The Braves Blog: Florida Series Preview

It hasn’t been pretty, but the Braves have rebounded from their sweep at the hands of the White Sox to win 4 of 6 so far on their 9 game home stand. They’ve been fortunate to win each of the last 2 series. The Braves are struggling right now as we near the All-Star break. There are 3 tough series with division foes remaining before the break, and I feel this is an important stretch of the season. The Braves need to avoid a major slide here in order to have some momentum heading into the 2nd half.

While the Braves have stumbled a bit lately, things are still going their way. To begin with, despite not playing very well over a 9 game stretch, they have still managed to go 4-5 in that time. In addition, the Mets and Phillies have had their own issues. At 46-33, the Braves are 2 games ahead of New York and 4 games in front of Philly going into this weekend’s series with Florida. We’re now 28-9 at Turner Field. Can you believe it was just last year that the Braves ended up under .500 at home, at one point losing 11 of 14 at Turner Field?

Florida Series Preview

Braves fans are quite familiar with all of the other NL East teams, including the Marlins. Unfortunately for Florida, all of the major stories concerning the Marlins this season have been negative ones. It’s basically the same old story in Miami. Nobody is coming to the games and ownership seems desperate to sell tickets and/or make a buck. The Marlins sold unpurchased tickets from Roy Halladay’s perfect game against the Fish; a maneuver that rubbed many people the wrong way, as they seemed to be willing to exploit their team’s failure in order to get revenue. Then there was the vuvuzela fiasco, which ownership refused to admit was a bad idea. The big on field story was the public feud between manager Fredi Gonzalez and franchise player Hanley Ramirez. While the players universally backed Gonzalez in his handling of Ramirez’s lack of effort, the skipper appears to have lost the war in the end, as he was recently fired. The Fish are just 3-5 since Fredi’s firing.

Edwin Rodriguez may turn out to be the greatest manager in the history of the franchise, but I still think the whole situation is humorous. Gonzalez was hired when the team fired Joe Girardi, who was then hired by the Yankees to replace Joe Torre. Now Gonzalez has been axed, and he may very well be hired by the Braves to replace Bobby Cox. Girardi was the NL Manager of the Year in his only season as Marlins skipper, and Gonzalez’s teams finished over .500 in 2 of his 3 full seasons as manager of the team. All of this despite the fact that this is the most financially hamstrung club in professional sports. I mean what’s wrong with this picture here?

Anyway, the Marlins have been a bit of a disappointment on the field this season. After winning 84 games and finishing 3rd in 2008, and then winning 87 games and finishing 2nd last season, the Marlins hoped to compete for the division title this season. After 78 games, the Marlins are just 37-41 and in 4th in the East, 8.5 games out of 1st. However, much of the problem has been flat out bad luck. The Fish have a +26 run differential. They are a miserable 8-15 in 1-run games, and they have lost 4 of 5 extra inning affairs. Their expected W-L record is more like 42-36.

I realize that I don’t need to convince Braves fans that the Marlins are dangerous. We are just 10-11 against Florida since the start of last year. Since 2006, the Braves are 41-35 against the Marlins, 21-16 at home. Earlier this year the Braves won 2 of 3 from the Marlins in Florida. While the Braves have had more success against the Marlins in Atlanta than they have in Miami over the years, they dropped 6 of 9 at home to Florida last year, and the Marlins are not a bad road team this season (16-18 away from home).

The 2010 version of the Marlins has been similar to the teams of the last few years. They are a very dangerous offensive team and they have a starting rotation capable of shutting down teams over extended periods of time, but they have a vulnerable bullpen and they struggle in the fielding department. The Marlins are 4th in the NL in runs scored per game and above average in homers and stolen bases. However, they don’t walk much and they strike out a lot. They are above average in runs allowed and ERA, and they keep the ball in the yard. But while they have the 4th best starters’ ERA in the NL, the bullpen ERA is 14th, and they have blown 12 saves in 30 save opportunities. They are the 2nd worst fielding team in the National League.

