2010 MLB at the All-Star Break
We’ve reached the traditional midway point of one of the quieter Major League Baseball seasons in recent memory. I would say it’s been a great year so far, except that I really can’t claim objectivity in that area, as the success of the Braves has prevented me from seeing this MLB season as anything other than great. There’s no denying that Major League Baseball’s first half has been particularly muted this year. Both internal and external issues have led to the Boys of Summer being held mostly out of the spotlight so far in 2010. The initial reaction might be to view that as a problem for Baseball. That’s not the way I see it, however. To be honest, Baseball could use a little time under the radar.
The Mid-Summer Classic marks the point in the year when baseball takes over the sporting spotlight. There are always other things to draw our attention in the late spring and early summer months. But this year was different. No matter what happened on the field during the first half of this year’s MLB season, Baseball would probably have been overshadowed. Two types of external forces combined to keep baseball on the back burner of the sporting world this spring/early summer: unusually intriguing annual events and surprise/unusual stories.
This year’s non-baseball sporting events of the late spring and early summer months were all more interesting than usual. Spring training is, by nature, fairly boring, and March Madness always drowns out baseball for a few weeks. Usually, however, by the time of the Final Four and the National Championship Game, things taper off as brackets are busted just as MLB opening day arrives. But this year the NCAA Basketball Final had more national interest than usual, as Duke (the most polarizing team in the country, and the only college basketball team that has any affect on ratings) was playing a team being billed as “Cinderella.” The annual major golf tournaments always draw attention, but perhaps never more so than this year, with Tiger Woods coming back from perhaps the most publicized sex scandal in the history of American athletics. Golf fans were not the only ones paying attention to the Masters this year during the first full week of MLB games. The NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs always garner part of the spotlight during late spring/early summer, but this year’s playoffs were more intriguing than usual. The Stanley Cup Finals featured teams from two of the biggest American sports cities (Chicago and Philadelphia) and the series went 6 games. The NBA Finals featured by far the two biggest and most famous franchises in basketball (the Lakers and Celtics) and it went 7 games. These two events hogged much of the attention in June.
Then there were the “other” happenings in sports this summer which were either unusual or unexpected. The late spring/early summer is usually a dead time for College Football. In 2010, however, CFB was front page fodder as the sport was wrapped up in a frantic “realignment” craze. The World Cup only comes around once every 4 years but this year’s WC became a bigger event among traditional American sports fans than ever before. The biggest reason for this was probably ESPN’s vigorous promotion and non-stop coverage of the event. In addition, the USA team went into the tournament with momentum and that carried over through the first few weeks, as the Yanks advanced to the knockout stage. The presence of the vuvuzelas and the World’s Game were constant throughout June and the first couple of weeks of this month. Lastly, even after the NBA season finally came to a close in late June, attention only increased on the sport. This was due to the most anticipated and intensely covered free agency period in history, culminating with Lebron James’ bizarre “selection show.”
The external forces probably had more to do with baseball being relegated to the back pages than anything that occurred within MLB. But there were some internal forces that had an impact on that as well. For starters, the New York Yankees were coming off of a World Series Championship, meaning there was less pressure on the most polarizing franchise in the sport. The Chicago Cubs, perhaps MLB’s most popular team, have been a disappointment this season. The surprise teams (Cincinnati and San Diego) come from “small markets” and haven’t generated much interest nationally. Pitching has dominated hitting, and no matter what anyone says, homeruns and offense are just more exciting than pitcher’s duels. And as the sport has transitioned out of the juiced area, the milestones and records are just not there to be chased. Many of the game’s best known players have faded this season. While these developments may be troubling at the moment, there is one thing which has kept MLB out of the spotlight which has been unquestionably positive: the lack of performance enhancing drug stories.
First Half Memories
When I look back at the 2010 first half in 5 years, I have no idea what I’ll recall, because all the seasons tend to run together for me, and I certainly can’t differentiate between halves. However, as I look back at the 2010 first half today, 3 days after its conclusion, these are the things I remember.
