The Braves Blog: Kansas City Series Preview

Another test, another satisfactory performance. The Braves are now a season high 11 games over .500 at 39-28. Last weekend they won 2 of 3 against the AL Central leading Twins on the road. The AL East leading Rays came to town this week and the Braves took 2 of 3 from them as well. In each series, the Braves lost the opener (both times against lefty aces), only to come back and take the final 2 games to take the series. The Braves are now 21-7 at home, but they must continue to play good baseball, as the Mets are breathing down their necks, just a half game out and red hot. With the Royals coming to town next, there’s no room for a letdown.

Kansas City Series Preview

This should be one of the least challenging series the Braves have encountered in quite a while. The Royals are as bad as usual this season. KC won on Wednesday to bring their record to 29-38. They are 4th in the AL Central, 9.5 games out of 1st. The Royals come to town with a 15-19 road record. They have a -33 run differential; 11th out of 14 in the AL.

One interesting thing about this year’s KC team is that they are really not that bad offensively. They are in the middle of the pack in the AL in runs scored and towards the bottom in homers, but the Royals have the 2nd fewest strikeouts and the highest team batting average in the league. Despite leading the AL in hitting, the Royals are just 7th in OBP, due to the fact that they are 13th out of 14 in walks. You’d expect a team full of contact hitters to use the stolen base as a weapon but Kansas City has stolen just 43 bases in 65 tries (66.2%, 12th in the AL).

The Royals may be improved offensively, but they have taken a step back in the pitching department this season. They are 13th in the AL in runs allowed and ERA, and last in batting average against. They’ve allowed the 2nd most homers in the league. The starting rotation has been a disaster; the worst in the AL. Their relievers have been better but they’ve still blown 11 saves. The fact that the Royals are a poor defensive team has not helped matters.

The Braves will see the Royals’ best pitcher in this series, but they’ll face a righty starter in every game. Considering the pitching the Braves have seen recently, nobody they’ll face in this series should scare them. The Braves won’t have either of their top 2 starters pitching in this series, so the hitters need to do what they should do against below average pitching.

Friday

Brian Bannister vs. Derek Lowe

Bannister is 6-4 in 13 starts this year, but he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 75 innings. KC is 7-6 in his starts. Bannister has given up 14 dingers in his 13 starts. He’s 1-3 in 6 starts on the road, with the Royals going 2-4 in those games. He has been far worse on the road than at home, boasting an 8.22 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in 30.2 innings during his 6 road games.

Despite these hideous numbers, the young right hander had been on a major role prior to his last start, having won 5 in a row with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over that stretch. However, the Reds pummeled him in Cincinnati in his last appearance, as Bannister allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 10 hits, giving up 3 homers.

Derek Lowe is still far from a sure thing each time he takes the mound these days. You never know when he’ll go out there and just have to scratch and claw to get through 5 innings without the game getting out of hand. Still, over his last 7 starts Lowe is 5-2 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 43.1 innings. While his overall numbers are poor, Lowe has been much, much better pitching at Turner Field. He’s 4-2 in 7 games at home with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 44.1 innings. The Braves have won 5 of his 7 home starts.

Saturday

Zach Greinke vs. Kris Medlen

By far the toughest pitcher the Braves will face in this series will be Greinke. The young righty blossomed last year on the way to winning the Cy Young Award, but 2010 has been a struggle. Greinke is just 2-8 in his 14 starts with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. While clearly his W-L record does not compute with those other stats, Greinke has been nowhere near the pitcher he was in ’09. After allowing 11 homers all of last season, Greinke has given up 12 homers already this season. Even more concerning for KC fans, Greinke’s K/9 average has dropped from 9.5 last year to 7.9 so far this season. Kansas City has gone just 3-11 in his 14 starts.

Despite a 1-5 record in 8 road starts, Greinke has done some of his best work away from home, including a pair of complete games. He has a 3.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP on the road, yet the Royals are just 2-6 in his 8 road starts. The bad news for the Braves is that Greinke is coming off one of his best outings of the season, a complete game performance at Cincinnati, during which he held the Reds to just 3 runs on 5 hits, striking out 12 without a walk (though he did allow 2 more homers).

Kris Medlen doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he’s starting to become a trusted member of the pitching staff. He was excellent in relief early on in the year and he has been more than adequate in 7 starts since filling Jair Jurrjens spot in the rotation. Medlen is 3-0 in 7 starts and the Braves are 6-1 in those games. Despite giving up 7 homers, Medlen has posted a 3.59 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 42.2 innings as a starter.

Sunday

Kyle Davies vs. Kenshin Kawakami

The Braves will face a former teammate in the finale of this series. KD has been he’s usual self for the Royals this year, occasionally looking good, but pretty much sucking more often than not. He has a 4-5 record in 13 starts with a hideous 6.01 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In spite of those poor numbers, the Royals are actually 7-6 with Davies on the mound. He’s been at his worst on the road, posting a 6.47 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP over 40.1 innings in 7 starts. Again, despite those terrible numbers, the end result hasn’t been that bad, as KD is 3-2 in 7 road starts and the Royals are 4-3 in those games.

However, Davies has been absolutely brutal over the last 6 weeks or so. Most of his decent appearances came early on, as he is just 2-4 over his last 8 starts, and the Royals are just 3-5 in those games. But that record doesn’t accurately reflect how awful Davies has been. During those last 8 starts, opposing batters have hit .329/.385/.476/.861 off KD, and he has a 7.94 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP over just 39.2 innings during that stretch.

There’s really no point in spending time on Kawakami. We’re familiar enough with him at this point. We know that he’s very unlikely to have a great performance. There’s a chance that you’ll get a decent game from him, but it’s probably more likely that he’ll suck, and have to work really hard to keep the other team from scoring 10 runs over the first 4 innings. KK is now 0-9 in his 13 starts.

Outlook

We really should sweep this series. It’s not that the Royals are the worst team ever or that the pitching matchups are just so overwhelmingly in our favor. But if the Braves are going to win the East and get back to the postseason, they really need to go out and get it done against weaklings like the Royals, especially at home. KC has actually been decent lately. They are 18-15 over their last 33 games, and they’ve won 5 of 7 coming into the series. The Braves have won 5 of 7 as well, but they haven’t won 3 in a row since their 9 game win streak came to an end 2 weeks ago. I think it’s fair to expect a 3 game sweep here. At the very least, the Braves cannot afford to do any worse than 2 out of 3, as they try to hold on to their slim lead atop the division.