It’s Still Early…But, Yes, You Should be Panicking
No Hope in Dope
We’re only 19 games into the season, and yet we’ve already seen enough of this Braves team to realize that whatever high hopes we might have had were (as usual) foolishly optimistic. It’s not that the Braves have dug themselves a hole that they can’t climb out of; it’s that there just isn’t much reason to believe that they will get drastically better. I mean it’s almost hopeless.
One of the great things about the baseball season is that its length allows for teams to stay “mathematically” in the race all year. Even if a team has 3 bad months, they still have 3 months left to make it up. The length of the season, however, can also be a bad thing if you realize early on that your team flat out sucks. This isn’t basketball or football where bad teams are “rewarded” with high draft picks. Baseball doesn’t really work that way. If you’re out of it in May there’s really nothing you can do but play the next few months and see what happens. For example, let’s say that Frank Wren ate some peyote and had a vision so clear that he woke up and knew without question that the Braves would not challenge for the postseason this year. It really wouldn’t do much good because his options would be limited until at least late June. Most teams will still feel they are in the race until late summer but most teams won’t be eager to make trades until that time. Few teams will be willing to trade future pieces for say, Billy Wagner, until late summer. During his short time as GM, Wren has made some early deals which have improved the team, but there’s probably not a deal he could make right now that would significantly alter things. We’ll just have to hope things get better. If they don’t, it’ll be a long summer.
It’s the Hitting
Nothing is going all that well for the Braves right now. The starting pitching hasn’t been as good as we’d hoped; the bullpen has been shaky in recent games; and the Braves have made a slew of costly mistakes in the field and on the bases recently. But forget all of that because it’s really irrelevant. I’m not saying that those things haven’t had an effect on the team’s record so far. It’s just that right now the hitting is 95% of the problem. Just take the recent 6 game slide that the Braves have been on. Yes, there have been some awful defensive mistakes and some poor performances by pitchers. But even with those things the Braves have only given up 23 runs over 6 games, an average of 3.83 runs allowed per game. That’s not bad. Last year the NL average for runs allowed per game was 4.49, and the Dodgers and Giants led the league averaging 3.77 runs allowed per game (the only 2 teams to average less than 3.83 runs allowed per game). The problem is that the Braves have scored only 9 total runs during the 6 game losing streak. Yes, 9 runs in 6 games. That’s an average of 1.50 runs scored per game. In case you’re wondering, the NL average for runs scored per game last year was 4.43, and no team averaged less than 3.94 runs per game (San Diego). So even if the Braves were doing just a poor job of hitting they might have gone 3-3 over the last 6 games. But they aren’t doing a poor job; they’re doing a horrendous job.
This Shouldn’t be a Shock
I came into this season hoping. I mean, I always come into the year hoping, but this season I was hoping specifically to be wrong. I did not think the Braves had done enough to improve the offense to be much better than they were last season. However, I thought the pitching would be good and I hoped that the offense would be decent enough to allow the team to compete for the Wild Card. After all, the Braves finished with 86 wins last year, and I like to think 90 wins gives you a shot. Right now it’s looking like I wasn’t wrong.
I’m not trying to say that I was the only one who saw this. It wasn’t hard to figure out that the Braves needed to score more runs this year, and that they really didn’t do anything this offseason that figured likely to dramatically improve the offense. But there have been some fairly new developments to go along with the same old problems the Braves have been having recently.
No Speed, No Power, No Runs
The inability to score runs without stringing together hits has been a problem for the Braves ever since Mark Teixeira was traded away late in the 2008 season. It has been glaringly obvious this year that the problem remains. The biggest problem is the lack of power. The homerun ball is important for every team but it’s even more important for the Braves. Why? Certainly Bobby Cox’s managerial style has to be mentioned here. Cox wasn’t the first manager to be accused of sitting around and waiting for the 3-run homer, but that is often the way that he manages the game. I don’t want to include Cox’s entire managerial career, for Cox certainly doesn’t manage today exactly the same way he did in the 80’s or even the early 90’s. But at least over the last 15 years or so Cox has used a fairly conservative brand of baseball, at least from the hitting side of things.
