Weirdness Abounds in the MLB
I don’t know, maybe it’s just me, but hasn’t this been one of the more bizarre MLB seasons in recent memory? Do you realize that if the season ended today the Reds and Padres would be in the playoffs? Jose Bautista has 15 times as many homers as Todd Helton. There’s a relief pitcher on pace for 24 wins. It’s been strange.
The Long Ball
The current home run leader board is off the wall. It’s like the top 25 in NCAA Football for Play Station or Xbox, when the computer doesn’t seem to understand that it’s a bit weird to have Marshall, Fresno State, and Wake in the top 5 at the end of the year. Not only are many of the usual suspects absent from the top of the homer leader board, the guys who are at the top don’t seem to belong. Almost 30% of the season has been played, and Jose Bautista is the Major League Leader in homers with 15. He’s the only player in the Majors on pace for 50 homers. Last year Bautista was tied for 139th in homers with 13. Paul Konerko is by no means a stranger to the home run leader board, but his presence there this season is a bit surprising. Pauly is 2nd in the MLB with 14 dingers, after hitting 28 last year to finish tied for 32nd in homers. Then you got another random guy: Ty Wiggington. Wiggington is 3rd in the Majors with 13 homers. He was tied for 167th with 11 homers in 2009. Like Konerko, Vlad Guerrero has been a great power hitter during his career, but there was no reason to expect him to be among the league leaders in homers this year. Vlad was tied for 115th in HR last season, hitting just 15 all year. He is currently tied for 4th, having hit 12 already this year. A pair of 2nd basemen are tied with Vlad for 4th with 12 bombs. Dan Uggla is known for being a powerful hitter (though even Uggla is on pace to hit 41 homers, which would be 9 more than he has ever hit in one season before), but Kelly Johnson is not. Johnson hit 8 homers all of last season, finishing tied for 219th in the MLB. He’s got 12 this year. Jose Guillen is currently tied for 8th with 11 homers, after finishing tied for 199th last year with 9. Scott Rolen rediscovering his power stroke is absolutely befuddling. He was tied for 167th with 11 homers last year; he’s tied for 12th this year with 10. Alex Gonzalez also has 10, after finishing tied for 219th with 8 homers all of last year. Rod Barajas hit 19 homers last year, tied for 88th in the MLB; he’s got 10 so far this year. Finally, Andruw Jones has 9 homers, tied for 22nd in the Majors, after hitting 17 to finish tied for 100th in homers last year.
Downsizing
The decline in power across baseball as a result of the war on PED’s has continued this season. No player reached 50 homers in either of last 2 seasons, and only Bautista is on pace to get there this year. And Bautista is barely on pace for 50. Albert Pujols led baseball with 47 homers last year, and it’s possible that no one will match even that number this year. Last season, 5 players hit at least 40 homers and 3 hit at least 45; there are currently 7 players on pace for 40 homers and 3 on pace for 45. Right now Johnson and Mark Reynolds are on pace to lead the National League with 43 homers. If that holds up, it will be the lowest total for an NL homerun leader since 1995 (Dante Bichette, 40), and the lowest in a full season since 1992 (McGriff, 35). On the other hand, the AL leader may have at least 40 homers for the first time since 2007.
Power Swinging Back to the Pitchers
Along with the overall drop off in offense over the last few years, it seems that quality starting pitching is starting to become a more common commodity around the league. It has certainly been that way thus far in 2010. Last season 11 qualified pitchers posted ERA’s under 3.00, and 4 finished with ERA’s under 2.50, with Zack Grienke leading the Majors with a 2.16 ERA. There are currently 24 qualified pitchers with ERA’s lower than 3.00, 12 under 2.50, and 6 under 2.10. 2 pitchers have ERA’s of 1.14 or less, with Ubaldo Jimenez leading the Majors with a 0.88 ERA. Last season, 6 qualified pitchers ended the year with a WHIP below 1.10, with Dan Haren leading the MLB with a 1.003 WHIP. This year, 15 qualified pitchers currently have a WHIP under 1.10, and 4 have WHIP’s under 1.00, with Jimenez leading the way with a 0.93 WHIP.
