The Baseball Blog: 2010 Season Predictions

Ready or Not, Baseball’s Back

Do you realize that the Yankees and Red Sox will be playing a game that counts a full 24 hours before a team is crowned the 2010 College Basketball National Champion? Baseball snuck up on me this year (in spite of the fact that I’m in a dozen fantasy baseball leagues), perhaps because I’m working a full time job this year as opposed to being a full time “student.” But I also think baseball has been less of a topic around the country this winter/early spring. Let’s face it: spring training may be both necessary and a worthwhile tradition, but it’s pretty dull and boring. It was especially boring this spring and it ought to be every year.

There are two main reasons that baseball has been an afterthought over the last month. One reason is that other than March Madness the Tiger Woods story has dominated everything in sports over the last few months. However, the most important factor has been the lack of any new steroids revelations for the media to blow up. Also, the media mania over PEDs has finally (mercilessly) begun to wane a bit in general. It’s been a welcome break for fans like me, who wish the “drug problem” in baseball had never been discovered. I suspect it’s even been a nice change for those who did care about steroid use in the game. I mean, when was the last time that the biggest (or most covered) story going into opening day had nothing to do with performance enhancing drugs? It’s been a while. I intend to enjoy it because it may not last. Anyway, here are some predictions and comments.


2010 MLB Predictions

Predicted number of wins and losses are exact.
(#)- Rank by win-loss record within League.
[#]- Rank by win-loss record in MLB.

American League

East

1. Yankees (1) [1] 101-61: I picked the Yankees to win the World Series almost every year of the last decade and they finally did it last year. They always have the best team on paper and after they hadn’t won in a while I just figured sooner or later it was going to happen. No champion has repeated since the Yanks won 3 in a row from 98-00, but considering that they didn’t win again until 2009, despite having the best team on paper every year, I’d say they are still due for another a title. They’re loaded this year, of course, and despite being older and losing some key players they still have the best team on paper. They don’t have many weaknesses and they are strong in all areas. I’ll be the first person to admit that "most expensive roster" does not always equal "best roster." Plus, with 3 rounds in the postseason the best team is not going to win it all every year. No, having by far the biggest payroll doesn't guarantee the Yankees the championship every year. It's not even close to that. But at this point it’s hard to see the Yankees ever being less than good for even one season. They have now put together 17 consecutive seasons with at least a .540 winning percentage. Over that time they have won 11 division titles, finished 2nd 4 times, and finished 3rd once, winning the wild card 3 times for 14 total playoff appearances out of 16 postseasons (strike in 1994). They’ve won over 100 games in 5 seasons over that time, going 21-9 in 30 playoff series, winning 7 pennants and 5 world championships. They’re pretty much always the safest bet.

2. Red Sox (2) [3] 99-63: Don’t ever believe that the whole thing about Red Sox fans being negative and thinking the sky is falling is just an old stereotype. It’s remarkably true and it didn’t go away just because the Sox won 2 titles in 4 years. And it’s not just the fans. Because the fans are so apt to go ape over potential problems, the media can’t help but speak in dire terms about any little bump in the road. “Oh no! Jason Bay is gone! Jason Varitek is finished! Mike Lowell is on his last leg! And what if Big Papi struggles again? Not to mention the fact that Dice-K sucks!!! Boo-hoo!” The truth is that there’s no issue here. The Red Sox are one of the 3 elite teams in the game right now and they are arguably as good on paper as both the Yankees and Phillies. They are strong in all areas and this year the rotation should be better than it has been in years. The Sox are probably the safest bet other than the Yankees. They’ve had a winning record and finished in the top 3 in the AL East in 14 of the last 15 years (.481 winning percentage and 4th place in 1997). Amazingly, they’ve won only 2 division titles over that time (and they haven’t had a single 100 win season) but they’ve finished 2nd in the division 10 times, winning 7 wild cards. They’ve made the playoffs 9 times in the last 15 years, going 9-7 in 16 playoff series and winning 2 titles. They’ve reached the postseason in 6 of the last 7 years and they’ve won at least 93 games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. They could easily win it all again this year. But let’s hope not.

3. Rays (4) [T-8] 88-74: These guys were known as the Devil Rays for the first 10 seasons of their existence and they never won more than 70 games or finished higher than 4th in any season. They take away the “Devil” and they’ve now posted back to back winning seasons while finishing in the top 3 of the AL East each year. And though it still seems hard to believe, they really did win the best division in baseball and make the World Series just 2 seasons ago. The Rays would be the best team in some divisions and no worse than the 2nd best team in any other division. Unfortunately, they are clearly the 3rd best team in the AL East. The bullpen should be better this year and the lineup is strong, but how good will the rotation be?