Understand, I’m not saying there are no exceptions; I’m talking on a general basis. Bobby’s teams normally don’t try to steal a lot of bases. He doesn’t hit and run often. For the most part, Bobby likes to leave things up to the batter to move runners and drive runs in. Part of it is definitely the cards he has to play with. You don’t want to try a lot of base stealing if you don’t have any capable base stealers, and you don’t want to put the hit and run on if you don’t have faith that the guy at the plate can put it in play. So Bobby seems to be inclined to put it in the hands of the batter and not risk getting guys thrown out on the base paths. In the past, criticism of this approach usually only popped up during the postseason, when the Braves would often struggle to score runs off the game’s top starters and relievers. Bobby’s approach of waiting for the home run generally worked during the regular season when the big bats could tee off against pitchers of the general population.
Actually, this approach really fit Bobby’s teams well most of the time, when there wasn’t always a lot of speed or even a lot of guys getting on base consistently, but there was power, occasionally all the way through the order. Also, for many years if the Braves got a couple of big hits a night it was enough because the pitching was the best in the league. In fact, the strategy of avoiding risks on the base paths and letting the batter go to work was really the correct strategy for any team from the late 90’s to the mid-2000’s. This is because the long ball had become so common place that it really didn’t make sense to try and steal bases unless you were very certain of being successful or extremely desperate for a run. In recent years, however, the Braves and the game itself have changed, and it doesn’t seem like Cox has been able to change his managing style (at least not enough to be successful).
The Braves are no longer a team that has pop throughout the order, and they don’t have a ton of power anywhere in the lineup. So waiting around for somebody to hit one out of the park just doesn’t work as well as it did in the past. In addition, while the Braves are certainly an above average pitching team, they are no longer truly elite, so the team needs to score more runs in order to win. And as mentioned before, the game as a whole has changed. While the power era isn’t going away quite as quickly as it came, there’s absolutely no arguing the fact that the homerun is significantly less commonplace than it was even a few years ago. It still doesn’t make sense to try and steal bases willy nilly, but it is more of a reasonable and useful tactic than it was in 2003. Even the hit and run, which I personally thought was going to become just about extinct 7 years ago, is starting to make sense again, as opening holes for batters and moving runners around the bases seems valuable.
One more quick point to make is that the lack of power isn’t just about a lack of homers, it’s about the lack of any sort of extra base hit. Doubles score fast runners from first and slow runners from second. They also put a guy in scoring position for the next batter. The Braves aren’t getting many doubles and triples either, so they really have to string together hits, and almost no team is going to be able to do that consistently.
The Need for Speed
I don’t want to make a big speech here about how important or unimportant speed is in the game of baseball. When I hear broadcasters opine about how great it is to see the speed game coming back to baseball, and how exciting the hit and run is when executed well, or how Jose Reyes is the most exciting player in baseball, I want to vomit. I can also understand why those who consider themselves on-board with modern baseball theory (sabermetrics, Baseball Prospectus, Money Ball, etc.) are inclined to downplay the importance of base stealing. However, I disagree with the idea that base stealing and just speed on the base paths in general is not relevant.
Having speed in the lineup for any team is good because it means it will be easier to score runs whenever the ball stays in the park. It can also help a team score a run without getting a hit or when they really need a run and they aren’t likely to get a homer or multiple hits in a row. The major point is that you don’t need speed to be a great run scoring team, but if you don’t have a lot of power, your lack of speed is going to be a bigger problem. The Braves’ lack of power is obvious, and it is also making their lack of speed a major issue.
