Head Above Water After 45 Games
Back to back losses, but I would definitely have taken 23-22 if you’d offered it to me 3 weeks ago. We’re definitely fortunate to be where we are, but the Braves are playing better. The Braves are just about where they have been at this point in the season over the last 6 or 7 years. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Here’s a look at the Braves’ record after 45 games, along with their record at the end of the year going back to 2004 (and there’s no reason to look back farther than that, as the Braves were still being run more like a major market team before that):
2004: 22-23 (96-66)
2005: 26-19 (90-72)
2006: 23-22 (79-83)
2007: 27-18 (84-78)
2008: 24-21 (72-90)*
2009: 23-22 (86-76)
2010: 23-22 (???)
*49-56 before Teixiera trade.
Chipper Struggling
The Braves bats—frigid in April—were bound to heat up sooner or later, and most of the struggling hitters are doing better this month. Of the Braves batters who got off to very poor starts (Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Troy Glaus, Yunel Escobar, Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera) only Troy Glaus has ever really gotten “hot,” and he appears to be coming back to earth. Diaz will be on the shelf for at least a month and Cabrera has been relegated to the bench due to the emergence of Eric Hinske. Mac has been coming around since going back to the glasses. I’ll get to Esco and McLouth later. The most important of all these bats by far is Chipper.
If Chipper doesn’t come around, the Braves aren’t going to win. It’s as simple as that. I don’t know that enough Braves fans understand this reality. Chipper has to start playing more like himself or the Braves aren’t going to contend. Quite honestly, I’m starting to get worried. He was starting to get on a mini roll until last night, when he went 0 for 5 with a GDP, 0 for 3 with RISP.
Chipper is now hitting just .226, but his average isn’t the major problem, it’s the lack of authority with which he has hit almost all season that is the real issue. In 32 games, Chipper has drawn 33 walks and struck out only 19 times in 157 plate appearances, but he has just 11 extra base hits and 2 homers. He is slugging .347. This is what sets Chipper’s current “slump” apart from the rest of his career basically. Looking at his numbers through 32 games from the last few years it is the drop off in power that is most striking. Take a look at his numbers after his first 32 appearances from 2009 (a disappointing year, 2008 and 2007 (both excellent seasons), and 2004 (the worst year of his career to this point). Keep in mind that his first 32 games have often spread out due to injuries.
2009 (40 hits, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers, 28 BB, 24 K .305/.429/473/.902 in 161 PA)
2008 (63 hits, 9 doubles, 11 homers, 20 BB, 15 K, .412/.474/.686/1.161 in 175 PA)
2007 (46 hits, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 12 homers, 24 BB, 25 K, .309/.405/.655/1.062 in 173 PA)
2004 (26 hits, 2 doubles, 9 homers, 25 BB, 33 K, .217/.361/.458/.819 in 147 PA)
Now look at his numbers through 32 games this year:
28 hits, 9 doubles, 2 homers, 32 BB, 19 K, .226/.382/.347/.729 in 157 PA
The power numbers stand out. Even in 2004 when he was clearly hurt and screwed up at the plate (8 more strikeouts than walks is highly unusual for CJ) and last year when he had his worst season since that ’04 campaign, he was still slugging over 100 points higher through 32 games than he is right now.
The numbers alone are troubling, but watching Chipper play is even more discouraging. At times, even when supposedly healthy, Chipper appears feeble at the plate. He has been beaten consistently by less than overwhelming stuff and at other times he just appears to be “off.” Batting from the left or right side he has never been consistently on the ball this year.
Heading into the 2009 season there was talk that Chipper was going to make a conscious effort to get back to “driving” the ball more. Chipper made some comments insinuating that during his flirtations with .400 during the 2008 season he had unconsciously started focusing on getting hits rather than slugging. I’m sure this was partly the case, but it may also have been that Chipper naturally adjusted to some declining skills. Instead of going after a pitch on the outside and either driving it in the air to right center/right or pulling it on the ground to second, he started serving it into left/left center for a base hit. He is such a smart and talented hitter that it translated into a career year in terms of batting average, while at the same time taking away some of the power.
