The Baseball Blog: The Middling Middle

The Central Getting Squeezed by the Coasts

There are currently 8 AL teams over .500: 4 from the East; 2 from the Central; and 2 from the West. There are 9 teams currently over .500 in the NL: 3 from the East; 2 from the Central; and 4 from the West. That’s a combined 7 teams from the East divisions and 6 teams from the West divisions, against a total of 4 teams from the Central divisions. Last season, 3 teams finished over .500 in both of the East divisions and both of the West divisions, while only 2 teams finished over .500 in each of the Central divisions. This is not just a recent trend.

In the 12 seasons prior to this one, dating back to the last change in alignment, 33 teams have finished the year over .500 in each of the East divisions; 27 teams have finished over .500 in the AL West; and 33 teams have finished over .500 in the NL West. Only 25 teams have finished over .500 in the AL Central and 30 NL Central teams have finished over .500. Combining the divisions, that’s 66 teams over .500 for the East divisions; 60 teams over .500 for the West divisions; and only 55 teams over .500 for the Central divisions.

The differences are even clearer when you bring percentages into play. Recall that there are 6 teams in the NL Central and only 4 teams in the AL West. Thus, over the 12 year period, 72 AL Central teams had a chance to finish over .500, while only 48 NL West teams could finish over .500. With that in mind, check out these numbers.

Percentage of teams finishing the year over .500 from 1998-2009 from highest to lowest:

AL West: 27 of 48 (56.3%)
AL East: 33 of 60 (55.0%)
NL East: 33 of 60 (55.0%)
NL West: 33 of 60 (55.0%)
AL Central: 25 of 60 (41.7%)
NL Central: 30 of 72 (41.7%)

West Division Teams: 60 of 108 (55.6%)
East Division Teams: 66 of 120 (55.0%)
Central Division Teams: 55 of 132 (41.7%)

Clearly, something is going on here. And perhaps it’s just a matter of the number of “small market” teams that there are in the Central divisions, as opposed to all of the big spending teams in the East and West divisions. The West divisions have the LA teams and San Fran, while the East divisions have the New York teams and the clubs from other east coast cities where baseball is huge. This is a part of it, but it doesn’t come close to explaining everything. For one, there are several “big market” or big spending franchises in the Central divisions: both Chicago teams, Detroit, Houston, and St. Louis. Also, there are plenty of “small market” teams in the other divisions: Tampa, Oakland, San Diego, Florida, Washington, etc. Plenty of teams have had consistent success despite a small payroll, including the Twins, from the AL Central. And while not everyone is going to be able to consistently win 90 games the way the Twins do, it doesn’t take a big budget to win 82 games every once in a while.

The biggest problem, in my opinion, is that the 2 worst franchises in baseball reside in the Central divisions, along with another club that ranks in the bottom 10 franchises or so. In addition, several of the teams in the Central divisions have had extended periods of failure. Kansas City and Pittsburgh are easily the two worst franchises in the game. The Royals have had just 1 winning season over the previous 12, while the Pirates haven’t had a single one. The Reds’ futility is a bit underrated because the Pirates are so bad, but Cincinnati has had only 2 years above .500 over the last 12 years. The Tigers are having success now and they are spending like a big market club, but it’s easy to forget how bad they were before their surprising run to the World Series in 2006. Detroit still has had only 3 winning seasons since 1998. Then there are the Brewers, who are just coming out of a long stretch of futility, and to date, Milwaukee still has had only 2 seasons over .500 since 1998.

It seems like the Brewers have had more success than they really have because of the group of young players that they have developed and who all got to the Majors around the same time. But the Brewers seemed to miss their window of opportunity, just as the Indians have done. And this is really where the small market thing comes into play. When one group of players from a Cleveland or a Milwaukee team doesn’t reach its potential, they simply have to rebuild again, and those cycles can last a long time.

There have been some radical ideas thrown about concerning possible realignments based on things other than geography. Not one of these plans is worth considering. The teams in the Central divisions can win. The problem is that some of those teams either aren’t trying, have been poorly run, or both.

The situation may not change anytime soon. The Reds are having a surprisingly good year so far, but the White Sox have again disappointed. Detroit has emerged as a consistent contender, but it’s looking more and more likely that the Brewers will have to trade away some of their key parts and start over. The Cubs are having a rough year but they have certainly tried to get things right. The Astros, on the other hand, appear to be transitioning back into a “small market” team, and their minor league system is a long way from offering any help. The Central could be the weak spot in the MLB for many more years to come.