Again, I’m not just talking about stealing bases, although the Braves certainly aren’t doing it much. The Braves are just not very fast, period. The contact hitters in the lineup aren’t particularly fast, so ground balls rarely turn into infield hits and once they get on base they aren’t base stealing threats. The bigger hitters in the lineup—or at least the guys who are supposed to be—are either not fast or incredibly slow. Chipper is a good base runner but he’s so worn down that he no longer qualifies as a speedy base runner. Escobar is remarkably slow for his position and style of play. He doesn’t get to first quickly and he doesn’t steal bases. The lack of speed of both Chipper and Escobar comes into play on ground balls, as they are more likely to turn into double plays. This is particularly important in Escobar’s case because he hits so many ground balls and line drives. And then there are the two slugs, Brian McCann and Troy Glaus. I don’t think enough is made of the importance of having guys in the middle of the order who are at least average runners. The guys in the middle of the order are expected to drive in runs but they are also expected to get on base. Especially in the case of the Braves lineup, the guys behind the 3 and 4 hitters are usually not going to have a lot of power, so if you don’t have guys who can score from second on most base hits or score from first on some doubles, it’s going to be a problem. The other problem is the double play. When McCann or Glaus hits a ground ball with a runner at first and less than two outs and it doesn’t get through, it’s almost always going to be a double play. This is a pretty big problem, especially because a lot of pitchers are just going to walk Chipper to get to McCann, or walk McCann to get to Glaus. If you add Escobar into the mix, you can basically say that when any of the 3 main hitters in the middle of the Atlanta lineup hits a ground ball with a runner on first and less than 2 outs, it’s almost always going to be a double play. That ain’t good.
A Workable Lineup
At this point, most baseball fans have come to understand the value of walks and getting on base. For those who think that the importance of walking has been overblown, the fact that the Braves are at the top of the league in walks might seem like a good example to support their argument. Actually, it doesn’t support that argument at all, but it does help to illustrate how pitchers are shutting down the Braves so far this season. Part of the importance of earning a walk is that by doing so you don’t make an out and you bring the next batter to the plate. If you don’t chase balls out of the zone you force a pitcher to work harder and throw more balls in the zone. The reason that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies are so tough offensively is that they don’t chase, they work the count, and they pass the baton to the next guy in line who does the same thing. However, it isn’t all about approach. These teams all have deep lineups full of players who are good at executing that approach, and they are all mostly dangerous hitters. Part of the high number of walks the Braves have amassed this season can be credited to hitters taking a smart approach to the plate. However, another major reason for all these walks is that pitchers are repeatedly choosing not to give certain players a chance of beating them and attacking other hitters who they feel they can get out. And it’s working.
Chipper is just not going to go after pitches that he can’t drive most of the time and he’s not going to go after pitches that aren’t close to the strike zone. Many pitchers are going to pitch around Chipper to work to Mac instead. There are several reasons for this. First off, regardless of recent numbers, Chipper is still the more feared hitter, and pitchers know that they stand a better chance of getting Mac to hit their pitch than they do with CJ. Second, some teams are going to be willing to put Chipper on if they need a double play and first base is open. It just makes more sense, because they know they have a decent chance of getting Mac to hit a ground ball for a double play. Finally, if it’s a left handed starter, or even more importantly a left handed reliever, Mac is easily the safer choice because Chipper is a switch hitter and a strong right handed hitter, and McCann is still a much less dangerous hitter when facing a lefty.
However, McCann’s walk numbers are even more eye opening than Chipper’s because Mac is by nature a more aggressive batter. Teams are continually avoiding McCann, in large part because Troy Glaus has not proven that he can hit power pitching anymore. To be honest, he’s basically proven that he can’t handle power pitching, or even average hard stuff. Chipper has drawn 13 walks this season which is a lot, but he always draws walks. The fact that Mac has already drawn 16 walks is fairly amazing. Right now he’s on pace to draw 143 walks. He has 216 walks in his career! The highest BB/PA he’s had in any season was .099 in 2008. His current BB/PA this season is .232. It’s even possible that Jason Heyward is being pitched around, although it’s probably more accurate to say that pitchers are going to make him prove that he can hit other pitches before they bother throwing him any fastballs over the plate. Heyward is swinging and missing a lot of those tougher pitches, and when he doesn’t offer at them, he’s walking. Pitchers don’t mind putting him on. Rather than give him something that he’s proven he can hit, they just try to set him up with junk, and if he winds up walking they go after the next guy who they know they can get out.