The Year of the No-Hit Bid: We’ve seen 4 no-hitters, including a pair of perfect games, as well as an “imperfect game” that remains the biggest moment of the season to date. There have been scores of near no-hitters and legitimate no-hit bids.
Vets MIA: This has been the year of the disappearing former star. Across the Majors, aging stars have seen their declines hastened. This development was epitomized in Junior Griffey’s mid-game nap and aborted swan song with the Mariners.
Advantage Swings Back to the Pitchers: For the first time in decades, the pitchers hold the upper hand in baseball. Pitching came back with a vengeance this spring. The leader boards are flooded with great young pitchers. Pitchers thought to be washed up or never has beens have found success.
The Strasburg Phenomenon: The most hyped rookie pitcher of all-time has turned in a rare feat: he has been as good as advertised.
Celebration Scale Back: It was only a matter of time before enough players of value were injured in post-game celebrations to cause a sport wide backlash. The only surprise was that the change came about due to one devastating casualty of celebration rather than several smaller ones.
Bad Umping: There have been several highly publicized errors by umpires, most notably the missed call at first base that cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game. Much of this has been due to the fact that every play of every game is now recorded by multiple cameras, and every missed call becomes part of the 24-hour sports media cycle. But in general, it seems to me that umpiring across the board has been as bad as or worse than ever this year. Particularly in the area of calling balls and strikes, I have never seen it worse than it has been so far in 2010. Of course the behavior of certain umps has drawn more negative attention to the situation than mere blown calls would have.
Where are the Rhubarbs?: Where have all the brawls gone? Where is the bad blood? There are a lot of factors at play here but I just have to ask: are there any teams or players on opposing teams that don’t like each other?
Mid-Season Awards
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. I’ll take Miguel by a smidge over Justin Morneau. MC leads the AL in hitting and OPS; is 2nd in Runs Created and RC27; and tied 2nd in homers.
NL MVP: Joey Votto. I’ll take Votto by a nano-smidge over Albert Pujols. Votto leads the NL in OPS, RC, and RC27; and he’s tied for 1st in homers.
AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee. I guess. Too much is still undetermined at this point.
NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson. I basically ignore W-L records for pitchers, so JJ has passed by Ubaldo Jimenez in my opinion. He leads the NL in ERA and WHIP, and has 123 K in 122 innings.
AL ROY: Brennan Boesch. He leads all qualified rookies in average, OBP, Slugging, OPS, homers, and RBI.
NL ROY: Gaby Sanchez. I have to go with Sanchez at the moment due to Jason Heyward’s injuries and the small number of games pitched by Stephen Strasburg.
Most Surprising Team: San Diego Padres. Absolutely stunning. I had them losing well over 100 games.
Most Disappointing Team: Chicago Cubs. The Cubs (happily) are the train wreck of the 2010 season to this point.
I also think that the world will come to an end before the year 2010…wait
Yeah, so I actually thought that my predictions were going pretty well as I looked back to see what exactly my picks had been in early April. I mean I knew I had been off on a few things (way off on some things) but I thought I was looking pretty good in general. I am not looking good, and I guess I never was. At the All-Star break only 1 of my 6 predicted division winners is in 1st place (New York Yankees), and if the season ended today I would have predicted just 2 of the 8 teams to make the playoffs (Yanks and Braves). On the plus side, of the 19 teams I picked to have winning records, 15 are currently over .500. That’s about all the good news that there is about my picks at this point.
It’s not looking good for my predictions. 13 teams are currently on pace to win at least 10 games more or 10 games less than I predicted. Here’s a quick look at my most errant picks at this point.
