The Braves Blog: Tampa Bay Series Preview

The Braves are finally through the longest road trip of the season, and they came out of it with a 6-5 record. They have now played on 20 consecutive days. There’s barley any rest for the weary, as the Braves will get just one day of rest before facing the Rays in a 3-game set at Turner Field.

Tampa Bay Series Preview

It will be another tough series for the Braves. The good news is that the Braves will be at home, where they have the best record in baseball at 19-6. The bad news is that the Rays have the best road record in baseball at 22-8. Tampa is now 40-23, tied with the Yankees for the best record in the Majors. They also have the 2nd best run differential in the ML (+97), behind only the Yanks. The Rays are 3-3 so far in interleague play.

Like the Twins, the Rays are a very balanced team. They are an excellent offensive team and they have perhaps the best pitching in the American League. They have a super starting rotation and a very good bullpen. They are a below average defensive team, which is their only weakness. Fortunately for the Braves, Tampa has only 1 left handed starter and 1 lefty reliever. The pitching matchups actually look pretty favorable for the Braves.

Tuesday

David Price vs. Kenshin Kawakami

Just like in the series against the Twins, the Braves will face the toughest starting pitcher and the only left hander in the opening game of the series with Tampa. Price has been one of the best starters in the AL this year. The former #1 pick has gone 9-2 in 12 starts with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 80.2 innings. He leads all qualified AL pitchers in ERA and his tied for 11th in WHIP. He is tied for 1st in the AL in Quality Starts with 10 and in QS% at .830. Price has been tough at home and on the road. Away from home he is 5-1 in 6 starts with a 2.54 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 39 innings. In his last 4 starts Price is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 26 innings, posting 3 QS.

The opener looks like a serious mismatch, as the Braves will be going with their weakest starting pitcher, Kenshin Kawakami, who is now 0-8 in 12 starts. It’s certainly looks bad for the Braves on paper, and it may turn out that way on the field, but Kawakami hasn’t been nearly as bad as his record suggests. If Price has an off day, the Braves might be able to win it, as KK has been keeping the team in the game lately.

0-8 is bad any way you slice it, but KK’s 4.48 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 68.1 innings are better numbers than you would expect for a guy who is winless in 12 starts. Kawakami is 30th in both ERA and WHIP out of 48 qualified NL pitchers. The guy just behind KK in ERA is Johnny Cueto, who is 6-1 despite a 4.50 ERA. Aaron Harang’s ERA and WHIP are both far worse than KK’s (5.17 ERA and 1.45 WHIP), yet Harang is 5-5. Kawakami has thrown Quality Starts in 6 of 12 starts, but has yet to get a win, in large part due to the Braves scoring just 3.06 runs a game during his starts.

KK has been pitching better lately. In his first 7 starts, KK was 0-6 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP over 37.1 innings. It was even worse than that, as KK had allowed 3 unearned runs, making his Runs Allowed Average 6.51. He threw just 2 quality starts in those first 7 appearances and the Braves were 1-6 with him on the mound. He averaged just 5.1 innings per start, 5.54 K/9, and allowed 6 homers (1.45 per 9 innings). Batters hit .291 with a .875 OPS against KK during those first 7 starts.

In Kawakami’s last 5 starts, however, he has thrown 4 QS, posting an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.26 over 31 innings. He is 0-2 over his last 5 starts but the Braves are 2-3 in those games. KK has averaged over 6 innings per start and 6.1 K/9. He has held opponents to a .252 batting average and a .716 OPS, allowing just 2 homers (0.58 per 9 innings). KK has also been better at Turner Field this year. In 4 home starts, Kawakami is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 22 innings. He has a 6.50 K/9 in those 4 starts and has held batters to a .259 batting average and a .700 OPS, allowing just 1 homer. Most importantly, the Braves are 3-1 in KK’s 4 home starts.

Wednesday

Wade Davis vs. Tommy Hanson

The Braves should have almost as big of an edge in the pitching matchup in the second game of the series as the Rays have in the opener. I say should because Tommy Hanson hasn’t quite pitched up to his potential this year. Hanson is 6-3 in 13 starts and the Braves have gone 10-3 with Tommy on the mound. He has a 3.69 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 75.2 innings. However, Tommy has thrown just 6 QS in 13 tries for a .460 QS%. Much of Tommy’s struggles have come at home, as he is just 2-2 in 6 starts at the Ted with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 33.1 innings. The Braves are 4-2 in Hanson’s 6 home starts.