Last year the power numbers didn’t drastically decline but he obviously wasn’t as successful getting base hits. This year everything has dropped way off other than his walks (which may never decline). If Chipper consciously or unconsciously started serving the ball rather than driving it in 2008 and the early part of 2009, I believe he is trying to adjust again this season (consciously or unconsciously).
The difference, perhaps, is that where his ‘08/early ’09 changes were the wise adjustments of a brilliant veteran, the changes he is making now are the desperate attempts of a former start in the twilight of his career. Unless Chipper is just guessing wrong more often than normal (which doesn’t seem likely), he’s simply guessing more often than normal. Why? Perhaps he knows (consciously or unconsciously) that he can’t react like he used to and he’s frustrated so he’s just over thinking. Other times he seems to be doing mechanical things that are very unusual for him. He’s flying open on outside pitches as a right handed batter and lunging at outside pitches as a left handed batter. I watch a lot of the game in slow motion (literally) and there are many times when you can tell before the point of contact that he has no chance of hitting the ball hard.
Again, I don’t think he’s getting fooled all the time, I think he’s either just way off in his mechanics from both sides of the plate, or he’s overcompensating because his swing has slowed down and he doesn’t have the strength in his legs anymore, or both. Worst of all, there have been times recently where Chipper almost appeared to give in, taking weak, defensive swings at pitches just to put them in play. In two different at bats in last night’s game it appeared that once it was clear that the pitcher wasn’t going to work around Chipper, CJ simply gave in and just tried to make contact, and on both occasions the result was a weak grounder to the left side.
I don’t know; I could be making too big of a deal out of some of these things, but Chipper is just not Chipper right now, and he hasn’t been all season. This is going to continue to be a major problem for the team until/unless he gets his game back. Some fans don’t seem to want to admit that Chipper can’t just be moved up or down the lineup or benched or something like that. People that want Chipper to retire are not only detached emotionally in a way I don’t understand (or maybe it’s the other way around), they are also failing to grasp the reality of the situation. The Braves need Chipper.
I don’t know; I could be making too big of a deal out of some of these things, but Chipper is just not Chipper right now, and he hasn’t been all season. This is going to continue to be a major problem for the team until/unless he gets his game back. Some fans don’t seem to want to admit that Chipper can’t just be moved up or down the lineup or benched or something like that. People that want Chipper to retire are not only detached emotionally in a way I don’t understand (or maybe it’s the other way around), they are also failing to grasp the reality of the situation. The Braves need Chipper.
Excluding Jason Heyward from the situation—because he either hasn’t hit his first rookie bump yet or he’s really, really, really special—Chipper is still the Braves best hitter, in terms of knowledge, discipline, versatility, and talent. Chipper is still (or at least he was until this season) the only guy in the lineup who hits consistently for both average and power. Unlike Mac, Chipper isn’t neutralized by lefties, and he isn’t painfully slow like Mac and Glaus. Chipper is the only #3 hitter on the roster other than Heyward, and Heyward is hitting in the number 2 spot in front of Chipper because it’s a safe spot where he will be likely to see a lot of fastballs.
Chipper just has to start hitting for the Braves to win over the long haul. It’s as simple as that.
McLouth Coming Around (Maybe)
Nate McLouth is still struggling to keep his average above .200 and he’s still striking out too much, but he’s been contributing more lately. Fortunately, Nate is the one guy out of the players still hitting closer to .200 than .250 that is hitting for some power. In his last 11 games, Nate has hit .263/.349/.447/.796 with 4 doubles, a homer, 1 SB in 1 Attempt, 5 BB, and 11 strikeouts. He needs to make more contact and he needs to steal more bases.