I believe that the reason Heyward has hit so much better with runners on base is that pitchers are challenging him more often in those spots than they are when there’s no one on. At least that’s my best guess. As for why Escobar hits so much better with runners on, I think--and I have thought for a long time--that comes down to focus. I think it’s obvious that Escobar struggles to keep his head in the game and I think part of the reason he does so much better with runners on base is that he concentrates more in those situations. It could also be that he’s an aggressive hitter and he’s more likely to get a good pitch to hit with runners on base because pitchers want to get ahead of him. But I think it’s more about focus. Whatever the reason, Heyward and Escobar are the only guys hitting with RISP right now. Some of the other players aren’t getting a chance much of the time because they get pitched around. And this is where you can clearly see how teams are avoiding some guys and attacking others. In 16 plate appearances with RISP, Chipper has walked 7 times. In 22 plate appearances with RISP, Mac has walked 9 times! That’s not usual for McCann. Jayson Heyward has walked an astounding 12 times in 22 plate appearances.
Now to the other end of the spectrum. Troy Glaus has had 29 plate appearances with RISP and is 5 for 25 with 3 walks. Melky Cabrera is 1 for 17 with 1 walk in 18 plate appearances. Matt Diaz is 3 for 12 with 1 walk in 13 plate appearances. Nate McLouth is 0 for 8 with 5 walks in 15 plate appearances, but a lot of that goes back to him batting 8th with the pitcher behind him. This is why I think the Braves poor hitting with RISP is more relevant than it might be for other teams. In general, I agree with the belief that over the long haul things even out and you are basically the same hitter with RISP that you are any other time. For the most part, I think timely hitting is more about luck than anything else. But with the Braves I think there is more to it because it’s so obvious that teams are consciously deciding who they are going to allow to beat them, and those guys aren’t beating anyone.
The Old Man and the Catcher
While Chipper Jones and Brian McCann are two of the few guys who actually are producing at the plate, they are part of the overall problem with the Braves offense. For years now, I have been saying that one of the major problems with the Atlanta lineup is that two of its main cogs are a great but aging slugger (who can’t stay on the field) and a slow catcher who is greatly neutralized by left handed pitchers. It’s an even bigger problem now because they aren’t just two of the main cogs, they are the only big hitters in the middle of the lineup, and if they don’t carry the team, the team won’t score runs most of the time. Relying so much on Chipper is a problem because when he isn’t in the lineup it goes from being an average lineup (at best) to being a weak lineup. People are quick to get on Chipper’s case, but the fact is that he is still, without question, the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. He’s also the only guy that resembles a true #3 hitter. And Chipper is no longer the power hitter he once was. This wouldn’t be as much of a problem if it weren’t for the fact that he still has more power than almost anyone on the team.
With Mac, the biggest problem is his position. Most #1 catchers rarely start more than around 120 to 125 games. So perhaps a quarter of the time he isn’t going to be playing. In addition, catchers wear down and they get banged up. There are going to be many times where Mac is able to play, but he won’t be 100% in terms of being able to hit. Also, Mac is very slow, so having him bat cleanup is an issue because of GDP’s and the fact that he’s basically going to go station to station. Finally, while Mac is decent against left handed pitching, he is nowhere near the threat he is against a righty. Also, tough left handers, especially specialists out of the pen, are often able to neutralize Mac completely. Last season Mac hit only .225 with 4 doubles and 4 homers in 180 at bats against lefties.
