Thoughts After 15 Games
It’s still early but we’ve already learned a lot about this Braves team. Actually, we haven’t learned so much as re-learned a lot about this team. This team seems very similar to the Braves teams of the last few years. Here are some of my thoughts on what we’ve seen so far.
Good so far but a little lucky. 8-7 after 15 games and only 2 games behind the Phillies and Cardinals for best record in the NL is nothing to cry about. The schedule hasn’t been easy either. The Braves have played series against the Cubs, Giants, Rockies and Phillies—all teams with winning records last season who are also expected to be among the contenders this season. The Braves other opponent, San Diego, was awful last season and will likely lose at least 90 games this year, but at the moment the Padres are 9-6. So again, being a game over .500 at this point is nothing to feel bad about.
At the same time, if you’re looking at things objectively, you have to admit that the Braves are a little fortunate to be 8-7. If you look at games that could have swung either way, the Braves “best case scenario” would likely be 9-6 at this point. “Worst case scenario” would probably be 5-10. You could even go as far as 4-11 if you include the season opener, when the Braves got a huge break on a blown call at a critical point in the game when the Cubs appeared poised to take the lead late. The Braves could/should have won the opener in San Fran when Billy Wagner made 1 bad pitch in the 9th and blew a 2 run lead. But 3 of the Braves 8 wins have come in games which they trailed by at least 1 run after 7 innings. On the one hand there is something very positive to take from that. It’s always fun to be a fan of a team with a knack for coming from behind late and winning games in dramatic fashion. But another way to look at it would be to concede that they’re unlikely to continue to pullout such wins on a regular basis.
The Braves have scored 67 runs and allowed 67 runs. They’re on pace to win around 86 games, the same number of wins as they had last season. If the Braves end the year with an equal amount of runs scored and runs allowed, they’ll need a lot of luck to do much better than win 86 games.
Same old offensive problems. The Braves are having trouble scoring runs. The occasional scoring explosion makes the numbers look a little better than the situation really is. The problems are very familiar. The lineup is prone to cold stretches because of holes in the lineup and the inability to manufacture runs. The Braves offense is overly reliant on the homerun, and this is a major problem because the Braves don’t have all that much power. They are having to rely on 2 out hits, and if they don’t get those key hits and they don’t hit homeruns, they don’t score. That’s a problem, especially against tough pitchers.
Another problem—again, one that isn’t new—is that the Braves lineup has more than one soft spot. John Smoltz’ performance as co-announcer has been shaky at best so far, but he made a great point during Thursday night’s game when he talked about the effect that the weak spots in an order can have on a team. If there is a major hole in the batting order it changes the way that pitchers work to the rest of the lineup. If runners aren’t on base when the best hitters come to the plate it makes those hitters much less dangerous. If the guys hitting behind the best hitters are no threat then pitchers won’t bother to mess around with those dangerous bats. This is a problem the Braves are encountering right now.
The leadoff spot is a major hole. As expected, the Braves are struggling to find someone to do even a decent job holding down the top spot in the batting order. As I always say before broaching this subject, if you don’t understand why the performance of the first batter in the lineup matters more than the performance of the #8 hitter in the lineup just skip to the next part of this article. It’s not worth explaining the obvious over and over. Now, back to the point, the Braves weakness at the leadoff spot, which was obvious going into the season, has been even worse than expected. It’s been so bad during the first 15 games that even those who brushed off concerns about the lack of a leadoff man before the start of the season can no longer deny the problem. Braves 1st place hitters are a combined 6 for 64 on the season with just 7 walks and 13 strikeouts. The Braves have gotten a .181 OBP out of the leadoff spot. That’s not going to work out well.