Escobar-ed Out
I gotta be honest, I wouldn’t mind if we got rid of Escobar. I know it’s not going to happen because he’s still coming cheap and the Braves don’t have anyone to replace him, but I really don’t need to see him anymore. Let’s look at Escobar’s assets: He doesn’t have an expensive contract; overall he appears to be improving at the plate from year to year; he has a great arm and good instincts at shortstop; he has the ability to battle pitchers; he makes good contact; and he has an uncanny knack for coming through in clutch situations.
All of this is good. Here are the negatives: He is prone to mental mistakes in the field and on the bases; he pouts and seems generally uninterested whenever he is struggling or even when he isn’t directly involved in the action; he seems to lose focus and give up at bats; he has no speed and isn’t much of a base stealer; he has little power outside of an 8 game stretch last year when he hit 4 homers; he gets injured quite a bit for a young position player, causing him to miss time and causing his performance to suffer when he plays hurt; he rarely hustles out of the box; he is slow and usually hits the ball on the ground, making him a GDP machine; and he acts like a spoiled brat a lot of the time.
Maybe Escobar will eventually get going this year and have as good as or even a better year than last season. But his play has been poor this season and his attitude has been worse. His slump at the plate extends back to last season. In his last 58 games, Escobar is 44 for 206 with no homers, hitting .214 with a .267 Slugging PCT over that time. This season, Escobar has hit .175/.271/.219/.490 in 32 games, with 5 doubles, no homers, 15 BB, 12 K, and 6 GDP. He is 3 for 3 in stolen base attempts. In 10 games since coming off of the DL, Escobar has hit .086/.146/.114/.260 with a double, no homers, 6 BB, 3 K, 1 SB, and 3 GDP.
The slow start to the year is unusual for Escobar. In his first 32 games as a big leaguer back in 2007, Escobar hit .299 with 8 doubles and a homer. Through 32 games in 2008 Escobar hit .333 with 4 doubles, a triple, and 3 homers. Last season in his first 32 games Escobar hit .297 with 9 doubles and 3 homers. On the other hand, Escobar has been a much better 2nd half player than 1st half player during his brief career, hitting .277/.342/.383/.725 before the All-Star break, and .312/.398/.447/.845 after. Hopefully he’ll start contributing soon, because all of the attitude and personality “quirks” are much harder to accept when he’s sucking.
Jessie Chavez = Dead Weight?
I know Jessie Chavez’s role on the team doesn’t seem that important. Getting good work from the 6th man in the bullpen is obviously not as crucial as getting production from your #3 hitter or ace starter. But consider that the Braves have played 45 games, and Chavez has appeared in 15 of them; only 1 fewer than Kris Medlen and Billy Wagner. I mean the guy’s pitched in a third of the games this year, so he’s not exactly the 3rd catcher on an AL team. The point is, he’s getting a lot of work out of the Braves’ pen, and it isn’t going well.
Chavez’s numbers overall aren’t terrible. Well, they’re pretty terrible, but they don’t reflect how bad he’s been lately. In 15 games, Chavez has posted a 7.71 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP over 21 innings, though he has struck out 21 batters with only 6 walks. However, in his last 8 appearances, Chavez has been horrible (his solid 3 innings against the Reds in the miracle comeback game being a rare exception). Over his last 8 outings, Chavez has given up 17 runs (all earned) on 19 hits and 5 walks over 11.2 innings for a 13.11 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP. Over those 11.2 innings Chavez has fanned 12, but he’s also yielded 8 doubles and 5 homers. There may not be a better replacement at the moment. Obviously there isn’t, considering that the Braves just brought up a similarly average pitcher to add to the back of the bullpen in Cristhian Martinez.