Too Many Holes, Too Many Square Pegs
I’m usually critical of Bobby Cox for being a bit too patient with players and sticking with the status quo for long periods of time even when it isn’t working. This season, however, I really don’t think you could make that claim. He has tried playing different guys; he has moved guys all over the lineup; he’s tried different combinations; he’s tried benching guys; he’s tried a number of different ways to find a lineup that works and nothing has worked. There are a few reasons for this. The biggest problem is that there simply aren’t enough better than average offensive players on the team. Despite some decent numbers at one time or another, McLouth, Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, and Omar Infante are basically average or slightly above average hitters. Not one of them has a lot of power or speed or the ability to get on base consistently. Making matters worse at the moment is that they’re all struggling at the same time. If they were all hot at the same time the Braves lineup might look really good right now. They should end up hitting better than they are right now but in the long run they probably aren’t going to be much better than average.
The other problem is that there are a lot of holes in the lineup right now and none of the guys who might be tried to fill those vacancies are good fits. There is not a prototypical leadoff man or even a solid leadoff man on this team. Bobby has tried a number of different players in that spot but nothing has worked. His latest attempt was to put Escobar at leadoff. This is probably the worst fit of all. For one thing, Escobar’s struggles with the bases empty have been consistent throughout his career. He’s also proven to be a very capable hitter with RISP, and in this lineup you can’t afford to take him away from one of the run producing spots. Furthermore, Escobar is the least patient hitter on the team. While he does walk every once in a while, he sees less pitches than anyone, and that’s not who you want leading off. Diaz and Cabrera are basically the same way. In my opinion, the best option is Nate McLouth, although his style is more suited for lower in the order as well. But it isn’t just the leadoff spot. I’ve already discussed why Mac is not exactly suited for hitting cleanup, but that’s the least of our worries.
The biggest problem right now is that Troy Glaus is basically a fixture in the middle of the lineup. He’s going to be batting in a key run producing spot no matter what. And right now he’s a major weak spot and teams are taking advantage of that weakness. Everyone knew that the Braves needed to go out and get a legitimate power hitter for the middle of the lineup this offseason. When it became clear that their answer was going to be Troy Glaus, I knew immediately that it was unlikely to work. I now believe that the chances of it working well are almost none. The real problem, as I stated going into this season, is that it has to work well. That’s how the Braves set it up. Troy Glaus had to be the answer, because nobody else is coming and there’s no one else currently on the roster capable of filling that spot. The only possible exception is Jayson Heyward, but again, it just isn’t a good fit. For one thing, Heyward is a rookie, and 99.9% of rookies, no matter how good they are, will not be able to produce consistently throughout the year in the heart of the lineup. We’ve already seen him struggle against the type of pitching that he simply didn’t see in the minors. He’s striking out a lot, and putting him in the middle of the order right now and asking him to protect Chipper and Mac could have a negative effect on him. He’s really best off hitting down in the order. He’s a good guy to have as a threat towards the back end of the lineup. Furthermore, he’s left handed, and the Braves need that big bat in the middle of the order to be a right handed hitter who can’t be neutralized by a lefty. So Troy Glaus has to fill that role and it doesn’t look like he’s physically capable of doing so. I said before the start of the year that if this thing worked out it could really improve the lineup, but that if it didn’t work the Braves would be in serious trouble. That’s why I thought it was so perilous to set up a situation like that when it appeared highly unlikely (at least to me) that it would end up working out.
Worries about the Team and the Future
In my opinion, it’s not simply a matter of this particular edition of the Braves being flawed. Many of the current problems have been present for years now. In fact, I’ve felt for years that the Braves lineup was flawed to the point that it would take more than one or two minor moves to make a big improvement. There are major flaws in the makeup of the entire team. Beyond even that, I have come to believe that the way this team is being constructed on a yearly and day to day basis is just wrong.
I’ve already covered a lot of this but there are other major issues. Some of these things go back before the end of the division title streak. Starting with about 2004, the Braves stopped trying to improve, and instead began focusing on “fielding a competitive team.” During the offseasons that have followed, it has always been pretty clear what the weaknesses were and where they needed to get better. What has happened year in and year out is that the team ends up taking the stopper out of one hole and plugging up another. In this way, management usually ends up “fielding a competitive team” but they’ve never come close to fielding a serious contender. At the same time, they haven’t committed to starting over, so they haven’t been able to rebuild either.
