The Braves Blog: Chicago White Sox Series Preview

The Braves finally got a bit of a break from a brutal stretch of the schedule last weekend, drawing the Kansas City Royals in a 3 game set at home. But in a way, the Braves 3 game sweep of the hapless Royals was almost as impressive as the series wins over the Rays and Twins that preceded it. How many times over the last few years have the Braves gone up against an overmatched opponent and done exactly what they were supposed to do? It hasn’t happened all that often to my knowledge. The Braves were supposed to win all 3 games last weekend and they went out and got it done. That’s what a great team does. An extended home stand is in the near future, but first the Braves have to go out on the road again for a 3 game set on the South Side.

Chicago White Sox Series Preview

Beginning Friday, the Braves will play 9 consecutive games at home, running through July 4th. Before that, however, the Braves will have to get through a bit of a “trap series” if you will. The White Sox are just a .500 team, while the Braves have the best record in the NL, have won 5 straight, and have been playing as well as anyone over the last 6 weeks. The trouble is that the Chi Sox have been the hottest team in the game over the last two weeks.

At the end of play on June 8th, the White Sox were 24-33, and I was sizing up players that we might be able to pluck from their roster in potential deadline deals later this summer. Since then, the Sox have gone 10-1 to get back to .500 at 34-34. They are now 3rd in the Central, just 5.5 games out of 1st. Chicago has won 6 straight and they are an amazing 10-2 in interleague play. The Sox have been a bit lucky. They have been outscored 294-310 (-16) and are 14-8 in 1-run games, but that also speaks to their deep and formidable bullpen.

Offensively, this White Sox team is different from many of the Chi Sox teams during the Ozzie Guillen era. Remember how there was all that talk about playing “small ball” under Guillen in 2005? But then that ended up just being a talking point that the media seized upon and refused to let go of, as the Sox got off to such a great start that year. In reality, they actually had a lot of power to go along with speed. Over the next few years they became more and more a slow, old, long ball hitting club, finishing 1st or 2nd in homers from 2006-2008, but never finishing better than 7th in steals. This season they have an offense similar to the 2005 team, as they have power (5th in the AL in homers) and speed (2nd in the AL in SB). Still, it hasn’t really translated to a lot of scoring, as they are 10th in the AL in runs per game (by the way, they finished 9th in runs per game in 2005). The Sox make a lot of contact, but they don’t draw many walks, and they really have not been a great hitting team so far this season. If you can keep them in the yard they are limited. They are a prolific base stealing team, but that are only 11th in OBP, so you can limit their opportunities.

The Chi Sox have been a mediocre pitching team this season, despite a staff loaded with talent and recognizable names. The starting rotation has been a major disappointment. They have a very good pen and they are a solid defensive team, but they are 9th in the AL in runs allowed, as their starters’ ERA ranks 11th out of 14 in the American League. When they have delivered a lead to the relief corps, the bullpen has done a good job of nailing things down, as they are 3rd in the AL in Save%.

This could be a very tricky series. The Braves are going on the road against a hot team, right before a 9 game home stand, and they will have to face a pair of lefties during the 3 game set. The series will be played under American League rules, with the DH in play, and those are the settings under which the Sox were built to play. The Braves can put a very good lineup out there with a DH against a righty, but against left handers the Braves are limited, and at a disadvantage when the DH is in play. McCann, Heyward, and Cabrera are all lesser hitters against south paws. The platoon players—Hinske, Gregor Blanco, and Omar Infante—are also not ideal options against left handers (Infante, while right handed, is not a better hitter off lefties).

Furthermore, the Braves are going to have to be cautious with how much they use their closer, Billy Wagner, in this series, as he has been getting too much work lately. The Sox, on the other hand, have a versatile bullpen that can be used to mix and match against key Braves hitters late in the game. Plus, the depth of the pen may offset the Braves ability to wear down the starting pitchers.

I’m not wild about the pitching matchups either. In the opener, the Braves will have to face Chicago’s best starter, a lefty. They face a crafty left hander in the middle game. The White Sox will be going with their weakest starter, a righty, in the finale, but the Braves will be going with their most inconsistent starter, who has particularly struggled on the road. The Braves do have their best 2 starters (and arguably their top 3 starters at this point) going for them in this series. I just hope they aren’t cancelled out by the potentially even matchups.

Tuesday

Tommy Hanson vs. John Danks

The Braves went up against lefty aces in the openers of both the Minnesota and the Tampa Bay series, and they lost both games. The Braves will again be going up against the best starter their opponents have to offer in the opener of this series, and again it will be against a left hander. John Danks has easily been Chicago’s best starting pitcher so far this year, going 6-5 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 13 starts, including 9 quality starts. Despite these good numbers, the White Sox are just 7-6 with Danks on the mound. Another thing that can give Braves fans confidence, is the fact that Danks does not lock down left handed batters the way that many south paws do.

Unfortunately, Danks has been excellent at home this year, posting a 2.20 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 49 innings in 7 starts at new Comiskey (original name). He has 6 quality starts among those 7 home starts, though his record in those games is just 3-3, and the Sox are actually 3-4 in those 7 games. Danks is not easy to run on. In fact, he’s allowed only 1 SB in 7 attempts this season, and 4 of those 6 caught base stealers were picked off. Just about every White Sox pitcher has been pitching well over the last 2 weeks. Danks is 2-0 in his last 2 outings, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits and 7 walks with 10 K over 15 innings.

