One Month into the Season
Now that the Dust Has Settled
The losing streak seemed like it lasted a month, but in fact the Braves lost 9 games in 9 days. They went from 3 games over .500 and tied for 1st in the East, to 6 games under .500 and in last place in the East, 5 games out of 1st. During the losing skid the Braves were outscored 44-17. They were shut out 3 times, lost 3 1-run games, and lost by 5 or more runs 3 times. During the skid Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami went a combined 0-6.
All things considered, the Braves are fortunate to be 10-14, and even more fortunate to be only 4 games out of 1st. They are last in the East and tied for 12th in the NL but they are still only 6 games back of the best record in the League. That isn’t good, but considering that they lost 9 games in a row it isn’t as bad as it could be. The Braves caught a break by having a home series with the Astros mixed in with a couple of road trips. The Astros are the only team with a worse record than the Braves and we’ve been able to get back to back games from them. Sunday’s finale is actually a huge game because things will get tougher again next week.
Some Historical Perspective
Obviously the Braves are no longer the dominant team that they were in the 1990’s, but it’s still revealing to look at their recent history and compare it to the teams of the last 20 years. The Braves have not dug too deep a hole to recover. They fell back 5 games but they overcame large deficits a number of times during their streak of division titles. During the first 3 years of their streak of 14 straight division titles (1991-1993), the Braves made up at least 7 games in the standings each year. During the final 5 years of the streak (2001-2005), they made up at least 3.5 games each year and came back from at least 4.5 games out in 4 of those years. Falling into the cellar in the division isn’t a death blow either, as the Braves have been in last place early on in several division winning years.
However, the 9 game losing streak took away much of the Braves margin for error the rest of the way. They can’t afford to lose 7 of their next 10 or something like that. During their 14-year streak of division titles the Braves fell 6 games below .500 or worse twice, but they never dropped more than 7 games under .500. The Braves were 6 games under .500 at their lowest point last season. The Braves 8-14 record after 22 games was their worst since they were 7-15 in 1990, the year before the Miracle Season. Last year the Braves were 11-11 after 22 games. Their current record of 10-14 is their worst after 24 games since they were 10-14 in 2006. They never had as bad a record through 24 games during their streak of division titles as they do now. Still, the Braves are only 1 game off last season’s pace, as they were 11-13 after 24 games last year.
The length of the recent losing streak was unusual for a Bobby Cox team and does not bode well for the rest of the season. From 1991-2005, the Braves never lost more than 6 games in a row in any season. Over the last 3 seasons, the Braves never had a losing streak of more than 6 games. Only in 2006 did the Braves have a similar skid, losing 10 straight at one point that year. The Braves need to win the final game of the series with the Astros to win 3 games in a row for just the second time so far this year.
The Braves have already lost 4 games by 5 runs or more. That isn’t the worst the Braves have done over the last 20 years but it’s among the worst. From 1991-2000, the Braves never lost more than 3 of their first 24 games by 5+ runs. Over the last 6 years the Braves never lost more than 3 of their first 24 games by 5 runs. However, from 2001-2003 the Braves lost at least 5 of their first 24 games by 5 runs or more each season. So it may not mean much.
The most disturbing trends so far are all related to the Braves offense, or lack of offense. During the streak of 14 straight division titles, pitching excellence was the one constant that tied each year together. In 2006, the Braves had by far their worst pitching season in many years, and their streak of division titles finally came to an end. In the years since, quality pitching has returned to Atlanta but the Braves have not returned to the postseason. The reason for this is that the Braves hitting has not been up to snuff over the last 3-plus years. From 1991-2006, the Braves were never shutout more than 9 times in any season. Over the last 3 years, however, the Braves have been shutout at least 10 times each year, and this year they have already been shut out 5 times. Surely some of this is the result of a drop in offense league wide, but there’s no denying that the Braves have been a much weaker hitting team since the start of the 2007 season. This year’s Braves team may be the weakest hitting squad since the 1980’s. The Braves were held scoreless in 5 of their first 21 games for the first time since 1988. From 1989 through last season, the Braves were never shutout more than 3 times in their first 21 games in any year. The Braves have scored 4 runs or less in 18 of their first 24 games; the most through 24 games since they did it 19 times in 1988.
While the Braves are fundamentally flawed offensively, they could and should improve over the rest of the season. A number of the Braves regulars are hitting well, well below their career averages. But a few of those players are older and on the decline. And there’s no law that states that 6 or 7 players can’t have the worst year of their career all in the same season.
