What a Month
The Braves have gone from worst to first in just over a month’s time. At the end of play on April 29th, the Braves lost their 9th straight game to fall to 8-14. They had been outscored 81-101 on the year and they were in last in the East, 5 games behind the 1st place Mets, 4.5 behind the Phillies, 4 games behind the Nats, and 3 games behind the 4th place Marlins. They were tied with the Dodgers for last in the National League, 7 games behind the team with the best record.
Since then the Braves have gone 21-8, outscoring opponents 167-102. The Phillies have gone just 16-13 during that same time, and after the Braves beat Philly yesterday they moved a half game ahead of them in 1st place in the East. The win was the Braves’ 6th straight and it pushed their record to 29-22 on the year. They are now 3.5 games ahead of the Nationals, Mets, and Marlins, and they are tied for 4th in the NL (again with LA), just 2 games behind the team with the best record. During their first 22 games, the Braves were outscored by more than 3 runs 5 times. They’ve lost by more than 3 runs just twice in their past 28 games. That’s how you get back in it.
We haven’t had a turnaround like this in a while. The last similar reversal came in 2004 when the Braves started off 33-39, falling into 4th place, and dropping as far as 6.5 out of 1st, before going 63-27 the rest of the way to win the division again. But while the Braves haven’t been this hot since then, it’s not like the Braves are in an unusual place.
In fact, the Braves are not far off from where they have been at this point in each of the 4 seasons since the final division title in 2005. The only major difference is that nobody in the NL East has been better than Atlanta to this point. In 2006, the Braves were 27-24 after 51 games (2 games off the current pace) and in 2nd in the East, 4.5 out of 1st. In 2007, the Braves were 29-22 (the same record they have now) and in 2nd place, 4 games out of 1st. In 2008 the Braves were 28-23 (1 game off the current pace) and in 2nd in the East, 2.5 out. Last year they were 26-25 after 51 games (3 games off the current pace) and in 3rd in the East, 4.5 out of 1st.
I don’t have to remind you that in each of those last 4 seasons the Braves have finished 3rd or worse in the East, finishing below .500 twice, and never winning more than 86 games. Also, in the 2 losing seasons the Braves have had since 1991 (2006 and 2008), the Braves started the season with a poor March/April and then rebounded with a good month of May, just as they did this year (9-14 in April; 20-8 in May). In 2006, the Braves went 10-14 in April and 18-11 in May; in 2008, the Braves were 12-15 in March/April and 17-12 in May. In both cases, the Braves fell back off in June. In ’06, the drop-off was extreme, as the Braves went just 6-21 in June. In 2008, the Braves went just 11-16 in June. In 2006, 2007, and 2008 the Braves best month of the year ended up being March/April or May. Last year was a change, as the Braves’ 17-10 record in September was their best of the year.
I don’t bring all of this up to say that there’s no reason to get excited about this year’s team. It’s just hard to ignore the fact that while this year’s team may FEEL different right now, their season so far has been remarkably similar to the first two months of the last 4 seasons. But there are some reasons to think that that the Braves may have turned a corner. They went 51-36 in their last 87 games last year and their 29-22 start to this year makes them 80-58 (.580) over their last 138 games. If you take away the Braves’ 6 game losing streak to end last season—the last 5 losses of which came after the Braves were eliminated from the postseason—the Braves have gone 80-52 (.606) since the middle of June last year. Again, it’s been awhile since the Braves have had that good of a record over a long period.
Everybody Contributing
This Braves team has had a handful of players having outstanding seasons (Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Tim Hudson), but mostly the Braves have been getting a little bit from just about everybody. Fortunately, as others have fallen off or missed a game or two with injuries, somebody else has stepped up. Recently, there have been signs that two of the guys expected to carry much of the load for the Braves might be coming around. As I’ve mentioned before, the Braves will not be able to contend if they have to go an entire season without Chipper Jones ever becoming Chipper Jones again. Chipper has started to show signs of life at the plate in the last week or so. Chipper is in a modest hot stretch, going 14 for his last 45 to hit .311/.415/.422/.837 with 2 doubles, a homer, 12 RBI, 8 BB, 7 K, 1 GDP, and 1 SB in 1 attempt. He finally went deep again yesterday for the first time since mid-April, and hopefully he’ll keep rolling from here.
Yunel Escobar is another key player for this Braves team who has struggled so far this year. He also is starting to come out of it a bit. Again, he hasn’t caught fire yet, but he’s 9 for his last 23 with a double, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K, and 0 GDP, hitting .391/.462/.435/.897 during that stretch. Escobar’s defense and focus in all areas of the game seem to improve when he’s hitting well, so getting Esco going is crucial.
I didn’t expect much from Melky Cabrera. I still don’t expect much from Melky Cabrera, but he’s been damn close to decent recently. He’s 13 for his last 31 with 2 doubles, a homer, 2 RBI, a walk, 5 K, and 2 SB in 2 tries. He’s hit .419/.438/.581/1.018 over his last 11 games. He’s bound to struggle because he hacks a lot and doesn’t have much power or speed, but he’s been better than Nate McLouth lately.
Speaking of McLouth...
He looks like he could use a trip to Gwinnett. Honestly, he’s just getting abused at the plate right now. It looked for a moment like he was starting to heat up (or at least defrost a bit), but he’s definitely going wrong way at this point. Nate went 0 for 4 yesterday and in his last 10 games he is 2 for 31 with no EXBH, 3 BB, 10 K, 1 HBP, 2 SH, and 2 SB in 2 attempts. He’s hitting .065/.171/.065/.236 over that stretch. Nate is 3 for 39 with 2 outs. He’s 0 for 13 with 5 K’s and only 1 walk with 2 out and RISP.
Buzz at the Stadium? Maybe, but not yet at the Gate
At the close of the game the other day, Chip Carey was raising his voice and advising viewers that if they hadn’t made it down to Turner Field yet there was starting to be a buzz about this team. That would seem to be true in a way. There are a lot of excited people at Turner Field, but it’s been that way since opening day. The crowds at the Ted are getting better if not bigger. Despite rainy weather and a totally uninteresting opponent, the Braves drew crowds of 29,134 on Saturday night and 31,078 on Sunday. That’s not disappointing in my opinion. And Sunday’s crowd was there to root and not just to watch and eat hot dogs. They booed the umpires, gave Kenshin Kawakami a very nice hand as he left the game, and they were very lively during the top of the 9th. Then on Labor Day the attendance was 42,543. If the Braves keep playing well, maybe the buzz will extend beyond the outfield seats.
As of yet, the “buzz” hasn’t turned into inspiring returns at the gate. The Braves are averaging 28,891 a game, despite home series with the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, and Rockies. They are 14th out of 30 MLB teams in average home attendance. On average, Turner Field has been filled to 57.7% capacity (15th in the MLB). Those numbers are actually down from last season, when the Braves averaged 29,304 a game. Now, attendance is of course affected by school being in or out of session, and there are a million other things that can cause attendance to go up or down. But so far, Jason Heyward, late game dramatics, moderate success on the field, and a tsunami of Bobby Cox promotions has not led to an increase in fans coming out to the Ted. If the season ended today, the Braves would have their lowest average attendance in the history of Turner Field. Hopefully more folks will start coming out as summer gets underway.
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