Tuesday, July 27, 2010

The Braves Blog: Stats and Trends

A Stat-tastic Little Number

So things have gotten tighter in the NL East. The deadline is approaching. We’ve blown some leads and we’re in a bit of a rut. Oh yeah, and tonight we have to face Strasburg. But while we wait to see what comes next, here are some mostly positive numbers for Braves people to consume.


Bats heating up on Cue

The Braves bats normally spring to life around the All-Star break, and so far in the 2nd half Atlanta’s hitters are having quite a bit of success. Check out these post-break numbers.

Jason Heyward: 10 games, 17 for 39 (.436/.522/.487/1.009) with 2 doubles, 10 runs, 3 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K, and 2 SB in 3 attempts.

Matt Diaz: 9 games, 8 for 21 (.381) with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 6 runs, 9 RBI, 1 BB, and 3 K.

Brian McCann: 9 games, 11 for 33 (.333/.421/.606/1.027) with 3 homers, 3 runs, 14 RBI, 4 BB, and 9 K.

Eric Hinske: 9 games, 6 for 18 (.333) with a double, 2 homers, 5 RBI, 4 BB, and 4 K.

Alex Gonzalez: 10 games, 13 for 40 (.325) with 4 doubles, a triple, 4 runs, 2 RBI, 3 BB, and 7 K.

Melky Cabrera: 10 games, 8 for 27 (.296) with 3 doubles, a triple, 3 runs, 2 RBI, 3 BB, and 3 K.

Chipper Jones: 9 games, 7 for 25 (.280) with a double, a homer, 6 RBI, 5 BB, and 4 K.

Martin Prado: 10 games, 13 for 48 (.271) with 3 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, 10 runs, 3 RBI, 3 BB, and 4 K.


Other Batting Numbers

Brian McCann has once again become a feared and productive bat in the Atlanta lineup. Since May 11th, Mac has played in 58 games and has hit .293/.378/.512/.890 with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 42 RBI, 24 BB, and 44 K.

Chipper continues to battle injuries, but after looking totally finished for much of the first half, CJ has been much better since mid-June, even showing occasional power. Since June 15th, Chipper has played in 30 games, hitting .300/.388/.490/.878 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 17 RBI, 15 BB, and 17 K.

No doubt Martin Prado has cooled off a bit; it was inevitable. But while Tino’s average has slipped, he has hit with power more often in recent games. And Martin’s “slump” has been more apparent due to the fact that he comes to the plate more often than anyone else in the Braves lineup. Even still, since June 10th, Prado has played in 38 games and has hit .319/.365/.566/.931 with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 8 homers, 27 runs, 14 RBI, 12 BB, 22 K, and 3 SB in 3 attempts. Pretty damn impressive. I’d like to seem him walk more, but that’s being a little picky at this point.

Troy Glaus is the one Braves hitter who is still locked in a bit of a mid-season slump (Excluding Nate McLouth of course because he just sucks). The strange thing is that Glausy is still walking and he isn’t striking out all that much. He just isn’t hitting for any power at all. The lack of power also takes a toll on the number of hits he gets, as he is mostly a fly ball hitter and he doesn’t have the speed to beat out anything on the ground. Since June 24th, Glaus has played in 23 games, hitting just .175/.323/.238/.561 with 5 doubles, 0 homers, 6 RBI, 15 BB, and 12 K. Clearly the average, the slugging, and the lack of a single homer are all discouraging. On the other hand, Glaus is still taking walks which keeps him from totally wrecking the lineup like, say, Jeff Francoeur. Hopefully Glaus will find his power stroke again soon. He could use some time off but we don’t have many other options.


Our Relief could use some Help

It’s obvious that the Braves bullpen is struggling and scrambling at this point. Unfortunately, the 2 guys with the stuff to come in and help out right now—Mike Dunn and Craig Kimbrel--are both struggling from the same inescapable problem: they simply cannot throw strikes with anywhere near enough consistency to pitch with success in the Majors.

Dunn is now 25 and is still clearly not over the control problems which led the Yankees to send him our way. Dunn’s control has been an issue in the minors and it’s a virtual cop killer-on-the-loose road block at the Major League level. In 4 appearances with the Braves this season Dunn has thrown 2.1 innings and has yet to allow a run. Good, right? Well, yes, except that he’s averaging 19.3 walks per 9 innings. He’s allowed 3 hits and 5 walks with 2 K over 2.1 innings. In his last appearance, with the Braves leading 9-0 in the 8th, Dunn came on and threw 19 pitches, with only 4 going for strikes. He walked 3 and recorded only 1 out before being pulled. In his 4 games, Dunn has thrown 29 strikes and 32 balls. I have 2 pieces of advice for the Bravos concerning Mr. Dunn. Number 1: he should be sent down now and replaced by someone who can at least make the other team swing. Number 2: the Braves should trade him to the next team that shows interest or puts any value in him. I’m sure I’m totally wrong on this, but it doesn’t seem like many guys with big arms who are too wild to pitch in the Majors at 25 end up making it.

Kimbrel’s situation is not nearly as bleak. He’s just 22 and he isn’t quite as wild. Still, he is walking too many guys at AAA, and in the Majors it has been an even bigger issue. In 8 games with the big club this season, Kimbrel has allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 10 walks with 15 K over 8.1 innings. Obviously he has fared better than Dunn, and once Eric O’Flaherty is healthy, I believe it would make more sense to have Kimbrel in the pen than Dunn. However, in 4 of Kimbrel’s 8 appearances with the Braves he gave up at least 2 free passes. He had just a 95-87 strike-to-ball ratio during his 8 outings. And again, the problem has persisted even at AAA.

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