Final Thoughts
The Braves need to go ahead and win these last two games with the Marlins to keep the momentum they gained from the series wins over the Reds and Pirates. They should have the edge in the starting pitching match up in each of the next two games. It will be important to win this series and not slip up against the Pirates at home this weekend, because 13 of the next 17 games after that will be against division leaders and the red hot Dodgers. A home series with the Phillies next week starts that tough stretch. After 3 with the Phils, the Braves go on the road for 11 games in 11 days. That road trip does include 4 games against the D-Backs, but it starts with 4 against the Dodgers and ends with a 3 game series in Minnesota. When the Braves finally do come home they will have to deal with the Rays. So the Braves need to win at least 4 of their next 5 in order to be in good position to deal with that rough spot in the schedule.
Maybe Escobar will eventually get going this year and have as good as or even a better year than last season. But his play has been poor this season and his attitude has been worse. His slump at the plate extends back to last season. In his last 58 games, Escobar is 44 for 206 with no homers, hitting .214 with a .267 Slugging PCT over that time. This season, Escobar has hit .175/.271/.219/.490 in 32 games, with 5 doubles, no homers, 15 BB, 12 K, and 6 GDP. He is 3 for 3 in stolen base attempts. In 10 games since coming off of the DL, Escobar has hit .086/.146/.114/.260 with a double, no homers, 6 BB, 3 K, 1 SB, and 3 GDP.
The slow start to the year is unusual for Escobar. In his first 32 games as a big leaguer back in 2007, Escobar hit .299 with 8 doubles and a homer. Through 32 games in 2008 Escobar hit .333 with 4 doubles, a triple, and 3 homers. Last season in his first 32 games Escobar hit .297 with 9 doubles and 3 homers. On the other hand, Escobar has been a much better 2nd half player than 1st half player during his brief career, hitting .277/.342/.383/.725 before the All-Star break, and .312/.398/.447/.845 after. Hopefully he’ll start contributing soon, because all of the attitude and personality “quirks” are much harder to accept when he’s sucking.
Jessie Chavez = Dead Weight?
I know Jessie Chavez’s role on the team doesn’t seem that important. Getting good work from the 6th man in the bullpen is obviously not as crucial as getting production from your #3 hitter or ace starter. But consider that the Braves have played 45 games, and Chavez has appeared in 15 of them; only 1 fewer than Kris Medlen and Billy Wagner. I mean the guy’s pitched in a third of the games this year, so he’s not exactly the 3rd catcher on an AL team. The point is, he’s getting a lot of work out of the Braves’ pen, and it isn’t going well.
Chavez’s numbers overall aren’t terrible. Well, they’re pretty terrible, but they don’t reflect how bad he’s been lately. In 15 games, Chavez has posted a 7.71 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP over 21 innings, though he has struck out 21 batters with only 6 walks. However, in his last 8 appearances, Chavez has been horrible (his solid 3 innings against the Reds in the miracle comeback game being a rare exception). Over his last 8 outings, Chavez has given up 17 runs (all earned) on 19 hits and 5 walks over 11.2 innings for a 13.11 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP. Over those 11.2 innings Chavez has fanned 12, but he’s also yielded 8 doubles and 5 homers. There may not be a better replacement at the moment. Obviously there isn’t, considering that the Braves just brought up a similarly average pitcher to add to the back of the bullpen in Cristhian Martinez.
Final Thoughts
The Braves need to go ahead and win these last two games with the Marlins to keep the momentum they gained from the series wins over the Reds and Pirates. They should have the edge in the starting pitching match up in each of the next two games. It will be important to win this series and not slip up against the Pirates at home this weekend, because 13 of the next 17 games after that will be against division leaders and the red hot Dodgers. A home series with the Phillies next week starts that tough stretch. After 3 with the Phils, the Braves go on the road for 11 games in 11 days. That road trip does include 4 games against the D-Backs, but it starts with 4 against the Dodgers and ends with a 3 game series in Minnesota. When the Braves finally do come home they will have to deal with the Rays. So the Braves need to win at least 4 of their next 5 in order to be in good position to deal with that rough spot in the schedule.
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