Oh Yeah, did I Mention the Braves Can’t Hit?
The Braves are currently 14th in the NL in runs scored per game; tied 14th in home runs; tied 12th in stolen bases; 14th in batting average; 15th in slugging; and 14th in OPS. There are only 16 teams in the NL. Amazingly, the Braves lead the National League in walks. To lead the League in walks and be 14th in runs and 14th in OPS is hard to do. One other note: only 2 NL teams have hit into more ground ball double plays than the Braves so far this season.
Chipper’s Absence
I was on a message board the other day and I got into an argument with several fans about Chipper Jones. The argument being made by these fans was that even when healthy Chipper is no longer good enough to bat 3rd. I was adamant that Chipper was still easily the best hitter on the team when healthy. That was about a week ago and I’m starting to wonder if perhaps Chipper isn’t good enough to be the team’s biggest bat anymore.
If Chipper really isn’t going to start hitting more like himself at some point the Braves are in big trouble, because there’s still no one obviously better on the team. Some of the fans I was arguing with contended that Chipper should no longer be hitting 3rd. I was dubious at first, but having a few more days to think it over, I’m starting to think that he may not be a #3 hitter any more. The problem is that there isn’t a better option on the team. If Chipper’s knowledge of the strike zone and ability to earn walks is the only remaining strength he has, then he should probably be hitting 1st or 2nd. But there’s no good candidate to replace Chipper in the #3 hole.
Chipper is currently hitting just .215, yet his OBP is .378. He has slugged just .369 with 2 homers and 4 doubles in 65 at bats. Those aren’t Chipper Jones numbers. If you take Chipper’s numbers last year and his numbers through 1 month this year he has played in 163 games. Over those 163 games Chipper has hit .259/.386/.423/.810 with 20 homers. He can still hit 3rd with those numbers, but if he continues to struggle as he has, it might be better to move him to 2nd or 5th and try Prado in the #3 spot. I just hope moving him out of the #3 spot doesn’t become an issue. Chipper is currently in a 1 for 18 slump.
Mac not Producing Either
Going back to that argument I was having with some fans on a message board about Chipper, when I said CJ was still easily the best hitter on the team, one fan came back with 3 guys he thought were currently better: Prado, Heyward, and McCann. Prado is currently the only Braves hitter having a great offensive season. But that doesn’t mean he’ll continue to hit that way. And Prado isn’t the power threat that Chipper is. Heyward has played 1 month and is still figuring things out. It’s really not worth discussing any further than that.
Brian McCann would be the 2nd best hitter on the team in my opinion. However, he isn’t getting it done so far this year. Mac is hitting .234/.378/.391/.769 with 2 homers and 4 doubles in 64 at bats. Mac should eventually get hot and start putting up his normal solid numbers, but I still don’t think he’s ready to take over for Chipper as the most dangerous bat in the lineup. Against lefties, Mac is just 4 for 18 this season. He is just 2 for 14 with RISP and 0 for 6 with RISP and 2 out. He is just 6 for his last 39 with 1 double and no homers.
Glaus Starting to Come Around?
For most of this season Troy Glaus has looked finished. He hasn’t been able to handle tough pitching and he hasn’t been able to jump on average pitching either. Recently, however, he has played better and perhaps it is a sign of things to come. Over his last 8 games, Glaus has gone 8 for 23 with 2 doubles, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 6 K, and only 1 GDP. He’s hit .348/.500/.435/.935 during those 8 games. Those are modest numbers and it’s a small sample size, but those numbers are still way better than his stats from earlier in the year. Glaus is crucial to the Braves success, as I’ve pointed out many times on this blog.
Leadoff Problems
Towards the end of the losing skid, Bobby Cox began using Yunel Escobar as the leadoff hitter, but an injury knocked Esco out of the lineup. Cox has since used Omar Infante or Nate McClouth as the leadoff hitter, depending on whether the opposing starter was left or right handed. While the injury to Escobar is bad news, I think it could be a blessing in disguise as long as he is able to come back quickly. You don’t want Escobar leading off. He’s not at all suited to that spot and he has had success hitting lower in the order. As for McClouth, he isn’t really suited for the #1 spot either, but I think he’s the best option we have at this point, at least against right handers. Infante is a very good option against left handers. McClouth has not gotten off to a good start this year but he’s doing a little better lately, going 5 for 19 over his last 6 games, with a double, a homer, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, and 1 SB in 2 attempts. Infante has started 5 of the team’s last 9 games and has gone 8 for 21 with 2 doubles, 2 RBI, and 1 SB.
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