Kansas City: Predicted Wins: 62. Projected Wins: 72. Margin of Error: 10
Milwaukee: Predicted Wins: 83. Projected Wins: 73. Margin of Error: 10
Tampa Bay: Predicted Wins: 88. Projected Wins: 99. Margin of Error: 11
Anaheim: Predicted Wins: 95. Projected Wins: 84. Margin of Error: 11
Florida: Predicted Wins: 88. Projected Wins: 77. Margin of Error: 11
Philadelphia: Predicted Wins: 100. Projected Wins: 87. Margin of Error: 13
Toronto: Predicted Wins: 66. Projected Wins: 80. Margin of Error: 14
Baltimore: Predicted Wins: 68. Projected Wins: 53. Margin of Error: 15
Cincinnati: Predicted Wins: 73. Projected Wins: 88. Margin of Error: 15
Chicago Cubs: Predicted Wins: 87. Projected Wins: 71. Margin of Error: 16
Arizona: Predicted Wins: 81. Projected Wins: 62. Margin of Error: 19
Seattle: Predicted Wins: 84. Projected Wins: 64. Margin of Error: 20
San Diego: Predicted Wins: 60. Projected Wins: 94. Margin of Error: 34
I don’t feel too bad about Seattle. I always screw up on Seattle and my prediction was much more modest than what many others were claiming. But the San Diego prediction is hard to defend. The thing is, I was absolutely sure that the Padres were one of the worst teams in baseball. There was nothing I felt more certain about going into this season. I wrote that, “if they don’t lose at least 100 games I’ll be surprised.” They have a shot to win 100 games. So color me shocked and awed.
A Look at the Mid-Summer Standings
Currently 8 of 14 AL teams are over .500 (3 AL East; 3 AL Central; 2 AL West) and 9 of 16 NL teams are over .500 (3 NL East; 2 NL Central; 4 NL West). Last season, 8 AL teams finished the year with winning records (3 AL East; 2 AL Central; 3 AL West) and 8 NL teams finished with winning records (3 NL East; 2 NL Central; 3 NL West).
There are 2 AL teams with winning percentages of at least .600 (Yanks and Rays), while no NL team has a winning percentage of .600. Last season, the Yanks were the only team in the MLB with a .600 winning percentage or better. The Yanks led the Majors with 103 wins last year and they are on pace to win 103 again in 2010. Baltimore had the worst record in the AL last season at 64-98; they have the worst record in the AL again this year, only now they are on pace to finish 53-109.
The Dodgers led the NL last season with 95 wins; the Braves are on pace to win the NL with 96 wins in 2010. The Pirates were 62-99 in 2009 and they are on pace to finish 55-107 with the worst NL record in 2010. Washington had the worst record in the Majors last season at 59-103 and they were the only team in the bigs to lose 100 games. There are currently 3 teams on pace to lose 100 in 2010, including the D-Backs, who are on pace to finish 62-100.
Uncomfortably Close
The tightness of the division races in each league has been obvious to all baseball fans. Comments have been made about how competitive things are in each division. I must admit, however, I had no real conception of exactly how narrow the leads are at the midway point across baseball in comparison to the recent past, until I went back and checked things out.
At the All-Star break, the biggest lead for any 1st place team is 4.5 games (Texas over Anaheim). The 1st place teams in the NL Central, NL West, AL East, and AL Central hold leads of 2 games or less. There is a tie atop the NL Wild Card standings, and the lead for the current AL Wild Card leader (Tampa) is 3 games. The 3rd place team in the NL East is within 4.5 games; the 3rd place team in the NL West is just 4 games back; the 3rd place team in the AL East is only 5 games back; and the 3rd place team in the AL Central is just 3.5 games out of 1st. Nothing is over, to be sure.
This is the first time under the modern alignment (the teams were separated into 6 divisions in 1994) that the largest lead for any 1st place team at the All-Star break is less than 5 games. You have to go back to 1992, when there were 2 divisions in each league, to find the last year in which the largest lead for a 1st place team at the midway point was just 4.5 games. In the strike shortened season of 1994, the first year under the current alignment, the biggest lead for any division leader at the break was 5 games. From 1995-2009, at least 1 division leader had a lead of 6 games or more at the All-Star break each season.
