A Splendid Turn of Events
Things are going well. I have to admit that things are probably going a little bit better than I ever expected. I hoped things would go well, but I was worried (and that was before the start of the season and the 9 game losing skid). I picked the Braves to win 89 games (and there’s always a little bit of hope and heart in my predicted win total for the Braves). They have a chance to do a lot better than that. They’ve been playing great baseball for 6 weeks now. Let’s enjoy it! Nothing more needs to be said about that.
Status after 70 Games
The Braves are now a season best 14 games over .500 at 42-28 (.600) and on pace for around 97 wins. They are in 1st place in the NL East, 2.5 games up on the hated Mets. They have the best record in the National League, a game and a half better than the Padres. They have the 4th best record in all of baseball.
This is just the 3rd time since 2004 that the Braves have had a winning record 70 games into the season. This is the 1st time in the last 7 years that the Braves have been in 1st place in the East after 70 games. The last time the Braves had the best record in the NL after 70 games was in 2003. That was the last truly dominant Braves team, in terms of the regular season, as they began trimming payroll and acting more like a “small market” team after that year. Check out where the Braves have been after 70 games over the last few years:
2010: 42-28 (1st place in the East, 2.5 games up; best record in NL by 1.5 games)
2009: 34-36 (4th place, 4 games out)
2008: 34-36 (3rd place, 6.5 games out)
2007: 37-33 (2nd place, 1.5 games out)
2006: 30-40 (5th place, 14 games out)
2005: 37-33 (3rd place, 3.5 games out)
2004: 32-38 (4th place, 6.5 games out)
2003: 46-24 (1st place, 7 games up; best record in NL by 3.5 games)
The Surprising and Delightful Offensive Revolution
Yeah, so when and how did the Braves turn into the most patient and intelligent hitting team in the NL? I’ll be honest: it’s a bit of a puzzler for me too. It didn’t happen overnight, but it’s still hard to explain the Braves’ dramatic leap forward in plate discipline even from last year to this season. How is it that the Braves are now easily the most patient team in the NL? They work the count, they draw walks, and they make good contact. Suddenly, all of those annoying things that the Braves used to do offensively have seemingly disappeared. All of the sudden, the Braves have the offensive game plan and approach that you always dreamed they would have.
Who saw this coming? In Terry Pendleton’s first 6 seasons as the Atlanta batting coach (2002-2007) the Braves never ranked higher than 5th in the NL in walks. They were tied for 6th or worse in BB in 5 of those 6 seasons. The Braves’ plate discipline/patience was fairly consistent during the first few Francoeur/McCann/Johnson seasons. The Braves averaged 3.30 BB/Game in 2005, 3.25 BB/Game in 2006, and 3.30 BB/Game in 2007. Not so good.
Then in 2008, with Mark Teixeira in the lineup for much of the season and Brian McCann starting to become more selective, the Braves walk total increased by a fairly significant amount. They went from 534 walks in 2007 (3.30 BB per game, 7th in the NL) to 618 walks in 2008 (3.81 BB per game, 3rd in the NL). Last season, with Teixeira gone, the Braves walk total fell off only slightly to 602 (3.72 BB per game, 5th in the NL). So, the Braves were basically averaging 0.5 more walks per game in 08-09 than they were in 05-07.
This season the Braves have made even bigger improvements. The Braves have drawn 317 walks in 70 games this season—by far and away the highest total in the league—averaging 4.53 walks per game. Honestly, I can’t entirely explain this development. Some of the different reasons for the dramatic increase in bases on balls are not hard to identify. The removal of Frenchy from the everyday lineup and the replacement of Frenchy in right field with Jason Heyward has been huge. In parts of 5 seasons in Atlanta, Jeff Francoeur amassed 2632 plate appearances and drew a total of 127 walks; about 1 BB ever 20.7 PA. In less than half of a season, Jason Heyward has amassed 287 plate appearances and has already earned 42 walks; about 1 BB ever 6.8 PA. Heyward arrived at the Majors with a great eye and great discipline. Also, teams quickly discovered that he wasn’t the guy to challenge in the Braves lineup.
Early on, before Jason Heyward proved how good he was, and before Troy Glaus proved he was still dangerous, teams were pitching around Brian McCann and Chipper Jones constantly. Mac has steadily become a more disciplined hitter, and with teams not challenging him his BB total has increased. Chipper has always been willing to walk rather than extend his zone. It appeared to me, especially early on in the season, that Chipper was even more willing than usual to layoff pitches just outside the zone. It seems that he understands that he is simply not as capable of doing damage as he once was, and thus he’s been even more selective. Then Troy Glaus started making pitchers pay for pitching around others in order to get to him. As teams have become more careful with Glaus, he has been taking more walks himself.
