They are 1st in the NL in runs allowed per game, ERA, and WHIP. They are also 2nd in the NL in team shutouts. They are 2nd in the NL in starter ERA. The bullpen has been absolutely dominant. They have the top bullpen ERA in the NL by a mile and they are tied for 2nd in saves. A stellar defensive lineup has also helped the Padres become the toughest team to score on this year. They have committed the fewest errors in the NL, they are 2nd in Fielding%, and they are 1st in Defensive Efficiency.

Having moved on from Trevor Hoffman, the Padres now have another trusted, right handed anchor at the back of the pen in Heath Bell. Bell doesn’t always breeze through the 9th, but he invariably gets the job done by coming up with a strikeout when he needs it. Bell’s 1.34 WHIP is relatively pedestrian for a top notch closer, but he has struck out 52 and allowed only 1 homer over 40.1 innings, helping him convert 26 of 29 save tries. But Bell is only the final piece in an almost impregnable San Diego relief core. In front of Bell there are 4 righty setup men having outstanding seasons, and they are all high strikeout guys. And then they have a situational lefty who has been untouchable in 2010. San Diego has 6 relief pitchers with sub-3.00 ERA’s over at least 28 appearances. 5 of those 6 also have WHIP’s under 1.11!!!

The Padres rotation is solid, if not dominant, and they have several southpaw starters. The only major threat in their lineup is Adrian Gonzalez, but they have been getting enough contribution from other batters in the order to be okay offensively. If you can avoid giving up the random homer and keep the fast guys off the bases, their lineup is manageable. The key, obviously, is to hold down the offense, scratch out a few runs off their starter, and then hang on, as you don’t want to find yourself trailing these guys in the later innings.

Tuesday

Wade Leblanc vs. Jair Jurrjens

In the opener the Braves will be facing a lefty who they have never seen before. That has proven to be a bad combination in the past. One reason to be positive is that Leblanc is not especially tough on left handed batters. In 16 starts in 2010 Leblanc is 4-7 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has thrown 9 Quality Starts and the Padres are 9-7 with him on the mound.

Leblanc has struggled away from Petco Park, going 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 6 road starts this season. He has allowed 7 homers in 31.2 innings on the road in 2010. 2 of his 6 starts away from home have been QS and the Padres are 3-3 in those 6 games. Leblanc has been struggling over the last few weeks. In his last 4 starts, the lefty is 0-3 and has allowed 12 runs on 25 hits and 9 walks over 24 innings. The Padres are just 1-3 in Leblanc’s last 4 appearances, and he has allowed 7 dingers in those 4 games, posting a 4.50 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.

Jair Jurrjens has been solid as a rock since coming off the DL a few weeks ago. JJ is 2-0 in his 3 starts since returning from the hamstring injury and the Braves have won all 3 of those games. He has allowed 5 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks with 13 K over 17.2 innings in those 3 outings for a 2.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has given up a pair of homers over that stretch. The only thing to worry about is that the Padres knocked Jurrjens all around the park earlier this season in San Diego. JJ was the losing pitcher in that 17-2 massacre at Petco Park on April 12th, giving up 8 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with only 1 K over 3.1 innings.

Saturday

Jon Garland vs. Tommy Hanson

The veteran Garland has been a solid member of the Padres rotation this year, making 19 starts, and going 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has tossed 10 QS and the Padres are 11-8 with him on the mound. Like Leblanc, Garland has not been as good away from home, as he is 4-5 in 9 road starts with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, posting QS in 4 of those 9 starts.

Garland has not been pitching as well lately. The innings eating right is 3-4 over his last 8 starts with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. The Padres are 3-5 in those 8 games. Garland faced the Braves as a member of the D-Backs last season and got pounded, allowing 9 runs (8 earned) on 9 hits, a homer, 3 walks, and just 1 K over 2.2 innings. The Braves won that game in Arizona, 10-6, on May 29th of last year.

Tommy Hanson did not start the second half on a positive note, getting hit hard by the Brewers last Friday to continue his mediocre sophomore campaign. Hanson is now just 8-6 in 19starts with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. The Braves are still 13-6 with Hanson on the mound but he has only 8 QS. Pitching at home has not been a major boost for Tommy. He is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 10 starts at Turner Field. He has 4 QS at home in 2010 and the Braves are 6-4 with Hanson on the mound at the Ted.

