Series Preview
The Braves’ long road trip continues this week with a 4-game series in Arizona and a 3-game set at Minnesota. While last weekend’s series in LA could have gone better, the Braves did what they needed to do, and that was get a split. Considering the pitching matchups, how hot LA had been, and the bad luck the Braves encountered, we should probably feel good about getting out of there with 2 wins in 4 games.
The Braves are now 33-24 and 2 games up on the Phillies at the start of play tonight. They have a 14-18 road record. The most challenging part of this week for the Braves will be working around all of the injury issues that they are dealing with right now. They have faced a number of tough pitchers already on this road trip and that will continue throughout the week.
Arizona Series Preview/Pitching Matchups
The Diamond Backs are currently 22-35, having been outscored 335-270, and they are in last in the NL West, 11.5 out of 1st. They are tied with Houston for the worst record in the NL, but they are a .500 team at home. The D-Backs are starting to come out of a hideous stretch of play that saw them lose 10 in a row. They took 2 of 3 from the Rockies this last weekend to snap that skid. And in their last 7 games, they are 2-5, with all 5 losses coming by 1 run. So they aren’t playing terrible baseball.
Offensively, Arizona’s strength is the long ball. They are 3rd in the NL in homers; 4th in BB; and 4th in runs per game. But Zona’s weakness at the plate is related to that free swinging strength, as they lead the league by a wide margin in strikeouts. On the other side, Arizona is a solid defensive team, but they are worst in the NL in runs allowed per game and ERA. And as big of a strength as the home run is for the Snakes offensively, it’s an even bigger weakness as a pitching staff. Arizona has allowed far and away the most home runs in the NL this season.
Strangely, Arizona has some decent pitchers. In fact, the pitching matchups in this series are not that advantageous for Atlanta. I would actually have to say that Arizona has the advantage in the pitching matchup in the first 3 games of the series (Derek Lowe vs. Dan Haren; Kris Medlen vs. Edwin Jackson; Kenshin Kawakami vs. Ian Kennedy), with the Braves having a clear advantage in the finale (Tommy Hanson vs. Dontrelle Willis). The good news is that only Willis is a lefthander.
Haren has not had a good year so far, though it’s difficult to see why. He is 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.317 WHIP, despite having struck out 83 while walking only 15 over 82 innings. However, Haren has allowed 93 hits and 16 homers. Haren is coming off of one of his best starts of the year, going 8 shutout innings against the Dodgers his last time out. He did throw a season high 126 pitches in that outing. Jackson is just 3-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP, but he too is coming off of his best start of the year, going 9 shutout innings against the Dodgers, allowing just 3 hits in that game. But like Haren, Jackson threw a season high 123 pitches in that last start. Kennedy has been Arizona’s best starter so far, going 3-3 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.168 WHIP, though he has allowed 14 bombs. Willis was recently picked up by Arizona after the Tigers gave up on the left hander. In his first start he got the win against Colorado, throwing 6 shutout innings. While Willis may pitch better back in the NL, he wasn’t much better against the Rockies, giving up 5 hits, walking 4, and hitting a batter. That won’t normally equate to a scoreless night.
Outlook: At first glance, I’d like to say that the Braves should come in with the goal of winning at least 3 of 4, and go no worse than 2-2. However, because of the pitching matchups, and the fact that the Braves are nowhere near 100% physically, it might be more realistic to shoot for a split, and hope for better.
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