The Braves Blog: Detroit Series Preview

If you read my last blog, you know that I was concerned about the series in Chicago. However, I have to admit that I didn’t expect the Braves to have that tough of time. I would have been content with winning 1 of 3, but to get swept, particularly in the fashion that it happened, was hard to take. The Braves are still 42-31, but their hold on 1st place in the East is in jeopardy. The Mets are just a half game back, and the Phillies are now within 2.5. While the competition isn’t getting any easier, at least we are back home. It’s a good thing, because the Braves really need to win this series. You don’t want the slide to extend much farther.

Detroit Series Preview

The Braves face another tough test this weekend, as the Tigers come to Atlanta for a 3 game series. Detroit comes in 39-32 (.549), in 2nd place in the AL Central, just a half game back of the 1st place Twins. Working in the Braves’ favor, the Tigers are just 14-21 (.400) on the road, and unlike the White Sox, Detroit isn’t red hot. They are just 2-3 in their last 5, although they are 10-5 in interleague play.

It’s no surprise to see the Tigers near the top of the standings, as they were in the World Series just a few years ago, and they have become one of the big spenders in the MLB. However, when you look at this year’s club, their record is perhaps a little better than it should be. To begin with, they’ve only scored 2 more runs than they’ve allowed (321-319). In addition, they are below average in a number of key categories. The Tigers haven’t excelled in many areas so far in 2010. They are 8th in the AL in runs scored and 9th in runs allowed. Detroit’s defense has also been lacking this year,


This Detroit team is not the long ball threat that they have been in the recent past. They are just 8th in the AL in homers. They aren’t a big base stealing team (currently 12th in the AL in steals) either. However, Detroit is 5th in the AL in OBP and 4th in OPS, so they are a capable offensive club.

The Tigers haven’t been a great pitching team this season. They are 8th in the AL in ERA and 9th in WHIP. Mostly, it’s been the starting pitching that has disappointed. Their starting pitching ERA is 12th in the AL. On the other hand, the bullpen has been very good. Detroit is 3rd in the AL in bullpen ERA and tied for 1st in Save%.

Friday

Andrew Oliver vs. Kris Medlen

The opener of the series is an intriguing game, primarily because the Tigers’ starter is a bit of a mystery (at least to me). Oliver will be making his first appearance in the big leagues after only a few months in the minors. He was a 2nd round pick for the Tigers in 2009 and has never pitched above AA. All of his experience in pro ball so far has come this year. He was 6-4 in 14 starts at AA, posting a 3.61 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 77.1 innings. The one thing to worry about for Braves fans? He’s a lefty.

Can’t say a lot of negative things about Kris Medlen at this point. The kid has a 3.67 ERA in 8 starts, and the Braves are 7-1 in those games.

Saturday

Max Scherzer vs. Kenshin Kawakami

The Braves will face another young pitcher in the 2nd game of the series, but they are a bit more familiar with Max Scherzer. Scherzer is clearly a talented right hander, but so far he hasn’t quite been able to put it together enough to have consistent success at the Major League level. In 13 starts with the Tigers this season Scherzer is 4-6 with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has 6 quality starts, but the Tigers are just 5-8 with him on the mound, and opponents have an .844 OPS off of him. On the road, Scherzer has been crushed. The Tigers are 1-6 in his 7 starts away from home, and Scherzer has a 6.20 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in those games.

While those numbers are hideous, it must be noted that much of the damage off of Scherzer came earlier in the season, before he was sent back down to the minors in the middle of May. After dominating in 2 starts, Scherzer was brought back to the big club and he has pitched much better since. In 5 starts since being recalled, Scherzer is 3-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He has struck out 41 in just 31 innings over that span. The righty has thrown 3 straight quality starts, and has just a 3.10 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 20.1 innings in those 3 games.

I don’t want to spend too much time on Kenshin Kawakami. He’s been an abject disaster; simple as that. In 14 starts so far in 2010, KK is 0-9 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Sunday

Justin Verlander vs. Tommy Hanson

The Braves will face Detroit’s ace in the series finale. Justin Verlander didn’t get off to a great start this year, but he is now 8-5 in 15 starts with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has 9 quality starts and the Tigers are 10-5 with him on the mound. Fortunately for the Braves, Verlander hasn’t been as tough on the road this season. He is just 4-3 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 8 starts away from Detroit. Also, Verlander was roughed up in his last start, allowing 5 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 2 innings of work against the Mets in New York.

The Braves will be going with Tommy Hanson on Sunday, and will be interesting to see how he comes back from what was one of the worst starts in his short career on Tuesday. The Braves have still won 11 of Hanson’s 15 starts, but his inability to go deep into games is becoming a bit of a concern. He has lasted less than 6 innings in 6 starts this season, and that obviously takes away from his value.

Outlook

I described the previous series as “tricky” and you could say the same about the series this weekend. The difference is that the Braves had some margin for error in Chicago. Now that they’ve been swept by the White Sox, the margin for error is much slimmer. In fact, the opener on Friday night could end up being a fairly significant game. If you look at the pitching matchups in this series, it’s obvious that the Braves don’t want to be going into Saturday’s game with a 4 game losing skid. Let’s face it: the Braves probably aren’t going to win the 2nd game of the series, as Kawakami is on the mound for Atlanta. And you certainly can’t call the Braves favorites to win the finale, as Verlander has shut the Braves down in the past. On Monday, the Braves will be going against that rookie for the Nationals who is supposed to be pretty good. So, yeah, Friday is pretty big. I’m a little bit scared at this point. While it will be tough, I think we really need to win this series.