Still Standing Tall
The Braves ended their longest road trip of the season in fine fashion, winning the last two games to take the series in Minnesota. Going into the 11-game road trip, I had said that going 5-6 would be adequate. The Braves did 1 better, going 6-5. To get through this trip 1-0-2 in 3 series is pretty big. While going only 1 game over .500 during and 11 game stretch doesn’t really sound like a team that is red hot, the Braves have continued the good baseball that they played during June. Of the 5 losses the Braves suffered during the 11-game road trip, 4 were by 1 run.
Status after 64 Games
The Braves are now 10 games over .500 at 37-27 (.578). They have the 4th best record in the Majors, just 3.5 games behind the Yankees and Rays. They have the 2nd best record in the NL, a half game behind San Diego. And most importantly, they are in 1st place in the East, 1.5 games ahead of the Mets, and 3 games in front of the Phillies. The Braves are still just 18-21 on the road (.462, 11th best in the MLB), but they return home now where they have the best record in the Majors at 19-6 (.760).
The Braves also have the 3rd best run differential in baseball at +61. They haven’t had the best luck, going 11-11 in 1-run games and 2-3 in extra inning games. In fact, the Braves run differential suggests that their record should be more like 39-25. Lately, even when the Braves have lost they have still played well. Since May 16th, the Braves are 20-8, having outscored opponents 156-85 (+71) over that time. They are just 6-6 in 1-run games and 0-2 in extra innings during that stretch. Of their 8 losses since May 16th, 6 have been by 1 run, and the other 2 losses were by 2 runs and by 3 runs. During their first 36 games, the Braves lost 7 games by at least 4 runs. In their last 28 games, the Braves have not lost a single game by more than 3 runs.
The Best Braves Team Since the Baby Braves?
While it’s still pretty early (there are still 98 games remaining), there is reason to be positive about the Braves chances of making it back to the postseason this year. At the very least, there’s reason to think that this Braves team might be a true contender down to the final days of the season. The Braves have their best record after 64 since 2003, and that was also the last year that the Braves have been in 1st place at this point in the season. During the previous 4 years, the Braves never spent even a day in 1st place after May 15th. In addition, the Braves never had a lead of more than 2 games at any point over the last 4 years, while they have already led by 3 games at one point this year. The Braves spent 31 days in 1st place in 2007 but all of that came before May 16th. In 2006, 2008, and 2009, the Braves were in 1st place for a combined 9 days, and never after April 13th. The Braves have already been in 1st place in the East for 20 days this season. The Braves are on pace to win about 94 games, which would be their most since 2004. Since June 27th of last season, the Braves are 89-63, the best record in the NL over that time, just ahead of the Phillies (87-64, -1.5 games).
What’s Ahead
The Braves have played every day for the last 20 days and will finally have a day off on Monday. Their tough stretch isn’t quite over, as they have series against the Rays and Tigers coming up over the next couple of weeks. At least they are back home, however, and won’t be playing so many consecutive days without a break over the next few weeks. The Braves play 15 of their next 18 games at home and (including Monday) they will have 3 off days during that time. All of that comes before a tough week that will take us back on the road and into the All-Star Break.
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