Friday

Josh Johnson vs. Kris Medlen

The first thing you do when you see that the Marlins are coming up on the schedule is check to see if you’re gonna have to face Johnson. If you are going to have to face Johnson in a 3-game series, you know that you’ll probably have to win the other 2 games in order to win the series. It was obvious during Johnson’s superb rookie year of 2006 that the guy was going to be great, but injuries stunned his growth for a while. Now that he’s come all the way back from those arm troubles, Johnson has developed into the pitcher we all feared he would be. The guy is 30-9 since the start of the 2008 season.

This year Johnson has been dominant. He may end up winning the Cy Young Award that so many people have already given to Ubaldo Jimenez. I’m not sure how many people are aware that Johnson essentially leads the NL in both WHIP and ERA. He has by far the best WHIP in the NL, and his ERA is now just 0.001 higher than Jimenez’s. Johnson is 8-3 in 16 starts with a 1.83 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He has 1 CG and 108 K in 107 innings. Johnson has 14 Quality Starts and the Marlins are 10-6 with him on the mound.

While Jimenez has come back to Earth a bit since a historically hot start, Johnson has only gotten better as the year has gone on. He is 8-2 over his last 14 starts with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 98 innings. You know, it’s almost always a really good sign when your ERA is the same as your WHIP. That’s especially true when the number is 0.83, which is Johnson’s ERA and WHIP over 65 innings in his last 9 starts.

Josh Johnson has only made 5 starts on the road this season and the Marlins are just 2-3 in those games. He is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 31 innings away from home this year, posting QS in 4 of 5 tries. Johnson has been a Braves killer during most of his career. In 12 career appearances against Atlanta, 11 as a starter, Johnson is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 69 innings, including 1 CG. Since 2008, Johnson is 2-1 in 5 starts against the Braves, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 30 K over 32.2 innings.

To win the opener of the series, the Braves will almost certainly need a stellar performance from Kris Medlen, something in the area of 7 shutout innings. Medlen has been huge for the Braves this year. In 9 starts, Medlen is 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 55.2 innings. The Braves have won his last 6 starts.

Saturday

Anibal Sanchez vs. Tommy Hanson

The soft tossing Sanchez has been one of Florida’s better starters this year, going 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 15 starts so far. He has 10 QS, though the Marlins are just 8-7 with him on the mound. In his last 9 starts, Sanchez is 6-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 58 innings. He hasn’t been quite as tough away from home in 2010. He is 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 43 innings in 7 road starts. The Marlins are 4-3 in those games and Sanchez has 3 QS on the road.

When I looked up Josh Johnson’s career numbers against the Braves, I was surprised that they weren’t even more impressive. I had the same feeling when I looked at Sanchez’s numbers against Atlanta. I guess you tend to remember the times a pitcher shuts you down more than the times you got to him. In 10 career starts against the Braves, Sanchez is 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 56 innings. Last season the Braves had to face Sanchez 5 times. He was 2-3 against us with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 26.2 innings. Sanchez beat the Braves in Florida on May 25th of this season, allowing 5 hits and 4 walks, but giving up just 2 runs with 6 K over 6.1 innings in a 6-4 Marlins win.

There’s no question that Tommy Hanson’s 2nd year in the Majors has been a bit of a struggle. While this hasn’t been a big surprise, as sophomore slumps are common for young starters, it has none the less been a bit unsettling. In 16 starts, Hanson is now 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Braves are 11-5 with Hanson on the mound, despite the fact that he has just 7 QS. Hanson hasn’t been great on the road or at home. In 8 starts at Turner Field this year, Hanson is just 3-3 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 44 innings. He has only 3 QS in 8 starts at home, though the Braves are 5-3 in those games.

I mentioned in earlier blogs that Hanson’s increased pitch counts could lead to trouble ahead. While that doesn’t explain all of Tommy’s problems over the last couple of starts, I do think the workload had some effect. His last 2 outings have been disastrous. Hanson was hammered by the White Sox and then the Tigers, yielding 15 runs (14 earned) on 21 hits, 3 BB, and a HBP with just 4 K over 7.1 innings. 14 ER over 7.1 innings makes for an ERA of…well, it isn’t very good. 21 hits and 3 walks allowed over 7.1 innings makes for a WHIP that isn’t fit for printing even on this blog.