And I guess it just becomes contagious. The Braves have taken to that game plan of working the count and working the pitcher and not making outs and turning it over to the next guy. The Yankees and Red Sox in the American League, as well as the Phillies in the National League, have used this team approach at the plate to great success over the last few years. The only major difference with the Braves is that they have not been a very powerful team. The Braves have been able to score lots of runs without hitting a lot of homers. It’s not like they’ve been hitting at some absurd clip with runners in scoring position, though they have hit well in those spots (including with RISP and 2 out). They’ve simply had so many base runners that they are bound to score runs.
This has actually cured the Braves of one of the weaknesses that they have had in recent years. After getting off to a very slow start, the Braves have been a much more consistent offensive team this season, as they have been less reliant on homers and luck. Martin Prado leads the NL in hits and batting average, but they don’t have anyone else in the top 20 in the league in either category. Troy Glaus is tied for 6th in the NL in homers but no one else is in the top 20 in the league in HR, and the Braves don’t have a single player in the top 20 in the NL in Slugging. However, the Braves have 4 players in the top 15 in the NL in walks (Chipper, Heyward, Glaus, Mac); 5 players in the top 14 in the NL in OBP (Chipper, Heyward, Glaus, Prado, Mac); 3 players in the top 16 in the NL in pitches per plate appearance (Heyward, Mac, Glaus); 5 players in the top 12 in the NL in BB/PA (Chipper, Mac, Heyward, Glaus, Escobar); and 3 players in the top 7 in the NL in BB/K (Chipper, Escobar, Mac).
The Braves have a plan of attack at the plate this season and they are working it to great success. Despite being 12th in the NL in homers and 14th in stolen bases, the Braves lead the league in runs scored per game. Despite being 13th in Slugging, the Braves are 4th in OPS, as they lead the league in walks and OBP. They are 6th in strikeouts (fewest), 3rd in batting average, 2nd in doubles, and 2nd in sacrifice hits. And the Braves’ great OBP is no fluke; they are tied for 14th in HBP.
The Braves may eventually slow down offensively. On the other hand, they could get better. While guys like Eric Hinske, Prado, and Glaus may come down to earth at some point, Chipper Jones, Mac, Escobar, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, and Matt Diaz are all guys that could be stronger offensively from here on out. Let’s be positive, and expect bigger and better things. Why the hell not? We’ve been pleasantly surprised so far.
Status after 70 Games
The Braves are now a season best 14 games over .500 at 42-28 (.600) and on pace for around 97 wins. They are in 1st place in the NL East, 2.5 games up on the hated Mets. They have the best record in the National League, a game and a half better than the Padres. They have the 4th best record in all of baseball.
This is just the 3rd time since 2004 that the Braves have had a winning record 70 games into the season. This is the 1st time in the last 7 years that the Braves have been in 1st place in the East after 70 games. The last time the Braves had the best record in the NL after 70 games was in 2003. That was the last truly dominant Braves team, in terms of the regular season, as they began trimming payroll and acting more like a “small market” team after that year. Check out where the Braves have been after 70 games over the last few years:
2010: 42-28 (1st place in the East, 2.5 games up; best record in NL by 1.5 games)
2009: 34-36 (4th place, 4 games out)
2008: 34-36 (3rd place, 6.5 games out)
2007: 37-33 (2nd place, 1.5 games out)
2006: 30-40 (5th place, 14 games out)
2005: 37-33 (3rd place, 3.5 games out)
2004: 32-38 (4th place, 6.5 games out)
2003: 46-24 (1st place, 7 games up; best record in NL by 3.5 games)
The Surprising and Delightful Offensive Revolution
Yeah, so when and how did the Braves turn into the most patient and intelligent hitting team in the NL? I’ll be honest: it’s a bit of a puzzler for me too. It didn’t happen overnight, but it’s still hard to explain the Braves’ dramatic leap forward in plate discipline even from last year to this season. How is it that the Braves are now easily the most patient team in the NL? They work the count, they draw walks, and they make good contact. Suddenly, all of those annoying things that the Braves used to do offensively have seemingly disappeared. All of the sudden, the Braves have the offensive game plan and approach that you always dreamed they would have.
Who saw this coming? In Terry Pendleton’s first 6 seasons as the Atlanta batting coach (2002-2007) the Braves never ranked higher than 5th in the NL in walks. They were tied for 6th or worse in BB in 5 of those 6 seasons. The Braves’ plate discipline/patience was fairly consistent during the first few Francoeur/McCann/Johnson seasons. The Braves averaged 3.30 BB/Game in 2005, 3.25 BB/Game in 2006, and 3.30 BB/Game in 2007. Not so good.