4. Orioles (11) [24] 68-94: Baltimore can’t seem to get out of this rut. After playing in back to back ALCS in 1996 and 1997, the Orioles have put together 12 consecutive losing seasons, finishing 4th or worse in the East in 11 of those 12 years. What’s got to be truly depressing for real Orioles fans is the fact that they actually seem to be going the wrong way. They won 78 games and finished 3rd in 2004 but their win total has decreased each of the last 5 years, going from 78 to 74 wins, to 70, to 69, to 68, and finally to 64 last year, finishing last in the East in each of the last 2 seasons. I don’t think things are going to be drastically different this season. The lineup is decent, the bullpen should be slightly better, and the rotation contains talent. But there are just too many question marks, particularly in the pitching department.

5. Blue Jays (12) [25] 66-96: From 1983 through 1993 the Blue Jays posted 11 consecutive winning seasons, claiming 5 division titles, and finishing off the run with back to back world championships in 1992 and 1993. Since that time they have largely fallen off the map. Considering the fact that they have not been back to the postseason since then and only finished 2nd in the East once in the last 16 years, the Jays have had surprisingly few awful seasons. They were on a streak of 3 straight winning seasons until they went 75-87 last year. In fact, in the last 12 years they’ve won at least 80 games and finished 3rd or better 9 times. Unfortunately, I think that could change this year. The Blue Jays have tried to win but puzzling underperformances by key players and injuries kept Toronto from ever breaking through. Whatever window of opportunity they did have, it is now closed with Roy Halladay traded to Philly. The Jays’ lineup has the potential to be very strong but the pitching staff is riddled with holes and question marks.

Central

1. Tigers (5) [T-11] 87-75: Detroit had finished under .500 in their last 12 seasons when they came out of nowhere to win 95 games and reach the playoffs in 2006. After losing the ALDS opener they won 3 in a row over the Yankees and then swept the A’s in the ALCS to advance to the World Series where they would face the 83 win St. Louis Cardinals, one of the weakest WS teams of all time. It looked like the Tigers’ dream season would end in storybook fashion before their truly horrendous performance in the Fall Classic, during which they made 8 errors, got outscored 22-11, and lost in 5 games despite scoring first in 3 of the 4 losses. In a sense they have never really recovered from that disappointing and humiliating end to their season. The next season they were 57-36 and 2 games up in the Central on July 19th but they went 16-29 over their next 45 games to fall 7 games out, eventually finishing with 88 wins but out of the playoffs. Going into 2008 they were picked by many to win it all but they started the year 0-7 and never recovered, ending the year 74-88. Then last year they were 75-61 and up 7 games in the AL Central with just 26 games to play but they proceeded to go 11-15 the rest of the way and wound up tied with the Twins. In the 1-game playoff at the Metrodome they blew an early 3-0 lead and then blew a 5-4 lead in the 10th and went on to lose 6-5 in 12, ending their season.

My biggest concern for the Tigers at this point is their mental state. There are no great teams in the AL Central this year (there rarely are) but the Twins always end up finding a way to win the thing even when Detroit appears to be the best team in the division. I would have picked the Twins to edge out the Tigers again this season if Joe Nathan had not blown out his elbow.

2. White Sox (T-6) [T-14] 86-76: The White Sox are one of the few teams that I could see being a surprise division winner this year. It’s pretty amazing how relatively little coverage the Chi-Sox get considering that they are a pro franchise located in Chicago. And it’s not like they’ve been a dead team over the last quarter century. They have 13 winning seasons over the last 20 years, and they’ve won at least 79 games in 17 of 20 years, with only 1 last place finish during that time. They have won 4 division titles in that stretch (also finishing 1st in strike shortened 1994) and a world championship. The White Sox haven't had back to back losing seasons since the late 90’s so we shouldn’t be too surprised if they bounce back this year. True, some of the key offensive cogs are gone or at the end of their careers, but I think their rotation has the potential to be very good. The bullpen is usually solid and they should score enough runs.