The 3 players that Bobby Cox has tried in the leadoff spot so far—Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Diaz—have all started the season poorly, regardless of their position in the order. McLouth is hitting .171 with a .333 OBP; Cabrera is hitting .125 with a .250 OBP; and Diaz is hitting .167 with a .167 OBP. There’s no simple solution to this problem. There are major drawbacks to putting any of those players in the leadoff spot. McLouth has put up some decent numbers in his career; he has experience in the leadoff spot; and he is a solid base stealer. But McLouth’s style as a batter is not fit for the top spot in the lineup. He seems to have more value batting later in the order where his lack of walks and tendency to strike out don’t hurt as much. He has gap power but his batting style isn’t likely to produce a consistently high on-base percentage, which is most important for the #1 hitter in the lineup. It’s a similar situation with Diaz. Matty has also put up some decent numbers in his career. I actually think Diaz is a better offensive player than McLouth overall. But his batting style is even less fitting of a leadoff hitter than McLouth’s is. Like McLouth, Diaz is going to be streaky, and that isn’t what you want out of the leadoff spot. When Matty is hot he can literally be the best hitter in the game over short stretches, but his cold stretches are also likely to be worse than most. More importantly, Diaz’ “see it and hit it” style is just not well suited for the leadoff spot where taking pitches, working the count, and getting on base consistently are key responsibilities. Then there is Cabrera. With Melky it’s fairly simple: the guy just isn’t very good. People can continue to dispute this fact all they want but it’s really not even up for debate. On almost any day, Cabrera is going to be the weakest hitter in the lineup. The leadoff man is going to get the most plate appearances, and it doesn’t take a genius to comprehend that you don’t want your weakest hitter coming to the plate most often. In my opinion this is the Braves biggest issue at this point.
The Glaus experiment is not going well. The Braves signed Troy Glaus to replace Adam LaRoche as the everyday first baseman and be the big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. At the time of the signing and throughout the offseason, management gave off an air of total confidence that this move would be a success. I was surprised how easily many Braves fans accepted the team’s stance and believed that the idea of Glaus returning to his mid-2000’s form was something other than a long shot. Many of those fans are no doubt starting to question those beliefs. It would also be fair to say that a large number of the fans in attendance at Turner Field—many of whom likely have little or no knowledge of Troy Glaus’ career prior to becoming a Brave—have already formed the opinion that Glaus isn’t any good. Who can blame them? Remember: fans in Atlanta are among the least knowledgeable in the country, but they aren’t stupid. And if you didn’t know anything about Glaus’ past and you just watched him during the first 15 games this season, you wouldn’t think much of him.
To be fair, Glaus has had a couple of very bright moments, including a 2 run blast with 2 down in the 9th on Tuesday night that made the heroics of Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth possible. However, the bright spots have been few and far between for Glaus. He has played in all 15 games, hitting in the heart of the lineup, and he is now just 9 for 53 on the season with 2 extra base hits (both homers), 4 walks, and 16 strikeouts. He is batting .170/.241/.283/.524. With very few exceptions, Glaus has been unable to catch-up to hard stuff, even when the ball is right down the middle and at the knees. Making matters worse, Glaus is very slow and has already hit into 3 double plays. And you always have to include the fact that Glaus is out of position at first base. While he hasn’t been terrible defensively, Glaus has botched several routine plays and is without question a liability in the field. Once again, there is no good or simple solution to this problem.
Lowe doesn’t look any different. There was a lot of talk during the offseason about Derek Lowe recommitting himself and making major changes that would get him back to being one of the better starters in the NL. I’ve come to ignore such talk, but when Lowe looked great during spring training I started to believe that perhaps he would have a bounce back year. It didn’t take long to blow those thoughts out of the atmosphere. Through 4 starts, Lowe has been just about as bad as he was last year. Pay no attention to his 3-1 record (again, if you don’t understand why won-loss record is not really meaningful, just move on to the next section); Lowe has been the benefit of great run support. In his 4 starts, Lowe has pitched just 22.1 innings and has allowed 15 runs on 22 hits and 14 walks. He has a totally unacceptable 1.61 WHIP and a 5.24 ERA. Batters are hitting .262 off of him. Whatever changes Lowe made, they don’t appear to have had any positive impact on his ability to not suck.
The Phillies are better than us. It didn’t take losing 2 of 3 at home to the Phils to realize that they are still the stronger team, but it did go a long way in crushing any hopes that we might have had that things were different. The Phillies lineup is by far the toughest in the National League. They are deep and powerful and they work pitchers in just the way that the Yanks and Sox do over in the AL. The Phillies are an elite defensive team. And while the Braves may have a better starting rotation from front to back—and even that is debatable—the Phillies have a true ace in Roy Halladay and their starting staff is anything but a weak spot. Remember that the Phillies are without 2 starting pitchers and Jimmy Rollins at the moment. The Philly bullpen is the only thing in the team’s makeup that resembles a question mark. The Braves are going to have a very hard time unseating the Phils atop the NL East.
It isn’t all bad. There have been some good signs for the Braves so far. The bullpen has been very solid for the most part during the first 15 games. After an injury scare a couple of weeks ago, Chipper Jones has started to get rolling. And of course there’s Jason Heyward. Hopefully the Braves can hang around and at some point find answers to a few of these problems. It is still very, very early in this season.