Then in 2008, with Mark Teixeira in the lineup for much of the season and Brian McCann starting to become more selective, the Braves walk total increased by a fairly significant amount. They went from 534 walks in 2007 (3.30 BB per game, 7th in the NL) to 618 walks in 2008 (3.81 BB per game, 3rd in the NL). Last season, with Teixeira gone, the Braves walk total fell off only slightly to 602 (3.72 BB per game, 5th in the NL). So, the Braves were basically averaging 0.5 more walks per game in 08-09 than they were in 05-07.
This season the Braves have made even bigger improvements. The Braves have drawn 317 walks in 70 games this season—by far and away the highest total in the league—averaging 4.53 walks per game. Honestly, I can’t entirely explain this development. Some of the different reasons for the dramatic increase in bases on balls are not hard to identify. The removal of Frenchy from the everyday lineup and the replacement of Frenchy in right field with Jason Heyward has been huge. In parts of 5 seasons in Atlanta, Jeff Francoeur amassed 2632 plate appearances and drew a total of 127 walks; about 1 BB ever 20.7 PA. In less than half of a season, Jason Heyward has amassed 287 plate appearances and has already earned 42 walks; about 1 BB ever 6.8 PA. Heyward arrived at the Majors with a great eye and great discipline. Also, teams quickly discovered that he wasn’t the guy to challenge in the Braves lineup.
Early on, before Jason Heyward proved how good he was, and before Troy Glaus proved he was still dangerous, teams were pitching around Brian McCann and Chipper Jones constantly. Mac has steadily become a more disciplined hitter, and with teams not challenging him his BB total has increased. Chipper has always been willing to walk rather than extend his zone. It appeared to me, especially early on in the season, that Chipper was even more willing than usual to layoff pitches just outside the zone. It seems that he understands that he is simply not as capable of doing damage as he once was, and thus he’s been even more selective. Then Troy Glaus started making pitchers pay for pitching around others in order to get to him. As teams have become more careful with Glaus, he has been taking more walks himself.
And I guess it just becomes contagious. The Braves have taken to that game plan of working the count and working the pitcher and not making outs and turning it over to the next guy. The Yankees and Red Sox in the American League, as well as the Phillies in the National League, have used this team approach at the plate to great success over the last few years. The only major difference with the Braves is that they have not been a very powerful team. The Braves have been able to score lots of runs without hitting a lot of homers. It’s not like they’ve been hitting at some absurd clip with runners in scoring position, though they have hit well in those spots (including with RISP and 2 out). They’ve simply had so many base runners that they are bound to score runs.
This has actually cured the Braves of one of the weaknesses that they have had in recent years. After getting off to a very slow start, the Braves have been a much more consistent offensive team this season, as they have been less reliant on homers and luck. Martin Prado leads the NL in hits and batting average, but they don’t have anyone else in the top 20 in the league in either category. Troy Glaus is tied for 6th in the NL in homers but no one else is in the top 20 in the league in HR, and the Braves don’t have a single player in the top 20 in the NL in Slugging. However, the Braves have 4 players in the top 15 in the NL in walks (Chipper, Heyward, Glaus, Mac); 5 players in the top 14 in the NL in OBP (Chipper, Heyward, Glaus, Prado, Mac); 3 players in the top 16 in the NL in pitches per plate appearance (Heyward, Mac, Glaus); 5 players in the top 12 in the NL in BB/PA (Chipper, Mac, Heyward, Glaus, Escobar); and 3 players in the top 7 in the NL in BB/K (Chipper, Escobar, Mac).
The Braves have a plan of attack at the plate this season and they are working it to great success. Despite being 12th in the NL in homers and 14th in stolen bases, the Braves lead the league in runs scored per game. Despite being 13th in Slugging, the Braves are 4th in OPS, as they lead the league in walks and OBP. They are 6th in strikeouts (fewest), 3rd in batting average, 2nd in doubles, and 2nd in sacrifice hits. And the Braves’ great OBP is no fluke; they are tied for 14th in HBP.
The Braves may eventually slow down offensively. On the other hand, they could get better. While guys like Eric Hinske, Prado, and Glaus may come down to earth at some point, Chipper Jones, Mac, Escobar, Melky Cabrera, Nate McLouth, and Matt Diaz are all guys that could be stronger offensively from here on out. Let’s be positive, and expect bigger and better things. Why the hell not? We’ve been pleasantly surprised so far.
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