3. Twins (8) [16] 85-77: The Twins have been one of the most pesky and resilient teams in sports over the last decade. From 1993 through 2000 the Twins had 8 straight losing seasons, finishing 4th or worst each year, and for a time it appeared that they could possibly be eliminated by contraction along with the Montreal Expos. But in 2001 the Twins surprised everyone by winning 85 games and Tom Kelly was able to retire on a very upbeat note. TK’s understudy Ron Gardenhire took over in 2002 with big shoes to fill. Remarkably, while Gardenhire has not matched the postseason success achieved by Kelly, he has already surpassed him in terms of regular season accomplishments. The Twins have won the AL Central 5 times in Gardenhire’s 8 years at the helm, despite the fact that the club is constantly among the cheapest in pro sports. The Twins have finished the season with a winning record in 8 of the last 9 years, never winning fewer than 79 games during that stretch, while finishing in the top 3 in the Central each season. Unfortunately the Twins are just 1-5 in playoff series during that time. The good news for the Twins is that ownership finally spent some coin and locked franchise player Joe Mauer up for many years to come. With the team moving into a new stadium, perhaps they will be able to use the increased revenue to be more of a player in terms of adding pieces during the stretch run. I really believe that if the Twins had ever been able to add another great starting pitcher for the postseason they would have had more success in the ALDS but ownership never wanted to add to payroll.

But in my opinion the move from the Metrodome to the new open air ballpark will hurt the Twins in the long run. For one, much of the money made from opening the new park will go to pay Mauer’s very long and very expensive contract. I believe ownership knew that if they were unable to keep Mauer they would suffer a tremendous loss both on and off the field. With Mauer now in place and the new park set to open I expect ownership will go back to their tight budget ways, knowing that the stadium and the iconic hometown hero will be enough to create revenue for years to come. However, the Twins--more than any other team--have been able to win consistently in spite of the overwhelming financial disadvantages.

The real reason I expect the move to the new park to have a negative impact on the team’s on field success is that in leaving the Metrodome behind they are giving up what I believe to be one of the ten greatest home field advantages in modern pro sports. No park was as difficult for opposing teams to play in. The noise; the ceiling; the odd lighting; these things wreaked havoc on visiting players. Furthermore, the Twins developed a style of play that took great advantage of the surface and the dimensions of the Metrodome and they built the roster around it. I believe a key to their success in spite of a lack of funds was that the power element was not as big of a deal at the Metrodome. Other clubs that could afford to sign the top sluggers did not have as big of an advantage over them in that place. Conversely, other parts of the game that became less valuable across the league in general (small ball for lack of a better term) were more valuable inside the Metrodome. I believe this home field edge will be taken away from the team and it could have a major impact on things. It wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened to a Minnesota team. Ironically, it was the move from Metropolitan Stadium to the Metrodome that took away an enormous home field advantage for the Minnesota Vikings, particularly come playoff time.

I probably still would have picked the Twins to win the Central again this year had it not been for the injury to Joe Nathan. I just think that will be a major blow and difficult to overcome. They always have strong relief pitching but Nathan’s absence will affect the entire pen. They are underrated offensively and they have some talent in the rotation. And of course they are those pesky Twins; “piranhas” as Ozzie Guillen once called them. They could very well get it done again.

4. Royals (13) [T-27] 62-100: Man, the Twins sure make the Royals look awful. Kansas City’s team has now gone 24 years without a postseason appearance. They have not won more than 84 games in any season over the last 20 years. They have now finished with a losing record in 6 straight seasons and 14 of the last 15. They have lost at least 93 games in 9 of their last 13 seasons. They have lost 100 games or more 4 times over the last 8 years. They won’t be any good this season either. They have Zach Greinke and that’s about it. In contrast to the Twins, the Royals have failed to develop talent from within their own system and they foolishly continue to sign over-the-hill veterans to idiotic contracts. Those overpaid, washed up veterans then take away playing time from young players, thereby stunting their development. The Royals are nowhere near climbing out of the state they’ve been in almost constantly for the last 15 years.

5. Indians (14) [30] 59-103: The Indians are hard to figure out. They were able to rebuild much faster than I had anticipated, and yet, they got only 1 postseason appearance out of that team and here they are rebuilding again. On paper, they honestly look like the worst team in baseball to me. They are poor across the board.

West

1. Angels (3) [4] 95-67: The Angels are one of the great organizations in the MLB today and they don’t appear to be going anywhere soon. Last year I thought they might be down a bit but they were excellent again and they will be this year as well. In Mike Scioscia's 10 seasons as manager of the Angels they have had 8 winning seasons, won 5 divisions, made 6 playoff appearances and won a world championship. They have finished with a winning record in 6 straight years and they have won the AL West in 5 of the last 6 seasons. They’ll be strong in all areas again this season but I think they are just a notch below the Yanks, the Sox, and the Phillies.