Along with the lack of cushion for the division leaders, there has also been a fair amount of change atop the divisions throughout the first half of this season. Boston had the first lead in the AL East (0.5 games); then the Jays took a 1 game lead; then Tampa held 1st for 68 days through June 19th, leading by as many as 6 games; now the Yanks have taken over and have led by as many as 3 games. The Twins held the AL Central lead for 88 days through July 4th, building a 4.5 game lead at one point; then the Tigers led by a game; now the White Sox have a 0.5 game lead after being 9.5 games out of 1st earlier in the year. The Oakland A’s held the lead in the AL West for 34 days through June 3rd, leading by as many as 2.5 games; then the Angels led by a half game; the Rangers have led for 70 days, with their biggest lead being 5.5 games.
The story has been no different in the National League. The Mets led the NL East by a game early in the year; the Phillies then took over the lead as expected, holding it for 52 days, and building a 5 game cushion; the Braves, once 6.5 games out of 1st, have held the lead for 48 days, claiming a 5.5 game lead at one point. The Cardinals led the Central for 65 days, building a 5 game lead at one point. The Reds have led for 45 days, never by more than 3 games. In the NL West, the Giants led early on by 2 games; then the Dodgers took over briefly; the Padres have led for 79 days, with their biggest lead being 4.5 games. Of the teams 17 teams currently over .500 in the MLB, only the Rockies have failed to be alone in 1st place atop their division at the end of at least 1 day this season.
Power Down; Scoring Off; Offense Out
Halfway through 2010, offensive production league wide is at its lowest point in many years. The team average runs per game is 4.46, down from 4.61 last season. This will be the 4th straight year that the average has gone down. A team average R/G of 4.46 would be the lowest since 1992. The average has been at least 4.59 every year since 1993.
Following that exact process, the team average hits per game is 8.82, down from 8.96 last season. This would be the 4th straight year that the average has gone down, and it would be the lowest average since 1992. Since 1993, the average team H/G has been at least 8.92 every season.
The drop in power has been impossible to ignore. The team average homeruns per game is 0.94, down from 1.04 last season. This would be the lowest team average HR/G since 1993. Since 1994, the team average per game has been at least 1.00 each season. For those 80’s nerds giddy over the prospect of stolen bases taking over the sport again, there is some bad news. While stolen bases are increasing, the rise of steals has not matched the decline of homers. The team average SB per game so far in 2010 is 0.62, up from 0.61 last year. That would be the highest average since 2001. But while homerun frequency is approaching the levels of the pre-juiced era, stolen base frequency is nowhere near the 80’s/Astroturf levels.
In addition to the above numbers, team batting average; OBP; Slugging Percentage; and OPS are also all down. The average team batting average at the midway point is .259, down from .262 last season. This would be the 4th straight season of decline, and it would be the lowest mark since 1992. OBP is at .329, down from .333 last year. This would be the lowest mark since 1992. The average team SLG is at .406, down from .418 last season. This would be the lowest mark since 1993. Since 1994, the average team SLG has been at least .416 each year. The average team OPS is at .735, down from .751 last season. This would be the lowest mark since 1992.
It is interesting and perhaps very telling that while power has gone down across the board, strikeouts have not. At the All-Star break, the average team strikeout/game mark is at 6.94, up from 6.91 last season. This would be the 5th straight year of a rising average, and would break last season’s record high average.
The decline in offense is not as obvious at the top or bottom of the league in runs scored/runs allowed. The Yankees led MLB in R/G last year, averaging 5.65 runs per game; this year the Red Sox are leading at 5.47 runs per game. The Yankees led all teams in homers last season with 244; the Blue Jays are on pace to hit 248 in 2010. Baltimore allowed 5.41 runs per game last year; the D-Backs are allowing 5.66 runs per game this year. Baltimore had the worst ERA in baseball last year at 5.15; the D-Backs currently hold the league’s worst ERA at 5.27.