Tommy has been very good at times but he’s actually been mediocre or below mediocre more often than not. Hanson’s numbers in his last 5 starts are a bit distressing. The Braves are 2-3 in those games, with Hanson going 1-3, but he has allowed 22 runs (19 earned) on 39 hits, 2 homers, 7 BB, and 4 HBP with 23 K over 24.2 innings, amounting to a 6.93 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. Batters have hit .368 with a .882 OPS over that stretch.

Hanson got the win against the Padres in San Diego back on April 14th, but his performance was typical of his 2010 season, as he was shaky throughout. He allowed only 1 run over 6 innings but he gave up 4 hits, 4 walks, and a HBP while fanning 7. The Braves won 6-1.

Thursday

Clayton Richard vs. Tim Hudson

Richard is the toughest starter the Braves will face in this series. The lefty has been remarkably consistent in 2010. While not dominant against left handed batters, he is tougher on left handed hitters than Leblanc. No left handed batter has homered off of Richard this year. In 19 starts Richard is 7-4 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Despite the fact that Richard has tossed QS in 11 of 19 appearances, the Padres are just 10-9 with him on the mound.

Richard hasn’t been as strong on the road as he has been at home in 2010, but he’s been solid. In 8 starts away from Petco, Richard is 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Again, though Richard has 5 QS in 8 games on the road, the Padres are just 4-4 in those 8 games.

The Braves have a few reasons to be confident facing Richard in the finale. Over his last 3 starts Richard has struggled, giving up 16 runs on 24 hits, 3 homers, and 9 BB with 15 K over 18 innings for an 8.00 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. On the other hand, he has gone 1-0 over that stretch and the Padres are 2-1 in those 3 games. Still, the Braves faired pretty well against Richard earlier this season. On April 14th in San Diego, the Braves to score 3 runs on 6 hits off Richard, though he did fan 5 with only 1 walk over 5.1 innings. Richard took the loss in that game, as the Braves won it 6-1.

As usual, Tim Hudson will draw the toughest mound opponent in the series. Huddy is 9-5 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 19 starts this season, but despite tossing QS in 15 of those 19 outings, the Braves are now just 10-9 with him on the mound. Huddy is 5-3 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 8 starts at Turner Field this year, posting QS in 7 of those 8 appearances. His only home start that did not go down as a QS was his last start, when he allowed 6 runs in 6.2 innings against the Brewers, as the Braves lost last Saturday’s game 6-3. However, Huddy was rolling along as usual until late in the game, and even after he got into trouble he could still have easily ended up with a QS and a no-decision.

Hudson held the Brewers to just 1 run through the first 6 innings, but he started to struggle in the 7th. Cox left him in to try and work out of it but he left with the game tied and 2 outs with the bases loaded. Had Peter Moylan retired the next batter Hudson would have ended up allowing 3 runs in 6.2 innings, but Moylan gave up a 3 run triple, thus Hudson’s final line was 6 runs in 6.2 innings.

It’s understandable for Cox to want to give Hudson a chance to pitch deep into games, as he is really the only Braves starter who has been consistently able to do so in 2010, and the Braves have been relying on their pen a lot. Hopefully this time if Hudson needs help the pen will be there to pick him up. That’s actually what happened earlier this season when Timmy faced the Padres. Huddy pitched the rubber match of the series in San Diego back in April and he was the winning pitcher in the Braves 6-2 victory, but it wasn’t his best performance. He gave up just 2 runs over 5.2 innings, but he allowed 6 hits, 5 walks, and a homer, and did not strike anyone out.


Outlook

This is going to be a tough series. I hate to say it, but I’m a little worried heading into this one. It just reminds me of the White Sox series. We’re catching a team that could be started on an extended run. They are throwing 2 lefty starters in the series. They have a lights out bullpen. They are a base stealing team. And we are coming into the series a little bit banged up. If Chipper cannot go we could struggle to score runs, especially against the lefties. In our pen, Kris Medlin and Kenshin Kawakami are trying to readapt to relief roles, Eric O’Flaherty is on the shelf, and Johnny Venters may or may not be serving a suspension. Jessie Chavez has been getting hit hard recently and Mike Dunn still struggles with his control. Making matters worse, Peter Moylan and Billy Wagner have been pitching a lot and could use some rest. I think winning 2 of 3 in this series would be excellent. What the Braves really have to do is avoid a sweep. A 3-4 home stand to begin the second half would be disappointing but it would be a lot better than 2-5.