2. Rangers (T-6) [T-14] 86-76: The Rangers finished with a winning record for just the 2nd time in the last 10 years last season. They appear to be a team on the rise. The pitching problem still exists but it seems to be getting much better. They have some young arms that they will need to come through if they want to win the West this season. They’ll also have to stay much healthier. They had very bad luck with injuries last year and the problem has continued this spring, with Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler banged up already.

3. Mariners (9) [17] 84-78: In 2007 the Mariners were a surprising 88-74 and they had people expecting big things in 2008. They lost 101 games that year. Last season they were a surprising 85-77 and many people are expecting big things this year. I’m a little gun shy. What’s interesting is that Vegas seems to like the Mariners and that’s not always the case when it comes to teams with a lot of hype going into the year. Vegas tends to stay with the status quo. I’ve been dead wrong about the Mariners 3 years in a row, hence my conservative prediction.

4. Athletics (10) [T-21] 73-89: Did you know that it’s been 52 years since the A’s have alternated winning and losing seasons over a 3 year period? I don’t know, maybe it’s just me but that seems kind of weird. It doesn’t do much for us going into this season because the A’s are currently on a streak of 3 consecutive losing seasons. But if they do surprise us with a winning season this year then they’ll probably have a winning record the year after. Then again, maybe history means nothing. Either way, unless the A’s have a team ERA of 3.00 I don’t think we have to worry about them winning 82 games this year.

National League

East

1. Phillies (1) [2] 100-62: After the Braves hex over the NL East was lifted it looked for a while like the Mets would take their place as perennial division champ. Instead, the Phillies have become the dominant team in the NL East. And their status as king of the division can’t be denied anymore, as they’ve now won 3 straight titles and are a safe bet to win at least 1 more. They won the WS in 2008 and last year they became the first NL team to win back to back pennants since the Braves in the mid-90’s. They’ve now won at least 80 games in 9 straight seasons and had a winning record in 8 of the last 9 years. They are easily the best team in the NL on paper and are among the favorites to win the whole thing.

2. Braves (T-2) [T-5] 89-73: I try to be objective when making these picks but it’s always hard. This might be a little optimistic but if the Braves have good luck with injuries and close games they could be right in the thick of the playoff race.

3. Marlins (T-5) [T-8] 88-74: The Marlins won’t sneak up on anybody in the NL East. They’re a very dangerous team and if they end up winning the Wild Card, lookout! It’s happened twice before and both times they won the World Series.

4. Mets (10) [19] 82-80: Again, I try to be objective with these predictions but what usually happens with the Mets is that I subconsciously overrate them in the hope that I will end up jinxing them. In the MLB there are the so-called “small market teams” who never spend any money; there are the Yanks and Red Sox; and then there is everyone else. All of the teams in the middle have spent money and busted at least once or twice but the Mets have done it more than anyone. Last year I still think they would have won at least 85 games or so if they hadn’t had the single worst season in terms of injuries that I have seen in my lifetime. This year even if they do have better luck with injuries (and it’s already going badly again) I still think they’re going to struggle to be more than a .500 club. They aren’t strong in any area and the entire organization is pretty much a mess.

5. Nationals (15) [T-27] 62-100: They’re gradually getting closer to being slightly better than terrible but I don’t think the Gonats are there quite yet.

Central

1. Cardinals (T-2) [T-5] 89-73: Tony LaRussa is my least favorite manager of all-time but I’m now utterly convinced that he is the best in baseball. I know it doesn’t sit well with a lot of baseball fans when people say that the postseason has become a crapshoot but it’s getting harder for people to deny. LaRussa’s career is further evidence that it’s really a toss-up once you get to the playoffs. LaRussa’s managing style is annoying because it slows the game down but it’s based on solid reasoning and I truly believe it makes a difference over the course of a 162 game season. And yet it hasn’t seemed to help him (much) in the postseason. LaRussa’s teams have made 13 postseasons, many times (if not most times) going in as the favorite to win the championship, but he has just 2 WS rings. Last year was actually a rarity, as LaRussa’s team was eliminated by a club with a better regular season record. In his previous 12 trips to the playoffs, LaRussa’s teams had lost to a team with a worse regular season record 8 times. Ironically, none of LaRussa’s 4 100+ win teams have won the title, while his 83 win 2006 St. Louis team did. LaRussa is both a great regular season manager and a great in-game manager and yet his teams still don’t seem to have an advantage in the postseason.