Individually, the homerun leaders have picked up the pace a bit lately. For a while there it was looking like the league leaders in homers would have some of the smallest totals in 25 or 30 years. It still could end up that way. As for now, 2 NL players are on pace for at least 40 homers, and 3 AL players are on pace to hit 40 or more dingers. No player is currently on pace to reach the 45 homer mark. Jose Bautista leads the ML with 24 homers and is on pace to hit just 44 all season. That would be the lowest total for the ML leader in homers since 1994, and the lowest in a non-strike season since 1992. Think about this: in 1994, Matt Williams had hit 43 homers when the season was canceled in August due to the strike.
So, Logically, if She Weighs as Much as a Duck…
Of course as offense has continued to decrease this season, pitching has risen to control the game. The team average ERA is currently 4.16, down from 4.32 last season, and on pace for the lowest average since 1992. Team average WHIP at the All-Star break is 1.364, down from 1.390 last season, and on pace for the best mark since 1992. The individual leader boards are chalked full of pitchers posting very low ERA’s and WHIP’s.
There are currently 18 qualified pitchers with ERA’s below 3.00; 9 of those have ERA’s under 2.50. Josh Johnson leads all qualified MLB pitchers with a 1.70 ERA. Obviously there is a lot of baseball left to be played, but if those numbers remain the same they would be dramatically different from even last season, when 11 pitchers finished with ERA’s under 3.00; 4 had ERA’s under 2.50; and no qualified pitcher had a sub-2.00 ERA.
Similarly, there are 5 qualified pitchers who currently boast WHIP’s under 1.05, and 3 of those have sub-1.00 WHIP’s. Cliff Lee leads all qualified pitchers with a 0.95 WHIP. Last season only 3 pitchers had WHIP’s under 1.05, and no qualified pitcher had a sub-1.00 WHIP at season’s end.
Ubaldo Jimenez appeared well on his way to a runaway NL Cy Young Award earlier this season. While Jimenez has cooled off some and would no longer be the favorite to win the award, he is none the less 15-1 and on pace to win 28 games. While Jimenez is unlikely to become the first pitcher to reach the 25-win mark since Bob Welch won 27 in 1990, if he were to win 28 in this age of 5-man rotations, I believe it would really be a more impressive total than the now unreachable 31 victories posted by Denny McLain in 1968, the last “Year of the Pitcher.”
As great as Jimenez and Josh Johnson have been, they are not on the level of Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay when it comes to going the distance and dominating over 9 innings. Complete Games and Complete Game Shutouts have become increasingly rare in baseball. Halladay and Lee are two pitchers who are still willing and able (and allowed) to get the job done alone on a somewhat regular basis. At the break, Halladay leads the NL with 7 CG, while Lee holds the AL lead with 6 CG. Both have a chance to join CC Sabathia as the only pitchers to reach double digits in CG since the turn of the millennium. Even more impressive, Halladay has already tossed 3 CG shutouts this season, putting him 1 away from his total of all of last season, and giving him a chance to become the first pitcher since the 1980’s to throw more than 5 shutouts in a single season.
Milestones within Reach if anyone cares
There have been few career milestones reached so far this season, and the ones that have been reached have been summarily ignored. Andruw Jones’ 400th homerun got less coverage than an exhibition WNBA game. Billy Wagner’s 400th save similarly passed with little fanfare. Jim Thome’s rise up the ranks of the all-time homerun leader board has gone virtually unnoticed. It has gotten to the point now that career homerun milestones are viewed to be as insignificant as Duke beating an unranked non-conference opponent at Cameron Indoor Stadium. What’s most annoying about this is that it was obvious 10 years ago--to anyone with knowledge and understanding of the history of baseball--that due to the increase in power across the sport during the modern era, the all-time homerun records needed to be viewed with the realities of different eras kept in mind. Nobody thought that Eddie Murray was a superior slugger to Lou Gehrig when he surpassed the Iron Horse’s homerun total, yet Murray’s breakthrough into the 500 club was still noted and celebrated as some sort of praiseworthy accomplishment. Now, because of all of the PED fallout and rehashing and hand wringing, no movement along the all-time homer leader board is allowed to be noticed unless it is for the purpose of pointing out that it doesn’t mean anything because of PED’s. This absolutely includes the feats of Jim Thome, a guy who has managed to escape the steroid stigma entirely to this point.