Hanson’s start against the Marlins in Florida earlier this season was fairly typical of his performance throughout this season. On May 26th, Tommy held the Marlins to just 2 runs over 6 innings to get the win in a 7-3 Braves victory, but he gave up 4 hits and a homer, walked 5 with 4 K, and also hit a batter.

Sunday

Ricky Nolasco vs. Tim Hudson

Nolasco has always been known as a very talented pitcher, but he just hasn’t been that good over the last couple of years. This year Nolasco is 7-6 with 1 CG over 16 starts, posting a 4.84 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has 9 QS and the Marlins are 8-8 with Nolasco on the mound. His biggest problem in 2010 has been the long ball, as he has allowed an NL worst 19 dingers. The Marlins are 5-3 in Nolasco’s 8 road starts, as he has thrown a CG and has 4 QS away from home this year. In those 8 starts on the road, Nolasco is 4-2 with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 50.2 innings.

Nolasco was off to a decent start to the year before hitting a particularly rough patch a month or so back. In his last 8 appearances, Nolasco is 3-4 with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 44 innings. However, Nolasco has shown signs of coming out of the funk lately. In his last 3 starts, Nolasco is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, fanning 21 over 20 innings. The Braves handled Nolasco back on May 27th in Florida. Nolasco allowed 3 runs on 8 hits in just 4 innings to take the loss in that game, with the Braves winning 8-3.

One of the strange things about baseball is the way that a pitcher’s performance doesn’t always seem to jive with the won-loss record. Obviously that’s the case concerning a pitcher’s won-loss record, but it can also be true in terms of a team’s won-loss record. Tim Hudson has thrown a QS in 13 of 16 games this year, posting a 2.37 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, with 1 CG. Huddy is 8-3, but the Braves are just 9-7 in his 16 appearances.

Huddy has been excellent in 6 starts at the Ted this season, and the Braves have been successful in those games as well. Hudson is 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 40.2 innings at home this season, posting a QS in all 6 home starts. Hudson has also dominated the Fish during his career. In 16 starts against the Marlins Hudson is 8-2 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

As a side note, Huddy has become one of my favorite Braves, particularly of the last decade. In my opinion, if Hudson continues to pitch at this level throughout the remainder of 2010, and the Braves end up getting back to the postseason, Hudson would have to be mentioned among the great Braves players of the Bobby Cox/John Schuerholz era. His overall numbers might not be up there with some other Braves players of the era, and if the Braves make the playoffs this year it will be only their 2nd appearance in Huddy’s 6 seasons with the team. But I have come to have a great appreciation for Hudson’s work ethic, professionalism, and leadership. It hasn’t always been a joy to be a Braves fan during Hudson’s time with the team, and he hasn’t always been great on the mound, but he’s always been a great member of the clubhouse, and it’s always been a joy to have him on the team.

Now, if Hudson is able to complete a truly excellent individual season, and lead the team back to the postseason in Cox’s final year, Huddy’s legacy with the Braves would be elevated to great heights. If those things do play out, I think I would have to say that Hudson would be at the top of the list of the greatest Braves players who were not a part of the 1991-1996 portion of the BC/JS era. If you think about it, Hudson and McCann are really the only 2 that you could consider for that honor.

Outlook

Because the Braves have to face Johnson in the opener, I think winning 2 of 3 in this series would be very good. At least the Braves won’t have to face any lefty starters in this series. And unlike the last few series, the Braves won’t be going up against one of the better bullpens late in the game. Hanson’s performance could make or break this series for Atlanta. Of course you really never know how things will go against Sanchez, as the Braves have pounded him at times, and at other times have been completely befuddled by his off-speed junk. It won’t be easy, but the Braves really do need to win this series, as they will have road series against the Phils and Mets coming up next week before the All-Star break.