In the 14 years that LaRussa has been in charge in St. Louis the Cards have had 11 winning seasons, won 7 division titles, and made the playoffs 8 times. They’ve played in 6 NLCS, won 2 pennants, and won 1 championship. The Cards are the favorites to win the Central again this year. They did what they had to this offseason and resigned Matt Holliday. LaRussa will always make the most of what he has but in order to get to the World Series I think they needed a legitimate slugger to go along with Albert Pujols.

2. Cubs (T-7) [T-11] 87-75: The long drought goes on for those lovable (so I’ve heard) losers from the Windy City. It used to make sense that the Cubs never won: they always sucked and nobody seemed to care or try to make things different. Now that the Cubs are actually making an asserted effort to be consistently good it’s interesting that they still can’t seem to get it right. They have finished with a winning record the last 3 years but they definitely took a step back last year. Suddenly you take a look at their roster and you wonder if perhaps their window has already closed. They just don’t have many guys you can really count on to perform. The talent is there so they could bounce back. That’s not normally the way things work out for the Cubbies though. At least Milton Bradley is gone.

3. Brewers (9) [18] 83-79: The song remains the same: lots of hitting, not much pitching.

4. Reds (12) [T-21] 73-89: The Reds have now had 9 consecutive losing seasons and they’ve missed the postseason 14 years in a row. That’s unlikely to end this season. They have major question marks everywhere. Injuries have held them back but the cheap payroll hasn’t helped things either.

5. Astros (13) [23] 70-92: You used to be able to count on the Astros to make a run at the playoffs but they’ve now missed the postseason 4 years in a row and I don’t think they’ll be able to turn things around without starting over. They have lots of weak spots and question marks on their roster. Key players like Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee are getting older, struggling to stay healthy, and declining in productivity. And there’s no help coming from within the organization.

6. Pirates (14) [26] 63-99: The Royals of the National League.

West

1. Rockies (T-2) [T-5] 89-73: I haven’t had good luck with predicting the future of the Rockies lately. They look solid and it seems like the changes brought on by the humidor are here to stay.

2. Dodgers (T-5) [T-8] 88-74: I really don’t know what to expect from LA this year. They have a lot of talent all over the place. If their younger players perform up to their potential they might challenge the Phillies for the pennant. I could also see them being just another good team struggling to reach the postseason. I can tell you this much for sure: Manny will play a major role one way or the other.

3. Giants (T-7) [T-11] 87-75: The Giants have an excellent pitching staff and they are well built for their home park and their division. However, I still think their offense is lacking.

4. Diamond Backs (11) [20] 81-81: The D-Backs have screwed me over several times in recent years. They looked to be a team on the rise a few years ago but some of their young players haven’t blossomed and their ace has been stuck on the shelf. Then there is the bullpen which is a total mess. I think they’ll be average.

5. Padres (16) [29] 60-102: Suddenly the Padres are the worst team in the NL on paper and among the worst in baseball. The offense is pathetic and now they’ve lost Peavy. If they don’t lose at least 100 games I’ll be surprised.

American League Playoffs

ALDS
Yankees over Tigers: 3-1
Red Sox over Angels: 3-1

ALCS
Yankees over Red Sox: 4-3

National League Playoffs

NLDS
Phillies over Rockies: 3-2
Cardinals over Braves: 3-1

NLCS
Phillies over Cardinals: 4-2

World Series
Yankees over Phillies: 4-3

Awards and Leaders (not going out on too many limbs here)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Alex Rodríguez
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
NL ROY: Jason Heyward
AL ROY: Wade Davis
NL Manager of the Year: Tony LaRussa
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi
NL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Jonathan Broxton
AL Rolaids Reliever of the Year: Mariano Rivera
NLCS MVP: Roy Halladay
ALCS MVP: Mark Teixeira
World Series MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL Batting Champ: Albert Pujols
AL Batting Champ: Joe Mauer
NL Home Run King: Ryan Howard
AL Home Run King: Mark Teixeira
NL Win Leader: Roy Halladay
AL Win Leader: CC Sabathia
NL Save Leader: Francisco Cordero
AL Save Leader: Mariano Rivera