No pitcher won 20 games in the Majors last year. Right now there are 14 pitchers on pace to win 20. Jimenez is actually on pace for 32 wins at the moment. The list of pitchers projected to win 20 should probably be lessened to 13. That’s because 1 of the 14 currently on pace to win 20 games has not made a start all season. In one of the more bizarre developments of this weird year, Washington setup man Tyler Clippard has pitched in 24 games, all as a reliever, and has compiled a record of 7-3. When you add in Clippard’s 10 Holds, he has factored into the decision in 20 of his 24 appearances. The Save stat is always pretty random. Brian Fuentes led the MLB with 48 Saves last year. There are currently 2 pitchers on pace to save at least 50 games this year, including Matt Capps, who is on pace to be the first NL closer to record 55 Saves since Eric Gagne in 2003. Roy Halladay appears poised to lead the MLB in both Complete Games and Shutouts again this year. He had 9 CG and 4 SHO last year, and he has 4 CG and 2 SHO already this season.
The Standings
11 of the 16 NL teams are currently over .500, while 8 of 14 AL teams have winning records. Last year, 8 teams finished over .500 from each league. All 5 teams in the NL East are currently over .500, while 4 of the 5 teams in the AL East and NL West have winning records. Last season, only the Yankees won at least 100 games, finishing with 103 wins. The Rays are the only team currently on pace for at least 100 wins this year. In fact, even after losing 3 straight to the Red Sox, the Rays are on pace to win 110 games. The Nationals were the only team to lose at least 100 games last year, dropping 103 games in 2009. The Indians, Orioles, and Astros are currently on pace to lose at least 100 games, with Houston on pace for 106 losses and Baltimore on pace to lose 110 games.
The Luck Factor
So far, Oakland has been the most fortunate American League team, going 8-2 in 1-run games. The A’s are 24-23 despite a -11 run differential which says they should be more like 22-25. The Nationals have been outscored by 18 runs, a number that suggests they should be around 22-25, but they are 10-6 in 1-run games, and have an overall record of 24-23. Incredibly, the Pirates, who are just 20-27, have actually been the luckiest NL team. The Bucs have a horrid -114 run differential (the next worst run differential is Houston’s -73), a number that suggests they should be around 12-35, but their 10-5 record in 1-run games has them just 7 games below .500. In contrast, the Brewers have a -29 run differential, yet they are 10 games under .500 at 18-28. The Mets are 24-23, but their run differential says they should be more like 26-21. Their 5-11 record in 1-run games is keeping them close to .500. The Mariners have been one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this year with an 18-28 record. They haven’t had a lot of luck, as they are 6-12 in 1-run games. The Royals are 6-11 in 1-run games and just 19-28 overall on the year, heading for another miserable season. The most surprising team in baseball has been the Padres, but their 28-18 record is legit, as they have a +46 run differential. Even after losing 3 straight to the Red Sox, the Rays have Baseball’s best record at 32-15, and they have the best run differential as well, at +87.
Cut on and Missed
At this point my preseason predictions are not looking so hot. 13 teams are on pace to win at least 8 games more or less than I projected. My AL East predictions are seriously struggling. I had the Red Sox winning 99 games; they’re on pace to win 91. I picked the Rays to win 88 games; they’re on pace for 110. I thought the Blue Jays would win only 66 games this year; they’re on pace for 89. I may have seriously misjudged the AL West as well. I had the A’s winning just 73 games, but they’re on pace to win 83. I had the Angels winning 95 games, but they’re on pace for just 76 victories. I thought I was being fairly conservative in predicting the Mariners to win just 84 games, but Seattle is currently on pace for only 63 wins. My NL Central picks are likewise looking dubious at the present time. The Cubs are on pace to win 76 games; I had them winning 87. I had the Brew Crew winning 83 games, but they’re on pace for just 63 W’s. And the Reds have shocked me. I predicted just 73 wins for them, but Cinci is on pace for 93 wins. I had the Nats winning only 62 games, but they’re on pace for 83 wins. The White Sox are on pace for 70 wins, not close to the 86 wins I predicted. It appears I was giving Arizona way too much credit in predicting an 81 win season, as they are on pace to win only 69 games. Finally, my worst prediction at this point by a wide mile appears to be San Diego winning only 60 games. The Padres are currently on pace to win 99 games.
Surprising Strugglers
While a number of veteran players are experiencing unexpected comeback years so far, a handful of perennial All-Stars appear to have fallen hard and fast. Todd Helton is batting just .275/.392/.345/.737 with 7 doubles, only 1 homer, and 9 RBI. Chipper Jones has gotten off to a miserable start, hitting just .219/.377/.336/.712 with 9 doubles, 2 homers, and 14 RBI. Derek Lee is hitting a shocking .239/.341/.381/.722 with 7 doubles, 6 homers, and 23 RBI. And Carlos Lee has so far batted just .199/.236/.322/.558 with 4 doubles, 5 homers, and 19 RBI.
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