Hanson has been pitching better as of late, going 3-0 in his last 4 starts with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 24 innings. The Braves have won all 4 of those starts and Hanson has yielded just 1 homer while holding batters to a .226 batting average and a .685 OPS. There is something to worry about, however, and that is Hanson’s escalating pitch count in recent starts. Hanson has had some difficulty getting outs without expending a lot of effort. He’s been striking guys out but it has taken a number of pitches to get the job done. Some control issues have also run his pitch count up. This has resulted in an inability to pitch deep into games. Recently, however, Tommy has had to throw a lot of pitches just to get through 5 or 6 innings. In an attempt to save the bullpen, Cox has let Hanson max out on pitches in his last few starts. Over his last 3 starts, Tommy has averaged 116 pitches. While this is unlikely to result in an injury for Hanson, it may hinder his performance at some point.

In another similarity to the series against the Twins, the Braves will be facing Tampa’s weakest starter in the second game of the series. Wade Davis is a right hander who is neither a strikeout pitcher nor a control artist. Davis is 5-6 in 12 starts this season with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 66 innings. He has 5 QS in 12 tries for a .420 QS%. The Rays are 6-6 with Davis on the mound. Davis has been at his worst on the road, going 2-2 in 5 road starts with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 25 innings. Davis has really struggled in his last 7 outings, going 2-5 with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over 37 innings. He has allowed 9 homers over that stretch, and batters have hit .309 with a .898 OPS off of him.

Thursday

Shields vs. Hudson

The Braves will again have the clear starting pitching edge in the finale. Tim Hudson is the only Braves starter having a truly great season. He is 6-2 in 13 starts with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 85.1 innings. Huddy is tied for 2nd among qualified NL starters with 11 QS and a .850 QS%. Strangely, the Braves are now just 7-6 in Hudson’s 13 starts.

Hudson has been at his best at Turner Field, going 3-1 in 4 home starts with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 26.2 innings. He has allowed just 1 homer at home and has held batters to a .202 average and a .552 OPS. Huddy is 1-1 over his last 4 starts with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 25 innings. The Braves have gone 2-2 in those games, while opponents have hit .263 with a .671 OPS and 2 homers off of Hudson.

James Shields is the closest thing the Rays have to a power pitcher but he is around the plate a lot and can be hit. The righty has been decent this year but comes into this series struggling. In 13 starts, Shields is 5-5 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 85 innings. He has 9 QS (tied for 5th in the AL) and a .690 QS% (tied 10th in the AL) and the Rays are 7-6 with him on the mound. Shields has pitched better in 6 road starts, going 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 42 innings. Even in those 6 starts away from home, however, opponents have hit .299 with a .772 ERA against Shields.

Lately, Shields has gotten shelled. He has lost his last 4 starts but his last 3 starts have been truly awful. Over his last 3 outings, Shields has yielded an 11.49 ERA and a 2.23 WHIP over 15.2 innings. His total Runs Allowed Average over his last 3 starts is 13.21. He has given up 4 homers and allowed batters to hit .411 with a 1.149 OPS off of him over those last 3 starts.

Outlook

I can actually say that I feel pretty good about things going into this series. This series looked daunting a couple of weeks ago, and it could prove to be a tough one, but I feel much better about the Braves chances against the Rays than I did before the road trip. 3 weeks ago the Rays looked like easily the best team in baseball. On May 23rd, the Rays had the best record in the Majors at 32-12 and they were 6 games up in baseball’s toughest division. Since then, however, Tampa has gone just 11-18 (3-3 on the road). They have lost 3 of their last 4 and they are coming off of losing 2 of 3 at home to the Marlins, a series in which they were outscored 25-16. Their 6 game lead in the East is gone. I like the way the pitching matchups set up for the Braves in this series. The Braves will be back home where they have been tough to beat this season and the Rays will be without a DH. The Braves should win this series.