The Braves Blog: Minnesota Series Preview

Minnesota Series Preview

The Braves are 8 games into their longest road trip of the season and so far the road has been tough. They’ve lost their setup man to injury, nearly lost a starting pitcher to an injury on the base paths, and had two outfielders run into each other (nearly resulting in the death of the smaller of the two). They’ve been unlucky, losing 3 games by 1-run. And yet, things could have gone (much) worse. The Braves managed to split both of their 4-game series on this trip. While you’d like to win every series, I thought that splitting both series was a realistic goal going into this tough stretch of games. Yesterday was a huge game, as the Braves had a clear pitching advantage, and the victory allowed them to get through the first two stops of this 3-city road trip with a 4-4 record. If they had lost, 3-5 would have been a big disappointment heading into a tough 3 game series with the Twins in Minnesota this weekend. There would have been pressure to win at least 2 of 3 over the Twins. Splitting the first two series on this trip is all the Braves needed to do. Now they really only need to win one in Minnesota in order to come home with a satisfactory (in my opinion) 5-6 record on this trip.

Minnesota Series Preview

The series with the Twins this weekend will be a tough one. Minnesota is currently 35-25 and they are 20-10 at home. They are a well balanced team, with good pitching, a strong lineup, and a very tough bullpen. Looking at the bright side of things, at least this series will not be played at the Metrodome. The pitching matchups for this weekend are actually not as daunting as they have been for much of this road trip.

Friday

Tim Hudson vs. Francisco Liriano

Liriano is the toughest pitcher the Braves will face in the series and the only lefty. Liriano is not quite back to the dominance he displayed before arm injuries a few years back, but he has had a good year so far. He is 5-3 in 11 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP, having struck out 76 over 72.2 innings. Liriano is especially tough on lefties which is bad for the Braves who are a much weaker offensive team against southpaws. Another bit of bad news is that like all 3 of the pitchers the Braves will face in the series, Liriano is a better pitcher at home. He’s 2-1 in 4 home starts with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 28 innings. Liriano hasn’t been quite as sharp lately. In his last 6 starts, the lefty is just 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Liriano will be a challenge. Fortunately, the Braves will have their best pitcher on the mound as well, and Huddy won’t have to deal with the ridiculous surface of the Metrodome.

Saturday

Derek Lowe vs. Nick Blackburn

Prior to his last start, Lowe had made 3 consecutive solid starts, giving us some hope that he had figured things out. That was before he got beat up by the D-Backs in his last outing on Monday night. Who knows what to expect now. Fortunately, Nick Blackburn is Minnesota’s most average pitcher. A soft tossing right hander, Blackburn is 6-3 in 11 starts on the year, but he has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP, having yielded 93 hits with just 17 K over 67.1 innings. Blackburn was actually pretty good in May, but in his last 2 starts he has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits and a walk without striking anyone out over 6.1 innings. However, Blackburn has been significantly better at Target Field this season, going 4-0 in 5 starts there so far, with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 35.1 innings.

Sunday

Kris Medlin vs. Kevin Slowey

The Braves got a major scare on Tuesday night when Medlin injured himself sliding into home plate. For now it appears to be just a scare, as Medlin is expected to make his start on Sunday. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if the injury to his non-pitching shoulder has any affect on his performance. Like Blackburn, Slowey is a right handed control pitcher, but he’s much more capable than Blackburn. Slowey is 7-3 in 12 starts this year, posting a 3.45 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Slowey is the Twins hottest pitcher at the moment. In his last 3 starts he has allowed just 2 runs on 14 hits and 2 walks over 20.2 innings with 11 strikeouts. And Slowey is also a better pitcher at Target Field, having gone 4-2 in 7 starts there this season, with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 42.2 innings.

Outlook

The Braves have a decent chance of taking 2 of 3 in this series. All things considered, however, a realistic goal is to get out of town with at least 1 win. That may sound like too modest a goal, but this road trip was about treading water, not making hay.