Good so far but a little lucky. 8-7 after 15 games and only 2 games behind the Phillies and Cardinals for best record in the NL is nothing to cry about. The schedule hasn’t been easy either. The Braves have played series against the Cubs, Giants, Rockies and Phillies—all teams with winning records last season who are also expected to be among the contenders this season. The Braves other opponent, San Diego, was awful last season and will likely lose at least 90 games this year, but at the moment the Padres are 9-6. So again, being a game over .500 at this point is nothing to feel bad about.
At the same time, if you’re looking at things objectively, you have to admit that the Braves are a little fortunate to be 8-7. If you look at games that could have swung either way, the Braves “best case scenario” would likely be 9-6 at this point. “Worst case scenario” would probably be 5-10. You could even go as far as 4-11 if you include the season opener, when the Braves got a huge break on a blown call at a critical point in the game when the Cubs appeared poised to take the lead late. The Braves could/should have won the opener in San Fran when Billy Wagner made 1 bad pitch in the 9th and blew a 2 run lead. But 3 of the Braves 8 wins have come in games which they trailed by at least 1 run after 7 innings. On the one hand there is something very positive to take from that. It’s always fun to be a fan of a team with a knack for coming from behind late and winning games in dramatic fashion. But another way to look at it would be to concede that they’re unlikely to continue to pullout such wins on a regular basis.
The Braves have scored 67 runs and allowed 67 runs. They’re on pace to win around 86 games, the same number of wins as they had last season. If the Braves end the year with an equal amount of runs scored and runs allowed, they’ll need a lot of luck to do much better than win 86 games.
Same old offensive problems. The Braves are having trouble scoring runs. The occasional scoring explosion makes the numbers look a little better than the situation really is. The problems are very familiar. The lineup is prone to cold stretches because of holes in the lineup and the inability to manufacture runs. The Braves offense is overly reliant on the homerun, and this is a major problem because the Braves don’t have all that much power. They are having to rely on 2 out hits, and if they don’t get those key hits and they don’t hit homeruns, they don’t score. That’s a problem, especially against tough pitchers.
Another problem—again, one that isn’t new—is that the Braves lineup has more than one soft spot. John Smoltz’ performance as co-announcer has been shaky at best so far, but he made a great point during Thursday night’s game when he talked about the effect that the weak spots in an order can have on a team. If there is a major hole in the batting order it changes the way that pitchers work to the rest of the lineup. If runners aren’t on base when the best hitters come to the plate it makes those hitters much less dangerous. If the guys hitting behind the best hitters are no threat then pitchers won’t bother to mess around with those dangerous bats. This is a problem the Braves are encountering right now.
The leadoff spot is a major hole. As expected, the Braves are struggling to find someone to do even a decent job holding down the top spot in the batting order. As I always say before broaching this subject, if you don’t understand why the performance of the first batter in the lineup matters more than the performance of the #8 hitter in the lineup just skip to the next part of this article. It’s not worth explaining the obvious over and over. Now, back to the point, the Braves weakness at the leadoff spot, which was obvious going into the season, has been even worse than expected. It’s been so bad during the first 15 games that even those who brushed off concerns about the lack of a leadoff man before the start of the season can no longer deny the problem. Braves 1st place hitters are a combined 6 for 64 on the season with just 7 walks and 13 strikeouts. The Braves have gotten a .181 OBP out of the leadoff spot. That’s not going to work out well.
The 3 players that Bobby Cox has tried in the leadoff spot so far—Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera, and Matt Diaz—have all started the season poorly, regardless of their position in the order. McLouth is hitting .171 with a .333 OBP; Cabrera is hitting .125 with a .250 OBP; and Diaz is hitting .167 with a .167 OBP. There’s no simple solution to this problem. There are major drawbacks to putting any of those players in the leadoff spot. McLouth has put up some decent numbers in his career; he has experience in the leadoff spot; and he is a solid base stealer. But McLouth’s style as a batter is not fit for the top spot in the lineup. He seems to have more value batting later in the order where his lack of walks and tendency to strike out don’t hurt as much. He has gap power but his batting style isn’t likely to produce a consistently high on-base percentage, which is most important for the #1 hitter in the lineup. It’s a similar situation with Diaz. Matty has also put up some decent numbers in his career. I actually think Diaz is a better offensive player than McLouth overall. But his batting style is even less fitting of a leadoff hitter than McLouth’s is. Like McLouth, Diaz is going to be streaky, and that isn’t what you want out of the leadoff spot. When Matty is hot he can literally be the best hitter in the game over short stretches, but his cold stretches are also likely to be worse than most. More importantly, Diaz’ “see it and hit it” style is just not well suited for the leadoff spot where taking pitches, working the count, and getting on base consistently are key responsibilities. Then there is Cabrera. With Melky it’s fairly simple: the guy just isn’t very good. People can continue to dispute this fact all they want but it’s really not even up for debate. On almost any day, Cabrera is going to be the weakest hitter in the lineup. The leadoff man is going to get the most plate appearances, and it doesn’t take a genius to comprehend that you don’t want your weakest hitter coming to the plate most often. In my opinion this is the Braves biggest issue at this point.