Throughout most of this time, even when trying to fill a hole while allowing a strength to become a weakness, the Braves have attempted to fill those holes on the cheap. There have been occasional moments where management has spent money or has at least tried to spend money, but even then I feel they have gone about it the wrong way. In the common baseball era, the idea that it is not wise to pay for pitching is something I believe in strongly, especially for teams who aren’t trying to be among the top spending teams in the league. Pitching is just too unpredictable and the chance of injury too great to go out and sign guys to huge, multi-year contracts. A team is really better off developing their own pitching talent, something the Braves have had mixed results with over the years.
On the other hand, the one commodity it seems safe to spend money on is power. Indeed, teams pretty much have to pay for power. One reason for this is that players develop into power hitters over the years, so a power hitter becoming a free agent in his prime will many times still have his peak years ahead of him. Pitchers on the other hand, cannot be counted on to sustain their level of success over a long period of time. If you just go back and look at the top free agent signings for starting pitchers there are at least as many busts as there are booms. Power hitters, on the other hand, usually produce consistently year in and year out.
The Braves have gone against both of these rules of thumb in recent years. In 2008, the Braves traded away Mark Teixeira at the deadline, and for the first time in years they were aggressive in the free agent market the following offseason. At times Wren acted like he really didn’t care who he got, he just had some money and he wanted to spend it. In the end, Wren ended up giving a bunch of money to a pair of starting pitchers. One of them, Derek Lowe, had proven to be a fairly consistent, solid starting pitcher, but the Braves gave him #1 starter money; $60 million over 4 years. At the time, I have to admit that I was not upset by this deal. The biggest reason was that at the time I allowed myself to believe that ownership was going to start trying harder to win. The talk that offseason was different from the years before when it seemed like the GM’s hands were tied. Basically, I was just glad to see the Braves sign a big free agent like that, which they hadn’t done in years. And I thought it was just part of the plan. I was also relieved that the Braves had been turned down by AJ Burnett, and had given that money instead to a guy who did not have a history of injury problems or a history of not being as good as his stuff said he should be. However, as time went on, even as Lowe started off pitching well for the Braves in 2009, I realized that we had given a lot of money to a guy who wasn’t an ace and who might not have a reason to be motivated playing in a town where there is virtually no pressure. Obviously, my opinion of that deal now is very different. In retrospect I feel stupid for not realizing what a boner it was at the time.
But there was another pitcher signed to a big money contract that offseason. This one I also felt okay about at the time, though I can’t feel too bad about that. When a team pays that much money for a guy that you’ve never seen, you just sort of assume that he must be pretty good. Well, it turns out that the Braves made a major reach. They signed a pitcher from Japan, who was 34 years old, to a 3 year deal worth $23 million. Even if he had been the best pitcher in the Japanese League and only 25, it’s unlikely that he would have been worth the kind of money the Braves paid to get him. Instead, KK has turned out to be a below average, back end of the rotation pitcher with nothing to offer. He would have no use as a relief pitcher and he can’t go past 6 innings as a starter. He’s rarely better than okay and he’s often worse than that.
In hindsight, the Braves would have been much better off giving Tex the money they gave KK and Lowe, and bringing Hanson and Medlin into the rotation to go with JJ and Vazquez and Hudson. Shoot, they could have even let Glavine and Smoltz hang around as long as they could. Of course Tex may not have taken their money even if the Braves had offered as much as New York ended up giving him, but the point is that right now a huge amount of money is tied up in a couple of pitchers who are 4th and 5th starters at best. Lowe and Kawakami could be replaced by guys making less than $1 million combined and there would be no drop off. If you take things further, the Braves wouldn’t have had to trade Vazquez to New York this past offseason, and they may even have been able to land one of the other medium sized free agent hitters.
It’s Still only April
Maybe in a few months we’ll look back and I’ll seem silly for overreacting about a 6 game skid in April. There are, after all, 5 full months left to go in the regular season. So that’s good. I guess. Unless we really are this bad.
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