Painful to Watch
The Braves are kind of in a holding pattern at the moment. Injuries and a team wide slump have limited Bobby Cox’s options. It doesn’t seem to matter who he puts in the lineup, they just aren’t hitting. Numerous injuries have helped keep the Braves from getting on any sort of a role. There’s not much to do other than sit and wait and hope that guys start playing better.
And the Braves should start hitting at least a little bit better than they have so far this year. If you just look at past performance, nearly every Atlanta position player is performing below their normal standard. Batting average isn’t the greatest stat in the world, but I’m going to use it in this instance because the Braves power and OBP numbers have been so screwy this season. As you’ll see below, 6 Braves regulars are hitting well below their career batting average going into this season (career batting average going into this season followed by current average).
Nate McLouth .260 .169
Yunel Escobar .301 .215
Chipper Jones .307 .230
Brian McCann .293 .229
Matt Diaz .310 .171
Melky Cabrera .269 .194
Until at least one or two of these guys start hitting it’s useless to speculate on the Braves’ chances of contending for a Wild Card. You simply can’t have 6 of 9 players in the lineup hitting below .230 and expect to have any sort of success.
Fearing the Future
I know that most people have long been aware of the gap between the Phillies and the Braves, but it has become even more obvious during the first 30 or so games of 2010. It’s not even close. The Phillies are better than the Braves in every area. What’s scary is that the Phils have already won 3 consecutive NL East titles, and you wonder if they aren’t setting up for a run similar to the one the Braves had during the 90’s and early 2000’s.
It’s not just the talent and makeup of the current rosters that should have Braves fans worried. The Phillies are now in a different league than the Braves in terms of payroll size. The Braves aren’t as financially strapped as the cheapest teams in the East but they don’t spend anywhere near as much as the most expensive teams in the division. The Braves are in the middle, well above the Marlins and Nationals, but well below the Mets and Phillies. Ironically, the Phillies were in the same position the Braves are in now about 10 years ago. It took a long time for the Phillies to break through and it could take just as long for the Braves to get back to the top of the division now that they’ve fallen.
If the Braves are going to turn things around as a franchise it will probably have to start with making better use of the money they do have. Exact numbers are hard to come by, but the Braves currently have a payroll of around $85 million, while the Mets and Phillies are both around $140 million. It’s hard enough to compete with teams that have nearly double the payroll that you have. Right now, the Braves are in rough shape because their money isn’t going to good use. Consider that Derek Lowe ($15 million), Chipper Jones ($14 million) and Kenshin Kawakami ($7.3 million) are the #1, #2, and #4 highest paid players on the roster respectively.
While Chipper’s sharp decline and his inability to stay healthy have made his salary no longer acceptable, it’s the two pitchers who are really the problem. Right now the Braves are getting worse than nothing from Lowe and Kawakami. If you throw in Nate McLouth at $5 million a year (7th highest on the team), that means you’re getting next to nothing from 4 of the 7 highest paid players on the team, and there’s not much hope of any of these players turning things around (apart from maybe Chipper).
You think back to a couple of offseasons ago when Frank McCourt was just throwing money at anybody who would take it and you wonder what he could have been thinking. He was acting like the Braves were playing with the kind of money that the Phillies and Mets have. If that sort of thing continues in the future the Braves are going to be mediocre for a long time.
I have never seen Chipper struggle like he is right now. Injuries are part of it but he just doesn’t seem to have the ability anymore. He isn’t hitting the ball hard. He’s actually had several fluky hits recently that have helped his average stay above .200. Since the start of last season, Chipper has played in 170 games and had 575 at bats, during which time he has hit .259 with 20 homers, while slugging .421. Those aren’t Chipper numbers but they’re much better than he’s putting up right now. In fact, if you go back to August of last season the numbers are pretty dreadful. In his last 69 games, Chipper is just 38 for 226 with 5 homers and 10 doubles for a .168 average and a .279 slugging percentage. Yikes.
McLouth appears hopelessly removed from his career year of 2008. Going back to the middle of last September, in his last 46 games McLouth has gone 24 for 155 with 4 homers and 6 doubles for a .155 batting average and a .271 SLG PCT.
The Braves highest paid player, Derek Lowe, is currently their worst starting pitcher, and he has been for some time. Lowe has been a disaster. In 41 career starts with Atlanta, Lowe has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. What’s scary is that his first 2 months with the Braves were actually solid. If you go back over his last 28 starts, Lowe’s numbers are jaw-droppingly bad. Over 149 innings, Lowe has posted a 5.74 ERA and an unimaginable 1.74 WHIP, while allowing 19 dingers. He has gone 6 innings just twice in 7 starts this season and has yet to go further in any game. Over his last 28 starts, Lowe has pitched 7 innings only twice, and has never pitched deeper than that.
As for Kawakami, the guy just flat out isn’t very good. His stuff is average and he doesn’t have the makeup to be a good MLB pitcher. The Braves totally whiffed on this guy. In fact, it’s probably the biggest blunder the Braves have made since before John Schuerholz came to Atlanta after 1990. KK has lost all 6 of his starts so far this season, posting a 5.73 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while allowing 6 homers and striking out just 16 batters over 33 innings.
Easier Schedule Ahead
Over the next few weeks the Braves should be able to tread water, even if the hitting is slow to pickup and the injuries linger. The Braves have 2 more games in Milwaukee against a Brewers team that is below .500. After that the Braves come home for 7 games against the D-Backs, Mets, and Reds, before going on the road to play the Pirates. The Braves should be able to hold their own against those teams and perhaps they can do a little better if they can get a couple of guys going offensively.
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