The Glaus experiment is not going well. The Braves signed Troy Glaus to replace Adam LaRoche as the everyday first baseman and be the big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. At the time of the signing and throughout the offseason, management gave off an air of total confidence that this move would be a success. I was surprised how easily many Braves fans accepted the team’s stance and believed that the idea of Glaus returning to his mid-2000’s form was something other than a long shot. Many of those fans are no doubt starting to question those beliefs. It would also be fair to say that a large number of the fans in attendance at Turner Field—many of whom likely have little or no knowledge of Troy Glaus’ career prior to becoming a Brave—have already formed the opinion that Glaus isn’t any good. Who can blame them? Remember: fans in Atlanta are among the least knowledgeable in the country, but they aren’t stupid. And if you didn’t know anything about Glaus’ past and you just watched him during the first 15 games this season, you wouldn’t think much of him.
To be fair, Glaus has had a couple of very bright moments, including a 2 run blast with 2 down in the 9th on Tuesday night that made the heroics of Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth possible. However, the bright spots have been few and far between for Glaus. He has played in all 15 games, hitting in the heart of the lineup, and he is now just 9 for 53 on the season with 2 extra base hits (both homers), 4 walks, and 16 strikeouts. He is batting .170/.241/.283/.524. With very few exceptions, Glaus has been unable to catch-up to hard stuff, even when the ball is right down the middle and at the knees. Making matters worse, Glaus is very slow and has already hit into 3 double plays. And you always have to include the fact that Glaus is out of position at first base. While he hasn’t been terrible defensively, Glaus has botched several routine plays and is without question a liability in the field. Once again, there is no good or simple solution to this problem.
Lowe doesn’t look any different. There was a lot of talk during the offseason about Derek Lowe recommitting himself and making major changes that would get him back to being one of the better starters in the NL. I’ve come to ignore such talk, but when Lowe looked great during spring training I started to believe that perhaps he would have a bounce back year. It didn’t take long to blow those thoughts out of the atmosphere. Through 4 starts, Lowe has been just about as bad as he was last year. Pay no attention to his 3-1 record (again, if you don’t understand why won-loss record is not really meaningful, just move on to the next section); Lowe has been the benefit of great run support. In his 4 starts, Lowe has pitched just 22.1 innings and has allowed 15 runs on 22 hits and 14 walks. He has a totally unacceptable 1.61 WHIP and a 5.24 ERA. Batters are hitting .262 off of him. Whatever changes Lowe made, they don’t appear to have had any positive impact on his ability to not suck.
The Phillies are better than us. It didn’t take losing 2 of 3 at home to the Phils to realize that they are still the stronger team, but it did go a long way in crushing any hopes that we might have had that things were different. The Phillies lineup is by far the toughest in the National League. They are deep and powerful and they work pitchers in just the way that the Yanks and Sox do over in the AL. The Phillies are an elite defensive team. And while the Braves may have a better starting rotation from front to back—and even that is debatable—the Phillies have a true ace in Roy Halladay and their starting staff is anything but a weak spot. Remember that the Phillies are without 2 starting pitchers and Jimmy Rollins at the moment. The Philly bullpen is the only thing in the team’s makeup that resembles a question mark. The Braves are going to have a very hard time unseating the Phils atop the NL East.
It isn’t all bad. There have been some good signs for the Braves so far. The bullpen has been very solid for the most part during the first 15 games. After an injury scare a couple of weeks ago, Chipper Jones has started to get rolling. And of course there’s Jason Heyward. Hopefully the Braves can hang around and at some point find answers to a few of these problems. It is still very, very early in this season.
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