Trying to match Danks in the opener for Atlanta will be Tommy Hanson, who appears to have found his good stuff again following a bit of a speed bump earlier in the year. Hanson is now 7-3 in 14 starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In contrast to the hard luck Danks, Hanson has been a good luck charm for the Braves this year, as they are 11-3 in his 14 starts, only half of which have registered as quality starts.

Hanson does not seem to have a problem pitching on the road, as some youngsters do. He is 4-1 in 7 road starts with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 42.1 innings. He has thrown 4 quality stars on the road and the Braves are 6-1 in road games with him on the mound. Since getting pummeled by the Reds on May 20th, Hanson has gotten into a groove, going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over his last 5 starts, fanning 28 in 31 innings. He has recorded a quality start in 4 of his last 5 outings, and the Braves are 5-0 in those games.

Wednesday

Tim Hudson vs. Mark Buehrle

Buehrle has struggled mightily this season and he appears to be on the downside of his career, but he’s kind of scary for Braves fans because we don’t always excel against crafty lefties. Buehrle is 5-6 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 14 starts so far this year. He has thrown only 6 quality starts and the Sox are 7-7 with him on the mound. He is 3-2 in 7 home starts, and the Sox are 4-3 in those games, but Buehrle has not really pitched any better at “The Cell”, posting a 5.11 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 44 innings. Only 3 of his 7 starts at home have been quality starts.

Unfortunately, the Braves are catching Buehrle (like all of the Chicago pitchers) at a bad time. Buehrle has won both of his last 2 starts, allowing just 2 runs on 14 hits and a walk with 13 K over 14 innings. On the positive side for Braves fans, left handed hitters have held their own against Buehrle this year. As with Danks, one thing to be aware of against Buehrle is his pickoff move, which is nifty except when it’s being erroneously called a balk. Base stealers are 2 for 5 this year against Buehrle, but those numbers are deceiving. He has picked off 5 runners this season, but 2 were credited with an SB when they reached 2nd safely due to an error. So basically, it’s very, very difficult to run on Buehrle and Danks.

The Braves will have their best starter going up against Buehrle in this one. Tim Hudson is now 7-2 in 14 starts with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has thrown a quality start in 12 of 14 tries, yet the Braves are just 8-6 with Huddy on the mound. He has been more than a little unlucky this year. Huddy is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 58.2 innings in 9 road starts this season. Strangely, while Hudson has posted a quality start in 7 of his 9 road games in 2010, the Braves are just 4-5 in those games. Hudson has been consistently great all season. He has yet to pitch a bad game.

Thursday

Derek Lowe vs. Gavin Floyd

The Braves will finally face a right hander in the finale of this series. Gavin Floyd has also been the Sox’s worst starter in 2010. He has a 5.20 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 14 starts, going 2-7 so far. He has 7 quality starts but the Sox are just 4-10 in his 14 appearances. Floyd hasn’t been any better at home than on the road this year. In 7 starts at the new Comiskey Park, Floyd is 1-2 with a 5.86 ERA and a hideous 1.68 WHIP over 40 innings. He has thrown 3 quality starts out of 7 tries at home and the Sox are 2-5 in those games.

Unfortunately, while Floyd has been the White Sox’ weakest starter this year, he is also their hottest starting pitcher. The Sox are 1-2 in Floyd’s last 3 starts, though he has posted a quality start in each of his last 3 outings. During his last 3 starts, Floyd has yielded just 3 runs on 13 hits and 6 BB with 22 K over 22 innings. Despite posting a 1.23 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP, Floyd has just an 0-1 record over his last 3 games. Floyd has actually been pretty solid for the last month. He has notched a quality start in 5 of his last 6 appearances, posting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 35 K over 38 innings during those 6 games.

While Derek Lowe has not been the Braves worst starting pitcher in 2010, he will be the weakest that the Sox will face in this series. Lowe is 9-5 but has only managed 7 quality starts in 15 tries this season. Despite Lowe’s 4.77 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, the Braves have won 10 of his 15 starts. However, Lowe has clearly been a worse pitcher on the road than at home this year. He is 3-3 in 7 starts away from home, and the Braves are 4-3 in those games, but he has posted a 6.00 ERA and an unimaginably bad 1.72 WHIP over 39 IP. He has thrown a quality start in 3 of his 7 road games.

Like Floyd, Lowe has really been pitching better over the last month or so. In fact, Lowe has thrown a quality start in 6 of his last 8 games, going 5-2 over that stretch. The Braves are 6-2 in his last 8 starts, and Lowe has posted a 3.73 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 50.2 innings during that time.

Outlook

I don’t know why but I’m worried about this series. I still think it might be a trap. The Braves have the best home record in baseball but they are just 18-21 away from Turner Field. Looking at the bright side of things, they were able to take 2 of 3 from the Twins in Minnesota, where only one other team had won a series all season, and the Sox are just 15-18 at home. I think it’s realistic to hope that the Braves will take 2 of 3 in this series. But all things considered, as long as they pull out 1 of the 3, I won’t be that discouraged.