The most celebrated milestone of the first half of the 2010 season was Jamie Moyer’s dubious distinction as the all-time leader in homers allowed. Many spun it as a badge of honor and a testament to the fact that Moyer has been able to survive and pitch so many games in this hitter’s era. I’ll buy that, but Jamie Moyer’s greatest feat has been to tally up all of the wins, innings, appearances, starts, strikeouts, and homers allowed over all of these seasons without ever being one of the top 30 pitchers in the game at any point in his entire career.
Another of Moyer’s great achievements has been to do all of these things, and play a game for all of these years, making all of this money, all the while appearing as if suffering through a horrible bout of constipation, while pouring over financial data and listening to a rusty nail rake up and down a chalkboard. He puts in his 90 minutes of “work” once a week for one of the best teams in baseball, making thousands with every lobbed pitch, and whether he gives up 8 runs or 0 runs, the expression on his face as he walks off the mound at the end of his outing will convey the same exact message: “No, this is really no fun for me. No, thanks, but this is really not fun for me. I’m having no fun at all. This is no fun.”
Hopefully Moyer’s milestones are over. There are some other player milestones to look for in the 2nd half. Although it will no doubt be ignored or even derided, Jim Thome is 9 homeruns away from tying Mark McGwire for 9th place on the all-time list, and 12 homers away from Frank Robinson (another no fun guy) for 8th. Continuing on this track, Alex Rodriguez is almost certain to hit number 600 in the coming weeks, as he is just 3 shy of that once hallowed mark. A-Rod is 12 homers away from tying Sammy Sosa for 6th all-time. Manny Ramirez is just 9 homers away from tying Reggie Jackson for 13th on the list, but that seems less and less likely to occur as the season goes on, and Manny either underwhelms at the plate or doesn’t play.
Amazingly, Albert Pujols is just 13 homeruns away from hitting career #400. To be at that mark this soon, while also holding a career batting average well over .300 is quite impressive, regardless of era. CC Sabathia is just 2 wins shy of 150 for his career. While I don’t value wins and losses for pitchers very highly, in this day and age, winning 150 over a relatively short period of time is something to appreciate. If people are going to ignore Jim Thome’s HR totals because of the era he played in, then CC’s 150th win should be cause for a parade, as clearly his 150 wins and Cy Young’s 511 wins must be viewed through the context of their respective eras.
Barring a catastrophic injury, the Great Mariano Rivera will reach the 550 save mark early in the 2nd half, as he is now just 4 off of that mark. Billy Wagner will need 19 saves during the rest of what he claims will be his final season in order to catch John Franco for 4th on the all-time saves list and tie him for 1st among lefties. Then there is the somewhat sad story of Trevor Hoffman, who needs only 4 saves to reach 600, but has lost his closer’s job in Milwaukee and hasn’t notched a save since May 7th.
Other Things to Watch for in the Second Half
Can the Braves unseat the 3-time defending NL East Champion Phillies in Bobby Cox’s final season?
Will the Reds fade behind Dusty Baker’s multiple Manager of the Year Award tactics of panic?
Will the Padres emerge from the annual NL West free for all, and if not, will Adrian Gonzalez soon be gone from San Diego despite their surprise success this season?
Can Boston get healthy enough to challenge the Yanks? Can the Rays avoid last year’s slide?
Are the White Sox really, really hot; or really, really good?
Can Texas survive the heat and the sale of the franchise amid bankruptcy?
With Cliff Lee already off the market and so many teams still in the hunt for the postseason, will this be the quietest trade deadline ever?
When will the Nationals shutdown Stephen Strasburg?
Will Lebron James hold a one-hour special to announce to Jim Gray that he will be taking his talents to the Bronx come playoff time because, like all Miami sports fans, he is a front running Yankees fan who still wants to be a New Yorker?
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